ColoradoEagle

If those two are in play, I hope the AAC is also on the phone. NIU has produced some good football upsets for years now, and Toledo has been generally higher end in basketball. Full member in AAC maybe vs. football only in MWC?

I'm not talking about being dissolved today. That's not going to happen. I'm talking about members agreeing to dissolve the conference once they've been paid in 2026. At that point there would be no exit fee, because it would literally just be SJSU left. I think, at worst, there's a cash settlement with SJSU and/or whoever else may be left out.

Maybe. The top 5 programs in the new Pac have NET rankings of 44 or better. Top 5 in the AAC have 104 or better. But if you compare the average ranking of the top 7 in each conference, it's 80 vs. 90, so not that much difference. What really kills the AAC is the bottom half of the conference is 00's Sun Belt level bad. To top it off, we as a conference schedule such a breezy OOC schedule most years that there's just nowhere to go but down once conference play starts. Not sure what the rest of the conference is doing this year, but we're definitely doing our part to drag down that average with scheduling.

I agree to disagree on the MWC folding. Having one less conference to compete with for the playoffs, and one less avenue for FCS to continue moving up to FBS seems like a good thing in the long run. 12 is too many for the Pac, because they're trying to maximize value. I know you disagree, but I don't see their media partner wanting to add another 50% yearly just to add four from the AAC. Much more likely is AAC/ESPN working on something that works for the 3-4 remaining MWC schools not named SJSU. Just to be clear, I don't see any of these teams joining the AAC until 2027 or 2028. And the MWC contract is almost up. If you think they're going to secure $5-6m per school for the leftovers of that conference plus whoever they can snatch from CUSA/FCS, you're nuts.

You're asserting that UTSA, for example, could only muster a half share in the AAC and yesterday was told the Pac would only kick in 10% of their exit fee, but today the Pac would be willing to fund their entire exit and their value would magically rise from $3.5m to $15m in a TV contract? I get it. When you're looking at realignment, everything looks like a stroke of genius move that would maximize contracts, but that just isn't the real world. The AAC has way more metro markets than the Pac does, but we're not renegotiating the contract with ESPN up to $10-15m per school. I honestly think that number is pie in the sky even for the Pac, but apparently they have someone (maybe?) willing to back them in that range, and I doubt it's based on 12 schools from the leaks we've seen. My money is on they have interest, probably from CBS or Apple, but this move is more to jettison the bottom quarter of the league than it is to attain a huge payday.

The last thing the new Pac needs is more mouths to feed. The media deal they're looking for is $10-15m per school. Does their media partner (who's obviously not ESPN) have the ability and desire to kick in $40-60m annually for those four? I have my doubts.

Beefing up the top of the league? Don't threaten me with a good time.

It all depends on what ESPN wants. If UNLV goes to the Pac, it's not a terrible idea to pick up UNM/Wyoming, AFA, and Nevada. If possible, balance it out with JMU in the East. Will ESPN pay at least half shares for each is the question. Taking 3 from the MWC would mean no one has to pay any exit fees to the MWC, because the conference would be dissolved by departing members. *I put UNM/Wyoming, because it's basically pick your poison. UNM is traditionally awful at football, but decent to good at basketball. Exact opposite for Wyoming. Maybe slight edge to Wyoming for not sucking as hard at basketball as UNM does at football.

More than likely it's just delayed. Their media contract runs through mid-2026. They'll stick around and see if they like the new contract, otherwise put in their two years notice. $10m bought their temporary loyalty.

If the new Pac-12 pulls from AAC, I'd expect it to either be UTSA/UNT for Texas, or Memphis/Tulane for quality. Could easily see a scenario where the AAC pursues New Mexico, Air Force, UNLV, and Nevada regardless of what the Pac-12 does.