Kiev Burning

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

UNT90 · March 4, 2014

No links, this is off BBC reports:

Russia may be taking steps to back off situation:

* The military exercises in Russia, that Putin was personally overseeing, have been cancelled and troops were sent to their home bases.
* A deadline ultimatum to surrender the naval and marine bases in Crimea was passed, and then denied ever been given.

Still two things make this a pretty dangerous situation. One, the Crimean bases are still surrounded by Russian troops, and there are reports of both sides having fired warning shots. We are just one bad decision by an NCO, which are considered to be of poor quality in most east euro armies and downright awful in the Russian, from having a shooting war.

Two, Ukraine and Poland have developed a special friendship over the last decade is so. There are reports that Poland is considering sending troops into Ukraine for "training exercises." This would not only infuriate the Russians, but would put NATO govt troops right into the middle of a possible shooting war, at which point NATO would have to get involved.

Let's not forget that while we talk about this in geopolitical form, there are actual human beings on the ground. Here is a picture of one of the barricaded Ukrainian soldiers being visited by his daughter at the gates of his base:

Putting NATO forces inside the Ukraine to conduct joint military exercises would be a brilliant political move. Does Pres. Obama have the stones to go along with such a move? That is the question.

I do think sending John Kerry to Keiv is a good move. Any American presence in the capital may dissuade a full scale invasion. Putin definitely has stones, though, so we shall see.

Maybe we can just trade them Biden? (I kid, I kid)

Edited March 4, 2014 by UNT90

Censored by Laurie · March 4, 2014

well...shit.

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

Putting NATO forces inside the Ukraine to conduct joint military exercises would be a brilliant political move. Does Pres. Obama have the stones to go along with such a move? That is the question.

I think it's really, really risky. If Putin really is unstable right now, then he may a terrible choice. The reward would be high, but the risk is incredibly high. Do we really want a shooting war between nuclear states?

I do think sending John Kerry to Keiv is a good move. Any American presence in the capital may dissuade a full scale invasion. Putin definitely has stones, though, so we shall see.

The British did the same thing by sending Hague. A good move.

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

well...shit.

Yes, adding tactical nukes to the mix would be a nightmare.

In case anyone doubts if someone would nuke their own territory to repel and invasion, that is the primary plan of the French military. I know everyone really likes to make fun of the French, but the truth is they are the only euro power who didn't join NATO, and therefore actually have their own military that can project force without US aid. If France and Germany were to fight tomorrow, France would mop the floor with them.

adman · March 4, 2014

http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

This is a little tangential, but I find it interesting.

RE: Why the world looks to the US for military force.
RE: Why France is a real military power.

First, keeping an air craft carrier out in open waters takes an ENORMOUS supply line, logistical, strategic and tactical effort. Very few countries have one, but most of them are for show, their home country really doesn't have the infrastructure to use them effectively. For example Brazil's carrier isn't actually sea worthy and is used for pilot training, and Thailand operates it carrier ONE DAY A YEAR.

Secondly, most of these have very short mission duration times because of their fuel supply and their countries lack of supply infrastructure. There are only 11 nuclear powered air craft carriers in the world. America has 10 Nimitz class super carriers, and France has the Charles De Gaulle. There are only six more under development in the world. China is a project in the early stages, India has the Vikrant, and Russia also has also decided they need one. All of three of these are in early planning stages. America has three Ford class super carriers under construction, with delivery dates of 2015, 2020 and 2025.

Censored by Laurie · March 4, 2014

http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/

Thank you...this was useful for two reasons:

1. I was curious what popular opinion was in Russia over these actions. As I suspected, quite low.

2. As copy after un-read copy of Time piles up in my bathroom, this was a good reminder to go ahead and cancel my subscription.

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

Speaking of air craft carriers, the USS George H W Bush just arrived in Greece. Why is that news? Because when they crossed the Straight of Gibraltar two days ago they were supposed to head through the Suez to the Persian Gulf.

All About UNT · March 4, 2014

Speaking of air craft carriers, the USS George H W Bush just arrived in Greece. Why is that news? Because when they crossed the Straight of Gibraltar two days ago they were supposed to head through the Suez to the Persian Gulf.

While of course the Navy says it was a scheduled port visit http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=79462 it is not abnormal whatsoever for a carrier to stop in either Alexandria, Crete or another Eastern Med port on it's transit over the the Gulf. Well....unless you were on my ship that is.

What will be telling is if they throw together an impromptu exercise with the Greeks in the next few weeks instead of carrying on with their preset destination.

All About UNT · March 4, 2014

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/04/ukraine-russia-belbek-pictures_n_4894919.html

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

Not a single region in Ukraine shows a majority willing to unite with Russia

Here she gave the example that even in Crimea, where the percentage of people wanting to unite with Russia has grown recently, it is still only 41%, that is less than half of the population. In Donetsk region, which is said by sociologist to be the second critical spot, there are only 33% of people wishing to unite with Russia.

Mrs. Bekeshkina also said that in total, only 12% of Ukrainians want to unite with Russia into one state. “In last years this number has decreased from 20 to 9 per cent, though after Maidan it has increased again by 3 per cent”, she summarized.

Cerebus · March 4, 2014

I think some people might be laboring under the pretext that Putin's thought process and logic tree is somehow related to their own. This is a good documentary by the Candadian version of PBS, it's 90 minutes long, but it worth it if you want to understand Putin rise and more importantly his values and though process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5Rkom1RpKA

CBC's "The Passionate Eye" presents The Putin System - a point-of-view documentary that presents an ominous view of what Putin is willing to do to ensure Russia regains its position on the world stage.

The Putin System chronicles the remarkable life of Putin, a tough, young leader who is not afraid to make harsh decisions and holds a secret purpose-to restore the old Russia of his dreams.

The Putin System is directed by Jean-Michel Carré in association with Jill Emery for the French production company Les Films Grain De Sable.

CMJ · March 5, 2014

That was fascinating...thanks for posting.

Edited March 5, 2014 by CMJ

UNT90 · March 5, 2014

I think it's really, really risky. If Putin really is unstable right now, then he may a terrible choice. The reward would be high, but the risk is incredibly high. Do we really want a shooting war between nuclear states?
.

I think force, or the threat thereof, is about the only thing Putin understands. I don't think Putin believes that the USA would allow NATO troops to conduct such training, which is exactly why it would be a good idea. Risky? Yes. But Putin has already balked at deadlines now that the Ukraine has stood up to him and are getting support from other nations that could actually pose a threat to Russia militarily.

Having NATO troops participate in joint exercises at the invitation of the Ukraine in the Ukraine is the one thing Putin would never expect us to do. It would signal that we and our European allies mean business.

It's probably the one thing we could do to get head snapping attention from Vlad.

Edited March 5, 2014 by UNT90

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

It's probably the one thing we could do to get head snapping attention from Vlad.

It's probably what he wants. Merkel and others have said that they think Putin is off his rocker, because they don't understand his mindset. Putin would love for the cold war to be in full effect, he wants to yank the anti capitalist crown off of China's head and would love to go back to 1975, when he joined the KGB.

The problem is we where a fingers breadth away from nuclear winter then. And, lets not look past the fact that Russian NCO are awful, if anyone can blunder into a nuclear escalation, its the Russian NCO corp.

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

UNT90 · March 5, 2014

It's probably what he wants. Merkel and others have said that they think Putin is off his rocker, because they don't understand his mindset. Putin would love for the cold war to be in full effect, he wants to yank the anti capitalist crown off of China's head and would love to go back to 1975, when he joined the KGB.

The problem is we where a fingers breadth away from nuclear winter then. And, lets not look past the fact that Russian NCO are awful, if anyone can blunder into a nuclear escalation, its the Russian NCO corp.

The key is the Russian people. Do THEY want the Cold War days back at there doorstep.

Putting NATO troops in is far from the perfect solution, but there really isn't one in this situation. What it does do is put the Cold War days right on the Russian border for all the Russian population to see. How would the Russian military leaders feel about engaging NATO troops and causing a major military conflict?

If Putin is off his rocker, the way to stop him is to make the Russian military leaders and Russian population realize Putin is heading down a dead end path, even if you can't get Putin to realize it himself.

Personally, I think he wants everyone to think he is off his rocker. He wants people to fear Russia like they used to fear the USSR.

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

The key is the Russian people. Do THEY want the Cold War days back at there doorstep.

I think you are misunderstanding Russian culture. They aren't Americans. They don't have the mindset that "hey, I don't like this, so I am going to complain, call my congressman, go vote for someone else." The average Russian has the mindset of "these are big problems, I can't even comprehend them, much less fix them. Leave this to the big people, they run the government for a reason."

As Putin has gotten more autocratic, his ratings have gone up. Russians traditionally like a strongman in charge. Now it is a big country, so there are many people who don't feel this way, but it is the general feeling. Americans by cultural tradition don't trust those who want power over them, Russians do.

Personally, I think he wants everyone to think he is off his rocker. He wants people to fear Russia like they used to fear the USSR.

You should watch that documentary. Putin absolutely wants a return to the CCCP. He believes that to be Russia's true role. He has been quoted as saying the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy in human history.

UNT90 · March 5, 2014

I think you are misunderstanding Russian culture. They aren't Americans. They don't have the mindset that "hey, I don't like this, so I am going to complain, call my congressman, go vote for someone else." The average Russian has the mindset of "these are big problems, I can't even comprehend them, much less fix them. Leave this to the big people, they run the government for a reason."
As Putin has gotten more autocratic, his ratings have gone up. Russians traditionally like a strongman in charge. Now it is a big country, so there are many people who don't feel this way, but it is the general feeling. Americans by cultural tradition don't trust those who want power over them, Russians do.
You should watch that documentary. Putin absolutely wants a return to the CCCP. He believes that to be Russia's true role. He has been quoted as saying the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy in human history.

Oh, I completely get that Putin wants a return to the glory days of the USSR, but I don't think he is mentally unstable. I think he would love for his perceived enemies (read: USA) to think that, because that type of thought in the US government would accomplish 2 things for Putin. It would create fear of Putin by our leaders and in turn (and this is the most important thing) limit our response options.

Don't make the crazy man mad or he may nuke somebody.

This is exactly what Putin wants.

Even the Russian culture will wake up to what is going on with NATO ( read:American) troops on their border. They already have shown that they are starting to get it through opinion polls and the reaction of the Russian market.

I get what you are saying, but this is also the same culture that vocally rebuke Gorbachev once given the power of free speech. It's a culture that has grown accustom to certain freedoms over the past 20 years and doesn't want any part of a war with the NATO alliance.

If Putin wants to act like a USSR leader, fine, treat him like one. Follow Reagan's lead and stand up to him at every turn while appealing to the Russian people.

I hope Pres. Obama follows this path. There have actually been some encouraging signs so far. I hope he continues down this path and calls Putin's bluff. Putin will fold. It is his only option.

Edited March 5, 2014 by UNT90

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

Don't make the crazy man mad or he may nuke somebody.

You put units with crappy NCOs next to each other and sooner or later they shoot each other. You have a shooting war between to nuclear powers and sooner or later someone gets nuked.

I feel that we do need to stand up to Putin, unless we want a new USSR, but I want everyone to understand the risks.

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

Ukrainians rush to enlist for army

“I can't say I look forward to it, but if there is going to be a war, it's my duty. We have to defend the country,” he said, adding that “Ten million men are prepared to take up arms.”
Faced with more volunteers than it could take, the recruitment office in central Kiev decided to shut its doors until Thursday.
“Many are disappointed because they thought a mobilisation was already under way but we're still telling them to wait, that we'll call them when it's time.” Not just individuals but companies have stepped forward — for example with computer equipment — to help a Ukrainian army that has seen better days.

FirefightnRick · March 5, 2014

The U.S. just kicked off their friendly soccer game vs the Ukrain. The game is being played in Cyprus.

Rick

Cerebus · March 5, 2014

Russian media is showing videos of ethnic Russian residents of different Ukrainian cities saying they are scared and being threatened by "Nazis." Only problem? They are actors.