We are not a "run first" team (long and insightful)

The Fake Lonnie Finch · October 7, 2013

Through five games, we are tied for ninth out 14 C-USA team is rushes per game with 34.6. We throw the ball 38.6 times per game, good for fifth best in the league.

We throw for 287.4 per game, third best in the conference, behind only East Carolina and Marshall. Our 112.6 yards rushing is tied for 11th in the league.

Look, those of you who bitch about the playcalling, saying it isn't balanced...how much more balanced can you get than 34.6 rushes and 38.6 passes per game? It's almost perfectly balanced so far!

The problem is the results. We are getting results through the air, not the ground...and, this is something no one expected before the season began.

Further...

Among C-USA starting QBs, only four have more touchdown passes than Derek Thompson. Marshall's acclaimed QB Rakeem Cato has thrown four interceptions in 180 attempts; Derek has thrown five in 181. Neither Tulsa nor Rice's starters have thrown for more touchdowns than interceptions...and, these are considered pass-oriented teams.

Among the C-USA starting QBs, Thompson is third in QB Efficiency (139.5) behind only ECU's Shane Carden (148.5) and Marshall's Cato (139.6). He and Cato are neck and neck in efficiency. Cato was written about as a dark horse Heisman candidate before the season.

Among C-USA starting QBs, Thompson is second in completion percentage (68.0%), behind only ECU's Carden (73.4%). Thompson and Carden are the only two starting QBs in the C-USA who are completing more than 63.0% of their passes.

Folks, our problem is not Derek Thompson. Not in the least. In fact, let's be real. Many of you pooh-poohed him severely before the season, and he is performing at the highest level in this new conference.

I think we need to give credit where creidt is due, so far. Derek Thompson has played above and beyond what many of you expected. I'm been 137% on the DT bandwagon since the spring, and he's doing better than even I thought he would.

Offensively, there also needs to be a ton of credit given to receiver coach Mike Grant. This is a guy who spent nine years with McCarney at Iowa State. He is the epitome of the type of assistant we needed on staff badly after the Dodge years. Grant was a hell of a player at Nebraska, and he's obviously a hell of a coach. Whatever we are paying him, it isn't enough.

In addition to Grant, his group of players. I bitched and complained about the lack of playmakers in 2012, especially after Chancellor was gone. The team needed guys to step up this year, and they have.

Darnell Smith is fifth in the C-USA in receiving yards per game at 80.2; Chancellor is seventh at 74.2. Only two C-USA receiver who have caught at least 20 passes this season also have hauled them in for 15.0 per catch or better. Brelan Chancellor is getting us 15.5 per catch. Only UAB's Jamarcus Nelson is better at 17.6 per catch.

Three UNT receivers are in the C-USA among the top 11 in receptions thusfar: Smith is fourth in the league with 36, Chancellor is 10th with 24 and Carlos Harris is 11th with 23. No other school even has two other receivers in the top 11!

That means guys are getting open and making plays when the ball is distributed to them.

We have much to be happy about in the pass game, folks. The run game, not so much. If the run game can get on track, we DO have the backs to inflict pain and suffering on defenses. We have a trio who are more than capable. If it begins to click the way the passing game already is, then...BANG...no one will come close to us in the C-USA West for the rest of the season.

As always, hear me now, believe me later.

LongJim · October 7, 2013

Good post.

outoftown · October 7, 2013

Who says UNT should be balanced... with the talent profile this team has, we should throw it considerably more than 50% on first down from the get go... It seems that with these coaches that can only happen once UNT is behind. And too much first and second down running are definitely part of the problem. Passing numbers overall look good, but I am sure if you had those numbers for the first and for the second half, you would find out that this team indeed runs first, and passes in the second half.

The coaches may not like it, it may not agree with their personalities, but this teams offense is best in shootout style games (uptempo, passing). Everything else is equaling not maximizing the success this team can have. The defense is good enough to play out of character a bit if necessary, but the O is not. The coaches need to let them play in character and that is uptempo and pass first, not balanced, and even less run first.

I am not saying this season will not end well... but indeed that this team is more talented than the results show so far, and that the results don't show the teams talent is on the coaches

Edited October 7, 2013 by outoftown

houstonmeangreen · October 7, 2013

Who says UNT should be balanced... with the talent profile this team has, we should throw it considerably more than 50% on first down from the get go... It seems that with these coaches that can only happen once UNT is behind. And too much first and second down running are definitely part of the problem. Passing numbers overall look good, but I am sure if you had those numbers for the first and for the second half, you would find out that this team indeed runs first, and passes in the second half.

The coaches may not like it, it may not agree with their personalities, but this teams offense is best in shootout style games (uptempo, passing). Everything else is equaling not maximizing the success this team can have. The defense is good enough to play out of character a bit if necessary, but the O is not. The coaches need to let them play in character and that is uptempo and pass first, not balanced, and even less run first.

I am not saying this season will not end well... but indeed that this team is more talented than the results show so far, and that the results don't show the teams talent is on the coaches

This is IT my friend...if we make yrds by passing, then passing it is...quit wasting our offensive downs by running, then 3 and out. DT has done what I consider a very good job and we have the receivers who can make plays....it is this conservative play thinking that has cost us so many games last year and this....this kicking a field goal early in the game (the one that was returned for TD) is just stupid in my opinion...this offense should be full throttle (like Baylors)...the play calling in the first half just sucked...and who's fault is that ? oh yea !!!

TheColonyEagle · October 7, 2013

Look, those of you who bitch about the playcalling, saying it isn't balanced...how much more balanced can you get than 34.6 rushes and 38.6 passes per game? It's almost perfectly balanced so far!

The problem is the results. We are getting results through the air, not the ground...and, this is something no one expected before the season began.

I think (from what I'm reading on here) that people aren't necessarily frustrated with a "balance" or lack of. I think the frustration comes in the coaches (or Mac's) stubborn refusal to get away from the run when it's obviously not working.

35 rushes per game and 39 passes per game.....

Maybe if the breakdown was 25 rushes and 49 passes we would be 3-2 or 4-1 vs 2-3.

Our own QB said it felt like they just kept ramming their head into a brick wall. Maybe if they took the 3rd quarter strategy and applied it to the 2nd quarter we wouldn't have been playing from behind in the second half.....again.

For whatever reason, our running game is not working early in games this year.

Adapt or die.

TheColonyEagle · October 7, 2013

As to the title of the thread...."run first"

My guess is you mean run "more" because we definitely run "first."

Harry · October 7, 2013

OK SSP posted the Tulane highlight video and since it highlights our worst plays it is a good resource to see what is going wrong:

Focus on the running game plays and you will clearly see the breakdowns... you will also see what is happening on the pass rush...

Harry · October 7, 2013

One thing that absolutely jumps out at me is at the 17 second point. We are lined up in that "A" formation with two backs beside DT and one behind him like 3-yards...

The left back is #18 Marcus Smith...his job is to take on the right defensive end #43. He makes contact and that is about it. #43 easily gets by him after that and makes the play for a loss.

Guys -- I think Marcus Smith has a lot of potential and will be a great pass receiver someday if we can deliver him the ball. He IS NOT a good blocker, never has been and may never be. He is like Andy Blount a converted wide receiver who never liked blocking and never was going to be a good blocker although he improved over his career.

So if it is VERY clear in practice and on the film that Smith can't block, why in crapola are we relying on him to make a key block in a critical game like this?

The coaches use the term execution but to me that's just simply knowing the strengths and weaknesses in your players. Marcus Smith is not going to help this running game right now! Bring him in as a receiver on 3rd downs but don't line him up in the backfield! And get rid of the A formation -- I have seen more problems with that formation and I think it allows the defense to load up inside versus spreading them out.

outoftown · October 7, 2013

OK SSP posted the Tulane highlight video and since it highlights our worst plays it is a good resource to see what is going wrong:

Focus on the running game plays and you will clearly see the breakdowns... you will also see what is happening on the pass rush...

I am not sure what you want to say with that... but probably the the OL is decent pretty good at protectintg the passer but quite bad at run blocking. Which is part of why the talent profile of this offense is what it is

edit: just saw your next post now and that is pretty exactly what i think

Edited October 7, 2013 by outoftown

The Fake Lonnie Finch · October 7, 2013

OK SSP posted the Tulane highlight video and since it highlights our worst plays it is a good resource to see what is going wrong:

Focus on the running game plays and you will clearly see the breakdowns... you will also see what is happening on the pass rush...

Followed the game mostly online Saturday because my son had a baseball game at 3. This is the first time I've seen the blocked field goal (3:00 to 3:30 mark of the clips). Wow. I mean. Wow. How in the f*ck does nobody even touch that guy.

Now that I've seen that, chalk that up, for me, as worse than the problems the lack of a run game caused us. Geez, if they are going to block a kick, at least make them work for it.

Harry · October 7, 2013

It appears to me that TE Marcus Smith #18 is where #2 came through on the blocked kick. Smith Blocks inside on a big lineman and lets the speedster go right by him....

GrayEagle · October 7, 2013

If anyone says that we're a "run first" team they're probably thinking of first down. On first down we have rushed 92 times while passing 68 times. We have our highest completion percentage (nearly 80%) on first down completions yet we continue to run more and gain about half the yardage.

I don't complain about balancing out the number of passing and running plays but I do complain about our being so predictable. If we are effective running the ball then we tend to stick with it. But, unlike last year, we haven't been able to gain much running so we turn to the pass on second and third down. Then if we are in the opponent's end of the field we will run on fourth down. We continue doing that in spite of the fact that it has a poor success rate. We have only passed three times on fourth down this year and have completed them all.

But yes, Derek Thompson is a much improved quarterback over last year. His quarterback rating is much better which means that he has completed more passes with fewer interceptions. However, he still doesn't have a large percentage of touchdown throws. That could come with better play-calling.

He has two excellent receivers this year that should be utilized to their fullest because they are seniors.

We have thrown nine more passes than rushing plays but those seem to be orchestrated because the runners have failed to deliver. I'd like to see us pass more on first down and use passes as our primary offensive weapon.

Got5onIt · October 7, 2013

Maybe NT has more passes than runs because they're always playing from behind?

UNT90 · October 7, 2013

If anyone says that we're a "run first" team they're probably thinking of first down. On first down we have rushed 92 times while passing 68 times. We have our highest completion percentage (nearly 80%) on first down completions yet we continue to run more and gain about half the yardage.
I don't complain about balancing out the number of passing and running plays but I do complain about our being so predictable. If we are effective running the ball then we tend to stick with it. But, unlike last year, we haven't been able to gain much running so we turn to the pass on second and third down. Then if we are in the opponent's end of the field we will run on fourth down. We continue doing that in spite of the fact that it has a poor success rate. We have only passed three times on fourth down this year and have completed them all.
But yes, Derek Thompson is a much improved quarterback over last year. His quarterback rating is much better which means that he has completed more passes with fewer interceptions. However, he still doesn't have a large percentage of touchdown throws. That could come with better play-calling.
He has two excellent receivers this year that should be utilized to their fullest because they are seniors.
We have thrown nine more passes than rushing plays but those seem to be orchestrated because the runners have failed to deliver. I'd like to see us pass more on first down and use passes as our primary offensive weapon.

Also, look at 1st half vs 2nd half stats. You will find a run heavy 1st half team and a pass heavy second half team.

And exactly what I am talking about on 1st down balance.

TFLF, when I talk about offensive balance, I mean balance during a series and balance on 1st downs. Balance to where the defense never knows what you are going to do. Not run in the 1st half, get behind, then throw in the second half type of balance. Every team we have played knows what is coming.

We are lucky to be 2-3 and not 1-4.

GrandGreen · October 7, 2013

I don't think you can make that analysis totally based on run versus pass numbers, because in general McCarney would prefer to run a lot more, the team is just very poor at it at this point. NT runs up the middle until it is obvious to everyone that they are having no success than they go into a much more heavy pass attack.

The problem is that even running into stacked to stop the run defenses, NT is worse than they should be. Last year, with Powers and other tight ends; NT was able to even up the odds on the line and still effectively move the ball in most games.

I have never thought the NT offensive line was any better than average in the McCarney era. The past two years it was full of underclassmen and they were good considering that, but now with the exception of Kirby, it is all upper classmen and it struggling on run plays. They do pass block much better, but it is past time to step it up in the running game.

Edited October 7, 2013 by GrandGreen

Marty · October 7, 2013

It appears to me that TE Marcus Smith #18 is where #2 came through on the blocked kick. Smith Blocks inside on a big lineman and lets the speedster go right by him....

..and walk on Andy Flusche #99 blocks outside instead of down, that's where #2 came from.

meangreener · October 7, 2013

Thank you for bringing sanity to this board in regards to DT. Last year he was weak but he's excellent this year.

TIgreen01 · October 9, 2013

It seems like some actual facts might help clear up some misconceptions being spread in this argument. Facts like what were the actual called plays. For instance, we started the Tulane game by PASSING on the very first play. We followed it up with a run, then missed on a pass on 3rd down. Here's the breakdown of the first quarter from the box score:

North Texas wins toss and will RECEIVE. Tulane defends SOUTH.

Nt 1-10 at Nt35 TLN ball on TLN30.

Tln 1-10 at Tln30 TLN ball on TLN35.

SANTOS, Cairo kickoff 65 yards to the NT0, touchback.

Nt 1-10 at Nt25 [GUN], Thompson, Derek middle pass complete to Harris, Carlos for 2 yards to the NT27 (DAVIS, Zach).

Nt 2-8 at Nt27 Byrd, Brandin rush over right guard for no gain to the NT27 (DAVENPORT, C.).

Nt 3-8 at Nt27 Thompson, Derek deep pass incomplete to Miller, Drew.

Nt 4-8 at Nt27 Macek, Blake punt 34 yards to the TLN39, fair catch by BOUTTE, Devin.

Drive: 3 plays, 2 yards, TOP 01:08

Tln 1-10 at Tln39 TULANE drive start at 13:52.

Tln 1-10 at Tln39 MONTANA, Nick pass complete to DARKWA, Orleans for 6 yards to the TLN45 (Akunne, Derek).

Tln 2-4 at Tln45 DARKWA, Orleans rush over left tackle for no gain to the TLN45 (Lee, Lairamie).

Tln 3-4 at Tln45 MONTANA, Nick pass complete to GRANT, Ryan for 3 yards to the TLN48 (Whitfield, Zac).

Tln 4-1 at Tln48 PICERELLI, P. punt 36 yards to the NT16, fair catch by CHANCELLOR, B..

Drive: 3 plays, 9 yards, TOP 01:18

Nt 1-10 at Nt16 NORTH TEXAS drive start at 12:34.

Nt 1-10 at Nt16 [GUN], Byrd, Brandin rush over left end for 2 yards to the NT18 (MARLEY, Nico).

Nt 2-8 at Nt18 PENALTY NT false start (McKinney, Shawn) 5 yards to the NT13.

Nt 2-13 at Nt13 [GUN], Byrd, Brandin rush up middle for 4 yards to the NT17 (ROBINSON, Andre).

Nt 3-9 at Nt17 [GUN], Thompson, Derek middle pass complete to Smith, Darnell for 14 yards to the NT31, 1ST DOWN NT (STROZIER, D.;MONROE, Darion), QB hurry by DAVIS, Zach.

Nt 1-10 at Nt31 [GUN], Thompson, Derek screen pass complete to Byrd, Brandin for 3 yards to the NT34 (MARLEY, Nico).

Nt 2-7 at Nt34 [GUN], Byrd, Brandin rush over left tackle for loss of 2 yards to the NT32 (GILBERT, Tyler).

Nt 3-9 at Nt32 [GUN], Thompson, Derek pass intercepted by DOSS, Lorenzo at the NT45, DOSS, Lorenzo return 8 yards to the NT37 (Thompson, Derek).

Drive: 6 plays, 16 yards, TOP 03:00

Tln 1-10 at Nt37 TULANE drive start at 09:34.

Tln 1-10 at Nt37 KELLEY, Rob rush over left guard for loss of 1 yard to the NT38 (Akunne, Derek).

Tln 2-11 at Nt38 MONTANA, Nick sideline pass complete to RUSH, Xavier for 1 yard to the NT37 (Jones, James).

Tulane's #82 X.Rush was injured on the play.

Tln 3-10 at Nt37 [GUN], MONTANA, Nick rush QX for 11 yards to the NT26, 1ST DOWN TLN, out-of-bounds (Jones, James).

Tln 1-10 at Nt26 [GUN], DARKWA, Orleans rush over right guard for 8 yards to the NT18 (Wright, Will).

Tln 2-2 at Nt18 [GUN], DARKWA, Orleans rush over left tackle for 2 yards to the NT16, 1ST DOWN TLN (Jones, James).

Tln 1-10 at Nt16 [GUN], MONTANA, Nick flag pass incomplete to SHACKLEFORD, J. (Whitfield, Zac).

The previous play is UNDER REVIEW.

Kelley was tackled and appeared to fumble, recovered by North Texas

#13 J.Jones. However, the official ruled Kelley down by contact.

After review, the rule is REVERSED.

The play is a 6-yard gain, a fumble, recovered by North Texas.

Tln 2-10 at Nt16 KELLEY, Rob rush over left tackle for 6 yards to the NT10, fumble forced by Trice, Marcus, fumble by KELLEY, Rob recovered by NT Jones, James at NT10.

Drive: 7 plays, 27 yards, TOP 02:46

Nt 1-10 at Nt10 NORTH TEXAS drive start at 06:48.

Nt 1-10 at Nt10 Pegram, Reggie rush over right guard for 6 yards to the NT16 (DAVIS, Zach).

Nt 2-4 at Nt16 [GUN], Pegram, Reggie rush over right guard for 2 yards to the NT18 (MARLEY, Nico).

Nt 3-2 at Nt18 [GUN], Pegram, Reggie rush over left end for 6 yards to the NT24, 1ST DOWN NT (MONROE, Darion).

Nt 1-10 at Nt24 [GUN], Pegram, Reggie rush draw play for loss of 5 yards to the NT19 (WARMSLEY, J.;MARLEY, Nico).

Nt 2-15 at Nt19 [GUN], Byrd, Brandin rush DY for loss of 5 yards to the NT14 (DAVENPORT, C.;DAVIS, Zach).

Nt 3-20 at Nt14 Timeout Tulane, clock 03:45.

Nt 3-20 at Nt14 [GUN], Thompson, Derek rush draw play for 7 yards to the NT21 (BATISTE, Jordan).

Nt 4-13 at Nt21 Macek, Blake punt 50 yards to the TLN29, fair catch by BOUTTE, Devin.

Drive: 6 plays, 11 yards, TOP 03:46

Tln 1-10 at Tln29 TULANE drive start at 03:02.

Tln 1-10 at Tln29 DARKWA, Orleans rush over left tackle for 4 yards to the TLN33 (Buyers, Kenny).

Tln 2-6 at Tln33 [GUN], MONTANA, Nick deep pass incomplete to LONDON, Sydie, QB hurry by McCoy, Brandon.

Tln 3-6 at Tln33 [GUN], MONTANA, Nick middle pass incomplete to RUSH, Xavier (Lee, Lairamie), QB hurry by McCoy, Brandon.

Tln 4-6 at Tln33 PICERELLI, P. punt 39 yards to the NT28, CHANCELLOR, B. return 10 yards to the NT38, out-of-bounds (ROBERTSON, D.).

Drive: 3 plays, 4 yards, TOP 01:00

Nt 1-10 at Nt38 NORTH TEXAS drive start at 02:02.

Nt 1-10 at Nt38 [GUN], Thompson, Derek sideline pass complete to Smith, Darnell for 13 yards to the TLN49, 1ST DOWN NT.

Nt 1-10 at Tln49 [GUN], Pegram, Reggie rush DY for no gain to the TLN49 (REDWINE, Corey).

Nt 2-10 at Tln49 [GUN], Thompson, Derek middle pass complete to Smith, Tanner for 4 yards to the TLN45 (STROZIER, D.).

Nt 3-6 at Tln45 [GUN], Thompson, Derek slant pass complete to Pegram, Reggie for loss of 4 yards to the TLN49 (SCOFIELD, Sam).

Drive: 4 plays, 13 yards, TOP 02:11

It's pretty obvious that once DT threw that interception over the middle of the field that we over corrected on the next series and ran it on EVERY down. Granted, we had some success and got a first down before we lost 10 yards on 2 plays. I'm guessing those 2 plays were the dreaded 'A' or 'V' formation plays that everyone remembers so well. On our next series we immediately opened up with another pass, though.

VideoEagle · October 9, 2013

It's pretty obvious that once DT threw that interception over the middle of the field that we over corrected on the next series and ran it on EVERY down. Granted, we had some success and got a first down before we lost 10 yards on 2 plays. I'm guessing those 2 plays were the dreaded 'A' or 'V' formation plays that everyone remembers so well. On our next series we immediately opened up with another pass, though.

Great analysis with the context!

I have thought for the last few years a lot of our play calling - offense, defense and special teams - is the result of over reacting. I'm guessing (actually hoping) someone charted the best plays for every down and distance for both teams before each game. I would hope someone is updating them during the game. Excel isn't that hard! One very bad play doesn't mean the charts are all wrong, it means someone didn't execute. Likewise one great play doesn't mean the charts are all wrong either, just someone executed better than usual or the other team didn't execute. Adapt but don't over react. Change what you are doing over time and if analysis shows a particular weakness or strength move more toward it but don't do that to the exclusion of everything else.

eulessismore · October 9, 2013

Maybe it is a lot easier to throw on a team when they are up by 2 TDs all the time?

Not a problem with the amount of run plays, just the timing.

Throw out of the gate and the run will be there later. This team is determined to run to set up the throw, when it looks like it should be the opposite.

YES! Finally, sometime states the perhaps too obvious point, although I think 90 also has been saying this in so many words for a while. I'll always remember our local high school coach (yeah, I know), Steve Lineweaver, saying at a booster club meeting of our Trinity Trojans, "we pass to set up the run".

Edited October 9, 2013 by eulessismore

UNT90 · October 9, 2013

YES! Finally, sometime states the perhaps too obvious point, although I think 90 also has been saying this in so many words for a while. I'll always remember our local high school coach (yeah, I know), Steve Lineweaver, saying at a booster club meeting of our Trinity Trojans, "we pass to set up the run".

We run to set up the run.

If I knew how, I would make that my sig line.

VideoEagle · October 9, 2013

We run to set up the run.
If I knew how, I would make that my sig line.

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