Kiev Burning

mattmartin817 · March 23, 2014

Most importantly though, Barry got his bracket filled out properly and has shared it with us, and Michelle was able to take the girls on yet another all expense paid gazzilion dollar vacation, this time to China.
Rick

And, Benghazi. Amiright?

Cerebus · March 24, 2014

Alright, everyone shut up. I survived and I am going to start updating this thread, which I am now calling:

COLD WAR TWO: The Re-Mutually Assured Destructioning.

Good News: I've already sold the movie rights to CWT:T-RMAD!

Bad News: They've option Corey Feldman to play UNT90.

The part of Cerebus will be played by Guillermo Díaz.

Cerebus · March 24, 2014

First off, there has been a ton of news updates, so lets get some of them out of the way.

National Security Council instructed the Defense Ministry to withdraw Ukrainian troops from the Crimea

In addition, he said, the National Security Council instructed the Cabinet to carry out the evacuation of military families , which is a real threat to life and health.

We all know that is a little late, since the Russian's have already stormed and taken all the military bases in the Crimea:

Acknowledging defeat, Ukraine pulls troops from Crimea

Ukrainian troops and their families began evacuating from Crimea on Monday, as Kiev effectively acknowledged defeat by Russian forces who stormed one of the last of their remaining bases on the peninsula.
"Yesterday we had an agreement: we would lower our flag and the Russians would raise theirs. And this morning the Russians attacked, firing live ammunition. We had no weapons. We did not fire a round," said one marine, Ruslan, who was with his wife Katya and 9-month-old son.
Troops hugged each other in farewell. Some chanted "Hurra! Hurra!" in defiance. One marine in full uniform who declined to identify himself wept and blamed the government in Kiev for the chaotic end to the standoff.
"This is all Kiev's fault. We are defeated. We suffered and ministers in Kiev did not bother to issue us a proper order," he said. "They smeared our flag and honour."

So the annexation of ~~the Sudetenland~~ the Crimea seems to be complete. Now I have said all along that by itself, the region isn't enough for Putin to go through all the hassle of annexing. What he really wants/needs is in the western half of the Ukraine. Now, UNT90 asked me why Putin wouldn't directly challenge a NATO state. I'll answer that later today, but in effect NATO is a security for influence mechanism that all of Western Europe (except France) is dependent on.

So, for the moment, moving into a NATO country is out of the question. Moving directly into Western Ukraine is probably out of the question for Putin right now because it would lead directly to REAL economic sanctions from the EU. So what is a land hungry autocrat to do with his spare time? How about the

Trans-Dniestr?

The TD is a semi autonomous region of Moldova, and abuts the Crimea. This would allow Putin to 1) flex some more Russian muscle, 2) give some credence to his whole "I am just looking out for Russian speakers" and 3) desensitize the world to Russia just rolling through borders. By shear coincidence Russia already has trooped massed at the border:

NATO says Russia has big force at Ukraine's border, worries over Transdniestria

NATO's top military commander said on Sunday that Russia had built up a large force on Ukraine's eastern border and he was worried Moscow may be eyeing Moldova's mainly Russian-speaking separatist Transdniestria region after annexing Crimea.

"You cannot defend against that if you are not there to defend against it. So I think we need to think about our allies, the positioning of our forces in the alliance and the readiness of those forces ... such that we can be there to defend against it if required, especially in the Baltics and other places."

NATO had tried to make Russia a partner but "now it is very clear that Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner," Breedlove said.
"If Russia is worried about a country moving towards the West, the way to solve that is an incursion, a frozen conflict, and now no one wants to think about bringing that nation aboard into NATO because it might mean conflict with Russia," he said.
He said Russia's incursion into Crimea had run "very much like clockwork" in contrast to its 2008 intervention in Georgia, which suffered from a lot of military failings.

In other words, Russia has had a plan at least since 2008, and it seems to be coming to fruition. Sooner or later Putin will reach for the rest of the Ukraine.

Ukraine Official: Chances of War With Russia ‘Growing’

Ukraine’s top diplomat warned Sunday that the chances of war with Russia “are growing” due to the buildup of Moscow’s forces along his country’s eastern border.
He said Ukraine’s first approach to the Russian threat on the frontier would be diplomatic. But, he said, “people are also ready to defend their homeland.”
Also Sunday, a pair of senators said Congress should act quickly to pass an aid package for Ukraine. And the chairman of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Mike Rogers (R., Mich.), told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Ukrainians “passionately believe” Russian President Vladimir Putin “will be on the move again in Ukraine, especially in the east.”
Ukrainian and U.S. intelligence officials “believe that Putin is not done in Ukraine,” Mr. Rogers said.
“It is very troubling,” he added. “He has put all the military units he would need to move into Ukraine on its eastern border and is doing exercises.”

BeanCounterGrad'03 · March 24, 2014

Alright, everyone shut up.

WITH AUTHORITY!!!

Cerebus · March 24, 2014

WITH AUTHORITY!!!

Cerebus · March 24, 2014

I also think this thread needs this gif, at this moment:

UNT90 · March 24, 2014

Bad News: They've option Corey Feldman to play UNT90.

.

I was thinking dead Patrick Swayze to re-create his awesome role in Red Dawn.

Just so appropriate.

Wolverines!!!

Edited March 24, 2014 by UNT90

Rudy · March 25, 2014

Alright, everyone shut up. I survived and I am going to start updating this thread, which I am now calling:

COLD WAR TWO: The Re-Mutually Assured Destructioning.

Good News: I've already sold the movie rights to CWT:T-RMAD!

Bad News: They've option Corey Feldman to play UNT90.

The part of Cerebus will be played by Guillermo Díaz.

And I will be played by Sean Astin? Or are going for Frankie Munoz?

And I was going to steer clear of any Red Dawn References, but I wonder if there are any high schools in Ukraine that have the Wolverines as a mascot?

Army of Dad · March 25, 2014

And I will be played by Sean Astin? Or are going for Frankie Munoz?

And I was going to steer clear of any Red Dawn References, but I wonder if there are any high schools in Ukraine that have the Wolverines as a mascot?

Sean Astin hands down.

How do you say 'wolverine' in Ukrainian?

Rudy · March 25, 2014

Wolverinski?

Cerebus · March 25, 2014

How do you say 'wolverine' in Ukrainian?

Pосомаха.

In Spanish its glotón, which is the same word for glutton.

Back to today's update in CWT:T-RMAD:

Ukraine Battles to Rebuild a Depleted Military

The country once boasted a proud and sizable military—more than 750,000 strong—not to mention the third largest strategic nuclear arsenal in the world.
But stripped by years of neglect, corruption and an apparently unclear nuclear disarmament agreement with the superpowers, Ukraine's military has shrunk to a shadow of its former self, both in numbers and in working tanks, aircraft and battleships.
According to Ukraine, the country today has about 140,000 military personnel. But only 6,000 of the country's 41,000 land troops were ready for combat
As part of its quick rebuilding campaign, the government is searching far and wide for help, including establishing a hotline for Ukrainians to call and automatically donate 5 hryvnia—about 50 cents.
According to a spokesman for the banking and oil products magnate, Mr. Kolomoisky spent "several million dollars" of his own money, but he stresses others are helping too. "There are lots of small businesses, farmers and local people who are pitching in to help the military bases," said the spokesman.

In other words, Ukraine would struggle to hold off an invasion of the Dallas Gun Club. Like I said before, never give up your ~~guns~~ nukes.

Ukraine sacks defence minister over Crimea

Ukraine's parliament sacked the crisis-hit country's besieged defence minister Tuesday after his forces began a humiliating withdrawal from Crimea without firing a shot against Russian forces who claimed the Black Sea peninsula.
Crimea's effective loss -- though recognised by no Western power -- has dealt a heavy psychological blow to many Ukrainians who have already spent the past years mired in corruption and economic malaise.
Tenyukh also admitted that 14,500 of Ukraine's 18,800 soldiers in Crimea had informed their superiors they would prefer to remain on the peninsula as part of the Russian military -- a massive majority that underscores the demoralised state of Kiev's force.
e Crimean crisis has sparked the most explosive East-West confrontation since the Cold War era and fanned fears in Kiev that Putin now intends to push his troops into the heavily Russified regions of southeast Ukraine.
Western leaders sought to ward off any such threat by forging a more forceful response in The Hague after two rounds of only targeted sanctions that hit only specific officials but left Russia's broader economy untouched.
A summit of the Group of Seven most industrialised countries agreed on Monday to deepen Moscow's isolation over the crisis and meet on their own -- without Russia -- in Brussels instead of gathering in Sochi in June.

Ukraine: the next possible flashpoints

After Russia's conquest of Crimea, Vladimir Putin's next target could be three regions in eastern Ukraine with large minority Russian-speaking populations, and the Russian-speaking region of Transdniester in Moldova.

Donetsk and Luhansk are next, imho.

Mean Green 93-98 · March 25, 2014

The whole "Russian-speaking" thing is a ruse. . . . Many Russian speakers identify culturally and politically as Ukrainians.

Cerebus · March 25, 2014

Why are Polish men in London getting military call-up papers?

Poland feels vulnerable to Putin’s aggression: and let’s not forget, we’d be bound to help - as we did in 1939

At least 7,000 reservists have been recalled to the colours for immediate exercises lasting between 10 and 30 days.

Three weeks ago, their Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, called a press conference to warn that “the world stands on the brink of conflict, the consequences of which are not foreseen… Not everyone in Europe is aware of this situation.”

And we should be worried, too. Poland is both a Nato and EU member. We are bound by solemn treaty to defend her in case of attack. Violation of Poland’s territorial integrity was after all why we went to war reluctantly in 1939.

We are as a country still in a position to help defend Poland, if necessary. The UK has tanks, armoured infantry and artillery based in Germany though they are due to be repatriated over the next few years. General Lord Dannatt has suggested today that not only should we keep our garrisons on the north German Plain for the foreseeable future, but we should reinforce them. I cannot think of a better way to warn off President Putin from any further adventurism.

UNT90 · March 25, 2014

Why are Polish men in London getting military call-up papers?

If Putin invaded Poland, would we lift a finger?

Seriously, would we?

I'm not so sure about the answer. If Putin isn't sure about the answer, it's a very bad thing for Poland.

H-towngreen · March 25, 2014

If Putin invaded Poland, would we lift a finger?
Seriously, would we?
I'm not so sure about the answer. If Putin isn't sure about the answer, it's a very bad thing for Poland.

Being that they are a member or the EU and Nato, yes. The world will let Putin take any country that isn't part of either body.

UNT90 · March 26, 2014

Being that they are a member or the EU and Nato, yes. The world will let Putin take any country that isn't part of either body.

What would we do if he invaded Poland? Sanctions? Would we go to war with Russia? Would we have the stomach for that?

mattmartin817 · March 26, 2014

What would we do if he invaded Poland? Sanctions? Would we go to war with Russia? Would we have the stomach for that?

Of course we would. #neverforget

index.72.jpg

Cerebus · March 26, 2014

Yes we would defend NATO member countries. I'll go into that later.

I just heard a draw dropping statement from Jimmy Carter.

He said bigger sanctions are needed, because the current ones are too weak. He also said a statement needs to be sent to Putin telling him that any further land acquisitions will be met with military means, and that ALL OPTIONS are on the table.

When the host asked if we should be supplying arms to the Ukraine AND to the Crimeans who do not want to be part of Russia, he said yes, and pointed to himself doing so in Afghanistan.

Today I Learned: UNT90 and Jimmy Carter are BFFs.

Army of Dad · March 26, 2014

Yes we would defend NATO member countries. I'll go into that later.

I just heard a draw dropping statement from Jimmy Carter.

He said bigger sanctions are needed, because the current ones are too weak. He also said a statement needs to be sent to Putin telling him that any further land acquisitions will be met with military means, and that ALL OPTIONS are on the table.

When the host asked if we should be supplying arms to the Ukraine AND to the Crimeans who do not want to be part of Russia, he said yes, and pointed to himself doing so in Afghanistan.

Today I Learned: UNT90 and Jimmy Carter are BFFs.

Strange bedfellows indeed.

TheTastyGreek · March 26, 2014

Today I Learned: UNT90 and Jimmy Carter are BFFs.

Wait... So, is UNT90 history's 2nd greatest monster?

CMJ · March 26, 2014

Yes we would defend NATO member countries. I'll go into that later.

I just heard a draw dropping statement from Jimmy Carter.

He said bigger sanctions are needed, because the current ones are too weak. He also said a statement needs to be sent to Putin telling him that any further land acquisitions will be met with military means, and that ALL OPTIONS are on the table.

When the host asked if we should be supplying arms to the Ukraine AND to the Crimeans who do not want to be part of Russia, he said yes, and pointed to himself doing so in Afghanistan.

Today I Learned: UNT90 and Jimmy Carter are BFFs.

This is only because it's too late to boycott the Paralympics.

Cerebus · March 26, 2014

This is only because it's too late to boycott the Paralympics.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

You are a terrible human being and you should feel terrible.

Cerebus · March 26, 2014

Today in CWT:TR-MAD is Putin actually about to go full retard?

The video supposedly shows the 4th guards tank division. Near the border of the Ukraine. I can't verify that, but I can tell you those sure look like the most recently upgraded T90s. A very capable tank:

Head to head vs the M1 it would get shredded in tank to tank combat. Used like tanks are used in Iraq/Afghanistan? Very capable. It's top configuration is completely designed to minimize American cluster bomb advantages. An A10 would poke holes in it like it was a soda can. But the Ukrainians don't have either of those platforms.

Seeing what (and how, look at this force distribution!) the Ukrainians have rolled out so far:

I don't think they could hold out for even a day against the Russians. If we don't actually out troops in Western Ukraine Putin can take it any time he thinks its worth the flak they will catch.

BTW if that is really the 4th Guards then that is bad news. They are HQed near Moscow, and are one of the elite constant ready divisions. They are over manned and over equipped so that they can maintain 80% man power and 100% equipment readiness at all times.

I hate to say this but we have to start moving forces into places like Latvia and Poland ASAP. The days of REFORGER are long gone and it will take almost all our air/sea lift to be able to get it done in any reasonable time frame. We can't really on the euros (I'll get into this on the why everyone has to defend NATO post) but Germany and France have about 700 main battle tanks combined. Russia has 15,000+

Cerebus · March 26, 2014

Wait, looking at that video again, the tanks don't seem to have the shorta system. They look like the newly updated T-72B3. There are only a few hundred of this design in service. ~~They have been given to the WEST and EAST Russian commands, but I can't find anything that names what divisions.~~

They went first to the "20th Armored Guards Brigade", which doesn't exist, so I can only assume the translator meant "20th Guards Army", which the 4th Guards Tank Division is in fact part of.

Also those Ukrainian vehicles are probably GMZ-3 mine layers.

Edited March 26, 2014 by Cerebus

UNT90 · March 26, 2014

Yes we would defend NATO member countries. I'll go into that later.

I just heard a draw dropping statement from Jimmy Carter.

He said bigger sanctions are needed, because the current ones are too weak. He also said a statement needs to be sent to Putin telling him that any further land acquisitions will be met with military means, and that ALL OPTIONS are on the table.

When the host asked if we should be supplying arms to the Ukraine AND to the Crimeans who do not want to be part of Russia, he said yes, and pointed to himself doing so in Afghanistan.

Today I Learned: UNT90 and Jimmy Carter are BFFs.

Ah, Jimmy Carter. Still trying to make himself relevant.

When the pacifist of all pacifist says our response is too weak, you know there is a problem.