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Posted

Enough of this liberal/conservative circle jerk. Back to real news:

  • Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who had been jailed under shady circumstances for the last three years, was unexpectedly released today.
  • More and more police militia from the west of the country, the non Russian speaking part, continued to show up on the side of the protesters.
  • Police Militia in Kiev decide to stand aside and let the protesters over run all government buildings.
  • The legislature now decides to depose the current PM Yanukovych, he flees to the eastern half of the country, the Russian speaking side.
  • The Kiev legislature calls for new elections in May.
  • Regional leaders in the eastern section say they are enforcing martial law and claim they are not under control of the legislature until "constitutional rule" is restored.
  • Putin states that a coup has occured, demands that Yanukovych be put back into power.

It's all going to go downhill from here.

  • Upvote 2
Posted

Russia will not allow that.

its happened before. If Russian tanks roll west there be a lot more than disruptions in Kiev's squares. Crimea is definitely pro-Russia but not enough to warrant a Russian intervention. If that were to occur it would be a VERY messy civil war with tons of international sympathy for Kiev (not Kharkov).

Posted

Sorry for dropping the ball in this thread, root canals are the devil.

Do you think that a west/east split might be a possibility?

Good question. First of all whether or not a country can survive with deep ethnic/religious/cultural differences usually comes down to the strength of its national institutions. A country with weak institutions, Like the Sudan, will need a very homogeneous population in order to survive intact. Sudan didn't happen to have that, so now there is a South Sudan. A country like the US with very strong institutions can have a very, very diverse population.

Now people may complain about institutions in the US, but those complains are of the "I think judges are influenced by donors and some cops are on a power trip" variety, and not the "I know judges are puppets and will order me to be be killed by death squads, which are made up of cops" variety. Also, people hate Congress, but because of our election system, the can hate congress but love their local congressman (90% re-election rate). So all in all, Americans grumble about the system, but no one is really to the "set riot cops on fire" stage.

The Ukraine on the surface looks like it would be a homogeneous culture. 80% of the country is ethnic Ukrainian, the majority of the remaining being ethnic Russian. These are closely related, belonging to the East Slavic group of ethnicity. Ukrainian and Russian languages are also closely related, being of the Eastern Slavic language subgroup. However, once you add in a colonial history, things get complicated.

Russian has dominated the Ukrainian region for centuries. For most of that time, the Ukrainian language was looked down upon, and government institutions were forbidden from using it. The local elites quickly learned that being seen as Ukrainian was bad for their careers, and started playing up their "Russian ethnicity." They even began to call themselves the "Malorussy", or Little Russians. In effect, they were denying being Ukrainian and identified as Russians, even though ethnically they were as Ukrainian as anyone else in the country.

*This is pretty similar to how elite New Mexicans behaved in New Mexico and claimed "Spanish" descent. The US Congressional debate over New Mexico's statehood application largely hinged on the fact that a "mongrel race" (Mexicans) was the majority population and held most position of power in the government. The elites responded by saying "No, no, the lower classes are Mexicans, but us elites are of European Spanish descent, and we are the ones in charge." New Mexican was suddenly a state. The Language of Blood is a pretty good book about this.

Back to the Ukraine: Russian domination, especially the recent Soviet period, has created a great deal of resentment towards Russia in the Ukraine. People are sensitive to what appears to be Russia trying to dominate the Ukraine again, this time through economic pressures. This sense of them vs us is also made worse by the fact that while almost 20% of the country is ethnically Russian, they are concentrated in the eastern part of the country. While Ukrainian is the official language of the country, in the eastern region most people speak Russian, and sometimes Russian is used instead of Ukrainian by certain governments. The recently deposed PM is an ethnic Russian, was from the eastern part of the country, and was the one accused of taking back door bribes to align the Ukraine with Russia.

So why does Russian need the Ukraine. First, Russia has a long history of being invaded, and the countries culture believes it needs buffer zones between its' heartland and the outside. "Ukraine" in fact means "borderland." Second, the Ukraine is the bread basket of the region, and grows much of the grain Russia uses. It also has very large freshwater supplies than many Russians survive on. Third, Russia needs the Black Sea Fleet to insure it's trade networks. It happens to be HQ'ed and have most of its re-supply and repair operations at Sevastopol in the Ukraine. The other ports the fleet could use, like Krasnador Krai, Russia are inferior.

All this means Russian wants to keep the Ukraine tightly within its sphere of control, forget influence. The majority of the Ukrainian population, especially the non Russian speaking majority, want to align with the EU. I can clearly see where there is enough stress to tear the country apart. Invading the Ukraine is a whole different ball of wax than invading Georgia, so a direct military option is off the table. Funding parties who whip up Russian speaking partisan fury? Believable. At that point, a civil war is pretty believable, and who will rush in and get to shape the country? The EU itself has no forces, and most of the entire continent except France rely on the Americans to provide their military power. Will the French want to step in? Will the Americans as part of some NATO force? I know the Russians would be chomping at the bit.

  • Upvote 3
Posted

Sorry for dropping the ball in this thread, root canals are the devil.

Good question. First of all whether or not a country can survive with deep ethnic/religious/cultural differences usually comes down to the strength of its national institutions. A country with weak institutions, Like the Sudan, will need a very homogeneous population in order to survive intact. Sudan didn't happen to have that, so now there is a South Sudan. A country like the US with very strong institutions can have a very, very diverse population.

Now people may complain about institutions in the US, but those complains are of the "I think judges are influenced by donors and some cops are on a power trip" variety, and not the "I know judges are puppets and will order me to be be killed by death squads, which are made up of cops" variety. Also, people hate Congress, but because of our election system, the can hate congress but love their local congressman (90% re-election rate). So all in all, Americans grumble about the system, but no one is really to the "set riot cops on fire" stage.

The Ukraine on the surface looks like it would be a homogeneous culture. 80% of the country is ethnic Ukrainian, the majority of the remaining being ethnic Russian. These are closely related, belonging to the East Slavic group of ethnicity. Ukrainian and Russian languages are also closely related, being of the Eastern Slavic language subgroup. However, once you add in a colonial history, things get complicated.

Russian has dominated the Ukrainian region for centuries. For most of that time, the Ukrainian language was looked down upon, and government institutions were forbidden from using it. The local elites quickly learned that being seen as Ukrainian was bad for their careers, and started playing up their "Russian ethnicity." They even began to call themselves the "Malorussy", or Little Russians. In effect, they were denying being Ukrainian and identified as Russians, even though ethnically they were as Ukrainian as anyone else in the country.

*This is pretty similar to how elite New Mexicans behaved in New Mexico and claimed "Spanish" descent. The US Congressional debate over New Mexico's statehood application largely hinged on the fact that a "mongrel race" (Mexicans) was the majority population and held most position of power in the government. The elites responded by saying "No, no, the lower classes are Mexicans, but us elites are of European Spanish descent, and we are the ones in charge." New Mexican was suddenly a state. The Language of Blood is a pretty good book about this.

Back to the Ukraine: Russian domination, especially the recent Soviet period, has created a great deal of resentment towards Russia in the Ukraine. People are sensitive to what appears to be Russia trying to dominate the Ukraine again, this time through economic pressures. This sense of them vs us is also made worse by the fact that while almost 20% of the country is ethnically Russian, they are concentrated in the eastern part of the country. While Ukrainian is the official language of the country, in the eastern region most people speak Russian, and sometimes Russian is used instead of Ukrainian by certain governments. The recently deposed PM is an ethnic Russian, was from the eastern part of the country, and was the one accused of taking back door bribes to align the Ukraine with Russia.

So why does Russian need the Ukraine. First, Russia has a long history of being invaded, and the countries culture believes it needs buffer zones between its' heartland and the outside. "Ukraine" in fact means "borderland." Second, the Ukraine is the bread basket of the region, and grows much of the grain Russia uses. It also has very large freshwater supplies than many Russians survive on. Third, Russia needs the Black Sea Fleet to insure it's trade networks. It happens to be HQ'ed and have most of its re-supply and repair operations at Sevastopol in the Ukraine. The other ports the fleet could use, like Krasnador Krai, Russia are inferior.

All this means Russian wants to keep the Ukraine tightly within its sphere of control, forget influence. The majority of the Ukrainian population, especially the non Russian speaking majority, want to align with the EU. I can clearly see where there is enough stress to tear the country apart. Invading the Ukraine is a whole different ball of wax than invading Georgia, so a direct military option is off the table. Funding parties who whip up Russian speaking partisan fury? Believable. At that point, a civil war is pretty believable, and who will rush in and get to shape the country? The EU itself has no forces, and most of the entire continent except France rely on the Americans to provide their military power. Will the French want to step in? Will the Americans as part of some NATO force? I know the Russians would be chomping at the bit.

Show off.

(this is actually all very interesting and informative, full of details of which I wasn't fully aware)

  • Upvote 4
Posted

Cerebus,

Do you happen to have a map of the US that shows the percentage of English speakers by region?

GMG

Usually when people ask this what they are interested in is the % of Spanish speakers. Spanish is the only language that makes a blip over several regions. For example if you look at a county level map of Wisconsin you might see Hmong language usage over several counties, but Wisconsin will be an outlier and you won't see Hmong spoken in statistically significant numbers almost anywhere else.

Here is the map of Spanish speakers from the 2000 Census:

r81FzfI.gif

It more or less mirrors the distribution of the Mexican American population. Yes, regional distribution, but anyone who would try to draw some sort of Ukrainian style ending from this map is over looking a lot of factors.

  • The majority of Mexican Americans are English only speakers.
  • The majority of those who speak Spanish at home are bilingual and speak Spanish because they have a relative who speaks only Spanish.
  • The US has incredibly strong governmental institutions, that have the trust of the people, at least when compared to the rest of the world.
  • The vast majority of ethnic Mexicans see themselves as Americans.

So in essence you have a population that is losing it's language is barrier, has greater access to the educational system, believes they are gaining voting power, and believes that their access to public office, positions in the legal system, and education are increasing. Hispanic Whites (HW) are actually more trusting in government institutions and more hopeful for the future than Non Hispanic Whites (NHW).

  • Upvote 4
Posted

"Ukraine crisis: Russian flag raised in Crimea as gunmen storm parliament"

Actually logged in to update, here is an article from The Guardian: Armed men seize Crimea parliament and hoist Russian flag

The men occupying the parliament building in the regional capital, Simferopol, early on Thursday did not come out to voice any demands. They wore black and orange ribbons, a Russian symbol of the victory in World War II. The men also put up a sign saying “Crimea is Russia.

They threw a flash grenade in response to a journalist’s questions. Phone calls to region’s legislature rang unanswered, and its website was down.

...

With Crimea now the last big bastion of opposition to the new post-Yanukovich political order in Kiev, Ukraine’s new leaders have been voicing alarm over signs of separatism there.

The Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group, were victimised by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in World War Two and deported en masse to Soviet Central Asia in 1944 on suspicion of collaborating with Nazi Germany.

Tens of thousands of them returned to their homeland after Ukraine gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.

Amid mounting tension in the region, Russia ordered 150,000 troops to test their combat readiness on Wednesday in a show of force that prompted a blunt warning from the United States that any military intervention in Ukraine would be a “grave mistake.”

Putin put the military on alert for massive exercises involving most of the military units in western Russia, and announced measures to tighten security at the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet on Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

The manoeuvres will involve some 150,000 troops, 880 tanks, 90 aircraft and 80 navy ships, and are intended to “check the troops’ readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation’s military security,” defence minister Sergei Shoigu said in remarks carried by Russian news agencies.

Posted

Russians are "sneaking" Hind attack helicopters into Ukrainian territory, here is a bad google translate of an article: Guards confirmed that crossed the border more than 10 Russian military helicopters

And of course since this is 2014 and everyone has a camera phone:

I may get blasted for this, but... Outside of Russia generally being disliked by the West, how is this any different than the U.N./U.S. sending troops/helicopters into foreign lands to protect our interests?

  • Upvote 1
Posted

If anyone thinks these well organized, heavily armed take overs of strategic points that just happen to be the points of ingress to the area for any media isn't done being done by Russian backed forces... well, I have a bridge to sell you.

Ukraine crisis: 'Russians' occupy Crimea airports

Ukraine has accused Russia of carrying out an armed invasion by sending naval forces to occupy Sevastopol airport in the Crimea region.

  • The BBC has seen eight trucks with the black plates of the Russian army moving towards Simferopol
  • Unconfirmed reports say eight Russian military helicopters have arrived in Sevastopol
  • Ukraine's parliament calls on the UN Security Council to discuss the unfolding crisis in Crimea
  • Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Russian soldiers had arrived in Sevastopol military airport near Russia's Black Sea Fleet Base on Friday morning.
  • "I consider what has happened to be an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms," Mr Avakov said on his Facebook page.
Posted

I may get blasted for this, but... Outside of Russia generally being disliked by the West, how is this any different than the U.N./U.S. sending troops/helicopters into foreign lands to protect our interests?

This is a multilevel question, so lets go for a multilevel answer:

There is a word for when you send troops and helicopters into places where the government there expressly tells you not to, that is called war. The US is involved in wars right now, but it isn't trying to invade France under the guise of restoring order, we're just flat out at war with someone.

The elected parliament the Ukraine voted to remove the former PM, and now Putin is calling for him to be returned to power.

At the base level, the US and Russia and geopolitical rivals and we do not want them to return to the world super power stage. Both of us know the first step towards that is for Russian to expand its sphere of control over former CCCP states.

Posted

This is a multilevel question, so lets go for a multilevel answer:

There is a word for when you send troops and helicopters into places where the government there expressly tells you not to, that is called war. The US is involved in wars right now, but it isn't trying to invade France under the guise of restoring order, we're just flat out at war with someone.

The elected parliament the Ukraine voted to remove the former PM, and now Putin is calling for him to be returned to power.

At the base level, the US and Russia and geopolitical rivals and we do not want them to return to the world super power stage. Both of us know the first step towards that is for Russian to expand its sphere of control over former CCCP states.

Did Pakistan want the U.S. to send SEALs in to kill Bin Laden? With the way our ties to Pakistan are crumbling, I would say 'no'. Bay of Pigs?

And it seems like the government of Ukraine was coup'd. So, is there really a legit government in Ukraine right now? Putin is obviously looking out for Russia's best interest, and that would be to get Ukraine's deposed president back in power.

Do you think if some sort of socialist/communist insurgency came up and deposed Pres. Nieto, the U.S. would not act on behalf of our interests and try to get him back in power?

I'm just playing devil's advocate here.

Posted (edited)

TV Network this morning stated that the Crimea and some other regions of Ukraine have a majority of people that consider themselves Russian and not Ukrainian... This might make things even more interesting..

This is far from simple.... I had a Russian (officially) student in my class at the college (now married to an American in oil business) that said even though her citizenship was Russian, that she was born in the Ukraine and her parents still lived there.. When the USSR came apart she was living in what is now Russia so is considered Russian but actually considers herself a Ukrainian. Stay tuned this may get very complicated... We need to keep our nose out of it other than to complain if citizens are just being killed for no real reason... .

If all hell was breaking loose near our border... I suspect we might be doing something similar as Putin is now doing. . We need to think a lot before getting involved at all. This is one thing that Americans in general are not good at doing --- "Think what they would be doing if they were them (and not us)."..

Crazier, I also had a supposedly Russian girl student whose maiden name was obviously German and a blue eyed blond married to an local oil man with a Spanish name and don't even want to guess how many languages she could speak. ..all of those plus English and more I think. She was from the Urals and met her husband while being a translator for an oil company. . She was in a class with a Hong Kong girl who spoke Chinese and some Philippine language plus Spanish and English and sat near a basketball player who came from some French speaking country in Africa and also spoke English..... I refereed to it as my U.N. class.

Oh yeah ... my wife is a Latin/Spanish teacher and I will be in Italy and Greece plus one day in Britain in a couple of weeks.... My name is Dutch but we came from Prussia about 150 years ago and settled on the Texas frontier when Indians were still around.. . .. Comprende todas ??

Back to the Ukraine issue ... It really isn't that clear who should own what... their citizens are so mixed up ethic wise because of all being once being in USSR that it is big mess. Ukrainians live in Russia and Russians live in Ukraine .... if not legally but by birth. Not everyone here in Texas was born here or consider themselves Texans either. Same deal if we became independent suddenly. We should mind our own business unless they are just lining up people and shooting them

Edited by SCREAMING EAGLE-66
Posted

Did Pakistan want the U.S. to send SEALs in to kill Bin Laden? With the way our ties to Pakistan are crumbling, I would say 'no'. Bay of Pigs?

The ISI did, and that is the only thing that matters. If you want a good understanding of how the Pakistani "government" works, and how it has no real relation to what the average Pakistani citizen or even elected official thinks or says, especially in the relationship between Pakistan and the US military leadership while both of them fight off insurgencies, check out Ghost Wars by Stephen Coll.

I'll get back to the Bay of Pigs later.

And it seems like the government of Ukraine was coup'd.

Well I guess if you consider Andrew Johnson's impeachment a coup then you can consider the Ukrainian Parliament's decision to impeach Yanukovytch one also. You and Putin could go out on that limb, I won't follow.

So, is there really a legit government in Ukraine right now?

There absolutely 100% is. Without a question. Russian is trying to muddy the waters because it needs the Ukraine to be under it's control, but that does't change the facts:

  • After the Orange Revolution the Ukranian government is plagued by corruption.
  • Yankovytch wins a narrow election by promising to reduce corruption, fix the Ukrainian economy, and promising to build a bridge between the ethnic Russian and Ukrainians.
  • He asks for and narowwly recieves extra powers to fix economic problems. This is a highly dividing issues, with the Western half of the country being solidly against it, the Eastern half being for it, and the Kiev parliament members being swayed to give it a try.
  • Almost immediately the president uses his powers to scuttle a EU deal, and sign a series of sweetheart deals with Russia. This really angers most of the ethnic Ukrainians, even the ones who supported it.
  • The press is able to dig up papers that prove that the president has controlling interests hidden in some of the companies who will benefit the most from the Russian deals. This seems to be a clear indication of bribery, and it enrages the ethnic Ukrainians.
  • Protesters show up in Kiev and demand that 1) the special laws be rescinded 2) that the Parliament impeach the president and 3) that the EU deal be taken back up.
  • The president responds first b y passing special laws to make the protests illegal, and then slowly ramps up to violence.
  • After months of protests, the Parliment meets, votes to impeach the president, rescinds the special laws and calls for new elections.

Putin is obviously looking out for Russia's best interest, and that would be to get Ukraine's deposed president back in power.

He wasn't deposed he was impeached, completely within the constitutional rights of the Ukrainian Parliament. The nearest analogy would be if Bush or Obama was impeached and then the Russians demanded he be out back in power or else.

Do you think if some sort of socialist/communist insurgency came up and deposed Pres. Nieto, the U.S. would not act on behalf of our interests and try to get him back in power?

I... uh... *stares off into space*

*takes some deep breathes*

Ok... Pena Nieto is the head of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). It is, in fact, the party of the socialist insurgency the won the Mexican Revolution of 1910-1920. It was founded by Plutarco Elias Calles, one of the generals of the insurgency. The party called for, and carried out:

  • The seizure of the means of production and the control of them by the power (mines, factories, oil wells, telegraph lines, etc)
  • Seizure of land from private parties and redistribution. Even today, the government owns all land, and can seize it any time it wishes.
  • Labor rights, but only through the party, educational rights, but only through the party, and democratic governance... with only the PRI running.
  • Seizure of church land, which lead to the Socialist vs Catholic Cristero War of 1926-1929.
The PRI is a socialist party, is a member of the Socialist International, and even though like the Chinese Communist Party it has liberalized it's view of economic matters, they are still socialists. In fact, the PRI rule from 1929-2000 is the longest single political party rule over any country in history, longer than the Russian Communists Party rule.

But yes, if someone where to illegally depose Pena Nieto, I would expect the US to want him back (insert Obama joke here). However if he were to be impeached or voted out of office, I don't think the US would interfere.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here.

You just gave me a migraine.

Posted

...

post-30210-Neo-WOAH-gif-WHOA-mind-blown-

I bow to your geo-political understandings, and have learned several things in this thread. Please continue and disregard my political ineptitude.

By the way... I'm an American, so I love Democracy, fried chicken, and kicking Russia's a** in everything.

  • Upvote 2
Posted (edited)

Well boys, it was nice knowing y'all...


UN Security Council to hold emergency meeting on Ukraine crisis

  • Keep out of Ukraine, US tells Russia
  • Russia admits to moving troops inside Crimea
  • Ukraine appeals to US, UK to guarantee sovereignty
  • Ukraine's interim President Oleksandr Turchynov accuses Russia of aggression, saying Moscow has deployed troops in Crimea and is "trying to provoke" Kiev into an "armed conflict".
  • Article 34 of the UN charter talks about the power of the 15-nation council to investigate disputes or "international friction" to determine whether international peace and security is in jeopardy.
  • British Foreign Secretary William Hague has said he will travel to Ukraine at the weekend to hold talks with the new leadership, after Prime Minister David Cameron told Russia to respect the volatile nation's territorial integrity.
  • Russia has just said it will give Russian passports to members of Ukraine's Berkut - the disbanded riot police. (AND the guys caught on camera shooting live rounds into groups of protesters -cerebus)
  • Journalists in Crimea have spotted a convoy of nine Russian armored personnel carriers and a truck on a road between the port city of Sevastopol and the regional capital, Sinferopol.
  • Top European Union officials have said that the 28-nation bloc was still ready to sign a landmark trade agreement with Ukraine, insisting it wouldn't weaken ties between the country and its neighbor Russia.
  • At least 20 men wearing the uniform of Russia's Black Sea fleet and carrying automatic rifles are surrounding a Ukrainian border guard post.

Almost forgot to add: Russian Parliament just passed a new annexation law.

The bill would allow the annexation of any "territory where people have expressed distinct will and wish to become part of Russia," Mikhail Yemelianov told Russia's RIA Novosti. The proposed law would allow Crimea to become part of Russia after a referendum or a vote by lawmakers.

The lower house of the Russian parliament, the State Duma, is also due to draft a law in the next two days allowing Ukrainians to assume Russian citizenship.

Edited by Cerebus
Posted (edited)

Imagine my surprise when they ended up electing Yankovytch anyway a few years later.

I'm jealous. I have been all over the Czech Republic and have been to Budapest but I never made it all the way to Kiev. It is definitely on my list of places I have to go before I go and meet Elizabeth, but it might not be the best time to go soon.

Interesting you mentioned the Maidan, because when a reporter asked the Black Fleet Troopers why they had seized the border post:

A servicemen who identified himself as an officer of the Black Sea Fleet said: "We are here ... so as not to have a repeat of the Maidan."

Edited by Cerebus
Posted

It is definitely on my list of places I have to go before I go and meet Elizabeth, but it might not be the best time to go soon.

Cerebus, master of understatement:

21.01 AFP has reported that Russian aircraft carrying nearly 2,000 suspected troops have landed at a military air base near the regional capital of the restive Crimean peninsula, according to an official in Kiev's new government.

"Thirteen Russian aircraft landed at the airport of Gvardeysky (near Simferopol) with 150 people in each one," Sergiy Kunitsyn, the Ukrainian president's special representive in Crimea, told the local ATR television channel, adding the air space had been closed.

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