Is NT recruiting improving

GrandGreen · July 29, 2014

Despite the elation of getting this player or another, is NT really recruited better

I would like to think so, but the recruiting gurus don't indicate it.

Looking at the commitments per Scout who seem to have a lot more players entered than Rivals

Here is how the conference stands up with number of 3 star players and total rated players

Charlotte 0/5

FAU 4/11

FIU 1/6

La Tech 3/17

Marshall 5/12

MTSU 0/1

NT 1/10

ODU 1/6

Rice 7/13

USM 0/5

UTSA 4/15

UAB 2/4

UTEP 0/1

WKU 0/9

No matter what you think of the rating agencies and they definitely are questionable; it is hard to make a case that NT recruiting is significantly improving at this point. There is time left but with the number of walk ons that may get a ship and 3 gray shirts; there couldn't be a lot ships left. Another issue is that NT has one commitment that is not a defensive back, offensive lineman or wide receiver.

HoustonEagle · July 29, 2014

I'm with you GG. Recruiting has been my biggest concern of the McCarney era. Time will tell I suppose.

eagle2014 · July 29, 2014

I've noticed the same thing as well.

outoftown · July 29, 2014

It feels to me like we are ahead in terms of the numbers, from where we were last season (although I can't substantiate that with facts), which should allow the staff the be more picky on the later commits.

More importantly though: while we are not getting loads of 3 stars, it is not smart to only concentrate on that., just because it is easy to visualize the star system. There is a whole market of differences among 2 stars as well, and I do feel like we get more of those players that just miss out on being 3 stars instead of players that were never considered for 3 star ranking.

For example: if you look at the average player quality on 247sports, we are rather similar there to all of the top half teams in C-USA, and about two points higher than we ended last season.

greenit · July 29, 2014

Several of our recruits have not even been rated so it doesn't necessarily give you the feedback you might be looking for.

The proof is in the results. That is the ultimate indicator of whether or not you are recruiting the right players or not.

I thought last year's class was loaded with talent and the first half of this class, plus last year's transfers (eligible next year), plus the gray shirts are off to another great start. Can't wait to see how the class finishes up.

MeanGreenTexan · July 29, 2014

Rice is coming off 2 straight fantastic years. If NT can do the same thing, I think we'll see a bump, like what they're seeing this year.

golfingomez · July 29, 2014

you also have to wait and see if these kid's rating moves over their final season...

as long as the bigger schools in the area keep trying to swoop in late and steal some of our recruits like they have been over the past couple years i think we are doing it right... the real job for Mac at that point is proving he can hang on to these kids

Edited July 29, 2014 by golfingomez

ntmeangreen11 · July 29, 2014

I don't care whether a prospect is rated 2 or 3 stars, I care about the offer sheet. I'm sorry I just don't believe these evaluators really get a good grip on how talented a player is based off a 4 minute junior highlight on hudl. I've said it before and I will say it again, the fact that we don't have a dedicated recruiting site on rivals, scout or 247 makes a difference in prospect rankings as well. The fact is we have lost more battles than I expected us to so far this season but there is still plenty of time to rectify that. As for Rice I'm not sure we're ever going to have a tremendous amount of success head to head in recruiting. They have a huge advantage with their academics and they have been pulling in players with P5 offers for years now because of it.

BillySee58 · July 29, 2014

I don't care whether a prospect is rated 2 or 3 stars, I care about the offer sheet. I'm sorry I just don't believe these evaluators really get a good grip on how talented a player is based off a 4 minute junior highlight on hudl. I've said it before and I will say it again, the fact that we don't have a dedicated recruiting site on rivals, scout or 247 makes a difference in prospect rankings as well. The fact is we have lost more battles than I expected us to so far this season but there is still plenty of time to rectify that. As for Rice I'm not sure we're ever going to have a tremendous amount of success head to head in recruiting. They have a huge advantage with their academics and they have been pulling in players with P5 offers for years now because of it.

Spot on. I give more credit to the evaluators, but other than that I agree.

Also, I'm concerned that our commits will not be re-evaluated. Very few of our commits were re-evaluated last year and most were ranked on signing day the same as they were ranked at this point last year. Even the kids who had break through senior seasons. Like you said, not having subsites on the recruiting websites gives the guys from the recruiting websites little incentive to re-evaluate our commits.

But as ntmeangreen11 said, we aren't improving much as far as winning recruiting battles. But it honestly has not been that surprising. Good recruiters are not relying on winning seasons before being able to win recruiting battles. Hopefully our coaches can be good enough recruiters, coupled with their exceptional developing abilities.

UNT90 · July 29, 2014

Whether recruiting is improving or not will be answered on the field this year. Win the West or win 7 or more games, yes, recruiting is improved.

Go 4-8 or 5-7 like some have predicted and we know that Machasntdobe the job there.

If only we could combine Dodge's skill position recruiting with Mac's trench recruiting, we would be ok.

BillySee58 · July 29, 2014

Whether recruiting is improving or not will be answered on the field this year. Win the West or win 7 or more games, yes, recruiting is improved.
Go 4-8 or 5-7 like some have predicted and we know that Machasntdobe the job there.
If only we could combine Dodge's skill position recruiting with Mac's trench recruiting, we would be ok.

I'll be honest. I'm grateful for the job the coaches and RV have done, but I want more. I try not to be too greedy, but with the state of college football changing drastically soon I don't want to get left behind. If there were guarantees in the stability of current conference structures longterm, I wouldn't feel so hasty to win like we never have before so suddenly.

Without getting into an argument about conferences and conference realignment, I wish the goal would be to build off last year and start getting in position to get an invite from the smallest P5 conference/the P5 conference with room, and the P5 conference in our region. The Big 12. As great a job as Coach Mac has done here, 6-9 wins a season over the next few seasons will be very good for us and be one of the best runs in school history, but where would that put us? If plans for major change happen, we may stay stuck in the G5 despite solid seasons, and G5 will be almost like getting sent down to FCS the way P5 conferences may be in position to take over. Now if we could win 10+ games every year, who knows?

I think last year proved Mac can win without a bunch of 3-star kids with double digit offer lists. I think he will this year as well. But as good as he develops the kids we have, I think our potential is so much higher if he could pull in the Zach Orr's, Tee Goree's and Sam Miller's with more regularity.

I am grateful for everything Mac has and ever will do for this program. CUSA has been great for us. But truthfully I really fear that getting a bunch of underrated kids and overachieving in the CUSA may not be enough to prevent us from getting left behind in these impending changes in college football. But if anyone can do it, Coach Mccarney and his staff can.

GrayEagle · July 29, 2014

I think that we recruit reasonably well against other G5 teams but the times that we can beat a P5 school for a recruit will remain few and far between.

I also believe that the high school talent is improving each year. They are bigger, faster and stronger and first team all-district players are often two star rated even when getting multiple offers. I trust the evaluators to a large extent but they seem intent on giving three stars to a limited number of players. I see many of the two star players as equal to or better than higher-rated players of past years.

There is less need to worry, in my opinion, because of the development skills of our coaching staff and the numerous personal evaluations due to camps, 7 on 7 competitions, Friday night lights, high school coaches promoting their players, and highlight videos. As the team improves, and more players make it to the pros, we will get closer looks. That seems to be happening more this year than last.

Cooley · July 29, 2014

I don't see any difference in the guys we are getting now compared to what we signed in the past. Each class will always have 1-2 kids that could have signed higher. Out of 25 signees, 1-2 will figure out that playing at North Texas is better than warming the bench at Baylor or TCU.

When you consider what prior coaches had to work with, the last few recruiting classes have been a disappointment. Are we closing the gap between us and Big 12 schools? No. Are we separating ourselves from UTSA, Sam Houston St, Lafayette, Arkansas St etc. No. Do we have a stronger overall roster than the mid-low majors. No. One could argue that coaching may be better but recruiting has not improved.

Samuel Beecham · July 30, 2014

Great points of view by all of you. But as the Father of a current recruit who is "only" a 2 star and one who is going through the recruiting process let me say that to the majority of College Coaches star ratings meen very little in the final equasion. My son Abdul has been recruited by many P5 schools since his sophomore year and he continues to be contacted via mail and twitter constantly. Notre Dame, Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, BYU, California, Auburn, Alabama etc have all contacted him and have him on their recruiting boards. What I have discovered in this recruiting process is that the star system is not an exact process (tens of 1000's of kids are evaluated by staffs of less than 10-15 people esp for Rivals, 247, Scout and ESPN) and it is almost impossible to truly evaluate a kid based on HUDL. Film can be maniipulated (show highlights against your weakest, smallest opponents) and in addition all level of competition is NOT the same. In person evaulation, elite invite only camps (Under Armour Camp Series, Nike Football Training Camp, US Army All American Combine, The Opening etc) all along with game film evaulation helps to form an "opinion" on a star rating. In addition let me also state that in many cases the Star rating is an opinion on the "potential" of an athlete. Abdul was invited an attended for example the invite only Rivals Under Armour Camp Series Houston. Many players you may or may not know were at this camp (Tyler Moore, Josh Jones, Eric McCoy, Du'vonta Lampkin, Cody Ford,Cordell Iwuagwu,Toby Weathersby,Ed Oliver, Kingsley Keke, Joshua Uluocha etc) Many of these guys are 4 star recruits and have committed to P5 schools....yet Abdul when matched up 1 on 1 man to man dominated against them. Kingsley Keke is committed to Texas A&M, Ed Oliver is class of 2016 a top 300 player in the nation Abdul went 1 on 1 with both and dominated. In the end Abdul was named in the top 10 performers on offense any position for this elite camp. In closing I'm not saying Star rating doesn't mean anything or carry any weight but it does not determine if a school will suceed or not. Cyril Lemon was a 2 star player (supposedly) and look at what he has done in 3 years (Only player in the Nation to start everygame, All Conference player every year, Lombardi award watch list this year, Pre-Season All America this year, likely NFL draft pick) I think the fact that someone does not have a star rating or a low one is no indication of current or future ability. I had to "harass" Rivals, Scout, 247 sports to create Abdul's profile , give him an accurate rating and then update it as things occured....it's still not right. Abdul was 2nd team All State (TSWA) last season with no star rating and Pre-Season DCTF 6A All State this year as a 2 star. The coaching, the offensive and defensive systems and most of all the player himself determine how good or bad a class will be not the star ratings. Just my 2 cents.

Ben Gooding · July 30, 2014

Several of our recruits have not even been rated so it doesn't necessarily give you the feedback you might be looking for.
The proof is in the results. That is the ultimate indicator of whether or not you are recruiting the right players or not.
I thought last year's class was loaded with talent and the first half of this class, plus last year's transfers (eligible next year), plus the gray shirts are off to another great start. Can't wait to see how the class finishes up.

I looked it up the other night. All recruits that have committed to us are rated on one site or the other except for one. A lot of these 2 stars are high borderline 2 stars. I am comfortable with having 10 commits at this point going into the season. It takes pressure off the coaching staff. There are still 6 months left until the signing period and commits can commit, but still partially satisfied with the number of recruits committed at this point. I will be the first one out of the gate to bash recruiting efforts, but right now we are sitting OK. I think not signing a QB is a mistake though. It's a very uncertain position transitioning from HS to college and if there is room, one needs to be taken. Maybe it might end up being Riddle out of Florida. No doubt I would like to see us land more 3 stars, but I think 2-3 players committed are 3 stars in my mind.

UNTLifer · July 30, 2014

Great points of view by all of you. But as the Father of a current recruit who is "only" a 2 star and one who is going through the recruiting process let me say that to the majority of College Coaches star ratings meen very little in the final equasion. My son Abdul has been recruited by many P5 schools since his sophomore year and he continues to be contacted via mail and twitter constantly. Notre Dame, Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, BYU, California, Auburn, Alabama etc have all contacted him and have him on their recruiting boards. What I have discovered in this recruiting process is that the star system is not an exact process (tens of 1000's of kids are evaluated by staffs of less than 10-15 people esp for Rivals, 247, Scout and ESPN) and it is almost impossible to truly evaluate a kid based on HUDL. Film can be maniipulated (show highlights against your weakest, smallest opponents) and in addition all level of competition is NOT the same. In person evaulation, elite invite only camps (Under Armour Camp Series, Nike Football Training Camp, US Army All American Combine, The Opening etc) all along with game film evaulation helps to form an "opinion" on a star rating. In addition let me also state that in many cases the Star rating is an opinion on the "potential" of an athlete. Abdul was invited an attended for example the invite only Rivals Under Armour Camp Series Houston. Many players you may or may not know were at this camp (Tyler Moore, Josh Jones, Eric McCoy, Du'vonta Lampkin, Cody Ford,Cordell Iwuagwu,Toby Weathersby,Ed Oliver, Kingsley Keke, Joshua Uluocha etc) Many of these guys are 4 star recruits and have committed to P5 schools....yet Abdul when matched up 1 on 1 man to man dominated against them. Kingsley Keke is committed to Texas A&M, Ed Oliver is class of 2016 a top 300 player in the nation Abdul went 1 on 1 with both and dominated. In the end Abdul was named in the top 10 performers on offense any position for this elite camp. In closing I'm not saying Star rating doesn't mean anything or carry any weight but it does not determine if a school will suceed or not. Cyril Lemon was a 2 star player (supposedly) and look at what he has done in 3 years (Only player in the Nation to start everygame, All Conference player every year, Lombardi award watch list this year, Pre-Season All America this year, likely NFL draft pick) I think the fact that someone does not have a star rating or a low one is no indication of current or future ability. I had to "harass" Rivals, Scout, 247 sports to create Abdul's profile , give him an accurate rating and then update it as things occured....it's still not right. Abdul was 2nd team All State (TSWA) last season with no star rating and Pre-Season DCTF 6A All State this year as a 2 star. The coaching, the offensive and defensive systems and most of all the player himself determine how good or bad a class will be not the star ratings. Just my 2 cents.

AMEN!!!

Based on whst I have read, all of our current commitments should be 3 star and Beechum potentially a 4 star, but who cares. How they perform for us means much more to me than some arbitrary rating. Hell, our coaches have watched more film and evaluated these young men much more than some sports writing hack at a website. I trust Division I college coaches evaluations much more than the contributors at Rivals, Scout, etc...

H-towngreen · July 30, 2014

Abdul was invited an attended for example the invite only Rivals Under Armour Camp Series Houston. Many players you may or may not know were at this camp (Tyler Moore, Josh Jones, Eric McCoy, Du'vonta Lampkin, Cody Ford,Cordell Iwuagwu,Toby Weathersby,Ed Oliver, Kingsley Keke, Joshua Uluocha etc) Many of these guys are 4 star recruits and have committed to P5 schools....yet Abdul when matched up 1 on 1 man to man dominated against them. Kingsley Keke is committed to Texas A&M, Ed Oliver is class of 2016 a top 300 player in the nation Abdul went 1 on 1 with both and dominated. In the end Abdul was named in the top 10 performers on offense any position for this elite camp.Abdul was 2nd team All State (TSWA) last season with no star rating and Pre-Season DCTF 6A All State this year as a 2 star. .

This is the stuff I love to hear! I recognize all those name, big time recruits right there.

Marty · July 30, 2014

Thanks for the insight Mr. Beecham.

BigDanTeague · July 30, 2014

I don't care whether a prospect is rated 2 or 3 stars, I care about the offer sheet. I'm sorry I just don't believe these evaluators really get a good grip on how talented a player is based off a 4 minute junior highlight on hudl. I've said it before and I will say it again, the fact that we don't have a dedicated recruiting site on rivals, scout or 247 makes a difference in prospect rankings as well. The fact is we have lost more battles than I expected us to so far this season but there is still plenty of time to rectify that. As for Rice I'm not sure we're ever going to have a tremendous amount of success head to head in recruiting. They have a huge advantage with their academics and they have been pulling in players with P5 offers for years now because of it.

I agree with half and disagree with half, and the reasons are related.

First, if you think recruits are being graded by the major networks "based off a 4-minute junior highlight on Hudl," you're completely unfamiliar with the system.

However, you're exactly right in saying that North Texas not having a school-specific site on a network is a big reason UNT's recruits/classes are often hard to gauge.

Networks (excluding ESPN, which scrapped its school-specific sites last year) are forced to concentrate on players who are recruited by schools that have big subscription bases for their school-specific site. That means the school-specific beat guys -- and especially the regional and national analysts -- have far more incentive to evaluate those guys and see them in person as many times as possible because there are subscriptions at stake.

Schools such as Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. have thousands upon thousands of subscribers supporting multiple network-based, school-specific sites.

In other words, it's much easier said than done, but if you want that type of evaluation of your targets/classes, a network has to know it's worth investing manpower, if even part-time, to a school-specific site for a non-P5 program.

Edited July 30, 2014 by BigDanTeague

greenit · July 30, 2014

We have a QB already I'm this class, chumley, although likely for a position change.

Also, the two gray shirts from Desoto were not rated from what I remember and the kid that committed yesterday did not seem to be rated, but I really didn't dig much deeper than that.

Would I like to see us pull in 3 and 4 star players frequently, sure, but if they were rated that high we probably have less of a shot.

For now, I like seeing us find 4 star talent that is under rated, but match Coach Mac's system. If Coach would have mixed in a couple more 300 lb 1tech DTs recently, I would be slightly more happy, but pretty happy with recent recruiting.

At least half the battle, if not more, is getting the kids to buy in completely to the coaches and the system.

See basketball for confirmation.

GrandGreen · July 30, 2014

Recruiting is an inexact science or at at best. However, most of the same coaches who say star systems are meaningless; are elated to brag about their class if they contain a lot of high star rated players.

It is about probabilities, a three star player has a slightly better chance to succeed than a two star.

I have opined this many times on this board, I doubt the agencies spend a lot of time analyzing a players games or film to come up with a rating. What they do, is look at who is recruited that player and that is basically how the ratings are established. In reality I doubt there is a better way to do it. Teams like UT, Alabama, etc. who have all the money in the world to scout players and pay coaches who decide who to recruit: are much more likely to do a good job in evaluating players than any one else. Nearly all these players are quickly rated 4 or 5 stars.

Where it gets murky and less exact is the next level. Every player is at least a two, threes are normally players with a lot of interest from lower tier teams and mediocre P5 schools. It is obvious if you follow recruiting that honors like all state, district mvp and such don't really escalate a players rating. It is almost entirely the quantity of offers and at perceived level the offering school is.

I don't buy the view that any G5 school with a website affiliated with a raters network as that big of advantage. They may have more luck with getting favorable re-evaluations but most player ratings are not changed.

The hard facts are that NT is still not winning the majority of recruiting battles with peer schools. I don't expect NT to out recruit any P5 schools and win many against the AAC. What I don't understand is why NT does not have better success against other CUSA schools and NT should never lose a Texas recruit to a Belt school.

I think all of us are happy about all the committments because obviously the coaching staff thinks the player will help NT's program. It is also a great achievement to receive a college division 1 scholarship and it is obvious the important thing is how well one performs over their career.

ntmeangreen11 · July 30, 2014

I agree with half and disagree with half, and the reasons are related.

First, if you think recruits are being graded by the major networks "based off a 4-minute junior highlight on Hudl," you're completely unfamiliar with the system.

However, you're exactly right in saying that North Texas not having a school-specific site on a network is a big reason UNT's recruits/classes are often hard to gauge.

Networks (excluding ESPN, which scrapped its school-specific sites last year) are forced to concentrate on players who are recruited by schools that have big subscription bases for their school-specific site. That means the school-specific beat guys -- and especially the regional and national analysts -- have far more incentive to evaluate those guys and see them in person as many times as possible because there are subscriptions at stake.

Schools such as Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, etc. have thousands upon thousands of subscribers supporting multiple network-based, school-specific sites.

In other words, it's much easier said than done, but if you want that type of evaluation of your targets/classes, a network has to know it's worth investing manpower, if even part-time, to a school-specific site for a non-P5 program.

I'm referring to 247sports specifically here, I'm sure they do heavy evaluation on the can't miss prospects and have seen them in person several times from the time they're freshman up until they are seniors. I just highly doubt they have seen a player like Chett Munden in person and given him an honest evaluation other than watching some highlights online and looking at his offer sheet and where he committed. He was unrated up until yesterday and then rated 75 on the same day. That tells me they looked at a few minutes of film and gave their rating based on that.

As for a dedicated site I'm curious to see how many people would be in for $5-10 a month on this forum to have a site on rivals, scout or 247. I simply don't have the time or know how to take on something like this but maybe if there was enough support somebody would take notice.

GOMG2013 · July 30, 2014

Having a rep with those sites dont increase star rating, but it does give the recruits more exposure and thier info and interest gets updated.

And since interest and offers affect the rating, then having a rep will get a player evaluated and updated more.

To see if recruiting has improved, lets look at the offers from the past recruits and compare them to who UNT had beaten out recently.

GOMG2013 · July 30, 2014

Just looking at the offer sheets from 2008 - 2010 and comparing them to 2013 & 2014, it shows that recruiting has improved. The amount of offers and the types of schools that we have beaten out has improved significantly...(based on the sites.)

Cerebus · July 30, 2014

We go over this Every. Single. Year.

Recruit ranking do matter:

CBS: Recruiting by the numbers: Why the sites get the rankings right

Overwhelmingly, setting aside every other conceivable factor that determines success and failure -- injuries, academics, even coaching -- individual players and teams tend to perform within the very narrow range their initial recruiting rankings suggest. Some percentage of both groups will not. But when it comes to forming expectations, it should go without saying that you never want to count on being one of the anomalies.

I know, as a school that does not pull in the high star recruits, that we like to over look this evidence, but the numbers don't lie. Despite the fact that they are getting a new coach, they are under going a lot of turmoil, and that they are having people dismissed right left and center, UT will be heavily favored (24+) because for years they have recruited 3's, 4's and 5's why we have mainly recruited 3's and 2's.

HOWEVER!

Let's remember that Mac is doing something we have never really done here recently. Recruiting juniors. Some of these kids won't be graded seriously until their senior year. No doubt some of these players will become 3's and if we keep our fingers crossed maybe even a 4.

Mac's recruited a DaMN 100 (Goree) , the first we have had since JaMario. If Mac can just get a few winning seasons strung together the recruiting will just get better and better. I really see a chance for us to expect 3's, and hope for 4's and heaven forbid maybe a 5 every few years.