Kiev Burning

UNT90 · April 1, 2014

This was so surprising, I had to double check news sources just to make sure it wasn't an April Fools joke.

Ukraine agrees to host NATO war games

To go along with that:

NATO to bolster forces in east Europe, sees no Russian pullback

Just a few more tick marks on the Nuclear Armageddon Checklist.

Those exercises will never happen. Russian tanks will be in Keiv long before the date of the joint exercises.

Mean Green 93-98 · April 1, 2014

Those exercises will never happen. Russian tanks will be in Keiv long before the date of the joint exercises.

True. And this news probably only made the Russian timetable all the more rushed.

UNT90 · April 1, 2014

True. And this news probably only made the Russian timetable all the more rushed.

I think the exercise was scheduled with the US knowing that they would never happen. I wouldn't doubt that we have already traded Ukraine for the promise of no further Russian aggression.

As stupid as that would be.

KRAM1 · April 1, 2014

I think the exercise was scheduled with the US knowing that they would never happen. I wouldn't doubt that we have already traded Ukraine for the promise of no further Russian aggression.
As stupid as that would be.

"Peace in our time".....hmmmmmmmmmm....now just where and when has that been heard before?

All About UNT · April 2, 2014

Russian force distribution.

Love the irony of using German Stahlhelm helmets in the image

Army of Dad · April 2, 2014

Love the irony of using German Stahlhelm helmets in the image

Turnabout is fair play, the Russian propaganda machine loves to call its opponents fascists no matter who they are.

Cerebus · April 2, 2014

Today in CWT:TR-MAD Russian GPS and You.

So there are two fully functional satellite positioning systems in the world GPS, which we all know an love, and GLONASS. Russia began building their system during the cold war, and like GPS there is a "civilian band" and a high precision "military band."

America and it's allies are allowed use of GPS high precision data. Russia uses the GLONASS equivalent, and has recently allowed two other nations to access this info, India and Ukraine.

And then this happened:

Something very strange happened to GLONASS overnight. Between 0130 and 0800 most satellites went "illegal"/"failure" http://t.co/AP98EL5oVK
— Daniel Sandford (@BBCDanielS)
April 2, 2014

So what could have caused that? Most likely would be:

System failure: This would be a huge embarrassment to Russia, as Putin has made this a top priority. The FSA, the Russians version of NASA, uses about one third of its budget to launch, overhaul and upkeep the system.
Intentional Stoppage by Russia: If the Ukrainians already have the high resolution equipment, maybe the way to cut that off would be to down the system and reboot with some new parameters? You would think there would be a more elegant way to do this, but then again this is the country that brought us all steel Lada.
Intentional Stoppage by Outsiders: I'm talking about hacking. Prime candidate? 24th US Air Force "Cyber Command." A temporary stoppage would be a good way to get Russia's attention.

If you think that the last scenario is in the world of science fiction, it's not. Cyber Command are the guys behind stuxnet.

Stuxnet is a computer worm[1] that was discovered in June 2010. It was designed to attack Siemens Step7 software running on a Windows operating system.[2] Stuxnet reportedly ruined almost one-fifth of Iran's nuclear centrifuges by making them spin out of control while simultaneously making them appear to be running normally, by replaying the recorded system values of normal operation.[3]

Edited April 2, 2014 by Cerebus

Cerebus · April 2, 2014

Russia could achieve Ukraine incursion in 3-5 days - NATO general

Russia has massed all the forces it needs on Ukraine's border if it were to decide to carry out an "incursion" into the country, and it could achieve its objective in three to five days, NATO's top military commander said on Wednesday.

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The Russian force has aircraft and helicopter support as well as field hospitals and electronic warfare capabilities - "the entire suite that would be required to successfully have an incursion into Ukraine, should the decision be made," Breedlove said.

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"We are going to have to look at how our alliance now is prepared for a different paradigm, a different rule set... We will need to rethink our force posture, our force positioning, our force provisioning, readiness, etc," Breedlove said.

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The Ukraine crisis has reopened debate within NATO about whether its members need to spend more on defense.

Many of them have cut military budgets in response to the financial crisis, with only a handful reaching NATO's target of spending 2 percent of economic output on defense.

Cerebus · April 2, 2014

S-300s SAMs deployed in Crimea. A really nice missile, the problem being they are not tied into a central integrated radar system.

That means they have to light the sky with their own radars.

The US would tomahawk/B-2/HARM them to (literal, not figurative) death. The Ukrainians have no way to remove these. This is really bad news for any jets the Ukrainians could get in the air.

ETA: What one looks like on parade.

Edited April 2, 2014 by Cerebus

Cerebus · April 2, 2014

More Russian forces arrive in Simferpol, from yesterday:

Third gen T-80. Russia has about 3500 of these in active service. Saw a lot of time in Afghanistan. 2nd/4th Guards MRD are known to have them in the area. Considered a top secret weapon. Not exported to other Warsaw Pact countries.

Holy Shit: a T-64. Why is that important? Russia doesn't have any, they scrapped the last of theirs in 2012. Ukraine has/had 2500 of them. This means this is probably a tank seized from a Ukrainian unit formerly stationed in Crimea.

Holy Shit II: That's a lot of general. One, that's a fat joke. Two, his rank is equivalent to an American O-10, a four star general.

Cerebus · April 2, 2014

Alright this thread is too Cerebus heavy. Let's get a discussion started:

Would you be in favor of moving significant military assets into Poland and the Baltic States? Why or why not.

Censored by Laurie · April 2, 2014

Stuxnet reportedly ruined almost one-fifth of Iran's nuclear centrifuges by making them spin out of control while simultaneously making them appear to be running normally, by replaying the recorded system values of normal operation.[3]

Dude. Keanu did that like 20 years ago.

Army of Dad · April 2, 2014

Alright this thread is too Cerebus heavy. Let's get a discussion started:

Would you be in favor of moving significant military assets into Poland and the Baltic States? Why or why not.

Do you mean construct bases and permanently station heavy units in Poland? I would say yes, but no to anything more than maneuvers in the Baltic states. Should the merde ever hit the fan any troops stationed in the Baltic states will be overrun because they will not have enough depth for retreat.

We made a commitment to defend our NATO allies and having the force to deter aggression much like Western Europe during the Cold War may enable us to do that without ever having to actually fight. Additionally, bases in the newer NATO countries will also reward them for picking our side.

forevereagle · April 2, 2014

Alright this thread is too Cerebus heavy. Let's get a discussion started:

Would you be in favor of moving significant military assets into Poland and the Baltic States? Why or why not.

Define significant. I would be in favor of moving forces into Poland and the Baltic States if they ask and our allies are similarly committed to moving troops (we shouldn't be the only ones moving troops around the area, others should bear some of the burden as well). I don't know if I would move a "significant" force there now, but I would have more units ready to mobilize if needed. I think for now, it would be more of a show that we are prepared to stop this than a move to prepare for an imminent military action. Moving too many troops in doesn't help diffuse the situation, but we should be posturing ourselves to not look weak or that we are not treating this seriously. We should be pursuing a non-violent solution while preparing for the worst. This can escalate quickly and we should be ready for that.

Edited April 2, 2014 by forevereagle

MeanGreenTexan · April 2, 2014

Alright this thread is too Cerebus heavy. Let's get a discussion started:

Would you be in favor of moving significant military assets into Poland and the Baltic States? Why or why not.

Don't we have a pretty significant base in that area anyway? Kaiserslautern/Ramstein.

H-towngreen · April 2, 2014

If moved with other NATO countries then yes. Going alone, no.

KRAM1 · April 2, 2014

The discussion that is missing here is the one about the very real risks Putin is taking. His military looks massive and well equipped. It is not. No way to win a shoot-out with the west and it's allies. Putin is banking on the fact of the West's reluctance to get too involved.

Then, there is the fact that many citizens of Russia are not happy about this crap. The economy will suffer, foreign investment in Russia will slow, Russian goods will fall out of favor, tourism will suffer, etc., etc. too many folks here seem to want to only focus on the military moves. The Soviet Union did not fall because of armed conflict. Russia cannot afford another arms race with the West. Putin knows Russia will lose again.

Question is...and always has been...how will the West respond? Weak or strong? Putin is counting on weak. So far he is correct. We will see how this plays out soon enough. The longer the West waits to impose any real sanctions, the stronger Putin's position becomes. But, inside the Russian business community and a good piece of the citizenry this is not playing well. We shall see...we shall, indeed, see.

UNT90 · April 2, 2014

Agree with KRAM. Sanctions should have been much, much stronger.

Yes, we need a heavy military presence in Poland and the Baltic states. The only way to stop Putin is to convince him we mean business. It may already be too late to affect his opinion. Hopefully we can affect the opinion of the Russian people.

And yes, American forces would mop the floor with our Russian counterparts in a conventional shooting war. We are technologically superior and have been fighting a war for the past 13 years, so we are also much more experienced in combat.

Russia's shear numbers are extremely frightening, though. If Putin has no regard for casualties, the Russians could win while standing on their countrymen's corpses.

Army of Dad · April 3, 2014

Agree with KRAM. Sanctions should have been much, much stronger.
Yes, we need a heavy military presence in Poland and the Baltic states. The only way to stop Putin is to convince him we mean business. It may already be too late to affect his opinion. Hopefully we can affect the opinion of the Russian people.
And yes, American forces would mop the floor with our Russian counterparts in a conventional shooting war. We are technologically superior and have been fighting a war for the past 13 years, so we are also much more experienced in combat.
Russia's shear numbers are extremely frightening, though. If Putin has no regard for casualties, the Russians could win while standing on their countrymen's corpses.

Yes we've been fighting, but we have been fighting a VERY different kind of war.

As for Russian numbers, they have already proven their willingness to win by throwing numbers at a technologically superior foe.

KRAM1 · April 3, 2014

Yes we've been fighting, but we have been fighting a VERY different kind of war.
As for Russian numbers, they have already proven their willingness to win by throwing numbers at a technologically superior foe.

Methinks you forgot the pasting the old USSR took in Afghanistan. Russia's military is much weaker and less equipped. And the Russian soldier of today is not the soldier Stalin was able to blindly send unarmed into the fray. The Russian military of today is not Stalin's WWII military...and they know they are not fighting for the survival of the fatherland in the Crimea. Did you not follow what has happened to Russia in the skirmishes it has had with a few of its "breakaway" areas? Not the same military by any stretch. Putin knows this...he also knows that so far the West has shown a clear unwillingness to do anything significant in response. His bet is placed for the West to continue to show weakness and that he can get what he wants done before internal problems cause him more than a little heartache. It is no where near all sweet smelling roses at home politically or economically for Comrade Putin.

Army of Dad · April 3, 2014

Methinks you forgot the pasting the old USSR took in Afghanistan. Russia's military is much weaker and less equipped. And the Russian soldier of today is not the soldier Stalin was able to blindly send unarmed into the fray. The Russian military of today is not Stalin's WWII military...and they know they are not fighting for the survival of the fatherland in the Crimea. Did you not follow what has happened to Russia in the skirmishes it has had with a few of its "breakaway" areas? Not the same military by any stretch. Putin knows this...he also knows that so far the West has shown a clear unwillingness to do anything significant in response. His bet is placed for the West to continue to show weakness and that he can get what he wants done before internal problems cause him more than a little heartache. It is no where near all sweet smelling roses at home politically or economically for Comrade Putin.

For the most part, the Russian soldiers and people at large know only what their government tells them. The Russian system is brutal and clumsy, in propaganda and in war. That doesn't mean they are not dangerous or that we would 'mop the floor' with them. The old saying that we are always prepared to fight the last war and not the next war is still mostly true. Our ground forces have changed alignment from large heavy divisions to smaller and more flexible units. Fine for a counterinsurgency campaign, less than ideal for open warfare with a large opponent on the steppes/plains of Europe.

I think we could still win. Russian numbers, fighting close to their own supply areas will make the victory a costly one and not as quick as bowling over the Iraqis. While I believe in our air forces, a war with the Russians would be the first in a very long time where it would be a real fight to gain and keep aerial superiority. Our planes, weapon systems, and pilots are better then theirs, but the gap is closer than any other adversary we've had in a couple of generations.

KRAM1 · April 3, 2014

For the most part, the Russian soldiers and people at large know only what their government tells them. The Russian system is brutal and clumsy, in propaganda and in war. That doesn't mean they are not dangerous or that we would 'mop the floor' with them. The old saying that we are always prepared to fight the last war and not the next war is still mostly true. Our ground forces have changed alignment from large heavy divisions to smaller and more flexible units. Fine for a counterinsurgency campaign, less than ideal for open warfare with a large opponent on the steppes/plains of Europe.
I think we could still win. Russian numbers, fighting close to their own supply areas will make the victory a costly one and not as quick as bowling over the Iraqis. While I believe in our air forces, a war with the Russians would be the first in a very long time where it would be a real fight to gain and keep aerial superiority. Our planes, weapon systems, and pilots are better then theirs, but the gap is closer than any other adversary we've had in a couple of generations.

Ever hear of this thing called the internet? Not nearly as easy to keep dear comrade from hearing the news these days and the previous years of opening Russia up to the outside world did much to change views. And, who is suggesting a "hot" war? Sanctions, if handled properly and with conviction could well do the trick. The "average" Russian is much more in tune with the outside world than in Papa Joe's day. Not so easy any longer...a "danger" Putin is very much aware of I might add.

Anyway...like I said, we will all see soon enough.

UNT90 · April 4, 2014

I think we could still win. Russian numbers, fighting close to their own supply areas will make the victory a costly one and not as quick as bowling over the Iraqis. While I believe in our air forces, a war with the Russians would be the first in a very long time where it would be a real fight to gain and keep aerial superiority. Our planes, weapon systems, and pilots are better then theirs, but the gap is closer than any other adversary we've had in a couple of generations.

While you are correct, we are basically moving from a Seattle Seahawks vs McClean Middle School matchup to a Seattle Seahawks vs MTSU matchup.

While the opponent is vastly improved, they are still woefully behind in technology.

I also disagree about air superiority. I think we would own the skies inside of a week. Assuming, of course, we dedicate a large enough aerial force. Again, Russia could overwhelm us early with shear numbers, much like on the ground, but I think we would adjust and unleash hell on them in short order.

You also should remember what we did to Saddam's Army, which was operating on 2nd generation Russian technology. Command structure and frontline troop training and readiness were obviously nothing compared to the Russian Army. But the point is we no doubt know how to fight a traditional war and could transition on very short order.

The fact the Russia is scavenging left over Ukraine military equipment should also tell you about their technological situation.

UNT90 · April 4, 2014

Ever hear of this thing called the internet? Not nearly as easy to keep dear comrade from hearing the news these days and the previous years of opening Russia up to the outside world did much to change views. And, who is suggesting a "hot" war? Sanctions, if handled properly and with conviction could well do the trick. The "average" Russian is much more in tune with the outside world than in Papa Joe's day. Not so easy any longer...a "danger" Putin is very much aware of I might add.
Anyway...like I said, we will all see soon enough.

I actually expect Putin to shutdown access to the Internet shortly, blaming "western propaganda and it's poisonous effects on the mind of the young Russian" or some such nonsense.

Moving toward straight up Iran.