Kiev Burning

[Rudy]

IF Ukrainian troops were to leave Crimea, with their equipment in tow, the only way to stop them and make them leave their weapons, would be by force. Using force on an opposing military would be an act of war. Well, another act of war that would be more obvious to the sheeple around the world.

[Army of Dad]

Sorry, I should have been more clear. Did NATO tell Ukraine no to joining (to include back channel answers to initial inquiries) before the current crisis?

Edited March 12, 2014 by Army of Dad

[Cerebus]

Sorry, I should have been more clear. Did NATO tell Ukraine no to joining (to include back channel answers to initial inquiries) before the current crisis?

Ukraine had an membership plan in the early 2000s but then said no. Support to join NATO among the public has been low, as many Ukrainians saw it as a provocation of the gigantic bear they live next to.

April 2, 2010: Ukrainians Likely Support Move Away From NATO

Ukrainians may support their new government's plans to prohibit the country from joining military alliances, which would effectively end its six-year pursuit of NATO membership. Residents in May 2009 were more than twice as likely to see NATO as a threat (40%) than as protection (17%). One in three said it was neither.

I bet the ethnic Ukrainians are rethinking now.

[Cerebus]

What will be telling is if they throw together an impromptu exercise with the Greeks in the next few weeks instead of carrying on with their preset destination.

Well, they haven't exactly left the area under full steam just yet.

USS George H.W. Bush stops in Turkey

the Bush crew plans to tour the city. It will include an evening banquet with Turkish musical instruments, a trip to the spring waters at Pamukkale, known for its therapeutic value, and a visit to a Turkish bath.

You know, my buddies in the Navy made it seem like it was all hard work. There sure seems to be a lot of gallivanting going on.

[Cerebus]

Woah.

General Dempsey: US ready for military response to Russia if Crimean conflict escalates

According to the Web site of the Atlantic Council, Dempsey said that "he's been talking to his military counterparts in Russia, but he's also sending a clear message to Ukraine and members of NATO that the U.S. military will respond militarily if necessary."

"If Russia is allowed to do this, which is to say move into a sovereign country under the guise of protecting ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it exposes Eastern Europe to some significant risk, because there are ethnic enclaves all over Eastern Europe and the Balkans," Dempsey said.

[Army of Dad]

Looks like we felt the need to step up rhetoric

[UNT90]

Can't imagine any scenario where Ukraine wouldn't want the Crimea back by any means. But with 6,000 combat ready troops, they can't do it themselves.

I am guessing NATO told them they aren't starting WWIII over 10,000 under developed square miles of land that until about two weeks ago was mainly know as Russian summer vacation destination.

The port is a good port, no doubt, and the oil/gas assets would be nice. But Ukraine has no naval needs that couldn't be met elsewhere, such as Odessa and they have plenty of O&G assets in the West of the country. This is mainly a loss of face issue for them.

However, I don't know what NATO's response would be if Russia rolled into the rest of the Ukraine. First, it would be a major escalation. The Crimea and South Ossetia excursions can at least be cloaked as actions designed to protect Russian speaking minority populations, and "helping" them prop up their own self rule. Taking over another country entirely would be different.

Second, I don't know if people realize how many full NATO members are in the immediate region. Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania are all on the Black Sea itself. If Russia was to take the Ukraine then a "New Russia" would share borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, all full NATO members.

Third, this move is just going to move more countries into NATO: NATO may accept Georgia as member if Russia annexes Crimea.

At that point, Russia is encircled by small states, that it considers to be "theirs" that are now in a defensive pact with NATO. Putin obviously is hell bent on a new CCCP, that's a dangerous situation.

I think you see Putin follow a familiar pattern. While you say "it's not worth WWIII" for NATO troops to go into Ukraine, it also sends the message to Putin that we will do nothing.

Putin will "negotiate" with NATO and agree not to invade the Ukraine in exchange for NATO agreeing never to put troops in the Ukraine. 6 months to a year will go by and suddenly Putin will claim "attacks" on the Ukrainian/Crimean border and will invade the Ukraine "for self protection."

If we do nothing, He will wait a short amount of time before setting his sights on Poland and Romania.

The threat of nuclear war is the only deterrent he will understand.

I don't know why this is so hard to understand.

[Cerebus]

The threat of nuclear war is the only deterrent he will understand.

I don't know why this is so hard to understand.

There are more steps, many more, to be used before you threaten to end human civilization. There is a reason the cold war was fought with proxies, a direct battle between ICBM* equipped nations could end up with some other mammal getting the chance to raise the next great earth civilization.

*India and Pakistan have on missle than has a range greater than 1000 KM between them.

[Cerebus]

What will be telling is if they throw together an impromptu exercise with the Greeks in the next few weeks instead of carrying on with their preset destination.

Responding to Ukraine: U.S. to keep carrier in Mediterranean to reassure NATO allies

The Pentagon plans to keep an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean longer than planned as a military presence to reassure NATO allies following Russia’s intervention in Crimea, CNN has learned.

Although the administration is focusing on diplomacy to resolve the Ukraine crisis, the military part of the equation was discussed in depth at a White House meeting on Tuesday, a military official said.

Several officials confirmed that there are intensive discussions across national security agencies about a variety of military options to increase the U.S. presence in the region.

[Cerebus]

Here are some of the economic levers that are/can be used against Russia.

Russian Stocks Drop With Bonds as Crimea Vote Shakes Sentiment

Russian stocks fell to the lowest level in almost four years and government bonds declined as tensions between Moscow and the West escalated before residents of Ukraine’s Crimea region vote in a separatist referendum.

Faced with the tension in Ukraine and as the Federal Reserve tapered monetary stimulus, the ruble has slumped 10 percent against the dollar this year, the worst-performer after Argentina’s peso among 24 emerging-market currencies monitored by Bloomberg.

Western banks closed credit lines to Russian business

(Translated from Russian) Former Minister of Finance of Russia, member of the Presidium of the Presidential Council of Economic Alexei Kudrin, Russia fears the consequences for the Russian economy from possible sanctions from the West, and notes that the restrictions in the banking sector has already begun.

He expects that this year's economic growth will be "not as planned in the summer of last year - 3.5%, and not even on the latest forecast (year-end) - 2.5%."

"Even now, many estimate that growth will be about 1.5%. I think that in view of these circumstances, here it is less than - 1% this year. Maybe even zero GDP growth this year," - said the ex-minister Finance Minister.

Deutsche Bank: Count Russia As A Frontier Market

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke Wednesday about the importance of supporting “overall macroeconomic steadiness” in the country.

Among its more eye-catching nuggets: investors should not treat Russia as an emerging market. It’s not that far along, they say. “There is a strong case for re-classifying Russia as a frontier market,” writes analyst John-Paul Smith, a veteran of all things Russian. Ouch.

“The variants of authoritarian democracy and state capitalism as practised in Russia, giving the state an almost unique degree of leverage over the private sector which is matched only by China within the EM benchmark. This fosters insecurity and short-term thinking in many important, mainly manufacturing, industries.”

U.S. surprises oil market with sale from strategic reserve

The United States will hold the first test sale of crude from its emergency oil stockpile since 1990, offering a modest 5 million barrels in what some observers saw as a subtle message to Russia from the Obama administration.

Strong agreement in call with German FM Steinmeier on need for firm EU response on Monday if Crimea referendum goes ahead #Ukraine

— William Hague (@WilliamJHague)

March 13, 2014

RT @lindseyhilsum Queue at ATM in #Simferopol - 'after referendum we don't know if we'll be able to get our money'. pic.twitter.com/B9gBVlJYcB

— greg white (@whitegl)

March 13, 2014

Just stopped at #Crimea Privat Bank branch, huge line to take out cash. But were withdrawing 1000, not 300. And said bc bank is closing.

— Alexander Marquardt (@MarquardtA)

March 13, 2014

[UNT90]

There are more steps, many more, to be used before you threaten to end human civilization. There is a reason the cold war was fought with proxies, a direct battle between ICBM* equipped nations could end up with some other mammal getting the chance to raise the next great earth civilization.

*India and Pakistan have on missle than has a range greater than 1000 KM between them.

You don't threaten anything. YOU make it clear that YOU will not be threatened.

Give in to Putin now, and he will only grab more later. You know this. Everything you have posted indicates so. Draw the line early or you may be too late to draw it at all. This is something Reagan inherently understood about dealing with Soviet types.

I fear Putin understands Pres. Obama far better than Pres. Obama understands Putin.

[Cerebus]

You don't threaten anything. YOU make it clear that YOU will not be threatened.

How do you do that? I'd like to see what you think accomplishes that without being a threat.

[Cerebus]

Russia Said to Ready for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case

Russian government officials and businessmen are bracing for sanctions resembling those applied to Iran after what they see as the inevitable annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region, according to four people with knowledge of the preparations.

“If Russia begins to answer sanctions with sanctions, it will be a pure loss for the country,” Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank in Moscow, said by phone. “More than 40 percent of consumption is imported goods.”

Some Russian political leaders are hoping that President Vladimir Putin will moderate his response to the crisis, the people said. Putin is consulting with the security forces and military about Ukraine, and some officials are afraid to voice opposition to what they see as a course he’s already chosen, two of the people said.

[Cerebus]

Meanwhile things are sliding from Pretty Boned to FULL ON BONED in a rapid manner.

Both of these are not in English originally:

In Donetsk, Ukraine rally for single turned into a bloody massacre (PHOTOS + VIDEO)

Rosiyane reported the arrival of the vehicle at the border with the Kharkiv region

Residents of the Belgorod region account and publish photos VKontakte arrival of trains with armored vehicles in the village Merry Lopan about 30 km from the border of Ukraine.

[Cerebus]

Top-influential Ukraine's newspaper Kommersant-Ukraine is closed by its Russian investors

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

March 13, 2014

[Cerebus]

Survey shows 58% of Russians would approve of sending Russian troops into Crimea.

Fair warning, all originally in Russian, possible translation errors:

Crimea and the eastern regions of Ukraine - it is essentially the Russian territory, and Russia has the right to use military force to protect their populations 65%

Branch Crimea and eastern regions and possibly the formation of independent states (possibly - their attachment to Russia) 43%

[Cerebus]

More on the Donetsk violence:

Insane pics from Donetsk today, where 1 man killed in clashes between pro-Ukraine & pro-Russia ppl via @novostidnua pic.twitter.com/wEod5Ap8pA

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

March 13, 2014

"We have no police. We have fought alone." Pro-Ukraine activist, hurt tonight in Donetsk, describes attack by pro-Russia side w batons, bats

— Mike Giglio (@mike_giglio)

March 13, 2014

Watch explosions, gun shots & chaos in Donetsk as violence erupts b/w separatists & pro-Ukraine protesters. 1 killed. http://t.co/zWCL129Csg

— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi)

March 13, 2014

[Cerebus]

Gasoline fumes, meet match:

Ukrainian colonel threatens to fire on Russian forces in Crimea

A Ukrainian army colonel whose troops have been challenged by Russian marines for control of a Crimean air base threatened Thursday to open fire unless given new and formal instructions to hold off by his nation’s defense ministry, the UNIAN news agency reported.

“Being under constant pressure from Russian Federation army servicemen and local militia … we are acting on oral orders to hold on, not to give in to provocations and not to open fire,” Col. Yuly Mamchur said in a statement quoted by UNIAN news agency. “In case you don't provide corresponding decisions, we will be forced to act in accordance with Ukraine army statute, including opening fire.

“We have a clear understanding that we won't be able to resist the Russian troops prevailing in arms and preparedness,” he added, “but we are ready to fulfill our duty to the end.”

“I don't see any other reason for this outright military sabotage action but part of their plan to invade [the] mainland part of eastern and southeastern Ukraine,” Mazepa said. “They need to be sure our army and navy units stationed in Crimea will not be able to hit them in the back in case of an all-out military invasion.”

I could see this resolving into a long battle, where the West and Russia trade sanctions until someone (Russia most likely) has to give in because of the economic damage. UNLESS:

1) Russia invades the rest of Ukraine.

2) Less likely to spark an all out military response than the above, but still troubling: Russians kill large numbers of the Ukrainians in the Crimea.

[Army of Dad]

So we have an incident that could be used by Russia to justify a military incursion into Ukraine as a whole. This happened while additional armored vehicles were already enroute.

The incident Donetsk sounds a bit suspicious...

[Cerebus]

So we have an incident that could be used by Russia to justify a military incursion into Ukraine as a whole. This happened while additional armored vehicles were already enroute.

The Pro Unity members where the ones hurt by the Pro Russia crowd. However, and I haven't posted this because I haven't found a western source that confirms it, a few days ago a guy was supposedly caught with pipe bomb materials and supposedly confused to being a Russian secret agent. He was to set off bombs at Pro Russia rallies.

Like I said, that is highly inflammatory, and I hadn't posted it because I had no western sources. But it is out of the Putin Playbook.

[UNT90]

How do you do that? I'd like to see what you think accomplishes that without being a threat.

What I mean by "the threat of Nuclear war" is forcing Putin to make a decision on whether HE wants to engage NATO troops and whether HE wants to run the risk of HIS actions escalating into nuclear war.

NATO troops should be inside the Ukraine conducting joint exercises 10 miles from the Crimean "border".

We can do it now when Putin still hasn't seized Ukraine and still may have a scentilla of respect for us, or we can attempt to stop him in Romanoa or Poland.

But at some point, we are going to have to step up.

[Cerebus]

What I mean by "the threat of Nuclear war" is forcing Putin to make a decision on whether HE wants to engage NATO troops and whether HE wants to run the risk of HIS actions escalating into nuclear war.

So putting US troops 10 minutes from the Crimean boarder isn't a threat? Interesting view.

We win this situation like we won the Cold War. Economically. We spent the USSR into oblivion. We don't have to out spend them this time, they have opened up their economy and integrated with the world just enough so that they are completely reliant on it. It's just that Putin doesn't understand the new economic reality. Well if he is dumb enough to walk into this economic bear trap well then by all means lets spring it on him.

The Russians don't make shit. And what they do make is shit. The are really reliant on petrol dollars, and then they have to use that money to import consumer goods and pay off cronies. They don't reinvest any of it into petrol infrastructure, and are reliant on partnerships with western companies to develop and upkeep it.

It would be a hard year or two (ex: Germany is very reliant on Russian gas, 30% of their usage) but the US could build gas export facilities on the east coast and make up the demand. If they have the guts to do so, and give Merkel credit she is tough and understand geopolitical implications, then you can destabilize Putin's regime.

Like I said the Russians support Putin because they have culturally always respected a strong man. Strong sanctions on Russia would force Putin to either back down or respond with his own, probably natural gas. Let him. After a year or two, EU will have the gas they need anyway, they can also develop shale fields all over east that Russian has pressured people into not developing. At that point Putin won't have leverage, will not have the money to pay off the people he needs, and the sanctions will make such cash flow problems for the Ruble that they won't be able to have many consumer goods in the stores, and those there will be very expensive to someone paid in Russian currency.

And then guess what? Putin isn't a strong man anymore. All it takes is the west to stick together. The US will probably need to offer all sorts of economic aid, possibly open up the SOR, the EU will have to suck up production hits that will stop their growth for a few years.

[Cerebus]

But at some point, we are going to have to step up.

We moved more F16s into the Baltics. There is a guided missile cruiser in the Black Sea, it happens to be attached to a carrier strike group that is now just loitering in the area. And, the worst kept secret in the world is that the carrier strike group has two Los Angeles class nuclear powered/armed attack submarines. All the local area ass kicking we need is there already.

[Cerebus]

You know what this cluster needs? JIHADIS!

The Crimean crisis is bound to shake up the Middle East

Turkey is watching the situation closely – though prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has other problems on his mind. For Moscow, the worst nightmare would be for Crimea to be declared a jihadist front. So far, this is a distant scenario, but it has been raised by Mustafa Dzhemilev, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and former Soviet dissident, who claims that militant Tatars have come to him to offer to fight the Russians. Some Tatar volunteers are fighting in Syria, and may relish the chance to attack the source of the Syrian regime’s power.

[Cerebus]

Mindful of Past, Many Tatars Fear a Russian Future

“If we speak honestly, we’re all afraid,” said Ruslan Mustafaev, who stood guard with six other men at a neighborhood watch post this week. “If they want to, they will come for us.”

“The entire Soviet system demeaned us over the course of many years,” said Aider Abdullayev, a City Council deputy and part-time neighborhood watchman. “Therefore, our people perfectly see and perfectly understand what is happening now.”

“Crimean Tatars have one homeland,” said Mr. Abdullayev, the city councilman who also does sentry duty. “Other nationalities who live in Crimea also have their own homelands: The Ukrainian has Ukraine, the Greek has Greece, the Russian has Russia. Our people don’t have a different home. We aren’t leaving here. We’re ready to die here on our homeland.”

Tatar militants have fought alongside the opposition in Syria, and Hizb ut-Tahrir, an Islamic group banned in several countries including Russia, has 1,000 members in Crimea, according to Fazil Amzayev, a spokesman for the group’s local chapter.