The Curious Case of Connor Means: Why UNT offered

[MeanGreenZen]

When North Texas hired Mike Canales to be its offensive coordinator, Canales stated his desire to find a quarterback who could be a threat both running and passing. Four years into Canales tenure, UNT has had better luck finding Nathan Tunes dog than finding a dual threat quarterback.

The Derek Thompson era (otherwise known as the Stone-foot Age) will end at UNT after this season. Can Deer Parks Connor Means develop into the type of offensive threat Canales wants in a quarterback?

If I had a stock broker, I imagine he would tell me that past performance does not guarantee future results. I may not have an eTrade account, but I do have a Rivals account. And after a disappointing senior season of high school, North Texas is hoping past performance does not indicate how Means college career will play out.

Without being able to account for variables such as the quality of opponents/teammates/coaching, lets look at how Means, our only QB commitment, compared as a high school senior with the high school senior stats of his future teammates and the starting QBs of each of UNTs opponents.

College Player Comp Passing YDS Pass TD INT

UNT Connor Means 49% 1,323 yds 10 TD 9 INT

UNT Dajon Williams 58% 1,618 yds 15 TD 3 INT

UNT Andrew McNulty 55% 1,438 yds 12 TD 5 INT

UNT Brock Berglund 61% 2,150 yds 23 TD 5 INT

Idaho Chad Chalich 73% 3,641 yds 42 TD 2 INT

Ohio Tyler Tettleton 57% 1,947 yds 21 TD 11 INT

Ball State Keith Wenning, 69% 3,629 yds 40 TD 12 INT

Georgia Aaron Murray 61% 2,285 yds 33 TD 5 INT

Tulane Nick Montana 58% 2,636 yds 34 TD 10 INT

MTSU Austin Grammer 74% 3,007 yds 30 TD 4 INT

La Tech Ryan Higgins 60% 1,804 yds 11 TD 4 INT

S Miss Nick Mullens 64% 3,649 yds 40 TD 7 INT

Rice Taylor McHargue 47% 1,309 yds 13 TD 11 INT

UTEP Mack Leftwich 66% 3,331 yds 45 TD 4 INT

UTSA Eric Soza 55% 1,523 yds 15 TD 6 INT

Tulsa Dane Evans 64% 3,265 yds 36 TD 13 INT

Now before we go jumping headfirst off the top of the Apogee tail because Means ranks near the bottom in completion percentage and passing yards with the worst touchdown to interception ratio, lets consider that Means stats are not HORRIBLE. In fact, they are average.

Means was an average high school quarterback. Hey, as a 2013 North Texas football fan, I am an expert at watching average quarterback play.

Of the guys above, Means stats most closely resemble Rices Taylor McHargue and UTSAs Eric Soza. If Means could go on to have a college career like those two, I would be happier than Darrell Dickey at 3 a.m. on Bourbon Street.

But McHargue and Soza derive most of their value from their legs (Curse your legs, Soza! Your beautiful, pocket-escaping, playmaking legs. Oh how we long for a UNT quarterback with legs. Not Joe Namath wearing pantyhose legs. But its 3^rd and 7 and all the receivers are covered and you can scramble for a first down legs.)

What kind of legs does Means have? His 40 time is listed on recruiting sites as 4.65. But high school 40 times are less reliable than a Ron Mendoza defensive game plan. As a runner, Means averaged six yards a carry and scored 10 touchdowns. That seemed kinda impressive until I noticed that Derek Thompson ran for 6.5 yards a carry and scored 13 rushing touchdowns in his final year of high school.

I also heard that Means runs the 300 hurdles in track. (Hey, so did RG3!) But cant find any results that indicate how good he is at it. It has also been reported that Means is a basketball player (his dad is the varsity basketball coach). But as far as I can tell, Means averaged 2.7 points a game before permanently disappearing from the Deer Park basketball box scores halfway through his junior season.

Means football highlight film shows a long run where he weaves his way through a defense to score a touchdown and has other runs where he demonstrates decent straight line speed. Means played Class 5A Texas football in a good district. Its not like the guys hes playing are a bunch of suburban Colorado hippies wearing hemp shoulder pads.

But Means elusiveness will not remind anyone of Riley Dodge. He is not a future 1,000 yard rusher.

So why would North Texas give a scholarship to a high school quarterback with average passing stats, a sub .500 record as a varsity starter (he did lead his JV team to a 10-0 record as a sophomore!) who does not possess elite running ability?

Well, UNT wasnt the only school to offer Means a scholarship. Recruiting sites list other offers from Boise State, Texas State, La-Lafayette and La-Monroe. Going back to the mid-90s, I cant think of an incoming UNT freshman, who was recruited as a quarterback, with that many FBS offers. If Means cant play quarterback at the next level, UNT isnt the only program he fooled.

While Means has yet to prove he is a college quarterback, his picture could certainly be used to catfish an unsuspecting Internet user to believe he was one. Means is a full 6-3 and 205 with the frame to get heavier. He looks comfortable in the pocket and can take a hit. While his arm is not anything to tweet about, it looks like he can make all the throws necessary to spread the field and keep a defense honest.

So why wasnt he a better high school player? The scouting reports mention a small mechanical flaw in his delivery (his elbow is too low when he throws) which impacts his accuracy (thus the low completion percentage and high interceptions).

This will be the key to Means success in Denton. Means attended the UNT satellite camp and has thrown in front of Canales and Dan McCarney a couple of times. They must think they can fix him!

UNT is hoping that Means can be the new car you buy on deep discount because the dealer left it outside during a bad hail storm. Just give it a new paint job and a little body work and your friends will never know!

The truth is, if Means already had a perfect delivery and impressive stats, hed probably be heading to the Big 12. For a FBS QB, Means moves well, possesses ideal size and has acceptable arm strength. Those are assets you cant coach.

It is smart football to include a quarterback in every recruiting class and this is the time in the life cycle of the UNT football program to invest in one with raw upside. If Andrew McNulty, Brock Berglund and Dajon Williams are who we hope they are, then Means doesnt have to be anything more than a 4^th string QB for at least two years. That gives Canales time in the laboratory to work through his flaws and improve his accuracy. If Canales can do that, Means past performance will have no bearing on his future results.

[Harry]

Wow outstanding post. You make great points, the only thing I can say in response is this kid's junior film JUMPED out at me and evidently everyone else. We don't know the factors that played into his senior season. Did he lose all of his best offensive linemen or receivers? The bottom line is that this kid has VERY good speed and size. Here's his video for whoever may have missed it. Some guys have average or below average seasons... it happens. Doesn't take away their size, speed and potential to contribute at the D-I level.

[NorthTexan95]

Great info! Appreciate all the work. Our coaches must see a diamond in the rough.

I have to say I'm really looking forward to this spring's QB battle between Williams, Berglund, and McNulty. Williams may have the inside shot based on comments from August but I wouldn't be surprised if any of these three started our home opener next year.

Edit: One more things ... I love the "stone-footed age" comment.

Edited November 27, 2013 by NorthTexan95

[NorthTexan95]

Watching the highlight tape Harry posted above, I see what you mean about his elbow being too low when throwing. It kinda looks like he's shot putting the ball, especially on deep throws. Kinda reminds me of Philip Rivers back in college.

[tmjerm]

Great work

[Cerebus]

I would be happier than Darrell Dickey at 3 a.m. on Bourbon Street.

I hope everyone doesn't get caught up in your analysis work and miss this great line.

Bravo.

[Censored by Laurie]

I hope everyone doesn't get caught up in your analysis work and miss this great line.

Bravo.

I wonder if he meant 3am after the Cincinnati game or 3am before the Memphis game...

[MeanGreenMarine]

At least he doesn't throw off of his back foot every play like someone that we have...

[FirefightnRick]

Wait, we're gonna backhandedly criticize Thompson's mobility as the stone-footed era then compare everyoe else's high school passing stats?

Rick

Edited November 27, 2013 by FirefightnRick

[BillySee58]

I agree and have for a while, following his high school season.

We offered him because he has the size and had a decent junior year as a first-year varsity starter. The thinking was that he'd take a big step in his second season as a starter, but he regressed statistically.

We won't need him to start any time soon with Dajon most likely getting the redshirt. Means could potentially move to tight end or back up Dajon for four years and compete for the starting qb spot as a redshirt senior.

[MeanGreenTexan]

I agree and have for a while, following his high school season.

We offered him because he has the size and had a decent junior year as a first-year varsity starter. The thinking was that he'd take a big step in his second season as a starter, but he regressed statistically.

We won't need him to start any time soon with Dajon most likely getting the redshirt. Means could potentially move to tight end or back up Dajon for four years and compete for the starting qb spot as a redshirt senior.

You mean as a redshirt junior after DW is taken in the 2017 draft?

[BillySee58]

You mean as a redshirt junior after DW is taken in the 2017 draft?

Throwing to Kidsy, Goree, Fonzale, Rutherford, and Jalen Adams. Calling pass plays would be a good idea

[H-towngreen]

We're going to have some great young receivers here next season.

[PlummMeanGreen]

Cedrick Hardman would have been considered average by some when he was at his Texas HS and listed as 5' 10" 185 pounds.

While at North Texas Cedrick Hardman grew to 6'5" 240, became an All Conference player, an NFL #1 draft choice and then

an All Pro for several seasons. Not sure why he is still not in the NFL Hall of Fame since he hold the SF 49'ers

record of most sacks (whether that stat was official back in that day or not; fact remains that Cedrick still has the most sacks for that NFL team).

I'm glad we have Connor as an early commit and I don't know the purpose of these kind of threads when these kids and their parents are reading them quite frankly but that...........IMHO, of course.

Edited November 27, 2013 by PlummMeanGreen

[MeanGreenTexan]

...

I'm glad we have Connor as an early commit and I don't know the purpose of these kind of threads when these kids and their parents are reading them quite frankly but that...........IMHO, of course.

I bet no one is more intimate with the drop-off in production than Connor himself. If he reads this, I'm sure he isn't shocked.

Good thing for him is, he has a scholarship to UNT in his pocket, and will be facing some tough competition for QB reps. If he comes in and works hard, he'll get looks.

[ntmeangreen11]

I believe someone posted that he will be enrolling early. So Mac & co. will get an extensive look at all 4 quarterbacks this spring.

[Rudy]

Even if his stats aren;t stellar, As long as he has the mental toughness to always work his ass off and improve, I'm good with him. I call this the Quinn effect. I don't think I've EVER seen someone strive so much to make themselves better regardless what they do as Johnny Quinn.

[BillySee58]

I bet no one is more intimate with the drop-off in production than Connor himself. If he reads this, I'm sure he isn't shocked.

Good thing for him is, he has a scholarship to UNT in his pocket, and will be facing some tough competition for QB reps. If he comes in and works hard, he'll get looks.

Not to mention he starts practicing with us next month.

Since Connor will be enrolling in the spring he will be able to practice with us once the fall semester ends. Probably just scout team and such, but a chance to get his feet wet nonetheless.

[meanrob]

Wait, we're gonna backhandedly criticize Thompson's mobility as the stone-footed era then compare everyoe else's high school passing stats?

Rick

Yeah, he could've made his point without throwing DT under the bus.

Pretty sure both Smith and Vizza were more highly recruited.

[meanrob]

Not to mention he starts practicing with us next month.

Since Connor will be enrolling in the spring he will be able to practice with us once the fall semester ends. Probably just scout team and such, but a chance to get his feet wet nonetheless.

Not saying you're wrong but I have never heard of this. Spring yes, but bowl practice?

[BillySee58]

Not saying you're wrong but I have never heard of this. Spring yes, but bowl practice?

No, it's a real thing. He doesn't get to travel with the team and he isn't eligible to play in the game, but he can practice at UNT with the team. If we travel to a bowl then he wouldn't be able to practice with the team at the bowl site, but he can participate in the practices at our field. Not the bowl sponsored practices at the stadium of the bowl.

Sorry. Felt like I repeated myself a lot there.

[PlummMeanGreen]

How can any fans or alums from a Lone Star State D1 school ever forget how unknown commodity and (then) Texas HS recruit Drew Brees could not out of our (then) 10 (?) D1 schools to give him the time of day and how he had to shop himself to Purdue U? That story might tell many of us that we should just let em' get to campus to see what they can do with a good college QB-developing coaching staff. (Might Drew's NFL team win another Super Bowl this season)?

Schools like Boise State, Kansas State, Iowa State and North Texas will rarely (if ever) have a Top 25 natonally recruited class and will most always have to recruit kids who have the basic, natural skills that we all hope will develop at the next level.

GMG!

Edited November 27, 2013 by PlummMeanGreen

[meanrob]

Just read it was possible.

Thanks for the reply.

[UNT90]

We're going to have some great young receivers here next season.

With all due respect, we have no idea whether they will be great or not. They are HS seniors. Can anyone tell me the name of the tall kid that was gonna be our wife receiver savior a couple if years ago, but transferred or quit because he couldn't make the 2 deep? I dang sure can't remember.

Good to get a couple if nice HS receivers. Hopefully they will be good college receivers. Only time will tell.

[Eppie96]

Zen,

Nice post. You may have a career as a sports writer. Nice analysis. I sure hope DW is our guy of the future- he looked pretty good out there against Idaho.