Kiev Burning

[Cerebus]

Ukraine parliament delivers ultimatum to Crimea over referendum

Ukraine's parliament has warned the regional assembly in Crimea that it faces dissolution unless it cancels a referendum it has called to join the region to Russia.

Turchinov said mismanagement of the armed forces under the former president, Viktor Yanukovych, meant the Ukrainian military had to be rebuilt "effectively from scratch". The acting defence minister said the country had only 6,000 combat-ready infantry compared with more than 200,000 Russian troops on its eastern borders.

[Army of Dad]

Totes. Putin called up the west and told them "I was so joking, man, you should have seen your faces" and then he did his best Nature Boy Ric Flair impression for everyone. The media loved it!

I was on spring break, I guess I need to do some posting... SINCE NO ONE ELSE DID... no... it's FINE... *rolls eyes*

There is too much, let me sum up.

The Russians are still in Crimea, the west is found a lot of talking, their have been some minor military movements from us, Ukraine still wants Crimea back, Russian vote counters are trying to show separatism consensus, Humperdinck marries the princess in little less a half hour.

/Inigo Montoya

[Cerebus]

Ukraine forms new defense force, seeks Western help

Blaming their ousted predecessors for the weakness of their own armed forces, acting ministers told parliament Ukraine had as few as 6,000 combat-ready infantry and that the air force was outnumbered nearly 100 to 1 by Moscow's superpower forces.

Parliament passed a resolution calling on the United States and Britain, co-signatories with Russia of that treaty to "fulfill their obligations ... and take all possible diplomatic, political, economic and military measures urgently to end the aggression and preserve the independence, sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine".

NATO AWACs surveillance planes were beginning flights over Poland and Romania to monitor events in Ukraine and the U.S. navy was preparing for exercises in the Black Sea with NATO allies Bulgaria and Romania over the next few days.

"I say this to our Western partners: if you do not provide guarantees, which were signed in the Budapest Memorandum, then explain how you will persuade Iran or North Korea to give up their status as nuclear states."

[Cerebus]

There is too much, let me sum up.

The Russians are still in Crimea, the west is found a lot of talking, their have been some minor military movements from us, Ukraine still wants Crimea back, Russian vote counters are trying to show separatism consensus, Humperdinck marries the princess in little less a half hour.

/Inigo Montoya

Oh, what I wouldn't give for a holocaust cloak.

[Cerebus]

Looks like Good Old Yanuk is still alive, though probably a lot of truth to the health problem rumors:

It goes w/o saying #Yanukovych's seen better days. Presser seemed to be nothing more than proof he is still around. pic.twitter.com/wAclmQlvsU

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM)

March 11, 2014

[Cerebus]

Russia’s Grip Tightens With Shows of Force at Ukrainian Bases

Russian forces raided a Ukrainian naval missile base here in the darkness of early Monday, scaling its outer walls and outmatching the surprised sailors inside without firing a shot, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and people familiar with the raid.

Russian forces also infiltrated an air base at Novofedorivka and took up position along a runway; took over a military hospital in the regional capital, Simferopol; and moved onto a Ukrainian base used by a motorized battalion in Bakhchysaray.

The military advances suggested how little influence the Western stance has had on the ground, and on the speed and tactical confidence with which Russia is consolidating its military position.

War were declared.

[Cerebus]

From Same Article:

The Ukrainian naval contingent, perhaps 40 or 50 sailors and officers, belonged to a technical service that manages naval missiles and had only light weapons — mostly pistols and automatic rifles.

Outgunned and surprised, they did not resist, people familiar with the raid said. The Russian commander, described as a colonel, announced that “we are soldiers from the Russian Federation” who had come to protect the base and its equipment.

I don't even mind the threat of nuclear winter, but could we at least put it off until George R.R. Martin can finish the Game of Thrones books?

[Army of Dad]

Russias Grip Tightens With Shows of Force at Ukrainian Bases

War were declared.

One of these raids is going to end in some serious bloodshed...

[Cerebus]

DOD: U.S. Will Beef Up Air Operations in Poland

More U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcons will deploy to Poland in the coming days and weeks, a Pentagon official said here today.

“What we are doing is reassuring our allies that we are there for them,” Warren said. “This is an important time for us to make it crystal clear to all our allies and partners in the region that the United States of America stands by them.”

This is just one of the visible actions the United States has taken since the Russian incursion into Ukraine. The United States sent six more F-15C Eagle aircraft to beef up the air policing mission in the Baltics. In addition, the USS Truxton has been deployed to the Black Sea.

[Cerebus]

Titans in Russia Fear New Front in Ukraine Crisis

When Vladimir V. Putin returned to the Russian presidency in 2012, one of the first messages he sent to his political elite, many of them heads of banks and large corporations, was that the times had changed: Owning assets outside Russia makes you too vulnerable to moves by foreign governments, he told them. It is time to bring your wealth home.

Nearly two years later, those words seem almost prophetic. After a week of escalating tensions between Russia and the United States, it has become clear that the conflict over Ukraine will move to the battlefield of finance. Those same business titans are now contemplating the damage that the crisis could inflict on Russia’s economy.

Mr. Putin demands complete loyalty from those who are allowed to lead Russia’s business empires, and he has made it clear that he will punish those who undermine him.

Anxiety over possible economic fallout has begun to radiate from business circles, and some wondered whether Mr. Putin had been warned clearly about the magnitude of the possible damage to the economy. One analyst described their mind-set as one of “cognitive dissonance.”

“I’ve seen 10 people from the Forbes list in the recent few days. They’re pale; they don’t understand,” said Aleksandr Y. Lebedev, a prominent banker who sold most of his Russian assets after public disputes with Mr. Putin.

Officials have suggested that a range of measures is being considered, leaving open, by implication, the most extreme one: barring Russian companies and banks from access to the Western financial system, similar to sanctions adopted against Iran.

But Mr. Putin, whose return to the presidency was opposed by many urban liberals, now makes his most important decisions in an inner circle of men who emerged from Soviet security services. Among the first new projects in his new presidency was a push to “nationalize the elite,” requiring officials to sell off investments and properties outside Russia that could, in his view, undermine their loyalty in the event of a confrontation with the West.

Iran sanctions = go time

Edited March 11, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

At least 5 activists & journalists have disappeared in #Crimea in past days; reporters have had notebooks confiscated, told to leave cities

— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24)

March 11, 2014

OSCE media freedom representative calls for immediate release of kidnapped journalists in Crimea, Ukraine

“I am extremely worried about the escalation of attacks against journalists in Crimea,” Mijatovic said. “The responsibility for ensuring journalists’ safety lies with those responsible for law and order in Crimea, and they must immediately release these journalists.”

[Cerebus]

Putin Adviser Publishes Plan for Domination of Europe

The plan, which Dugin calls “the Russian Spring,” is presented as one of three scenarios for resolution of the current Ukrainian crisis. The other two, in which the Kremlin blinks in the face of Western pressure, result in thermonuclear war or complete global chaos.

1. Kiev takes a waiting position, concentrates its troops on the border with the Crimea, and threatens, but takes no direct action. The U.S. strongly pressures Russia, freezing accounts, and actively wages information war, but they and NATO avoid direct clashes. Kiev receives substantial support from the West, but focuses on domestic issues. The border with Russia is closed.

...

10. A new great Continental Association is formed, as a confederation of Europe and Eurasia, the European Union and the Eurasian Union. Russian, Ukrainians and Europeans are on one side of the barricades, the Americans on the other. American hegemony and dominance of the dollar as well as domination of Atlanticism, liberalism and the financial oligarchy is ended. A new page in world history begins. The Slavs are reunited not against Europe, but with Europe in the framework of a multipolar polycentric world. From Lisbon to Vladivostok.

If you are wondering what fucking fantasy land Putin is living in, this is it, from a very close adviser to him. The heart of it is if Putin doesn't back down, in in the face of a nuclear threat, the Russians win the Cold War.

I highly recommend everyone in this thread read it.

[Cerebus]

I also just wanted to post this before going to lunch:

[Cerebus]

Crimean Tatars face tough choice: dig in, or flee

After an evening prayer in the town of Bakhchisaray in southern Crimea, a handful of Crimean Tatars stand guard near the mosque where they pray to protect it and their people

In recent days, unknown persons have been going around Crimean Tatar villages and marking their homes with white crosses, sowing panic among many women and outraging the men.

“Every evening men gather and patrol the streets to prevent provocations,” said Seitumer Seitumirov, 28, an economist by education.

There are several packages of food stacked nearby, prepared by Crimean Tatar women to be taken to the Ukrainian soldiers at Perevalnoye military base, which has been blocked by Russian troops.

Asana Ablayev, a 78-year-old Crimean Tatar man, says he has no trust in this offer because he remembers too well when, almost 70 years ago, men in military uniforms came into his family's home and gave them 15 minutes to pack for resettlement to Central Asia or Siberia.

He says although Crimean Tatar self-defense units have no weapons other than pitchforks, this can easily change.“We will of course find guns if we really need them,” Suleimanov said.

[Cerebus]

Ousted Ukrainian leader warns of civil war; Russia adds to forces

On Tuesday, Russia launched a four-day military exercise of its elite airborne troops.

Russia has deployed a force of 220,000 troops, 1,800 tanks and over 400 helicopters close to Ukraine's border. Its neighbor has about 41,000 troops, of which only 6,000 were “really combat ready,” Ukraine's acting Defense Minister Igor Tenyukh told the national parliament Tuesday, UNIAN news agency reported.

To put that 220,000 number in perspective, at the height of the 2007 surge, the US had about 162,000 troops in Iraq.

[Cerebus]

So this thread is getting pretty one sided. Anyone have any questions, comments, or recipes to share?

[H-towngreen]

How do you see this going? Russian pullback? Crimea breaking off?

[Cerebus]

How do you see this going? Russian pullback? Crimea breaking off?

Good question. As far as I can tell this has already escalated past everyone's expectations, and is going to keep going.

Everything below is IMHO:

I believed Putin saw the possible change of govt as a threat, but had his hands tied by the Olympics spotlight. Things moved faster than he expected and his man was chased off the scene. I think Putin was expecting to be able to rush him back into power, with minimal protest from the West.

However, it seems his man had a heart attack, making him having to go slower than he wanted. This allowed the west to build some consensus, namely that Russia had to withdrawal. I thought at that point Putin would play to his strength, being a realist and able to read situations, and settle for something that he could sell as a win back home.

What would that be? Something along the lines of scuttling the western Ukraine gas exploration deal (done), and allowing some Russian "observers" to stay in Crimea to "safeguard ethnic Russian rights." Along with a background deal with the Ukrainians to NOT seek NATO membership.

However, the west had done a good job of not directly humiliating the Russian people, but at the same time leading the Ukrainian govt to believe that they have their backs. Ukraine may be over reading the commitment to the Baltic States and Poland as commitment to them, but they aren't willing to give in.

Putin can now either back down, unlikely, or continue to escalate. I think he misread the resolve of the western leaders, and continues to do so. Obama understands this is the big test of his foreign policy, I think he also understands that a resurgent CCCP would leave a mark on him that wouldn't wash off. Merkel and the rest of the Germans are pretty much calling the shots in the EU financially, and do not want to give that up to the Russians. The Nordic countries have invested heavily in Ukraine, and do not want to lose that investment.

Add to this that the Crimea by itself is really pointless. Yes, the Black Sea Fleet is there, but if Russia ever wanted to use it, they would have to sail it past NATO member Turkey through the Bosphorus. Which happens to have a heavy stock of US supplied anti-ship missiles. True the Crimea does sit right beside some unproven oil fields on the sea floor, but production stock is not Russia's problem. Distribution is. The distribution lines to the west run through Western Ukraine, not the the Crimea.

The wheat production is in the west, the fresh water is in the central/west, the gas fields that Russia DOES NOT WANT Ukraine to develop are in the west. Long story short, Putin needs to control the rest of the Ukraine to get what he wants. If he painted himself into some corner where the Ethnic Ukrainians are going to be very anti Russian and can't wait to join NATO, he has truly boned himself.

So how badly does he want the west? Enough to roll troops out of Crimea? It's 500 miles to the Dnieper, and what he really wants is way past Kiev anyway.

How badly does Ukraine want to remain free? Will they roll out some material from their reactors and make some nuclear weapons? They still have both the feed stock and the high precision engineering machinery.

It's a big, dangerous situation that everyone misread, and I don't see any easy outs for people to stand down.

Edited March 11, 2014 by Cerebus

[Cerebus]

Russian troops blockade #Ukraine army base in #Crimea It looks less like a build up to referendum & more annexation pic.twitter.com/ATbXsjnGLn

— Stuart Webb (@Worldwidewebb1)

March 11, 2014

[H-towngreen]

Thanks Cerebus!

It seems to me it basically comes down to how Putin wants to handle this. Is he ballsy/dumb enough to try to push for more. If he does try to push for more or once that first shot is fired I can't see it ending up as anything but bad for Putin.

[Cerebus]

Increasingly difficult to film in #Simferopol. Pro-Russian activists are now demanding government documents that don't seem to exist.

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin)

March 12, 2014

Crimean deputy PM: Ukrainian forces will be given safe passage to leave Crimea if they leave their guns behind

— Simon Ostrovsky (@SimonOstrovsky)

March 12, 2014

[Cerebus]

Ukraine won't intervene in Crimea: president

Ukraine will not attempt a military move to prevent the southern Crimean peninsula's breakaway in order not to expose its eastern border, Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov told AFP Tuesday in an exclusive interview.

"We cannot launch a military operation in Crimea, as we would expose the eastern border and Ukraine would not be protected," Turchynov said, as Crimea prepares to vote in a referendum Sunday on becoming part of Russia.

[Cerebus]

While the above news, that Ukraine won't/can't try and retake the Crimea militarily is reassuring (from a global thermonuclear war perspective) the following new is really troubling:

Analysis - From loyal aides and 'inner voice', Putin hears no Crimea dissent

Surrounded by faithful aides, President Vladimir Putin hears no opposition to his plans in Crimea, allowing him to drive Russia's bid to reclaim Ukraine's southern region guided by little more than his "inner voice".

"His closest adviser is his inner voice," said a source who is close to the Kremlin. "He had to act. He had no choice."

The tough response showed a type of behaviour that has marked Putin's long rule but has been seen more often in recent years as the more liberal thinkers who once influenced him have been pushed out of his closest circle.

By excluding the finance and economy ministries, he deliberately shut out advisers who might have urged caution.

EDIT: Inner Voice? I am sure some thorazine would clear that up.

Edited March 12, 2014 by Cerebus

[Army of Dad]

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/443703735009951744

Which they really can't do as that would only show them to be Putin's prison bitch. They have to find some way of getting themselves out and maintain at least some dignity.

Did NATO tell Ukraine no, or did Ukraine tell NATO no?

[Cerebus]

Did NATO tell Ukraine no, or did Ukraine tell NATO no?

Can't imagine any scenario where Ukraine wouldn't want the Crimea back by any means. But with 6,000 combat ready troops, they can't do it themselves.

I am guessing NATO told them they aren't starting WWIII over 10,000 under developed square miles of land that until about two weeks ago was mainly know as Russian summer vacation destination.

The port is a good port, no doubt, and the oil/gas assets would be nice. But Ukraine has no naval needs that couldn't be met elsewhere, such as Odessa and they have plenty of O&G assets in the West of the country. This is mainly a loss of face issue for them.

However, I don't know what NATO's response would be if Russia rolled into the rest of the Ukraine. First, it would be a major escalation. The Crimea and South Ossetia excursions can at least be cloaked as actions designed to protect Russian speaking minority populations, and "helping" them prop up their own self rule. Taking over another country entirely would be different.

Second, I don't know if people realize how many full NATO members are in the immediate region. Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania are all on the Black Sea itself. If Russia was to take the Ukraine then a "New Russia" would share borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, all full NATO members.

Third, this move is just going to move more countries into NATO: NATO may accept Georgia as member if Russia annexes Crimea.

At that point, Russia is encircled by small states, that it considers to be "theirs" that are now in a defensive pact with NATO. Putin obviously is hell bent on a new CCCP, that's a dangerous situation.