Brett Vito Part I: Can UNT football maintain momentum

[Harry]

June is almost here. And when it comes to UNT sports, that means its time to start the off-season questions series on Mean Green football.

Over the next few weeks, when we arent tracking down recruits or going over the news of the day, we will examine where UNT stands heading into the 2014 campaign.

UNT is coming off a great year that saw the Mean Green finally break its streak of eight straight losing seasons, win consecutive games for the first time since 2004 and finish 9-4 after beating UNLV in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

The win was just the third in a bowl game in UNT history.

So where does that leave UNT heading into next season?

Thats the overarching question, and the first in our off-season series.

Read more: http://meangreenblog.dentonrc.com/2014/05/summer-football-questions-series-part-i-can-unt-maintain-momentum.html/

[Harry]

Good article. My response to Brett - yes you have to value players with experience but most of the graduating seniors you list played on a junior team with a losing record. The defensive line, as you outlined last year was a weakness heading into the season. So you can't really have it both ways. Derek Thompson elevated himself into Hall of Fame status by securing our 3rd bowl victory but he also had some lousy games with the loss to UTSA at home being one example.

With the offensive line we have coming back, with good depth at running back and tight end Marcus Smith I really like our offense this year. Wide receiver will show some new faces but there is some tremendous young talent coming in. We won't replace Brelan but we may have a few guys that can combine to get it done. The defense loses the most, but do we really know that the younger guys can't step up and do some good things? Macek is a kickass punter and this new kid they recruited from high school in Oklahoma is supposed to have a golden leg. I just don't see Perry laying an egg on special teams.

I had high hopes for DaJon breaking into the starting lineup this season but, am ok with McNulty because I know he will be prepared. Josh Greer gives us a solid option behind MiniMac. The young kid Means had the best spring game of em all. He appears to have a very bright future.

The thing I think you can't underestimate is these guys have now - after almost a decade - tasted winning. They will want and expect to do it again. Every guy on this roster has bought into Mac's system, beliefs. Houston, we have a strength and condition program (Wintrich). Mac has slowly but surely put a lot of speed on the field.

I do agree with you winning 9 games again seems hard to predict but I think 7-8 and a bowl is feasible. Call me a homer but I just real bullish on this program with Mac at the helm. Last year taught me not to put too much on players and give more credit to the coaching and system in place. GMG

[untlynchka1]

You make good points, but so does Brett. For the longest time we have always expected these kids that have never done anything to be studs. Brelan was a surprise to us all, but Riley was in the end a disappointment from what we expected him to be. You never know what you are gonna end up getting from players that haven't performed yet.

I think we all undervalued dt a bit, but let's face it he wasn't a game changer. I think the key to our season is defense, and finding a st/deep threat to replace Brelan. If we can do that, we are gonna be ok. I really think our offense is gonna put up similar numbers provided our online stays healthy.

[IslandEagle]

You make good points, but so does Brett. For the longest time we have always expected these kids that have never done anything to be studs. Brelan was a surprise to us all, but Riley was in the end a disappointment from what we expected him to be. You never know what you are gonna end up getting from players that haven't performed yet.

I think we all undervalued dt a bit, but let's face it he wasn't a game changer. I think the key to our season is defense, and finding a st/deep threat to replace Brelan. If we can do that, we are gonna be ok. I really think our offense is gonna put up similar numbers provided our online stays healthy.

I agree on most of your points, but DT was a game changer in at least some games. Just re-watch the Ball State game. He was the key to winning the game that really set the tone for the season.

[Green P1]

I agree on most of your points, but DT was a game changer in at least some games. Just re-watch the Ball State game. He was the key to winning the game that really set the tone for the season.

He was at best third behind the Texas Heat and 2nd half defense.

[UNT90]

He was at best third behind the Texas Heat and 2nd half defense.

No.

[TheColonyEagle]

As for the potential comparison to La Tech's disappointing season following 2012, the biggest difference in the two programs is our coaching staff and system are intact….they lost a boat load of players and then brought in a new coach, staff and system. that's a tough combo...

I feel good about the system and buy in that is in place here.

[Mean Green 93-98]

UNT doesn’t have nearly the team it had last year and it also has a pretty tough road to travel [to a winning season].

A tough road to travel? How many teams have a schedule that looks, at least at this point in the season, to be much easier to hit 7 wins? Comparing our schedule with the countdown USA Today is doing, we'll be playing FIU (#127), UTEP (#114), FAU (#97), SMU (#100), UAB (#120), and Southern Miss (at #113, that seems generous). All these are teams against whom we will be significantly favored, at least in the preseason. USA Today hasn't listed LaTech yet, but I would certainly except that preseason expectations would put us well above LaTech. Additionally, we have 1-AA Nicholls State on the schedule. That makes 8 games that we should be expected to win. A "tough road"? Please.

Picking out six winnable games isn’t all that hard to do. But how many times does a team win all of its winnable games? Games at Tulane and at home against UTSA were both winnable last year for UNT, which didn’t win either one.

Fair enough. But I didn't just pick out winnable games--I picked out games we should be expected to win. I think you can add Rice and UTSA to the winnable list, and maybe even Indiana, those preseason expectations will all be higher for those teams. So that makes at least 10 winnable games.

[GOMG2013]

Just focusing on the lost starters is not a good indication of how a team will be. Other teams lose starters also. Rice loses just as much talent, so why aren't they considered rebuilding? What if you are returning starters, from a horrible team? UNT returned starters last year, but that didn't help preseason expectations because the team was sorry.

Bringing back EXPERIENCE for the starters that are lost is the key. Why are some acting like we are replacing the starters with unknowns or ones who have never played. Jimm has experience. Byrd is a starter lost, but that position is not an issue. Kidsey is listed as a starter. He has some experience. We lost Trice, but Warner has played before and was predicted to play a lot before his injury. That is experience coming in. Lincoln has experience and actually started in the past.

A player to watch is Blake Bean. I was told he could play. A minor injury probably prevented him from starting, but looks to get a lot of playing time for us. He started for Buffalo, so he has D1 experience on a winning bowl eligible team.

[Harry]

a player to watch is Blake Bean. I was told he could play. A minor injury probably prevented him from starting, but looks to get a lot of playing time for us. He started for Buffalo, so he has D1 experience on a winning bowl eligible team.

I have heard good things about him too. He played quite a bit in the spring game (#39). He is not a big guy but has good speed.

[greenminer]

You know you're of a football mind when someone says "June is here" and your first thought is...

[UNT90]

Yes. That isn't to say he did not have one of his best halves of the year (Yes, half - he was bad in the 1st half). That isn't to say that he didn't lead the team well or did not make some key throws. He did for sure.

But for that game, you have to put the Texas sun 1st and probably the D 2nd. The D was literally knocking their players out of the game.

Bad in the first half? When he wasn't allowed to throw a first down pass? And all he did when the chains were taken off was lead this program to the most important comeback of 2013, and possible more? In a possibly program turning half?

Yet some people still are clinging to their preseason agenda of DT sucks?

Check back with me after game 5 this season. If the QB lineup remains the same to that point, I feel you may have a far different opinion.

[BillySee58]

Bad in the first half? When he wasn't allowed to throw a first down pass? And all he did when the chains were taken off was lead this program to the most important comeback of 2013, and possible more? In a possibly program turning half?

Yet some people still are clinging to their preseason agenda of DT sucks?

Check back with me after game 5 this season. If the QB lineup remains the same to that point, I feel you may have a far different opinion.

I'd be very surprised to see our new qb come in and be as successful as DT was in those non-conference games like Idaho, Ball State, and our bowl game against UNLV. But DT had a td:int ratio of 4:5 (8 tds and 10 ints) in conference play.

If our new qb can snag us 2 out of conference wins and improve steadily during that time then maybe we can see someone take us to that next level of winning our division and surpass the bar that DT set. Hopefully our coaches put our new qb in as good a position to be successful as they can. I agree that DT wasn't always given the plays called to his advantage.

Edited June 1, 2014 by BillySee58

[UNT90]

If we run the same offense, which we will, the interception/TD ratio will probably be far worse this season.

Hope I'm wrong.

[the green rokemi]

Uh, ya might want to check the actual game stats...

I think he passed on 12 of 20 1st downs in the half. And in reviewing it, his passing didn't seem quite as bad as I remember in the 1st half.

Count me in the camp that thinks DT was an average qb with a big heart but looking back this game counts among his positives. He was solid against ball state and carried us to a win

[HoustonEagle]

There was really only one game that truly gives me the red ass and that is UTSA. We tried to throw deep and killed drives several times. Vanilla would have won that game. DT and Chico lost that game.

[BillySee58]

There was really only one game that truly gives me the red ass and that is UTSA. We tried to throw deep and killed drives several times. Vanilla would have won that game. DT and Chico lost that game.

Just because we were throwing deep doesn't mean we weren't being vanilla that game, IMO. Same goes for the game before, which gave me a bad feeling that it would come back to bite us. We kept running the ball and trying to hit the deep ball against UTEP as well. It resulted in DT hitting on just 10-24 passes. We smashed UTEP because we were so much better, which masked the problem the offense was setting itself up for.

Tried the same thing against UTSA and it got us in a hole we couldn't get out of. DT was at his best when we spread out the offense and dinked and dunked teams to death. When we mixed the run with the short passes we saw games like Idaho, Ball State, and UNLV. When we went power run-power run-play action pass we saw games like Tulane and UTSA.

Whoever our qb is, I just hope we give him the best chance possible to be successful. DT had some solid games when we kept throwing the short stuff, building his confidence and letting the receivers pile up the YAC.

[Andrew]

Benford> DT

[GrandGreen]

I agree basically with Vito, next year is big question mark. Not only does NT lose more starters than just about everyone, there is still a question to how good Mac recruits are. Last year not only proved that McCarney can win but also that Dodge was a better recruiter than he was generally given credit for.

I think people want to think that there was big rotations in action last year, I didn't see that. The dl rotated more than any other position, but overall there was not a lot of back ups getting substantial playing time.

I am hopeful like most that NT has turned the corner and will be close to as good next year, but I will admit that is based more on desire than the returning roster. NT has suffered for about a decade until last year to find the right QB and next season depends IMO on having success in that mission. OL, DBs, and RBS should be the strength of the team, but elsewhere there is not a lot of proven talent. I think Akunne will be great,and Lincoln and Harris have played enough to be counted on. There are going to have to be a lot of other players show up or this is going to be a very disappointing season.

Mac and NT had a great season last year, but was it primarily based on a very experienced team or was it really the turnaround; we are all hoping for?

Edited June 2, 2014 by GrandGreen

[casual fan]

DT keeps being debated, but when was the last time a QB from UNT was invited to an NFL camp?

Watch out for the freshmen. I think some of them will play and do it in a big way. Just a gut feeling.

[untjim1995]

McCarney is a legitimate coach at the FBS level. He did the same thing at Iowa State, while playing in the old Big XII, which was at its strongest when he was coaching in the league. Dodge was a good recruiter of skilled players, just because of his offensive reputation. But his lines were just woeful and his defense was absolutely atrocious. We get McCarney in here, after we have suffered 6 horrible seasons in a row, and in his first two seasons, he wins 9 games--or as much as we won as a program for the previous 5 years combined. Of course recruiting was going to stink here in his first few years--UNT had the absolute worst reputation in the state as a football program at the FBS level. Even Texas State and UTSA had better reps than we had among Texas HS coaches, recruits, and their parents. And with all of that, McCarney takes those players from the Dodge era and some from his first two classes and turns it into a 9 win season and a bowl win in front of 40k people in our own backyard on New Years Day.

Is it fair to ask the question of how are we going to react to losing some great players? Of course it is. But its just as fair to look at the coach in charge, the personnel he has hired to coach up the talent, and the kids that are here and are coming aboard this fall and say that we should (finally) be on a path that keeps us on a winning trajectory. Yes, we could lose to Texas, SMU, Indiana, and the best of the league...and we would still be where we were in the Dickey Years, which many on this board label as glorious. We will win 6-7 games this year, unless we just fall apart, which I don't see happening under Coach Mac. I see wins against La Tech, Nicholls State, @UAB, Southern Miss, FAU, @UTEP, and FIU. That's 7 there, so even if I miss on one, we are at 6. Now, throw in the fact that I think we will beat SMU at home, that gets you to 8. I see losses at UT, Indiana, Rice, and UTSA. I don't think its hard at all to see us with 7-8 wins and being bowl bound again. And I'm not exactly known for being an optimist or a homer when it comes to UNT Athletics. I usually expect the worst. But, with a real coach finally at hand, I expect 6 wins at a minimum, just based on the schedule we play this year and the remaining talent we still have to start the year. This is all assuming we don't get a year like 2010, where every QB gets hurt for the year before we finish the first month of the season...

[UNT90]

Trusting the coaching staff a whole lot without talking about filling specific holes...

But I hope you are right.

[untjim1995]

Trusting the coaching staff a whole lot without talking about filling specific holes...

But I hope you are right.

I think McCarney and his staff have earned that trust, both here and from his stint at ISU.

[greenit]

I really like this incoming class. It may take them a year, but I think they will do some good things before they are done.

[GrayEagle]

There was really only one game that truly gives me the red ass and that is UTSA. We tried to throw deep and killed drives several times. Vanilla would have won that game. DT and Chico lost that game.

I certainly don't disagree that the UTSA game was the bitterest pill to swallow but I disagree that DT and Chico lost the game. They may have contributed but it was a meltdown for the defense as well.