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Spread vs Indiana

TheColonyEagle

By TheColonyEagle
in Mean Green Football

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VideoEagle Mentor

VideoEagle

Posted
Posted

It means money is being bet on IU. Not surprising as they really need to beat us to have get to six wins far more than we need to beat them. Combine with Dajon being as yet unproven, NT being a historically poor road team in the last decade and the fact La Tech and UT, two less than powerful teams blew us out. I can see why a lot of bettors would pick IU.

Remember the spread is supposed to even out the amount of money bet and has nothing to do with the outcome of the game. It's the perceived outcome of the game.

TheColonyEagle Grand Master

TheColonyEagle

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Maybe. Maybe not. Lots of unknowns with this team, even after 4 weeks of football.

Yep. I have absolutely no idea what to expect on Saturday.

We could get blown out, lose a close one, win a close one, or blow them out.

I have no idea at this point.

Edited by TheColonyEagle
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aztecskin Experienced

aztecskin

Posted
Posted

I think we can beat Indiana.

On the day, anything can happen. It will be interesting to see how we play on the road. We haven't had a road game since Texas, when the defense played well and the offense didn't.

But we have Dajon.

I don't know how good that makes us but I mean, if we thought we'd give Texas a game I think we should be okay with IU. They aren't as talented as Texas and arguably about as talented as any CUSA team we've faced so I'm feeling comfortable. They might have more incentive to beat us and that may make all the difference. A desperate team and what not.

UNT90 Newbie

UNT90

Posted
Posted (edited)

this is why I turn to gmg. the in-depth analysis and insight.

It is what it is.

I could give you a completely meaningless breakdown of DW's performance against a bottom of the barrel FCS, but that still doesn't answer any of the questions facing this team.

We start getting answers on Saturday.

Edited by UNT90
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SilverEagle Mentor

SilverEagle

Posted
Posted

It is what it is.

I could give you a completely meaningless breakdown of DW's performance against a bottom of the barrel FCS, but that still doesn't answer any of the questions facing this team.

We start getting answers on Saturday.

Yep

Cerebus Experienced

Cerebus

Posted
Posted

Saying we struggle on the road OOC is an understatement. The last time we beat a non conf opponent was against Ball State in 2009.

Before that, the most recent win OOC was against Texas Tech in 1999. Before that? Texas Tech in 1997.

Add in the win at Northern Illinois in 1996, and those are the four non conference games we have won on the road since our return to FBS.

Three wins in the 90s, one in the 00s, none so far in the 10s... I guess KRAM will say the good thing is we are overdue :)

  • Upvote 1
VideoEagle Mentor

VideoEagle

Posted
Posted

We are certainly due to win an OOC away game. Indiana has not shown themselves to be very strong, at least not with any consistency so we certainly have a shot. But we have yet to show any consistency either and we could get beat by three or more touchdowns.

The folks in Vegas think you have to give us an additional 14 points to get bettors without an emotional tie to NT to be willing to put their money on us. And those folks made enough money to build some very big hotels by being correct on what it takes to make people place a bet.

In the end, the Vegas goal is just to get money bet, not to predict the game. As long as equal money is bet on both sides, they don't care who wins.

untjim1995 Grand Master

untjim1995

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I think the thing that will be most interesting to me is just to see if Dajon can continue to improve as a FBS starting QB. Even if we lose, its just important to feel as if we have found someone who can play QB at a level that is better than your local Texas HS JV squad. A loss here doesn't hurt us too much, as long as we still see Dajon making progress. If he is terrible, then we still have to see what he can do against UAB. After that, if Dajon is bad, you'll see Greer and McNulty get a chance against Southern Miss at home. I still feel like a 7-8 win team is possible, but I also now believe that a 4 win season is possible, too.

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Aldo Rookie

Aldo

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Posted

We have the means to win (or should I say the williams to win...). On offense, it's their running game that is worth a damn. And we have shown we can defend the run against the Longhorns' duo and against La Tech (the two better teams). If we can keep them at 200 yards rushing it's a win. Longhorns put up 163 rushing yards on us, followed by 98 from La Tech. We are pretty stingy on that front.

DW had a healthy 13 ypa against Nicholls, which bodes well against Indiana's soft secondary. On paper we have a shot.

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Mean_Green09 Newbie

Mean_Green09

Posted
Posted

We have the means to win (or should I say the williams to win...). On offense, it's their running game that is worth a damn. And we have shown we can defend the run against the Longhorns' duo and against La Tech (the two better teams). If we can keep them at 200 yards rushing it's a win. Longhorns put up 163 rushing yards on us, followed by 98 from La Tech. We are pretty stingy on that front.

DW had a healthy 13 ypa against Nicholls, which bodes well against Indiana's soft secondary. On paper we have a shot.

Their running game is much better that Texas or La Tech. Their OL is better than both of those teams. Those RB's at UT are a bit overrated. They havent put up the numbers I thought they would.

Coleman is a stud. You give him any type of open space and he is gone.

greenminer Grand Master

greenminer

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Their running game is much better that Texas or La Tech. Their OL is better than both of those teams. Those RB's at UT are a bit overrated. They havent put up the numbers I thought they would.

Coleman is a stud. You give him any type of open space and he is gone.

I think our run defense can tighten up if our offense is even slightly better than UT/LaTech.

QB play is such a wild card, factoring into other aspects of our game.

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Aldo Rookie

Aldo

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Coleman is a stud. You give him any type of open space and he is gone.

Well yeah. Being one of the best rushers in the nation, it was an intentional understatement.

TIgreen01 Veteran

TIgreen01

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Their running game is much better that Texas or La Tech. Their OL is better than both of those teams. Those RB's at UT are a bit overrated. They havent put up the numbers I thought they would.

Coleman is a stud. You give him any type of open space and he is gone.

This. I watched them against Bowling Green, but missed their other games. I think we better be ready to put up 35+ points to have a shot at winning this game. They have better skill players on offense than any team we've faced, thus far.

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rws69 Proficient

rws69

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Count me among those with no idea what to expect. Indiana is 2-2 with wins against FCS Indiana State and Missouri. Obviously that Missouri result concerns us. Was it a fluke? Indiana lost to Bowling Green (3-2 with other two wins against FCS VMI and FCS UMass) and Maryland (4-1 with other wins against FCS James Madison, 2-3 South Florida, and 2-2 Syracuse). UNT offense will need to be at least half as potent as it was against Nicholls, and the defense cannot let Coleman have a big day. I see this better than the current betting spread, but do not know how much.

Looking at the other games on the schedule, the biggest concerns before the season were probably Rice and UTSA, both currently at 1-3. Get past Indiana, and it is not a difficult stretch to see us winning out.

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GOMG2013 Newbie

GOMG2013

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This. I watched them against Bowling Green, but missed their other games. I think we better be ready to put up 35+ points to have a shot at winning this game. They have better skill players on offense than any team we've faced, thus far.

I watched a few games. I dont think they have better skill players than Texas or latech. Coleman is nice. We contain him, we should slow that offense down. The qb is average and is not mobile. We do well against qbs that cant run.

My only concern is the play calls skladany makes. He did not adjust against la tech. We will key on Coleman like we did against UT, Dixon, gurley, rice etc. if we are terrified of the draw like we were against latech and buyers is playing 10 yards off and we are covering a slot with a lb, then we will allow that average qb to get into rhythm.

Thier dbs are no where close to la tech or Texas.

Ben Gooding Newbie

Ben Gooding

Posted
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James and buyers are going to have to play a little press, or at least a 2-3 yard cushion. We will key on the run and we can't afford to have to worry about the QB dinking and dunking us to death while keying on the Coleman. Play a little press and if our cb's get beat, they get beat. We can't let their QB find a rythm. We can legitimately beat them and while it will not be a program defining win it will still be a big win. GMG

GOMG2013 Newbie

GOMG2013

Posted
Posted

James and buyers are going to have to play a little press, or at least a 2-3 yard cushion. We will key on the run and we can't afford to have to worry about the QB dinking and dunking us to death while keying on the Coleman. Play a little press and if our cb's get beat, they get beat. We can't let their QB find a rythm. We can legitimately beat them and while it will not be a program defining win it will still be a big win. GMG

James jones is going to play tight coverage and force the QB to make accurate throws. I can't say the same for buyers, and if we stay with our base defense on throwing downs, it won't matter. They will just find the lb that is in coverage.

We can slow this offense down like Maryland did. We are just as fast as Maryland. Possibly faster, but not the size. Maryland had the luxury of a big lead where Coleman was not used as much as he could have been.

pastorgrant Newbie

pastorgrant

Posted
Posted

I have only seen their Maryland game and parts of the Bowling Green game, but I was not impressed with their QB at all.

Coleman and Stoner looked good to me and the commentators had high praise for Wynn but he was facing some tough coverage, so I assume he is pretty good too.

Their D seems vulnerable too. I think we match up well against them and have a good shot at a W.

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