Kiev Burning

[Cerebus]

WAPO: Ukraine’s wake-up call for NATO

For years leaders of this Baltic state were an irritant at NATO meetings, insisting to eye-rolling ambassadors from Western Europe that Vladimir Putin’s Russia was a revanchist power bent on destabilizing and dominating its neighbors. Now they voice grim satisfaction that what was once dismissed as paranoia has become the West’s conventional wisdom.
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A threat that once was dismissed as imaginary now looks all too real here. Like Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia have large Russian-speaking populations, concentrated in areas close to the Russian border. Both countries have been accused by Moscow of mistreating this minority. In 2007, Estonia’s removal of a Soviet monument led first to rioting by Russian speakers and then to what appeared to be a massive, Moscow-sponsored cyberattack.

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“NATO cannot afford the Crimea or east Ukraine scenario in any town or any border of any member state,” Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas told me. “That would be the end of NATO.” It’s probable that Putin has had the same thought.

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“If the first green man appears in Narva, the government knows exactly how to respond,” Maj. Gen. Riho Terras told the Lennart Meri security conference. “You have to shoot the first green man, and the second will not come.”

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Then there is the threat of troops on the border. In 2009 and again last year, Russia staged major exercises simulating an invasion of the Baltic states by more than 20,000 troops. That’s more than the combined armies of the three countries, which also possess no tanks or fighter planes. Said Terras: “I am absolutely sure that we need heavy armor capability. Russia understands heavy metal and power. Power is not cyber. Power is tanks.”

The chances that Estonia will get that deterrent, either on its own or by a NATO deployment, don’t look particularly good. In Brussels, Germany, France and Italy are among the governments lined up against a permanent NATO deployment in the Baltics; a frustrated Eastern European ambassador dubbed them the “white-flag coalition.”

[Cerebus]

Look what just showed up in Estonia yesterday:

Part of the 173rd Airborne Brigade.

Again, some armor would be nice.

[Cerebus]

Thoughts: Russians continue to F Up the narrative of "local militia" and "concerned volunteers" by having these guys have their equipment in full view.

I had posted pictures of these "militiamen" wearing the latest Russian Future Warrior helmets that only the top elite units were given.

Here you can see that 1) these volunteers are wearing the latest Spetsnaz camo pattern, with insignia removed, and 2) that one dude has a RPG30 slung over his shoulder, which had been in the Russian service for less than a year, and again is only issued to their top elite units.

Spetsnaz.

[Cerebus]

Defense One: Why Ukraine Has Already Lost The Cyberwar, Too

Don’t wait for cyberwar between Ukraine and Russia to break out ahead of the actual shooting. Ukraine already lost that, too.

Russia’s access stems from two factors. The first: Ukraine’s communications intercept system, which allows the Ukrainian government to tap into civilian electronic communications, very closely resembles the Russian intercept system called SORM. SORM was developed by the Russian KGB as a means to surveil electronic communications within the Soviet Union. Essentially SORM serves as a backdoor for intelligence spooks to listen in on electronic communications.

Think of the NSA’s PRISM program, but far more robust in terms of capability and with far fewer legal restrictions on its use. The current iteration, SORM 3, allows the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB, backdoor access into landline, mobile and email communications.

[H-towngreen]

Thoughts: Russians continue to F Up the narrative of "local militia" and "concerned volunteers" by having these guys have their equipment in full view.

I had posted pictures of these "militiamen" wearing the latest Russian Future Warrior helmets that only the top elite units were given.

Here you can see that 1) these volunteers are wearing the latest Spetsnaz camo pattern, with insignia removed, and 2) that one dude has a RPG30 slung over his shoulder, which had been in the Russian service for less than a year, and again is only issued to their top elite units.

Spetsnaz.

Everytime I see an armed volunteer or militia I'm always surprised at how well armed they are. Certainly not what one would expect a volunteer to look like. haha

[Cerebus]

He has had weeks to do so already. He hasn't. I think Putin has realized he can get what he wants without starting the shit storm of sending in Russian troops.

Pro-Russia separatists seize regional prosecutor's office, TV-center in Luhansk - @Reuters witness

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

April 29, 2014

Luhansk today: Govt, AG office, TV-center seized by separatists, ongoing police HQ storming pic via Reuters pic.twitter.com/brSZRlkQhv

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

April 29, 2014

Face-off in progress at Interior Min police building in #Lugansk as police resist separatist attempt to seize building. #Ukraine

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

April 29, 2014

Seems Luhansk unrest has moved to the regional police headquarters http://t.co/lSK470FWJF

— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne)

April 29, 2014

PHOTO: Armed self-def members take cover, aim amid reports of shooting from #Lugansk police HQ http://t.co/98DFhR9oZz pic.twitter.com/Wc18Y2WhW4

— RT (@RT_com)

April 29, 2014

This how Luhansk police headquarters looks now via @evgenijevgik http://t.co/d0MlwcJsak

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

April 29, 2014

#Lugansk: Interior Min police have disarmed. Massive crowd of separatists have formed corridor in front of building to allow police to exit

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

April 29, 2014

Ukraine separatists seize second provincial capital, fire on police

[UNT90]

Pick up a history book. It's called an insurgency. We just spent a decade fighting one.

Ukrainians have a long history of fighting them, and let's not forget the Tartars, who have sent several thousand men to fight in Syria over last few years.

Let's not forget Russia is ALREADY fighting a Muslim insurgency, and those guys would love to expand it to Ukraine, and could do it easily via connections with the Muslim Crimean Tartars.

Of course the Russians would roll over the Ukrainian Army. Just like the US did in Iraq. Then the insurgency starts.

He has had weeks to do so already. He hasn't. I think Putin has realized he can get what he wants without starting the shit storm of sending in Russian troops.

I don't think the Ukraines will have any insurgency if there is an invasion. You make the assumption Putin will play by the same rules we did in Iraq. He won't.

Suicide bombing traced back to Muslim extremist? 50 Muslims from the suicide bombers family and neighborhood will be executed as "conspirators" to send a message.

There was a reason there was no insurgency in E. Germany, Romania, Hungary,UKRAINE etc during the Cold War years.

I agree with you that Putin wants land access to the Black Sea, and I don't see how he does it without invading.

Edited April 29, 2014 by UNT90

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

I don't think the Ukraines will have any insurgency if there is an invasion. You make the assumption Putin will play by the same rules we did in Iraq. He won't.

Suicide bombing traced back to Muslim extremist? 50 Muslims from the suicide bombers family and neighborhood will be executed as "conspirators" to send a message.

There was a reason there was no insurgency in E. Germany, Romania, Hungary,UKRAINE etc during the Cold War years.

I agree with you that Putin wants land access to the Black Sea, and I don't see how he does it without invading.

..

They already have Russian land access to the Black Sea... remember Sochi .... they don't have land access to Crimea. It is disjoint.

[Army of Dad]

There was a reason there was no insurgency in E. Germany, Romania, Hungary,UKRAINE etc during the Cold War years.

Actually, there were insurgencies in most of the countries (though probably the strongest one was in Poland). All of the budding insurgencies were killed off when they failed to receive major support from outside the country. The Russians were brutal and surprisingly efficient in destroying the insurgencies and pretty much had them all wrapped up before they built the Berlin Wall.

[Cerebus]

Suicide bombing traced back to Muslim extremist? 50 Muslims from the suicide bombers family and neighborhood will be executed as "conspirators" to send a message.

There are active insurgencies in the Russian republics of North Ossesita, Kabardino-Balkaria, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia. Though Russian state controlled media does a good job of downplaying it, even the Russian interior ministry acknowledges 400 terrorist incidents in 2013 alone. The real number is probably much higher.

Insurgencies are hard to snuff out. We just spent a decade in Iraq and Muqtada al-Sadr is still in charge of the Mahdi Army. The Haqquanni Network has fought the Afghans, then the Russians, then the Pakistanis, then the Americans, and now the Pakistanis and the Afghans at the same time. That's 40 years, two incarnations of the local government, a regional power, and both of the cold war super powers. I'm not even going to bring up the Vietcong because SE-66 will start having seizures.

Really this is my last post on the possible insurgencies, if you don't believe by now I am not going to waste any more time trying to convince you. Just remember there are Ukrainians who fought with the insurgency in Afghanistan, and there are others fighting in Syria right now. There are thousands of them with training and experience on how to bleed a large occupying force.

I agree with you that Putin wants land access to the Black Sea, and I don't see how he does it without invading.

He doesn't want land access to the Black Sea, Russia borders it for hundreds of miles. He wants direct land access to Crimea and to the part of Moldova in which he is festering dissent right now, and which he is trying to get to break away.

[Cerebus]

Kiev City Government: For the attention of residents and guests of the capital!

Shaky Translation:

For the attention of residents and guests of the capital! On the night of April 30 to May 1 in Kyiv will take place tactically-specific training . As part of the exercise assumes that the city will move a column of military equipment. Please note that the deployment of personnel and technology will be at the center of the city.

[Cerebus]

WSJ: IMF Spilimbergo: Russia Is in Recession Now

MOSCOW—Russia has already slid into recession and its central bank should be ready to tighten monetary policy, while the government needs to consider tightening fiscal conditions, the head of the International Monetary Fund's mission to Russia, Antonio Spilimbergo, said Wednesday.

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"Current projections are contingent on a gradual resolution of geopolitical tensions. Continued conflict could lead to additional sanctions and deterioration of confidence that could reduce investment and growth further," the IMF said in a statement.

The IMF welcomed the Bank of Russia's move to raise rates for the second time in two months last week, and said that a tighter monetary stance is required in the near-term to anchor inflationary expectations. The IMF sees 2014 inflation at above 6%, exceeding the central bank target of 5%.

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Russia has already lost more than $60 billion in net capital outflow in the first quarter of this year and the IMF now sees 2014 net outflow at $100 billion.

[Cerebus]

A Note About Paywalls, or the Scoundrels Web Resources.

I've received some message that the articles I point to are sometimes behind paywalls. Here are two quick tips on how to get around those, in a nice legal manner:

1) Most sites will show you the headline, then a few lines of text, then restrict the rest. Copy the headline, paste it into the searchbar at news.google.com and presto, full article.

2) If that fails to work, login to your google docs account. Create a new doc, paste the url into that doc, then click the link. Again, magic.

The first works because Google and many large news site have an operating agreement (google pays them) to allow most content to be directly accessed from a search. The second works because most companies who don't have that agreement still want googlebots to index their site, the link from google docs looks like a googlebot.

Keep in mind none of these will work if the people don't want google to index their content, but most news sites want that desperately.

[Cerebus]

https://twitter.com/NahlahAyed/status/461482612998291456/photo/1

Pro Russian confirms on roadblock #slovyansk accreditation not needed anymore #ukraine #donbas

— Pierre Crom (@PierreCrom)

April 30, 2014

Lesson of 1920 Poland and 1939 Finland for #ukraine: Fight Moscow head on for your country. No one will do it for you. Or lose it.

— Matthew Kaminski (@KaminskiMK)

April 30, 2014

https://twitter.com/NahlahAyed/status/461450666981195777/photo/1

[UNT90]

There are active insurgencies in the Russian republics of North Ossesita, Kabardino-Balkaria, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia. Though Russian state controlled media does a good job of downplaying it, even the Russian interior ministry acknowledges 400 terrorist incidents in 2013 alone. The real number is probably much higher.

Insurgencies are hard to snuff out. We just spent a decade in Iraq and Muqtada al-Sadr is still in charge of the Mahdi Army. The Haqquanni Network has fought the Afghans, then the Russians, then the Pakistanis, then the Americans, and now the Pakistanis and the Afghans at the same time. That's 40 years, two incarnations of the local government, a regional power, and both of the cold war super powers. I'm not even going to bring up the Vietcong because SE-66 will start having seizures.

Really this is my last post on the possible insurgencies, if you don't believe by now I am not going to waste any more time trying to convince you. Just remember there are Ukrainians who fought with the insurgency in Afghanistan, and there are others fighting in Syria right now. There are thousands of them with training and experience on how to bleed a large occupying force.

He doesn't want land access to the Black Sea, Russia borders it for hundreds of miles. He wants direct land access to Crimea and to the part of Moldova in which he is festering dissent right now, and which he is trying to get to break away.

Yes, I meant access to the Russian bases in Crimea.

Again, you talk about the way WE do things. Putin will be much much much more brutal, and, in turn, much more effective in quelling and insurgency.

We are repeating a cycle we saw post-WWII. Do you really think there will ba any support for any insurgency from the US or Europe if we aren't willing to stand up directly to the Russian bear?

I think not, especially for the next 2 1/2 years.

[Cerebus]

Again, you talk about the way WE do things. Putin will be much much much more brutal, and, in turn, much more effective in quelling and insurgency.

Are you even reading what I am posting? Who do you think has been fighting these insurgencies in the North Caucuses? Putin. His entire time in office. The Moscow Apartment Bombings that killed 300 happened 3 months after he took office in 1999. He has gone to Chechnya, bombed them flat, indiscriminately killed thousands and declared victory TWICE. Guess who pulled off the Volgograd bombings last year? One guess.

He hasn't killed Chechen resolve in those 15 years, he has strengthened it. A cousin of mine got to meet some nice Chechen gentlemen during Second Fallujah... and by "meet" I mean "threw satchel charges at."

I don't know who has more of a man crush on Putin, you are SE-66. Putin isn't Lex Luthor. He's an autocratic despot, he just hoodwinked the west because they all thought the Cold War was over. However, I do think he is smart enough not to want to start another insurgency in Western Ukraine. His "green men" are using ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine to get what he wants anyway.

We are repeating a cycle we saw post-WWII. Do you really think there will ba any support for any insurgency from the US or Europe if we aren't willing to stand up directly to the Russian bear?

How much support are the Chechen's getting from the US or Europe? They seem to be doing fine.

You are also misreading what happened with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) post WWII. Yes, they resisted the Polish, then the Germans and then the Soviets, and yes the Soviets cracked down hard on them, but the Soviets actually sweet talked them into working with them.

Between pouring millions into development of the Ukraine, giving into some of UPA's demands, and placing ethnic Ukrainians in charge of various local power structures they were able to strike a deal. Don't forget the Soviet's at that time also had the "we saved you from the German" card to play.

The modern Ukrainian isn't going to fall for that. The ethnic Ukrainians have already decided they want to Westernize, and they don't want to be Russian toadies.

[Cerebus]

France24: Pro-Russian rebels attack Ukraine ‘unity’ rally in Donetsk

Video and photo gallery at link.

[Cerebus]

Guardian: Kiev powerless as east slips out of its control

Ukraine's beleaguered government appears to have lost control of law and order in the east of the country as pro-Russian separatists seized control of state buildings in Horlivka, almost unopposed by police.

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But in recent days Kiev's tentative grip on local law enforcement in the east appears to have slipped completely. In Luhansk riot police stood passively in a courtyard, kettled in by separatists armed with bats and hammers. "The regional leadership does not control its police force," Stanislav Rechynsky, an aide to the interior minister in Kiev, told Reuters. "The local police did nothing."

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Standing next to their patrol car, still striped with Ukraine's blue and yellow colours, the officers reeled off a list of grievances. These included low pay – $200-$250 (£120) a month. (One policewoman, Svetlana, said: "I'm supposed to give my life for this. Who is going to come to my mother afterwards and say "thanks for your daughter?") They also complained that a mistrustful Kiev had confiscated their service revolvers three weeks ago. "I can't exactly defend myself," Yevgeny said, showing off his empty holster.

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Speaking at the Atlantic Council think-tank, Kerry said Nato is facing a defining moment in the strength of its alliance. He pledged anew that Nato partners including those that border Ukraine or Russia would be defended to the hilt if their sovereignty is threatened. "Nato territory is inviolable," Kerry said in his 20-minute speech. "We will defend every single piece of it."

[UNT90]

Guardian: Kiev powerless as east slips out of its control

Hope we mean it this time.

[Cerebus]

Telegraph - Ukraine crisis: a 'no win-win' economic situation

Video at link.

This guy gets it. It's insane for the EU to rely on Gazprom because it is not a company, it is Putin's foreign policy tool. They need a coherent energy plan.

Worth watching.

[UNT90]

Are you even reading what I am posting? Who do you think has been fighting these insurgencies in the North Caucuses? Putin. His entire time in office. The Moscow Apartment Bombings that killed 300 happened 3 months after he took office in 1999. He has gone to Chechnya, bombed them flat, indiscriminately killed thousands and declared victory TWICE. Guess who pulled off the Volgograd bombings last year? One guess.

He hasn't killed Chechen resolve in those 15 years, he has strengthened it. A cousin of mine got to meet some nice Chechen gentlemen during Second Fallujah... and by "meet" I mean "threw satchel charges at."

I don't know who has more of a man crush on Putin, you are SE-66. Putin isn't Lex Luthor. He's an autocratic despot, he just hoodwinked the west because they all thought the Cold War was over. However, I do think he is smart enough not to want to start another insurgency in Western Ukraine. His "green men" are using ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine to get what he wants anyway.

How much support are the Chechen's getting from the US or Europe? They seem to be doing fine.

You are also misreading what happened with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) post WWII. Yes, they resisted the Polish, then the Germans and then the Soviets, and yes the Soviets cracked down hard on them, but the Soviets actually sweet talked them into working with them.

Between pouring millions into development of the Ukraine, giving into some of UPA's demands, and placing ethnic Ukrainians in charge of various local power structures they were able to strike a deal. Don't forget the Soviet's at that time also had the "we saved you from the German" card to play.

The modern Ukrainian isn't going to fall for that. The ethnic Ukrainians have already decided they want to Westernize, and they don't want to be Russian toadies.

Insurgencies, or domestic terrorism (depending on which side you are on) depend on 2 things. Media coverage in the country the terrorist are targeting and government reaction to that media coverage.

There is no chance of an insurgency ever driving out Russian forces in Urkraine. Putin doesn't care about world perception, and perception at home is controlled(through a state run media).

I hope you are right.

[Cerebus]

So things are not going well through out Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Busy at work but I'll try to update later today.

[H-towngreen]

So things are not going well through out Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Busy at work but I'll try to update later today.

Not well at all

[forevereagle]

Putin Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results. There is a big oops that is very revealing.

[All About UNT]

Some footage of the street battles that took place in Odessa before the fire broke out.

part 2 the Pro-Kiev elements roll out the Heavy Artillery at 5:10

The fire was a result of both sides throwing Molotovs at each other and obviously things got out of hand.