Kiev Burning

[UNT90]

Soooo.......any new developments???

Cerebus taken out by a Russian sniper disguised as a Ukrainian soldier?

[Cerebus]

Cerebus taken out by a Russian sniper disguised as a Ukrainian soldier?

Family business to take care of. I know, real life keeps getting in the way.

This installment of CWT:TR-MAD is entitled: Nuclear > Conventional.

Look, the fall of the Soviet Union led to Western leaders realizing that conventional war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact would have been incredibly one sided. The Soviets had very good weapon systems, but they were rarely integrated, their training of the rank and file was very suspect, and many of their assumed capabilities were over blown in the first place. So to say that we would now roll over Russia in a conventional war is a no brainer. Only problem? ICBMs take all that advantage away.

Any large scale conventional warfare involving nuclear armed states carries a high risk of going nuclear. This is one of the main reason even though India and Pakistan can't stand each other, they fight each other by non conventional means, or limit themselves to small border skirmishes. They don't put their considerable conventional forces anywhere near each other.

Any large scale conventional warfare in which a nuclear armed state begins to lose their home territory has an even higher risk of going nuclear. Some countries, like France, have a stated policy that they will never be over run again and even half published lines at which invading conventional forces will be nuked on French soil. Better a radiated wasteland than part of Germany again.

So neither Obama or Putin is going to do anything to put large scale conventional forces in each others territory. For the moment, that includes Crimea. Putin moved faster than the west, he ha sold the west a bill of goods for over a decade now, and everyone has swallowed it. Too bad. What the US can do now is try to build sanctions against Russia and stage forces in NATO countries.

[Cerebus]

You have probably heard that "local Ukrainian ethnic Russians" are storming various governmental structures in the Eastern Ukraine. If you have any doubts that these people are actually Russian heavies sent to do the dirty work, take a look at these geniuses:

https://twitter.com/NatalieZubar/status/452924568160591873/photo/1/large

"Local Kharkov" stormed the Opera and Ballet Theatre (!), Thinking it - City Hall (!) And demanded the mayor! "

So these "local Russians accidentally stormed a theater and demanded to speak with the mayor.

[KRAM1]

You have probably heard that "local Ukrainian ethnic Russians" are storming various governmental structures in the Eastern Ukraine. If you have any doubts that these people are actually Russian heavies sent to do the dirty work, take a look at these geniuses:

https://twitter.com/NatalieZubar/status/452924568160591873/photo/1/large

So these "local Russians accidentally stormed a theater and demanded to speak with the mayor.

Heard they were also charter members of GMG.Com. PM me and I can give you their screen names/avatars.

Sense of humor anyone?

[Cerebus]

Some fodder for the hawks:

War is Coming: Why there is no appeasing Russia's mad king.

It should be abundantly clear now that Putin's initial plan of taking eastern Ukraine by mobilizing the Russian population there has failed. But that doesn't mean he's giving up. Russian strategists are talking about a "weekend of rage" that could involve some kind of armed siege of government buildings in southern and eastern Ukraine. If these local provocateurs and "self-defense forces" manage to hold these buildings as they did in Crimea, it might serve as a basis for further military intervention. Not that we should be surprised by this cynical playbook any more.
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History can be a useful guide for politicians: first, to help prevent new disasters, and second, to help react to disasters that inevitably happen anyway, despite the best laid plans. And yet, plenty of politicians are making the same mistakes they should have learned from decades ago. These days, I can't help but be reminded of Yogi Berra's famous quote, "It's déjà vu, all over again."

In Chechnya, tens of thousands of people were killed just to make Putin president and consolidate his power. Then, when the Colored Revolutions -- and their successful reforms -- became a menace to his rule, he invaded Georgia in order to kill this contagious model and again reconfirm his power. Now, as before, faced with eroding popularity in Russia, a shale gas revolution in North America, and the need for consistent port access to equip his allies in the Middle East, Putin attacked Ukraine and seized Crimea.
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And yet, even with these myriad examples, the West continues to misunderstand or excuse Putin's aggression. These days, many pundits are busy with soul-searching, with one of the constant refrains being how the West overreached with NATO and EU expansion, and how it needlessly provoked the Russian bear. The conclusion they come to is that part of the reason for Russia's behavior, however petulant, lies in Western activism. It's a particular kind of intellectual self-flagellation and, for Putin, a reflection of Western weakness that only emboldens him.
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The biggest casualty for the West will not be the countries which already are, or strive to be, Western allies, but rather the principles on which the Western world is built. The truth is that Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova are being punished by Russia for their desire to live in a free and democratic society -- one very different from the Putin model.
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The problem, perhaps, is due to the ambivalence of most regional experts that guide Western leaders' thinking. Their fundamental misreading of Russia is based on the fact that they don't understand the difference between the Soviet nomenclatura and modern Russia's corrupt elite. They grossly underestimate the attachment of Russian elites to their mansions and bank accounts in the West. Likewise, Moscow's key decision-makers are way more dependent financially and psychologically on the West than the bureaucrats of the Brezhnev era. Sanctions can successfully divide this group from Putin's inside circle, but they have to go further and exact greater pain.

And yet, despite President Barack Obama's rhetoric, the West -- particularly Europe -- appears reluctant to impose tougher sanctions. Unlike during the Cold War, Western companies draw much more benefit from Russia today, and thus they too will have to pay the price of sanctions. But after the first round of sanctions, stocks rebounded as markets were relieved that the measures didn't seem far-reaching. So how does the West expect to be taken seriously by Putin when even Wall Street isn't buying the seriousness of the Western alliance's intentions? The dilemma is simple: Is the West willing to pay this price now, or delay the decision and pay a much higher price in the future?

Edited April 7, 2014 by Cerebus

[H-towngreen]

So how long till we get another "vote" on a piece of Ukraine breaking off?

[Cerebus]

In Crimea, Russia Showcases a Rebooted Army

The soldiers guarding the entrances to the surrounded Ukrainian military base here just south of the capital, Simferopol, had little in common with their predecessors from past Russian military actions.

Lean and fit, few if any seemed to be conscripts. Their uniforms were crisp and neat, and their new helmets were bedecked with tinted safety goggles. They were sober.

And there was another indicator of an army undergoing an upgrade: compact encrypted radio units distributed at the small-unit level, including for soldiers on such routine duty as guard shifts beside machine-gun trucks. The radios are a telltale sign of a sweeping modernization effort undertaken five years ago by Vladimir V. Putin that has revitalized Russia’s conventional military abilities, frightening some of its former vassal states in Eastern Europe and forcing NATO to re-evaluate its longstanding view of post-Soviet Russia as a nuclear power with limited ground muscle.
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One Western official who analyzes military forces in the region said the differences from the past were striking. “It does seem to us that they are much more professional this time around,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “It’s impressive.”
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Since the start of 2012, salaries for most military personnel have roughly tripled, to between $700 and $1,150 a month for privates and sergeants — a respectable amount in Russian terms. The Kremlin has also expanded housing and education benefits.
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The Western official said the wide distribution of the encrypted radios suggested more than procurement. It might also mean that Russian noncommissioned officers were exercising more tactical latitude and decision-making, a deeper type of overhaul that could make Russian units nimbler and more effective.
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Out on the roads, Russian forces could also be seen deploying electronic-warfare platforms, including the new Tigr-M and the R-330Zh jamming station, which can block GPS and satellite telephone signals.

[Cerebus]

Spotty Russian Translation: Ukraine begins to restore previously stored MiG-29s,

In the battle of the Air Force of Ukraine introduced MiG-29 that had previously been subject to extended storage

"Experts of our team to quickly put into operation a certain number of aircraft that have been in reserve. We conduct these fighters circled. Soon will overfly several fighters that have been in storage, "- quoted by the press service of Defense Ministry of Ukraine brigade commander.

Aircrew Ivano-Frankivsk Brigade Combat Aviation last month significantly increased the intensity of flights. This allowed not only to "put on the wing" of young pilots, but also improve the proficiency of all aircrew teams, the press service of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine.

In related news, Ukraine is flying jets over the eastern areas of the country where "local ethnic Russians" have seized buildings.

The Ukrainian warplanes in the skies of Donetsk https://t.co/h6DC1dGjbs |DefenceUA #UnitedForUkraine pic.twitter.com/XNaJV55Xyy

— Defence Ministry UA (@DefenceUA)

April 7, 2014

[UNT90]

Some fodder for the hawks:

War is Coming: Why there is no appeasing Russia's mad king.

Solidly on point article.

[Cerebus]

Rogozin said that Russian army will be one of the best

On rearmament program, launched in 2011, until 2020 to spend 20 trillion rubles. According to plans, the share of modern technology in the army to grow to 70%.

Rearmament of the Russian army is going at a good pace, says Putin

"Our army and navy in 2020 will represent some of the best logistics and intelligence-driven <...> Armed Forces" - Rogozin said on Friday at a meeting with students in Novosibirsk.

Twenty trillion Rubles is about 560 billion real American dollars.

[Cerebus]

Another Russian translation: Japanese Air Force again raised the alarm because of reconnaissance aircraft Russian Federation

fighters of the Air Self-Defense Forces of Japan for the third time in the last three days went on alert due to the appearance of Russian military aircraft near the Japanese coast, told United Self-Defense Forces headquarters.

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The Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly stated that the planned flights over neutral waters in the Sea of ​​Japan and the Pacific Air Force Russian aircraft and naval aviation does not violate the airspace of Japan.

[Cerebus]

So how long till we get another "vote" on a piece of Ukraine breaking off?

СООБЩЕНИЕ ДЛЯ СМИ

Заявление МИД России о развитии ситуации на Украине

783-07-04-2014

В России внимательно наблюдают за происходящим в восточных и южных регионах Украины, в частности в Донецкой, Луганской и Харьковской областях.

Как неоднократно отмечала российская сторона, без реальной конституционной реформы на Украине, в рамках которой через федерализацию обеспечивались бы интересы всех регионов страны, сохранялся ее внеблоковый статус, закреплялась особая роль русского языка, трудно рассчитывать на долгосрочную стабилизацию украинского государства.

Если безответственное отношение к судьбе страны, к судьбе собственного народа со стороны политических сил, которые именуют себя украинской властью, продолжится, то Украина неизбежно будет сталкиваться со все новыми трудностями и кризисами.

Хватит кивать на Россию, обвиняя ее во всех бедах сегодняшней Украины. Украинский народ хочет услышать от Киева внятный ответ на все вопросы.

Пора прислушаться к этим законным требованиям.

Россия подтверждает свои предложения о международном содействии началу подлинного национального диалога всех политических и региональных сил Украины. Готовы участвовать в соответствующих усилиях вместе с зарубежными партнерами, включая министров иностранных дел государств, засвидетельствовавших соглашение об урегулировании кризиса на Украине от 21 февраля с.г.

PRESS RELEASE

Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on the situation in Ukraine

783-07-04-2014

Russia is closely watching what happens in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in particular in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions.

As has been noted, the Russian side, with no real constitutional reform in Ukraine, in which were provided through the federalization of the interests of all regions of the country, maintained its neutral status, fixes the special role of the Russian language, it is difficult to rely on long-term stabilization of the Ukrainian state.

If irresponsible attitude towards the fate of the country to the fate of his own people from the political forces that call themselves the Ukrainian authorities to continue, then Ukraine will inevitably be faced with all the new challenges and crises.

Enough to put the blame on Russia, accusing her of all the troubles of today's Ukraine. Ukrainian people want to hear from Kiev clear answer to all questions.

Time to listen to these legal requirements.

Russia confirms its proposal for international assistance top genuine national dialogue between all political and regional forces of Ukraine. Willing to participate in relevant efforts with foreign partners, including the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of States attested an agreement settling the crisis in Ukraine on February 21

[Cerebus]

Kerry: Russian forces, special agents behind "chaos" in eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours. http://t.co/yun4TNZAKL

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk)

April 8, 2014

Kerry: Russian involvement in east Ukraine a "contrived pretext for military intervention just as we saw in Crimea." http://t.co/yun4TNZAKL

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk)

April 8, 2014

Another video of pro-Russian separatists beating police in central #Kharkiv today http://t.co/g4gJAmZZw2 #Ukraine

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM)

April 8, 2014

[Cerebus]

Secretary General tells Estonia NATO is firmly committed to collective defence

“As we face the most serious security crisis in a generation, we are determined to keep NATO robust, ready and agile. Estonia, like every NATO member, can count on Allied solidarity at all times and against any threat”, the Secretary General said.

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“And we will make sure we have updated military plans, enhanced exercises and appropriate deployments”, he said.

The Secretary General also praised Estonia’s commitment to the Alliance. “It is now ten years since Estonia joined our Alliance. Throughout, Estonia has made NATO stronger, and NATO has made Estonia stronger”, the Secretary General said. ”Over the years, brave and professional Estonian troops have made a substantial contribution to our challenging mission in Afghanistan. Estonia has learnt tough lessons on cyber defence, and is now making a significant contribution to strengthen the Alliance efforts in this vital domain.”

[Cerebus]

April 7, #USA government published pics of #Russian troops at the border with #Ukraine @mikekomar |PR Post pic.twitter.com/MKomppbCW0

— Euromaidan PR (@EuromaidanPR)

April 7, 2014

[Cerebus]

Russian 'plans for war on Sweden' cause concern

Russia has intensified its espionage efforts in Sweden to include war preparations, Swedish security service Säpo warned on Monday.

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While stressing that such preparations did not necessarily mean anything dramatic, he said: "It's no secret that Russia is engaged in this. It's a little bit worrying."

Unge said Russia's intensified interest in Sweden was evidenced by simulated flight attacks on Swedish targets as well as attempts to recruit spies, increased signals intelligence, and the purchase of a significant number of maps.

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Unge added that the intensified spying was likely a result of Russia's involvement with Ukraine and Crimea, but the analyst remained tight-lipped about further details.

Sweden has a huge state investment in Ukrainian industries and has been one of the strongest critics of the annexation of Crimea in the EU.

[Cerebus]

Very good move, exactly what needs to happen.

Europe scrambles to break gas dependence on Russia, offers Ukraine military tie

European leaders have rushed through plans aimed at breaking the Kremlin’s grip on gas and energy supplies, marking a fresh escalation in the emerging Cold War between Russia and the West.
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The South Stream pipeline intended to link the EU to Russia through the Black Sea by 2018 is now “dead”, according to sources in Brussels, hitting contractors close to Mr Putin. EU staff are to come up with plans to shield Europe from energy blackmail by Russia within 90 days, finding ways to prevent frontline states being picked off one by one. Ukraine’s premier, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said in Brussels that the West must stop Russia deploying energy as a “new nuclear weapon".

[Cerebus]

[Cerebus]

FORBES: Respected Ukrainian Military Analyst Warns Russian Invasion Imminent (But First Need Dead Protesters)

“We, the group ‘Information Resistance,’ have received from our reliable sources the satisfactory confirmation of the statement of Ukrainian Foreign Ministry that the observed activity of the separatists in eastern Ukraine which has been lasting for the last three days is nothing but the beginning of the second phase of the scenario for the Russian invasion in our country.

In particular, according to our information, the separatist leaders, who follow the plan of General Headquarters of Russian Armed Forces, have been given the instructions to organize a “corridor” through the state border of Ukraine for passage of the convoys of military equipment from the Russian territory at the night of April 8-9.

Separatists also have received the orders to organize provocations with the casualties in the cities of the region which could be interpreted by the Russian side as “terror against the people organized by Ukrainian authorities.”

In addition, the coordinators of Russian Directorate General of Intelligence of General Headquarters of Russian Armed Forces, who work in the region, have instructed the separatists to use gunfire weapons in case the attempts to liberate the occupied administrative buildings are taken.

According to our information, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and special services are now taking the necessary measures to block the groups of the separatists.

State Border Service and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are carrying out the activities on blocking and defense of the state border in the respective areas.”

Drop your uh... talons, and grab your socks. The invasion clock is at 23:59.

[Cerebus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ccnbe294EA

Russian radar in Crimea.

[Censored by Laurie]

Gold.

[Army of Dad]

FORBES: Respected Ukrainian Military Analyst Warns Russian Invasion Imminent (But First Need Dead Protesters)

Drop your uh... talons, and grab your socks. The invasion clock is at 23:59.

All they need now is some Ukrainian uniforms and equipment so the Russians play dress up and attack a radio station in Russia...

[CMJ]

Not exactly related...but related.

http://news.yahoo.com/group-deputies-wants-gorbachev-investigated-over-soviet-break-124523136.html

[Cerebus]

BREAKING: Putin warns European leaders that gas dispute with Ukraine can threaten their supplies.

— The Associated Press (@AP)

April 10, 2014

This is why it is important to make the EU no longer dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas.

So far Putin has threatened to "cease gas deliveries" to:

• Germany
• France
• Turkey
• Poland
• Italy
• Austria
• Czech Republic
• Greece
• Bosnia
• Croatia
• Macedonia
• Bulgaria
• Moldova
• Romania
• Slovakia
• Hungary

[Cerebus]

NATO chief presses Russia to pull back troops from Ukraine border

Russia accused NATO on Thursday of using the Ukraine crisis to justify its existence by creating an imaginary threat, while the alliance’s head urged Moscow to pull its troops back from the Ukrainian border.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who accuses Moscow of amassing 40,000 combat-ready troops near Ukraine’s border, said: “We have seen the satellite images day after day.

“Russia is stirring up ethnic tensions in eastern Ukraine and provoking unrest. And Russia is using its military might to dictate that Ukraine should become a federal, neutral state. That is a decision which only Ukraine as a sovereign state can make,” Rasmussen told a news conference in Prague.

“I have this message to Russia: You have a choice to stop blaming others for your own actions, to stop massing your troops, to stop escalating this crisis and start engaging in a genuine dialogue,” he said.

If not?

AP Interview: US troops may be sent to Eastern Europe

NATO's top military commander in Europe, drafting countermoves to the Russian military threat against Ukraine, said Wednesday they could include deployment of American troops to alliance member states in Eastern Europe now feeling at risk.

U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove told The Associated Press he wouldn't "write off involvement by any nation, to include the United States."

Foreign ministers of the 28-nation alliance have given Breedlove until Tuesday to propose steps to reassure NATO members nearest Russia that other alliance countries have their back.

"Essentially what we are looking at is a package of land, air and maritime measures that would build assurance for our easternmost allies," Breedlove told the AP. "I'm tasked to deliver this by next week. I fully intend to deliver it early."

Asked again if American soldiers might be sent to NATO's front-line states closest to Russia, the four-star U.S. general said, "I would not write off contributions from any nation."