'15 WR Furquan Shorts (Humble Atoscocita)

UNT90 · May 11, 2014

I literally can't disagree with you more. Rating systems and outlets know what they are doing. Alabama is a P5 school so it doesn't necessarily compare to us, but Bama has had the best recruiting class 4 out of the last 5 years. Their success speaks for itself. UNT can't get the 15 ESPN300 recruits that Bama annually lands. But with as many 3 stars that are in Texas alone let alone the country, there isn't a reason UNT can't consistently bag 8-10 each year. If a CUSA team can annually bring in 10 3 stars a year then they will be highly competitive and more than likely conference champs. Bring in a bunch of NR's and 2's then expect a long string of NR (not ranked) years. Recruiting matters and recruiting stars matter. Most people here and understandably will say stars don't matter. That's only bc we can't consistently get guys in here. So we rely on "development" bc we have to, not bc we choose to. I don't care to do the research, but look at the draft. Probably pushing 7 or 800 stars collectively, if not more.

I don't know that star ratings necessarily matter. What does matter is winning recruiting battles. Beating out a Colorado for 3 star Goree means much more than beating put Texas St. For another 3 star that only has 2 offers.

I guess I'm saying offer sheets matter and winning battles with recruits that have multiple mid to high level offers matter.

Could a Casey Fitzgerald type come in as a non-scholarship player and light the world on fire? Sure. What was the team's record while Fitzgerald was here?

And that is the point. Relying on 2 stars, non scholarship players, and 3 stars with only low level offers is a recipe for disaster.

I do trust this staff to develop talent, but the players have to have the talent in them to develop.

Lets hope recent recruiting victories like Goree are signaling a shift in our recruiting fortune.

Ben Gooding · May 11, 2014

Willie Ivery is a good example of what you are commenting on. He was a 3 star and held offers from Toledo, Colorado State, and NM. I really think Ivery can be our next big time playmaker from WR, RB, or as a returner. 5'9 185lb with 4.4 speed is very good. Much like Brelan.

emmitt01 · May 11, 2014

Considering I emailed Rivals 2 years ago, and they admitted to raising and lowering stars ratings based on who a player signed with or who was recruiting them and not on an evaluation or a projection of their potential, I disreguard their ratings as BS below the 4 star level. I would rather wait and see how a player performs over his career.
I could put together a long list of players that were highly rated and never did much on the college level.

And I see your anecdotal evidence...and raise you historical perspective.

http://www.tomahawknation.com/2011/1/31/1965917/recruiting-rankings-do-matter

Green Crazy · May 11, 2014

And I see your anecdotal evidence...and raise you historical perspective.http://www.tomahawknation.com/2011/1/31/1965917/recruiting-rankings-do-matter

So there is a difference between 4 and 5 star recruits and 2 and 3 star recruits, but hardly a difference between the recruits that we and utsa go after. I'm sure most have seen how a offer by a good big xii school can raise a recruits rivals score from 5.4 to 5.5 or 5.6, so for most of our recruits for the the immediate future the recruiting sites aren't very good indicators of good or just average players.

Ben Gooding · May 12, 2014

That's what makes landing 3 stars in CUSA that much sweeter. Hate to break it down like this but a 3* to most CUSA teams is equivalent to a most P5 schools landing a 4*. Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Utah, Wazzou, NC St, Wake, etc. land as many 4* as we do 3*, and I mean 4* out of the gate. A 5* to the above named schools would be equivalent to us or other CUSA schools snagging a 4*. It doesn't happen, and when it does it's rare. We have to aim at making our recruiting classes dominantly 3*. In hand we would have a legitimate punchers against anybody. Settling 2* and NR's will get allow us to be a mid-major program. Consistently landing 3* will bring a very bright future. The proof is in the pudding. I know that stars and ratings get tweaked throughout the recruiting season due to offer lists and school interest, but look at the mid-majors that consistently land those 3*, you will see them winning their conference and/or being an annual force within their conference. Toledo, Bowling Green, Boise, NIU, Marshal, ECU, Houston, etc. They bring in the 3* on a consistent basis and against the their conference foes they are consistently winning, and a couple of those schools beat P5's consistently as well.

BillySee58 · May 12, 2014

This discussion is not bad offseason discussion at all. Let me address 2 things:

1. The star system. "Billy's first law of following recruiting" states that any and all discussion about stars and the star system will eventually lead to a debate about whether or not stars mean anything. Outlier type players who were lowly rated/unrated or statistics of how higher ranked players are more likely to succeed will then be used to back up either side of the argument.

The truth is, stars mean nothing for an individual player. They have nothing to do with how successfull a player will be. But there is evidence to suggest that higher rated players are more likely to succeed. For every Khalil Mack or Eric Fisher, there are hundreds of two stars who never start or even play meaningful snaps throughout their career.

Yes there are a lot of politics involved with the star system. Especially if you're going to look at rivals. They're industry is run by teams' rivals sites and subscriptions to those sites. Why bump a deserving player of our ours, like Fonzale Davis, to a 3-star when we give them no pressure and a school with a sub site on rivals is pestering them to bump their 2-star up to 3?

Rivals is the best IMO for the top 250 national type kids. But for us, we're more likely to get more love from 247, ESPN, and now scout with our boy Gabe Brooks doing a great job and giving us some attention.

2. Comparing our staff to other staffs. We will and should be compared to other staffs as long as we're playing them or recruiting against them.

Yeah getting 2-star guys with no other offers is not necessarily a bad thing, and he might end up being a stud. But don't believe that those guys are on the top of the coaches' boards. There's a very high chance that the guys the coaches want most are also coveted by other schools. You have to win battles to get the guys you want most.

As for the early commit argument at the beginning. Of course how you finish is more important than how you start. The impressive thing about the early commits is that the coaches from UTSA and such are selling their program to these kids.

If you've been reading Vito's recruiting series, a lot of our targets are going to wait through the summer, into their senior season, or after it's over to make a decision. This is very common among kids waiting to see if they can get bigger offers before they commit.

The difference is, other schools' coaches are convincing these kids that they don't need to wait. Commit now, because this is the school for you, regardless of who might offer you down the line.

Being able to sell the program to that extent is how you're able to win the battles and get who you want. I trust this staff to win games and field a competitive team. But if you follow recruiting as close as I do, you see things that you wouldn't just from looking at our class on signing day. Our coaches are behind the curve of present day recruiting. Doesn't mean we can't sign a good class, beat teams out for recruits, and win games.

GOMG2013 · May 12, 2014

There's a whole lot of things going on in recruiting that you will not know if you are looking at recruiting services. I feel the sites will do a decent job with those D1 targets who are on the map as soph or juniors. Late risers are not really kept up with.

I have said this several times...NOT ALL INFO IS UPDATED!!! especially if you dont have a team rep for the site. Those recruiting sites depend on the athletes for thier info. I know for a fact that some 2013 recruits had more offers than rivals listed.

Some recruits just dont bother with updating the sites.

I know a kid right now that has an offer from a big 12 school and he isnt even listed on rivals. He wants to commit, but his high school coach has told him to wait. Why wait? Because the high school coach also wants the stars and offers for his players. He wants schools visiting so he can try to sell other players. They are trying to make connections.

Its so much that goes on with recruiting.

I also know that there were some 3 star recruits from the last two years that unt could have had if unt wanted them. If it was just about collecting 3 stars, unt could do a better job. Theres some situations where unt likes thier little known 2 star more.

GMG24 · May 12, 2014

Not sure what HS coach worth his weight would tell a kid to NOT commit to a big 12 school when offered a full ride scholarship. Just does not make much sense.

BillySee58 · May 12, 2014

I don't know that kid who you know's situation personally like you do GOMG2013, but I know a lot of early offers given out are not committable. It happens all the time. Schools will offer a kid, but won't be ready to take his commitment at that moment. They want to hold out for the guys higher on their board, but still be able to let that kid know that they think highly enough of him to have offered. Slow playing. Here's an article of that happening, and a kid committing w/o a head coach's consent.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/2/18/5421956/duke-shelley-tennessee-commit-recruiting

You know your stuff, so I don't think I'm breaking this to you. And I have no idea if this is evenly remotely relevant to the kid you brought up. Just bringing up another point.

Ben Gooding · May 12, 2014

Not sure what HS coach worth his weight would tell a kid to NOT commit to a big 12 school when offered a full ride scholarship. Just does not make much sense.

It makes plenty of sense. Guys play bc they love the game, but the end bottom line goal is to make money doing something you love. That goes for all of us. If a recruit coming out of high school is a high rated 2 star, 78-79 and gets offered a full ride from lets say Purdue (see Reggie Pegram) and goes there. If he doesn't touch the field, which more times than not a 78 isn't going to see the field anytime soon, maybe as a RS Soph, maybe. So his exposure is going to be limited to nonexistent. Not only is he not even playing the game the recruit loves to play, his chances of making it to the next level diminish more and more every week. Go to a mid-major, prove your worth, get on the field and show people what you are made of. That's our advantage here at North Texas and it needs to be as I am sure it is sold to recruits. Ask yourself the same questions, put yourself in a HS coaches shoes. You got a WR that runs a 4.60 and is 6'1 200lb. His productivity was limited in HS for whatever reason, maybe bc of the offensive scheme. The kid gets offered by a couple P5's such as Iowa and Utah. But mid-majors are drooling to have this kid on their roster bc they need a playmaker desperately. How would you advise this guy? I for one would tell him to do his research on offensive philosophies and go where you are needed and not just wanted. Go to a place where you will contribute early so you can be seen, not go to a place where you are just to add "depth" and get red-shirted and potentially lose motivation. Granted if I had a guy that was a freak of nature that could contribute immediately I would advise totally differently. So for a HS coach to send a kid packing to a P5 schools is not always and honestly usually not the best decision. It makes perfect sense.

Green Crazy · May 13, 2014

It makes plenty of sense. Guys play bc they love the game, but the end bottom line goal is to make money doing something you love. That goes for all of us. If a recruit coming out of high school is a high rated 2 star, 78-79 and gets offered a full ride from lets say Purdue (see Reggie Pegram) and goes there. If he doesn't touch the field, which more times than not a 78 isn't going to see the field anytime soon, maybe as a RS Soph, maybe. So his exposure is going to be limited to nonexistent. Not only is he not even playing the game the recruit loves to play, his chances of making it to the next level diminish more and more every week. Go to a mid-major, prove your worth, get on the field and show people what you are made of. That's our advantage here at North Texas and it needs to be as I am sure it is sold to recruits. Ask yourself the same questions, put yourself in a HS coaches shoes. You got a WR that runs a 4.60 and is 6'1 200lb. His productivity was limited in HS for whatever reason, maybe bc of the offensive scheme. The kid gets offered by a couple P5's such as Iowa and Utah. But mid-majors are drooling to have this kid on their roster bc they need a playmaker desperately. How would you advise this guy? I for one would tell him to do his research on offensive philosophies and go where you are needed and not just wanted. Go to a place where you will contribute early so you can be seen, not go to a place where you are just to add "depth" and get red-shirted and potentially lose motivation. Granted if I had a guy that was a freak of nature that could contribute immediately I would advise totally differently. So for a HS coach to send a kid packing to a P5 schools is not always and honestly usually not the best decision. It makes perfect sense.

Then, right after the coach gives the player all this very logical and sound advice the kid will commit to the lower major, because they want to impress their friends and think their coach doesn't know what he's talking about. Then, after two years of scrub play he'll wise up and transfer to North Texas. I know there are some grounded kids out there who can see the big picture, but more times than not they can't.

BillySee58 · May 13, 2014

Then, right after the coach gives the player all this very logical and sound advice the kid will commit to the lower major, because they want to impress their friends and think their coach doesn't know what he's talking about. Then, after two years of scrub play he'll wise up and transfer to North Texas. I know there are some grounded kids out there who can see the big picture, but more times than not they can't.

The kids who play like scrubs and transfer here don't play here either. Look at our recent transfers. Cam Feldt was a 4-star but he never even sniffed beating anyone out at Arkansas. He transferred here and it was much of the same. Same with Tyler Stradford. He was a reach for OU, never did anything there, and came here and did nothing.

Likewise, take Reggie Pegram and Marcus Trice. Pegram played in his two years at Purdue. He had two tds in there bowl game. He went from a solid back, 2nd or 3rd in their RB rotation, and comes here and again is a solid back, 2nd or 3rd in our rotation. May even start this year. Trice was in the two-deep at safety and got caught behind an NFL safety and NCAA All-American in Tony Jefferson. Goes from the 2-deep in a loaded safety core to starter here in a thin safety core.

The difference between UNT and P5 schools is not huge. If you're riding the pine there, you're not going to come in here and start and light the world on fire. It can be the difference between a guy being legitimately in the 2-deep and actually being the first guy off the bench at a P5 school, and being a starter here.

Ben Gooding · May 13, 2014

You're bring up exceptions, I am generalizing. To everything in life there will be exceptions, everyone knows that. They don't need to be pointed out. Not to sound like a dickhead or anything.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Ben Gooding

Ben Gooding · May 13, 2014

Exactly and your last point validated what I said. Go sit the bench or come here and be somebody. I'm not saying that all of our starters would be bench players at P5, I am just saying.

BillySee58 · May 13, 2014

You're bring up exceptions, I am generalizing. To everything in life there will be exceptions, everyone knows that. They don't need to be pointed out.

How are those exceptions? That's almost every major college transfer who has come here lately. Let's name the rest of the recent big school transfers then.

We got 1 in our last class, in former 4-star LB Anthony Wallace from Oregon. He didn't hardly play at all at Oregon in two years. Where's he on our two-deep? At his position (MLB) we have 2-star Fred Scott starting, backed up by Blake Bean. Darius Terrell couldn't crack the depth chart at Texas, but this was mainly because of the experiment they tried with him. They tried moving him to tight end because he was a bigger WR, but that wasn't a good fit. He transfers here and he's stuck behind a a former walkon and two sub 5'9" receivers who had no other offers coming out of high school. This year he's currently starting ahead of two sub 6' WRs who came here as walkons. I think highly of him. He should contribute plenty this year and he's far from a bust. But just because he had a great offer list and was 6'3" hardly meant he could just come in here and start from day 1.

Then everyone's favorite, Brock Berglund. Talent wasn't an issue here, talent wasn't an issue there (Kansas and Scottsdale CC). Just because he was a 3-star, had offers from Pac 12 schools, had a great arm and great mobility, and was 6'3" didn't mean he could come in here and start right away. Not to mention 4-star Jordan Richmond who just transferred from A&M, and is now gone already.

Guys can improve their situations coming here. But not nearly as much as you're saying.

BillySee58 · May 13, 2014

Exactly and your last point validated what I said. Go sit the bench or come here and be somebody. I'm not saying that all of our starters would be bench players at P5, I am just saying.

If you're legitimately in the 2-deep you're actually seeing the field. The coaches trust you on the field. "Backup" is a very general term. There's a huge difference between a guy legitimately on the two deep and guy who never sees the field except for garbage time. Both are technically backups, but the difference is major. One may start if they transfer to a school like UNT. The other will be in not much better a situation if they transfer here. That's been the case, every time.

GOMG2013 · June 18, 2014

This guy may flip from UTSA. Per 247, he went to an Aggie camp. Even if the Aggies don't offer, when you go to camps, you are looking for other offers in most cases.

Keith7 · June 18, 2014

This guy may flip from UTSA. Per 247, he went to an Aggie camp. Even if the Aggies don't offer, when you go to camps, you are looking for other offers in most cases.

I'm the sports editor at the hometown newspaper of this guy. He and his teammate Tre Hamilton (also a UTSA commit) have made the circuit when it comes to camps - Baylor, UT, UH, etc.

That being said, he seems pretty set on UTSA. The Roadrunners have recruited our area pretty hard. Atascocita had another WR sign with them last year (Greg Campell) and a QB in the same school district is going there as well (Kingwood Park's Jaylon Henderson).

One thing I will say is that he took the first offer he got. He and Hamilton both visited UTSA in February and were the first two commits for UTSA. You always wonder if those types of kids should have been more patient.