North Texas Patient Tested for Ebola Virus

[oldguystudent]

But now I really, REALLY want to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Oeb8nhNJOU

[FirefightnRick]

Meanwhile, Vincent Racaniello, Professor of Microbiology & Immunology in the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Columbia University, says:

In one corner, a political science major and U.N. appointee, who has no medical background, and has been on the job for a whopping 24 days. Who qualifies his statements by saying things like "incredibly unlikely".

Meanwhile, the guy who has literally written the book on how viruses work says that change to airborne transmission is unprecedented in human virus history.

Replace the words "airborne transmission" with "climate change", and tell me how seriously you'd take the U.N. guy's assessment.

I don't really care one way or the other how bad it gets because it's already bad enough and that's how I'm approaching it since I'm the most likely here to get thrown up on in the back of an ambulance. It it wasn't as bad as I think it is those treating the victims wouldn't be wearing bio suits with breathing masks.

But since it's presence here in the US was unprecedented I guess anything is possible and nothing should be taken lightly or be dismissed concerning it.

Rick

[Army of Dad]

I didn't mean for it to be combative... This whole thing can be pretty terrifying if you let it get to you.

But, I'm about as worried that Ebola will mutate to become airborne (in the medical sense, not in the literal sense that coughing or sneezing sprays infectious droplets) as I am that it will become sentient, get elected president, and start a nuclear war with Russia. Both are conceivable in the most theoretical, "but, WHAT IF??" sense... But no human transmitted virus has done either in the past, and from a stochastics perspective... I'm not betting on either. But, I'm more of a Bayesian than a frequentist, so I wouldn't be so bold as to say either is absolutely impossible.

Ebola is plenty scary as it is. Some non-doctor idiot doesn't need to make it scarier just because he's working for the UN and coordinated earthquake and tsunami response efforts before.

No, but viruses don't usually mutate unless when they are jumping between host species. So it's improbable that it will mutate into an airborne virus during human to human transmission, but if/when it jumps to another species it may mutate. That mutation may or may not make it more easily transmissible or more deadly, any mutation could just as likely make it less dangerous. Using bird flu as an example, it was always present, but in jumping between birds and humans it mutated and became more dangerous.

[Coffee and TV]

Perspective

Ebola 2014 Hand, Foot and Mouth disease 2011 Swine Flu 2009 Bird Flu 2005 SARS 2003 Reminder: You'll probably die of heart disease

— Corrosive Baker (@Corrosivebaker)

October 2, 2014

[That_Guy_Arlo]

Then I guess we'll see you down at Presbyterian Hospital to volunteer to help out, right?

Rick

I'm not really understanding the logic of this post.

So, because I'm not afraid of an outbreak, I should be completely comfortable working around people who are infected? I mean, I don't think there will be an outbreak of smallpox anytime soon, but I wouldn't really care to be around anyone infected with it.

[UNTFan23]

Life imitating art?

Edited October 2, 2014 by UNTFan23

[UNTFan23]

I don't really care one way or the other how bad it gets because it's already bad enough and that's how I'm approaching it since I'm the most likely here to get thrown up on in the back of an ambulance. It it wasn't as bad as I think it is those treating the victims wouldn't be wearing bio suits with breathing masks.

But since it's presence here in the US was unprecedented I guess anything is possible and nothing should be taken lightly or be dismissed concerning it.

Rick

The only way to have prevented the disease from making it to the US was to ban travel to/from countries with the outbreak. Best of luck getting that done as it's still easy to hop-scotch from country to country and still get into the US. The globalization of Intl travel makes preventing the spread infectious diseases like Ebola almost unpreventable. Best hope is a quick diagnosis and quarantine of possibly infected patients.

[FirefightnRick]

The only way to have prevented the disease from making it to the US was to ban travel to/from countries with the outbreak. Best of luck getting that done as it's still easy to hop-scotch from country to country and still get into the US. The globalization of Intl travel makes preventing the spread infectious diseases like Ebola almost unpreventable. Best hope is a quick diagnosis and quarantine of possibly infected

Agree. Especially when we are practically inviting those from 3rd world countries to enter unchecked more than ever before.

Rick

Edited October 2, 2014 by FirefightnRick

[GreenBat]

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/30/6875459/calm-down-youre-not-going-to-get-ebola

[TheTastyGreek]

Agree. Especially when we are practically inviting those from 3rd world countries to come unchecked more than ever before.

Rick

You realize that isn't actually true, right? That the foreign-born percentage of the population now is actually lower than it was for all of the late 1800s and early 1900s? And that more than 10% of our foreign-born population post-2000 comes from India and China, largely on H1-B or similar visas (Doctors, computer programmers, etc.)?

And, I mean, SURELY you aren't saying that we have more people of African descent entering America now than ever before, right?

[FirefightnRick]

"Mishandling of U.S. Ebola patient prompts CDC alert to hospitals"

http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-patient-mishap-prompts-cdc-alert-to-hospitals-205334851.html

Rick

[FirefightnRick]

You realize that isn't actually true, right? That the foreign-born percentage of the population now is actually lower than it was for all of the late 1800s and early 1900s? And that more than 10% of our foreign-born population post-2000 comes from India and China, largely on H1-B or similar visas (Doctors, computer programmers, etc.)?

And, I mean, SURELY you aren't saying that we have more people of African descent entering America now than ever before, right?

There's no way to know. It's a guess at best how many undocumented people are entering every day.

Rick

[FirefightnRick]

"From the Border, Whistleblowin in the Wind

When Ron Zermeno warned of the secret relocation of illegal immigrants, CBP disciplined him."

http://m.nationalreview.com/article/389232/border-whistleblowin-wind-ryan-lovelace

In a whistleblower disclosure document obtained by National Review Online, the agent alleges that the federal government knowingly transported illegal immigrants to facilities that were unequipped to process them; disregarded repeated warnings from a Border Patrol agent about the public-health risks posed by the immigrants, many of whom were suffering from infectious diseases; rejected multiple offers of assistance from local officials; and suspended law-enforcement operations at part of Americas southern border while denying a congressmans repeated requests for information about the governments plan to process the immigrants and about the startling events unfolding in his district.

Rick

[KingDL1]

Are you guys reading this? Our government in action what a cluster. You understand Ebola is the big bad daddy virus the one that spurred all the movies.

Here is something from the Times, it just gets better and better.



Delay in Dallas Ebola Cleanup as Workers Balk at Task
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/dallas-ebola-case-thomas-duncan-contacts.html?_r=0

So no clean up crews have even been to the Apartment complex yet I guess maybe this weekend. I figure the rain we had today may move the vomit in the parking lot around. If this wasn't Ebola it would make a good comedy. Guys I know you don't think this but we are a hair away from this thing going exponentially bad.

[FirefightnRick]

Holy shit! Is that the head of county health in the suit walking out of the apartment?

Rick

[KingDL1]

Holy shit! Is that the head of county health in the suit walking out of the apartment?

Rick

Yes can you believe this shit?

[KingDL1]

This is sobering

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/31/world/africa/ebola-virus-outbreak-qa.html

[FirefightnRick]

This is sobering

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/31/world/africa/ebola-virus-outbreak-qa.html

Health care workers are at high risk, especially if they have not been properly equipped with protective gear or correctly trained to use and decontaminate it.

The virus can survive on surfaces, so any object contaminated with bodily fluids, like a latex glove or a hypodermic needle, may spread the disease.

Damn!

Rick

Edited October 3, 2014 by FirefightnRick

[Cerebus]

[Coffee and TV]

My biggest question in all of this is when it all blows over and there's maybe 2 infected people, what will you guys have to be afraid of next?

[MeanGreenTexan]

My biggest question in all of this is when it all blows over and there's maybe 2 infected people, what will you guys have to be afraid of next?

Benford.

[Cerebus]

I don't think most people understand how viruses mutate. Ebola is an RNA virus, so primitive that it is questioned whether they qualify as being "alive" or not. RNA viruses have no error checking upon replication. Every mutation is completely random. Every single person who gets Ebola has a trillion or so slightly different copies of it in him.

Now, at first glance it might make sense to assume that becoming much much deadlier is just a matter of time, but the reality is much more complex.

Imagine taking a fairly complex machine, like FFR's beloved classic Ford Mustang. Now take an anti tank rifle and shoot a random hole in it. That's in effect what the RNA virus random mutations do. There is a chance that the hole doesn't really do anything. There is a pretty good chance that the hole destroys the car. A really large percentage of RNA mutation are incompatible with life. Billions and billions of fails. That is why the viruses only chance of survival is to overtake a cells production area and create as many copies as possible. This is why Ebola epidemics have died out in Africa before.

Now, there is an astronomical chance that you might create some sort of "speed hole" that changes the airflow of the Mustang and makes it go a little faster. Of course, to get from Ebola's current stage to something airborne would need a chain of miracle shots so long that the experts say it is impossible. So really, avoid the fluids of people who are sick. Only those who are showing symptoms are contagious.

Ebola. Don't touch your friends.

[Cerebus]

One more thing: Texas isn't West Africa. They lack the basic infrastructure to do such things as isolate sick patients and WASH THEIR HANDS. Also, if you'll notice in the above video the first image says "Ebola is real, let's agree to disagree." WHY?

Because West Africa is a place with a really high level of scientific ignorance. Many people don't believe in germ theory. Evil spirits cause disease. Western doctors are evil and want to damn your relatives to a lonely death when they tell you not to touch their dead bodies. There were riots at one of the largest hospitals in the area because people were convinced that Ebola was a scheme to steal the blood of their relatives and sell it to Europeans. The army had to be called in to shoot into the crowd, repeatedly. Attacks on smaller clinics succeeded and Ebola patients were freed.

You'll notice that several Ebola patients were taken to the Atlanta area earlier and now months later it doesn't look like the opening episode of The Walking Dead. Why? Because the above stuff doesn't happen here.

[Censored by Laurie]

And, I mean, SURELY you aren't saying that we have more people of African descent entering America now than ever before, right?

Well...I mean...maybe by choice.

[CMJ]

I am more concerned than some and not as scared as others. The chicken littles could be right, but it's unlikely. However, I am not one to dismiss this as a microscopically low threat either. Going airborne yes, but even regular sneezing or whatever can cause major issues given the 3 week gestation phase. Ever been in line somewhere and have someone sneeze on you for instance? Thousands of people could potentially have this and not know it yet.