Kiev Burning

[Cerebus]

How very Russian of them.

Besieged Donetsk: shelling in centre of city, fighting at edge, water cuts, severed rail link, no electricity in 74 districts of region.

— Tom Parfitt (@parfitt_tom)

August 18, 2014

The key thing there is that the Ukrainians are really starting to cave in the Russian separatist safe zone.

Telegraph: Ukraine army pushes into rebel stronghold of Luhansk

TFP: Ukraine says troops entered rebel-held city

The Russian have responded in three ways:

1) Sending in more armor

#Russia|n Army sending tanks to #Ukraine, they even did not care much to remove RU mil black plates. MT @BojanowskiW: pic.twitter.com/6uYgxC555p

— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine)

August 18, 2014

2) Sending in more air defense assets

BREAKING NEWS: Separatist in East-Ukraine shot down 3 Ukrainian military jets today. Via @BradCabana

— Breaking News Feed (@PzFeed)

August 17, 2014

3) Denying evrerything

Sky News: Putin aide denies Ukraine arms claims

The Putin aide did not mention the rebels' additional claim of having been sent a fresh injection of troops trained 'on Russian territory'.

The self-proclaimed head of the Donetsk People's Republic told a rebel meeting in a video posted on YouTube that their units had been reinforced by 1200 fighters 'who have received four months of training on Russian territory'.

Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko added that Russia had also secretly sent 30 tanks and 120 items of other military hardware using border crossings under insurgent control.

However this indirect aid is probably not going to turn the tide:

https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua/status/501298964243943425/photo/1

Putin needs to decide, as soon, if he can take the heat for sending in a MRD or two... or else Ukraine will seize control of the area.

[Cerebus]

BBC: Netherlands wrestles with huge criminal case

"If you told me a month ago that I'd be happy my daughter's body was in one piece and not 17 pieces, I'd have thought you were crazy... now of course I am just grateful that she is home."

Hans de Borst's only child, Elsemiek, was identified on 8 August. She was 17 years old. Elsemiek is one of 127 victims identified so far by international teams of forensic investigators and pathologists working at a military base in Hilversum.

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"They told me she is in one piece. So in that way maybe I am lucky. But she is damaged of course. I don't want to see that. I want to remember the way she was before... They took photographs, in case I change my mind in 10 years time."

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The Dutch prosecutors are still in the initial stages of the criminal investigation, but they have already dismissed speculation that the trial could be held at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

The ICC only takes cases if countries are unable or unwilling to prosecute. The Dutch are willing and able.

[Cerebus]

WSJ: A NATO for a Dangerous World

Now, an unprecedented period of peace has been challenged by Russia's aggression against Ukraine. For the first time since the end of World War II, a European country has grabbed part of another's land by force.

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We have already doubled our air-policing missions, deployed more ships to the Black Sea and the Baltic, and conducted more exercises in Eastern Europe. All 28 allies are contributing to this defensive effort.

In a few weeks, at the NATO summit in Wales, we will take the steps needed to make NATO fitter, faster and more flexible to address future challenges, from wherever they come. This Readiness Action Plan should have three key components.

First, we need to build on the steps we have already taken to assure NATO allies' security, to make them sustainable for the longer term.

Second, we need the presence of NATO forces in Eastern Europe for as long as necessary; upgraded intelligence gathering and sharing; updated defense plans; and an expanded training schedule with more exercises, of more types, in more places, more often.

Third, we need to upgrade elements of our rapid-reaction capability, the NATO Response Force, to make them able to deploy even more quickly and deploy at the first sign of trouble, before a conflict erupts. Speed is of the essence to deter sudden threats along NATO's borders. We also need to pre-position equipment and supplies, so that they can travel light but strike hard if needed.

[adman]

Thanks for renewing the updates Cerebus.

[Cerebus]

Reuters: Poland says to speed up attack helicopter purchase due to Ukraine crisis

Poland will move the purchase of 30 attack helicopters forward by two years as part of a review of its army modernisation programme triggered by the crisis in Ukraine, Polish deputy defence minister Czeslaw Mroczek said.

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Polish military experts have suggested Boeing's AH-64 Apache, AgustaWestland's AW-129 Mangusta and Eurocopter's EC-Tiger as potential candidates.

"We will try to have the helicopters ready for combat in 2019 or 2020," Mroczek said. They will replace the worn-out Soviet-era Mi-24s currently used by the Polish army.

Poland, the biggest of the former Communist states to joinNATO after the end of the Cold War, has been a leading voice in calling for sanctions on Russia after it annexed Ukraine's Crimea and for NATO to shift troops and equipment eastwards to reassure members close to Russia as fighting with rebels in eastern Ukraine continues.

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Poland is already in the process of purchasing 70 multi-purpose helicopters, with Airbus Helicopters, Sikorsky Aircraft and AgustaWestland competing for the tender. Sikorsky and AgustaWestland already own factories in Poland.

Mroczek said that following "the Ukrainian review", Poland will also speed up the purchases of a second naval strike missile system, a long-range missile launcher and air-to-surface JASSM missiles for its fleet of 48 F-16 fighter jets.

The country is now also looking to buy long-range unmanned attack aircrafts, also known as drones.

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Poland's Finance Ministry estimates that the country will spend around 130 billion zlotys between 2013 and 2022 on modernising its armed forces. The country already spends 1.95 percent of its GDP on the army, one of the highest rates of military spending in the world.

What? Poland is not even in the top 50 when you rank military spending as percentage of GDP.

The US spends a large amount of its huge GDP (~4.0) and other NATO countries have responded by relying on us to provide infrastructure and command and control. Well, now that the Russian bear has woken up, its time for them to increase their funding.

Edited August 18, 2014 by Cerebus

[Army of Dad]

Reuters: Poland says to speed up attack helicopter purchase due to Ukraine crisis

What? Poland is not even in the top 50 when you rank military spending as percentage of GDP.

The US spends a large amount of its huge GDP (~4.0) and other NATO countries have responded by relying on us to provide infrastructure and command and control. Well, now that the Russian bear has woken up, its time for them to increase their funding.

Poland understands too well that the best way to keep their territorial integrity is to never lose it in the first place.

[VideoEagle]

Something interesting I found this afternoon. Diaries by Andrey Kurkov. He's a Ukrainian Russian. He's ethnically Russian and speaks Russian as his first language, but he is supporting the Ukrainian government and is very opposed to the separatists. And there are a lot of "Russian-speakers" that Putin was claiming to support who are in agreement with Kurkov.

Ukraine Diaries: Dispatches from Kiev review – an invaluable guide to the present crisis

[Cerebus]

Diaries by Andrey Kurkov. He's a Ukrainian Russian.

A Ukrainian Russian?

Andrey FREAKIN Kurkov is one of my favorite fiction writers. If you like dark, depressing, yet still somehow hilarious satire then you should check him out. I recommend starting with Death and the Penguin.

Both Penguin books are great. The fall of the Soviet Union, complete economic collapse, the rise of the plutocrats, the breakdown of social structure, landmines as burglar alarms, mob funerals, Chechan war crematoriums, they have it all.

Tl;dr: If you like dark satire like A Confederacy of Dunces, but with more Slavic-ness, check out Kurkov.

[Cerebus]

From the article VideoEagle posted above:

Yanukovych and Putin struggled to respond to a kind of politics neither of them understood. They eventually settled on a deal for cheaper gas, believing wrongly that ordinary Ukrainians could be bought off as easily as their leaders.

"One wonders what else will become cheaper thanks to Putin's goodwill. Human life here already has an aspect so low that it could hardly fall any further," wrote Kurkov on 17 December.

That's his sense of humor. If you liked that line, you'll like his books. Personally, it brings a spark to my cold, emotionless heart.

[Cerebus]

Things are going pear shaped.

Telgraph: Ukraine fights 'tank column from Russia' at border

Ukrainian border guards clashed with an armoured column in what Kiev claimed was an incursion from Russia on Monday, in the latest escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Fighting erupted around the coastal town of Novoazovsk, six miles from the Russian border, early on Monday morning, Ukraine's military information service said.

Ukrainian spokesmen said "several dozen" tanks and other vehicles had crossed the border from Russia. The claims could not be confirmed.

[Cerebus]

50 Russian armored vehicles reportedly cross border near Novoazovsk headed toward Mariupol - LIVE UPDATES http://t.co/dZbbRITIkC

— James Miller (@MillerMENA)

August 25, 2014

Mariupol in panic over cross border incursion. Donetsk governor to speak on main sq to calm residents - dep. Gov Reutsky #Ukraine

— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky)

August 25, 2014

Regular units #Russia|n army without mil insignia entered #Amvrosievka #Donetsk reg: ~250 armored vehicles/artillery http://t.co/iHnbo8KXGq

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap)

August 25, 2014

[Cerebus]

Interpreter: Is There a Russian Invasion?

Ukrainska Pravda reported this morning from several sources that about 5:00 am, a column of armored vehicles entered Ukrainian territory from Russia near the villages of Markino and Shcherbaki in the Novoazovsky District of Donetsk Region.

Ukrainian television TSN reported an unidenified Ukrainian border guard as saying the following (translation by The Interpreter)

"We observed how the Russian paratroopers entered through a field from the direction of the border. There were tanks, BTRs and KAMAZes in the convoy. They were situated in the field between the villages of Shcherbaki and Markino, a bit above the Novoazovsky checkpoint. Their scout and several tanks moved toward the area of the village of Roza Luxemburg."

[Cerebus]

NYT: Russia Moves Artillery Units Into Ukraine, NATO Says

The Russian military has moved artillery units manned by Russian personnel inside Ukrainian territory in recent days and was using them to fire at Ukrainian forces, NATO officials said on Friday.

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“These developments are even more worrying as they coincide with a major escalation in Russian military involvement in Eastern Ukraine since mid-August, including the use of Russian forces,” the statement continued, adding: “We have also seen transfers of large quantities of advanced weapons, including tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery to separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, NATO is observing an alarming buildup of Russian ground and air forces in the vicinity of Ukraine.”

[Cerebus]

Photo of a destroyed #Russian/Pro Russian tank from the column that attacked #Novoazovsk today. https://t.co/udw9HM2exN

— Conflict News (@rConflictNews)

August 25, 2014

Ukrainian aircrafts attacked the terrorists convoy in Krasnodon of Luhansk oblast, resulting column was stopped

— NSDC of Ukraine (@NSDC_ua)

August 25, 2014

[H-towngreen]

How has the Ukrainian Army been able to stand up to the Russians to this point after being overrun by a smaller movement just months ago?

[Cerebus]

How has the Ukrainian Army been able to stand up to the Russians to this point after being overrun by a smaller movement just months ago?

They had everything in mothballs. The exact number of active troops I already posted in this thread (~5,000), it was tiny. 99% of their equipment was covered in cosmoline sitting in warehouses.

Russia sent in a few heavily trained and armed soldiers, brought along heavy weapons for "volunteers" and then in effect over ran local police. How long do you think the Denton PD could hold out against combat hardened troops with anti-tank weapons, crew served heavy machine guns, artillery support, and air cover? Oh, the sheriffs department has a helicopter? Well they have Buks.

Since then, the Ukrainians have been enlisting tens of thousands, cleaning up old equipment and no doubt have been receiving satellite and electronic information from the US and other allies. Is CIA SAD there? No doubt, along with assets from SOCOM.

As far as "standing up to the Russains", let's tap the breaks here. Putin has been sending in just enough help to try and keep the "these are just armed separatists" lie going. It seems he is now ready to send in a few regular army units in, such as some artillery, to try and keep the separatists from being crushed.

If Putin sends in a couple Motorized Rifle Divisions, a Guards Armored Division and an Air Wing in the Ukrainians are still right and proper F'ed. It's just that SO FAR he doesn't think it would be worth the backlash from the West.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

As you can see the Russian Separatists position is really precarious. Fighting is happening in and around Luhansk and Donetsk and if those areas fall holding the rest of the east becomes untenable. Putin will, probably within the next week, need to decide to let them sink or really increase support. The Ukrainians have lost 4,000+ soldiers and dozens of aircraft and neither the military nor the public is showing an signs of war fatigue.

https://twitter.com/arabthomness/status/503920399202390016/photo/1

[Cerebus]

It seems he is now ready to send in a few regular army units in, such as some artillery, to try and keep the separatists from being crushed.

I may have spoken too soon. Caveat: I don't know how reliable this reporter is.

PlanetPutin: Another Smoking Gun: Russia’s 76th VDV Division Fighting in Ukraine

A group of combat vehicles were engaged by Ukraine’s 24th Mech Brigade near Luhansk late yesterday, and during the fighting two BMD-2 airborne infantry fighting vehicles were damaged and captured as their crews fled.

One of the vehicles bore the side (bort) number 275. Contents of the vehicles included a lot of vehicle and crew documentation, credit and debit cards, club cards, a driver’s license, a passport, and more, showing that the vehicles and crew were from V/Ch 74268, which is the 234th Assault Storm (Parachute) Regiment of the 76th Assault Storm (VDV) Division, based in Pskov on the Estonian border (this is a unit near and dear to my heart which I know rather well, having spent a couple of days at it a number of years ago on an arms control inspection).

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The most damning evidence is that the names in the documentation can be easily checked against social media accounts—primarily the Russian VKontakte one—where a number of the same soldiers are seen to really be based in the 234th VDV Regiment. Some have entries going back several years, showing that these were not some new accounts made up as part of an elaborate Ukrainian propaganda hoax (unless they already thought this all out a few years ago). Senior Lieutenant Popov’s account is especially interesting, with a lot of photos on it showing his platoon on maneuvers while they were in Kaliningrad Oblast in September 2013 while participating in ZAPAD-2013 (which basically rehearsed an invasion of the Baltic countries). The 234th did in fact participate in that exercise in Kaliningrad.

Article contains pictures of supposed Russian documents.

[Cerebus]

This is a photo that a "separatist" posted on VK, Russia's Facebook, to brag about fighting the Kiev Fascists.



The incriminating fact is that rifle scope. It is the newest version 1P59, introduced to Russian special forces troops in 2007. It has by now been distributed to several Russian regular army troops as part of the SVD sniper rifle kit.

It is forbidden from export, and is not part of Russian lend or sell programs, it has never been part of the Ukrainian inventory. There is no explanation for it being there unless this is a special forces trooper, or a de-patched regular army sniper.

ETA: That rifle is also a KSVK 12.7mm anti material sniper rifle. Also only used by Russian armed forces. Though the Vietnamese did steal plans and produce their own version.

Edited August 25, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

BBC: President calls snap vote amid fighting

Ukraine's president has dissolved parliament and called snap elections, as government forces continue to fight pro-Russian rebel forces in the east.

Petro Poroshenko said many current MPs were backers of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych and that the majority of Ukrainians wanted a new parliament.

Elections would be held on 26 October, he said in a TV address.

[H-towngreen]

Thanks Cerberus, keep it coming

[Rudy]

This is a photo that a "separatist" posted on VK, Russia's Facebook, to brag about fighting the Kiev Fascists.

The incriminating fact is that rifle scope. It is the newest version 1P59, introduced to Russian special forces troops in 2007. It has by now been distributed to several Russian regular army troops as part of the SVD sniper rifle kit.

It is forbidden from export, and is not part of Russian lend or sell programs, it has never been part of the Ukrainian inventory. There is no explanation for it being there unless this is a special forces trooper, or a de-patched regular army sniper.

ETA: That rifle is also a KSVK 12.7mm anti material sniper rifle. Also only used by Russian armed forces. Though the Vietnamese did steal plans and produce their own version.

If you look close enough, it looks like there is some sort of camoflauged patch design on the right sleeve of the sniper.

[Cerebus]

Several big developments today.

Bloomberg: Finland Says NATO an Option After Russia ‘Violates’ Border Laws

“Russia has violated international justice,” Stubb said today in a speech in Helsinki. “We cannot bargain over territorial sovereignty. Russia did wrong. We have seen enough of the justice of the strong on this continent.”

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Yet Finland’s economic fate depends to a large extent on its ties with Russia. Trade figures show Finland is more exposed to economic losses stemming from a weaker Russian economy than any other euro country.

Stubb today described Finland’s economic plight as a “lost decade” and warned gross domestic product won’t reach its 2008 level until 2018. He underscored Finland’s commitment to European sanctions against Russia, which he said don’t constitute a “trade war.”

Finland has long been friendly with Russia and the USSR before. It pays to be friendly when you share a 1300km long border.

For Finland to even be talking about joining NATO really shows that Putin play is starting to backfire.

[Cerebus]

Putin is showing signed he may in fact be ready to push all the chips to the center of the table, this is from the Moscow daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta, forgive the poor translation.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia is preparing for a large-scale peacekeeping operation

n the near future Russian peacekeeping forces may be involved in a major operation to enforce peace in the country.

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"To date, the Airborne Troops besides 31st ODSHBR formed five peacekeeping battalions - one battalion in each compound." If here to add troops of the 15th Army Brigade peacekeeping and peacekeeping battalions, which are available in each brigade of marines of the Navy, it turns out that Russia today has the world's largest grouping of blue helmets.

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He reports that his troops were "planning to expand its presence in areas outside of the country." Where and how much they will be is still unknown.

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Sources in the Defense Ministry still can not confirm or deny some of the Ukrainian and Western media about the alleged Russian peacekeepers active preparation for action in New Russia.

[Cerebus]

The interpreter is reporting that Russian paratroopers have been captured and identified in Ukraine. One of the named is Ivan Vasilevich Milchakov: