Kiev Burning

pastorgrant · September 19, 2014

I usually avoid the Pie forum like the plague, but I heard there was a Ukraine thread and I have good friends/ministry partners there that I talk to almost daily. They were in Kiev until a couple of weeks ago but have moved to Lvov. I do also still have contacts in Kiev.

Sometimes they are not really forthcoming because they dont want me to worry, but I will try to get an update on the latest and let you all know what I find out.

Anyway, thanks, all of you for being concerned about the folks there.

pastorgrant · September 22, 2014

OK, back with a bit of news, Kiev is safe, but not as safe as where my good friends are in Lviv, which he said was "real safe". Basically, the war is still not official, but there's still fighting going on, mostly out East (Lviv is way out West, Kiev in the middle). There are terrorists (Russians with Russian military tech) who are being allowed in a "buffer zone." Both sides are pretty much entrenched and neither side is making any progress. The biggest concern is the Russians cutting of gas supplies during winter, there could be power outages, which could be bad because of the cold climate. A lot of the old buildings in Lviv have wood burning heaters, and Ukrainians have really pulled together during this conflict, so he expects that if power is shut off, people will welcome others into their homes/places of business to keep warm.

All About UNT · September 25, 2014

OK, back with a bit of news, Kiev is safe, but not as safe as where my good friends are in Lviv, which he said was "real safe". Basically, the war is still not official, but there's still fighting going on, mostly out East (Lviv is way out West, Kiev in the middle). There are terrorists (Russians with Russian military tech) who are being allowed in a "buffer zone." Both sides are pretty much entrenched and neither side is making any progress. The biggest concern is the Russians cutting of gas supplies during winter, there could be power outages, which could be bad because of the cold climate. A lot of the old buildings in Lviv have wood burning heaters, and Ukrainians have really pulled together during this conflict, so he expects that if power is shut off, people will welcome others into their homes/places of business to keep warm.

The Polish in me refuses to spell Lwow...."Lviv". Glad your friends are safe. I can guarantee if Russians ever took that city that Poland would enter the war within 24 hrs

HoustonEagle · November 7, 2014

Is it time to bring back this thread? I read today Russia sent a column of 32 tanks into the Ukraine? Is this not news or is it the American attention span has moved on to the latest bright shiny object?

Edited November 7, 2014 by HoustonEagle

Cerebus · November 9, 2014

I haven't posted much lately because the website is incredibly slow for me, I'm talking about 20+ seconds for each click to load, is this happening to anyone else?

UNT90 · November 9, 2014

Is it time to bring back this thread? I read today Russia sent a column of 32 tanks into the Ukraine? Is this not news or is it the American attention span has moved on to the latest bright shiny object?

Ebola, man.

Haven't you heard?

Cerebus · January 20, 2015

Now that:

1) the website is fixed, and

2) things are heating up in Donetsk,

I could start this thread back up if people are interested.

Interest?

THOR · January 20, 2015

always good to know what's going on in the world...

adman · January 20, 2015

Now that:

1) the website is fixed, and

2) things are heating up in Donetsk,

I could start this thread back up if people are interested.

Interest?

Absolutely.

ChristopherRyanWilkes · January 20, 2015

Now that:

1) the website is fixed, and

2) things are heating up in Donetsk,

I could start this thread back up if people are interested.

Interest?

Definitely.

forevereagle · January 20, 2015

Now that:

1) the website is fixed, and

2) things are heating up in Donetsk,

I could start this thread back up if people are interested.

Interest?

Army of Dad · January 20, 2015

Now that:

1) the website is fixed, and
2) things are heating up in Donetsk,

I could start this thread back up if people are interested.

Interest?

I'll add my voice to the chorus of 'yes, please'.

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Reuters: Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis

A surge in violence in east Ukraine is undermining international hopes that Russia's financial crisis and Western sanctions will force President Vladimir Putin to change policy on the conflict.
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Even though the ruble's decline, the fall of oil prices and the impact of sanctions are likely to force Russia into recession and budget cuts, Putin has barely flinched.
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Putin appears to have abandoned any hopes he may have had, after annexing Crimea last March, of bringing other Ukrainian territory into Russia.

Several weeks ago, before Russia's economic crisis took a firm grip, he stopped using the term "Novorossiya" (New Russia) in public when referring to parts of southern and eastern Ukraine that were once part of the Russian empire.

He has taken to referring to the areas controlled by the separatists as the Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics, a move that suggests he will settle for their autonomy from Kiev within Ukraine's borders - but nothing less.
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Backing down now could put at risk the huge public support he received after the seizure of Crimea. This could be a dangerous step because Russia's financial crisis could undermine support for him.

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Reuters: Russia has 9,000 troops on Ukrainian soil, Poroshenko tells Davos forum

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told the World Economic Forum on Wednesday that Russia had 9,000 troops on Ukrainian soil and he called on Moscow to withdraw them.

In a speech to the forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said the Russian troops were backed by a range of heavy weapons including tanks and artillery systems.

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Reuters: Russia hits back at Obama over State of Union speech

"The Americans have taken the course of confrontation and do not assess their own steps critically at all," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference.

"Yesterday's speech by President Obama shows that at the center of the (U.S.) philosophy is only one thing: 'We are number one and everyone else has to recognize that' ... It shows that the United States wants all the same to dominate the world and not merely be first among equals."

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Lavrov drew a parallel between the "Maidan" protests in Kiev that culminated in the overthrow last year of Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovich as president, and violence in the U.S. town of Ferguson over a court decision that fueled racial tensions.

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

From the Russian ministry of defense, forgive the poor translation:

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation: Servicemen Operational Group of Russian troops in Transnistria learn to act in a small tactical groups

During the training sessions will involve more than 30 units of military and special equipment. Particular attention will be paid to the preparation of personnel to act as part of the small tactical groups: military personnel to learn to perform tasks on purpose as part of pairs, triples, office.

In other words, their training will focus on guerrilla tactics, perfect preparation in order to slip them into Ukraine and fight along the other "volunteers."

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Russian citizen posted this video of troopers in Russia "rushing to the Ukraine."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtMyNmRCxWI

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Open Russia is keeping a list of all the reported "volunteers" who have died fighting in Ukraine. Currently at 227.

They have also created this handy map showing where they came from:

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

WSJ: Is There No One Who Will Stand Up for Ukraine?

Oleksander Turchynov, the secretary of Ukraine’s national defense council, told the country’s parliament something startling last week. He said that there were 8,500 Russian regular troops now deployed in eastern Ukraine and that another 52,000 were poised just on the other side of its eastern border.
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He responded: “It would be difficult to believe that the Ukrainians could have such hard numbers on Russian troop presence without that also being visible to Western intelligence.”

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For her, it seemed like the evidence on aggressive Russian behavior toward the West over the past two months just didn’t exist, although Moscow’s military showed off its potentially nuclear-armed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, the westernmost Russian territory bordering Poland and Lithuania, and then announced it would station combat-ready troops in Kaliningrad and Crimea in 2015.

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A point has been reached, the official said, where NATO “is getting ready for neo-containment. The Germans are getting adjusted to it. Although not all of them.”

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What the Obama administration doesn’t seem to take on—or doesn’t want to take on—is the great willingness of some of its European allies to ease up on a Russia that the White House was reported early last year as seeking to ignore into pariah-state status.

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Ukr govt source tells me #Russia'n marines filmed at #Donetsk airport believed to be from Murmansk-based brigade https://t.co/xq2trXx5o3
— Noah Sneider (@NoahSneider)
January 19, 2015

ETA: The Russian Navy has it's own infantry. If these are in fact Russian Marines from Murmansk they are probably from the 886th Reconnaissance Battalion.

Edited January 21, 2015 by Cerebus

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Excellent before and after aerial views of Donetsk airport via @marcrenfer http://t.co/T3LtQYXna0 pic.twitter.com/l5sNSOqxKq
— Eliot Higgins (@EliotHiggins)
January 19, 2015

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

A poster in Moscow hoping to gather money for Donetsk-rebels. Dress him for 34590 rub, gun not included pic.twitter.com/xBjauDtsxQ
— Olaf Koens (@obk)
January 18, 2015

Cerebus · January 21, 2015

Moscow Times: Putin Is in No Hurry to Resolve Ukraine Crisis

As European Union foreign ministers meet this week to discuss possible ways forward with Russia to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, they may have to contemplate the unthinkable: Moscow may not be interested in a settlement, dragging the conflict on for years.

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"Exchanging Crimea for Donbass" while lifting the most painful sanctions strangling Russia's economy would be a big win for the Kremlin. Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov advises Putin to seize the deal. Yet, he is not taking it.

Moscow is not exactly rushing to implement Article 4 of the Minsk Protocol that requires it to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and return the border with Russia to Ukrainian control. Last December it blocked the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's plan for more extensive border monitoring. Closing the border would have restored Ukrainian sovereignty and ended resupply and infiltration of fighters from Russia, but would have quickly folded the separatist "republics."

This, however, is not Putin's goal in Ukraine. He wants to leverage Russia's military support for the separatists to impose on Kiev a Bosnia-style constitutional arrangement that would grant the "republics," a special status within Ukraine with veto power over its security policy.