Reasons Why We Could & What We Need to Beat Texas

MeanGreenHoops · August 24, 2014

So I basically always dread these games against Top 15 programs. Not because we will lose but because we generally seem to always play them when they are ranked in the Top 5 and just never have the horses to stay in the game. The only team I actually enjoyed playing was Alabama and that was basically because they are a grind it out team so we're not usually down by 28 at the end of the 1st quarter like what has happened in so many other games in the past.

Here are the reasons I think we could beat Texas.

Quality Depth - Yes we are young but there are more potential playmakers at WR and RB than I can remember us ever having at one time. We are 3-4 deep at RB and 4-5 deep at WR. Some of the guys that may not play much like Simpson, Ivery, Goree all could be stars and we haven't usually had that many potential young playmakers. In the past it would seem like we'd have 1 guy at each position to fear. We legitimately have multiple.
Special Teams - Back when we sacked Simms 8 times in Austin our special teams were very bad. In early season games with a top 5 talent program, you are going to have a few NFL caliber players that can make a play. That was punt returns in that game. I don't worry as much about that this year with Tommy Perry running the show.
Secondary - Last year against Georgia it was big pass plays against us that kept us from really having a chance to make Georgia sweat. We have a secondary that can keep up, and have depth with Whitfield and Davis. That's 4 corners we can count on.
Catching them at the right time - Like I said, when you have to play top 5 talent, catch them early when they are unranked and in transition. We can check all those boxes.

What we need to beat Texas.

If we assume all of my points above are true, which naturally I do ;P I think this comes down to one thing. Our O-Line vs. Texas D-Line. In that Georgia game it was our specials teams, defense and one big pass that kept us in the game. But we could not run the ball at all. The key to this game is if our hyped O-Line is for real, like can make running room for UNT vs. Texas for real. If we do that. We will win this game regardless of the QB.

If we cannot run the ball, it will be a matter of time before a breakdown leads to 7 points against, and there will always be a couple of those, and we won't be able to pass our way to victory.

What say you all?

pastorgrant · August 24, 2014

Agreed.

eulessismore · August 24, 2014

Yup. Last year we blew some early opportunities for big plays against Georgia. Can't do that and win against the big programs.

Christopher Walker · August 24, 2014

I say hellz yeah.

Green P1 · August 24, 2014

Its gonna be tough running the ball on 8 man fronts all day.

oldguystudent · August 24, 2014

I think in order to win, we're gonna need to score more points than them.

Greendylan · August 24, 2014

Solid points.

I don't think many teams will be able to run the ball effectively against UT's DL this year. A really good, experienced OL will not be enough to open up running room without a formidable passing threat as a complement. That's what worries me.

If McNulty/Greer and a revamped WR corps don't play over their heads, then we are conceivably looking at around 100 yards of total offense and probably between 0-6 points. I don't even want to think about their point total in that scenario.

I'm not saying that this is what will happen, but this is a plausibility if we don't come in with a well-crafted, balanced game plan led by a more than competent QB.

Greendylan · August 24, 2014

Let me clarify one point about my above comment. When I say that we need a "more than competent QB" in order to have a chance against Texas, I fully believe that either McNulty or Greer could potentially be that QB who could lead us to a win. But, we need to acknowledge that we will be asking a lot of a relatively inexperienced QB in hostile territory, if the ground game isn't consistently working.

tylermeangreen · August 24, 2014

Control Gray, we have a chance.

Don't control Gray, it will likely be a long night.

UNT90 · August 24, 2014

Its gonna be tough running the ball on 8 man fronts all day.

I think UT runs a standard 7 man front until we force them out of it. And there is certainly no gauruntee that we will.

I think everything we see early from UT will be very vanilla.

I also think assuming our defense will be able to stop Brown/Gray is a huge leap of faith. Like Grand Canyon huge. And that has to happen for us to win this game.

Hoping for a competitive game into the 3 rd quarter.

MeanGreenHoops · August 25, 2014

I think UT runs a standard 7 man front until we force them out of it. And there is certainly no gauruntee that we will.
I think everything we see early from UT will be very vanilla.
I also think assuming our defense will be able to stop Brown/Gray is a huge leap of faith. Like Grand Canyon huge. And that has to happen for us to win this game.
Hoping for a competitive game into the 3 rd quarter.

We won't control their running game, but I do have more faith than normal that we won't see the plays that we've seen in the past in the run game. You know the ones where our entire defense is manhandled and the running backs go 70 yards untouched for TD's.

But even if this happens, we still have to be able to run the ball to stay in the game. Quick 3 and outs because we are forced to throw in a bunch of 3rd and 8's or 3rd and 9's situations, means it won't matter what UT's offense does.

Cinquex · August 25, 2014

The game will be won by the team that controls the trenches. To reiterate what everyone is saying, our O-Line has to be able to open up holes and get to the second level to get the running game going. More than anything, Canales has to open the game up by taking shots down field on play action passes. Terrell should see a lot of balls thrown his way; no one will be more motivated than him to perform in Austin.

Our front 7 have a chance to show critics that given the opportunity, these guys can rise to the occasion. Stopping the run is going to be incredibly difficult, but I'm sure Coach Mac has those boys ready to create turnovers and take a "bend but don't break" approach to this game.

GMG

jdennis82 · August 25, 2014

From Scout...

"Why North Texas Might Win: The Mean Green might not be as potent as a season ago, but it’ll still run the ball and play D effectively. The veteran O-line will create room for Antoinne Jimmerson and Reggie Pegram, while Oregon transfer Anthony Wallace joins an athletic linebacker corps that can string out plays."

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1437736.html

Their prediction:

North Texas 13

Texas 38

KaptainKarl · August 25, 2014

UNT was in the game against Georgia until the interception near the end of the third quarter. Score there, and its 28-28 going into the 4th quarter and Georgia starts to get uncomfortable. Games often turn on one or two plays. For that game it was Chancellor's return and that interception.

The Longhorns won games by pounding the middle and then launching the occasional long ball to Marquis Johnson or Mike Davis when the safeties started cheating up. I saw the Texas spring game this year. Without David Ash, they have no consistent offense. We need to put serious Mean Green pressure on Ash early. He needs to get hit on every play. If Ash gets rattled, the Texas offense loses what little potency it has.

Eventually, I think this game will come down to turnovers. The Mean Green will need to win the turnover margin by two or three to be in the game in the fourth quarter. If they are in it, the Texas crowd will get uncomfortable and that will feed into the players. Then it's anybody's ball game.