THE BREAK DOWN (Georgia vs North Texas)

College Football News.com, -North Texas is playing well compared to the Conference USA measuring stick, but even an unfocused Georgia will have few problems pulling away in this one. The Bulldogs will push on the gas pedal as much as is necessary, strafing the Mean Green with Murray’s throws and the running of Gurley if at any point the game becomes interesting.

Prediction: Georgia 49 … North Texas 14

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1327896.html

AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview:

Georgia is a heavy favorite winning 96% of simulations over North Texas. Aaron Murray is averaging 280 passing yards and 3.4 TDs per simulation and Todd Gurley is projected for 116 rushing yards and a 86% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 4% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 1.37 TD passes vs 0.57 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.57 TDs to 0.94 interceptions. Brandin Byrd averages 93 rushing yards and 0.68 rushing TDs when North Texas wins and 80 yards and 0.25 TDs in losses. Georgia has a 36% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 99% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is GA -32.5 --- Over/Under line is 67

https://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/college-football/9-21-2013/north-texas-eagles-georgia-bulldogs-128

What to Expect When_______________.

UNT has the Ball: Let me start out by saying that UNT should not be considered an explosive offense. That being said it's not an offense that you want to under-estimate. They can challenge your defense in multiple ways. First off they can use their punishing run game. This is a run game that features two backs who really challenge a defender to wrap up. Rarely do you see the UNT running backs Brandin Byrd and Reggie Pegram landing on their back. Both of these guys run with good vision, which is key because they are not speed guys. Helping clear holes for these two bruisers is an offensive line that loves to mash. They are at their best when they are run blocking and grinding on you. Secondly UNT can be an efficient and effective passing team. They don't rely on big plays down the field, rather they hit you with quick passes to the flats and intermediate crossing routes. The receivers have shown tremendous improvement from last years group. Head lined by Brelan Chancellor this group has been deceptively good. Finally, quarterback Derek Thompson has proved that you need to honor his feet. Thompson is no Vince Young, but he does enough with his feet to move the pocket and scramble for first downs. All those things add up to a UNT offense that is balanced and effective when playing efficiently. This week facing an SEC defense they will need to be at the top-level of their efficiency if they want to make it a game.

Georgia is not what I would call a traditional SEC defense. They are good, but not scary good. They give up yards and points. Georgia is a 3-4 defense that plays with pretty much the same alignment every time, but they like to switch it up the personnel. For example here Georgia comes out with two OLB, a Nose tackle, and a DE on the line.

South Carolina attacked this scheme with a zone read to the left. Why? Because of the bubble or separation in the defensive line to the left. Look at the separation between the DE and OLB. The result of the play was a TD. Later in the game you see the same alignment. This time the OLBs have their hands in the dirt, which is a good indication that they are rushing the QB. South Carolina uses a variation of the zone read again to the left attack the bubble and ends up with a 75 yard run.

In Georgia 3-4 scheme expect to always see two inside linebackers 5 yards off the ball unless its 3 down and very long, over 10 yards. In that case they drop everybody to the first down line and only rush 3. Okay so getting back to it the alignment, expect to see the OLB's always on the line of scrimmage. The OLB's will either be standing up or have a hand in the dirt. If you pay close attention to their stance when standing up you can almost tell when they are rushing the passer or attacking. On the defensive line they will either play two DE's and one Nosetackle or one DE and one Nose. Their DE's are pretty big so it's almost like they are DT's.

So where does UNT attack them? UNT can take advantage of young secondary by doing what it does best in the passing game, attacking with short to intermediate passes. In watching Georgia in two games it became apparent that they have trouble defending those passes. They often rely on a zone defense which has holes. If the offensive line for UNT can keep Thompson upright he is going to have options to throw to I'm sure of it. The Georgia secondary is very young and it showed against Clemson and South Carolina. Specifically Brendan Langley, UNT should attack him early and often. I think it's going to be rare to see Langley and Chancellor matched-up, but a veteran guy like Darnell Smith could end up having a really big day. One thing Thompson has to be careful with it throwing into a dropping LB on the zoneblitz. UGA likes the blitz with the zone coverage behind it and a lot of times you see those OLB's dropping back into coverage with a safety or corner coming off the edge and a ILB up the middle. Running the ball I feel UNT can take advantage of the bubbles or gaps in the defense which often occur between the guard and tackle. Running right up the middle is not really a good option against Georgia because they do a really good job at clogging the holes.

Georgia has the Ball: Georgia's offense is good, it's not a high-flying act like a Oregon or Texas A&M, but still they generate a lot of yards and points. How do they do it? Well its an old school approach with some new school infused in. They love to ram it down your throat with possibly the best running back in the country, Todd Gurley. I don't believe anybody is running at his level, and to be honest if he doesn't go out against Clemson I think they would have won that game. Georgia is not a team who uses speed to beat you. They much rather prefer to get the big uglies on your guys and run down hill at you. They love to run to the short side of the field and get you in a shoe box or phone booth as some guys put it. It was a very effective strategy against South Carolina. The Gamecocks could literally not come close to stopping them from running the ball. When Gurley is not in there, backup running back Keith Marshall carries the load. He is just as explosive and possibly quicker, but UNT can't take him lightly. He has every ability to break tackles and take it to the house. One thing UGA likes to do with Marshall is to throw flare passes to him out of the backfield and he is quite capable of taking those to the house as well. This offense is not all Gurley & Marshall, they have a pretty darn good QB slinging the ball around. Aaron Murray is a really good QB. He one of the most accurate passers in college football. He does a good job a getting rid of the ball in a hurry to his wide-outs. The Georgia wide-outs are OK in my book. They are nothing to lose sleep over. Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley are the best out of the group. Bennett is a good route runner and does a good job of getting open on 3rd down, look for him to line up in the slot. Also, UNT can't sleep on their TE Arthur Lynch he a good-looking prospect at TE.

In order to stop the Georgia offense UNT is going to need to stop the run. They have to do everything in their power to clog up the running lanes and tackle. If you go back and look at the Clemson game Clemson did a good job of slowing down the running game in the second half. Besides slowing down the running game, UNT will need to do a good job of collapsing the pocket. They don't always have to get home against Murray, but forcing him to make quicker throws and closing down his throwing lanes is essential to disrupting the UGA offense. Clemson also did a good job of pressuring Murray with blitzes off the edges. So we could certainly see the corner blitz that UNT likes to dial-up. Still though its going to be a tall task to slow down this offense. Good news is that it might rain. That might slow down the Georgia passing game, but the run game is still going to be a beast to slow down.

Impact Players:

Georgia: QB Aaron Murray

Todd Gurley is going to be the main focus of the North Texas defense. It's no disrespect to Murray, but UNT is going to force him to beat them. That's going to lead Murray to having a pretty big day, he is going to take advantage of an aggressive UNT defense who wants to fly down hill and stop the run. There will be plenty of eyes in the backfield on Saturday and most will be on Gurley not Murray. His accuracy and quick decisions are really going to put UNT in a bind. He won't throw a lot because of the weather impacts, but when he does its going to be efficient and go for big yards.

STAT PREDICTION: 21-30 310 yards 4 TD's 1 int

North Texas: RB Reggie Pegram

Reggie has been getting better and better each week. This week I think he will play a big part in UNT staying in the game. His tough running will help UNT move the chains. He isn't going to go off for some ridiculous number like a 100 yards, but he is going to put up solid totals.

STAT PREDICTION: 17 carries 67 yards 2 TD's

Game Prediction:

It's time to talk upset! Okay maybe not so much. Anyway you break this game down its hard to come away thinking that UNT can win this game. A lot has to go right for UNT to have a chance to win this game. They are facing a really good Georgia team, maybe not national championship good, but non the less its the best team the Mean Green has faced this year. I think UNT has enough in its tank to make this a game for 3 quarters. What gives me reason to believe that UNT can hang with Georgia is how well the defense is playing. If they can force a few mistakes early on from Georgia they might hang around. Georgia may run out to an early lead and then take their foot off the pedal giving UNT the chance to do what it has done best this year, battle back.

I think Georgia will own the first half pulling out to a sizeable double digit lead. UNT will make adjustments and show some fight and heart making it a game late in the 3rd quarter. In the end Georgia will pull away down the stretch in the 4th. Too much offense for UNT to stop. The boys in Green will put forth a great effort and put C-USA on notice that they are for real and ready to challenge for the conference tittle.

Georgia 40 - North Texas 26

Go Mean Green!

Read More: http://tmgbr.com/2013/09/20/the-break-down-3/

"Inside the Film Room" segment returns this week with formation looks as well as season trends. We also have the

Projected Starters Listed, Positional Advantages, & Game Play Advantages added. Check it out. I appreciate the feedback

adman · September 20, 2013

really enjoy reading your breakdowns. Keep up the good work.

LongJim · September 20, 2013

Nice job. Play hard and let's see what happens. Get out without injuries.

TheColonyEagle · September 20, 2013

AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview:

In the 4% of simulations where North Texas wins...

So you're sayin'.........

Mean_Green09 · September 20, 2013

Thank you appreciate your comments.

Nice Dawg · September 20, 2013

This is a great, well-thought breakdown. I'm going to this game because it's so tough and expensive to get tickets when UGA is playing an SEC school.

Mark Richt's team's do not try to run up the score, so if they do have good lead, they will begin to pull the starters. Not saying that the Mean Green can't score on the first team. Buffalo played UGA really tough last year. But if UGA's defense can keep the Mean Green from putting up a lot of points by halftime, Richt will pull the starters and the 2nd half will be a grind-it-out kind of game when UGA has the ball, and Murray and Gurley will be gone.

Edited September 20, 2013 by Nice Dawg

jdennis82 · September 21, 2013

Great breakdown...

You mention the team falling behind early and that's my primary concern as well.

We've seen too many examples of the team exiting the locker room for the first half not fully engaged resulting in big plays early. This CAN'T happen if we're to keep it close. Yes, the team's as resilient as ever, but that atmosphere (especially off a UGA bye week) will be suffocating if fans are given extra reason to explode.

It seems that the early mistakes aren't physical but mental/scheme related.

Because tackling has been so crisp and the offense has been so effective at avoid turnovers, if we can shore up these early mental errors, I think we can hang in early and long enough represent well and ultimately exit the game with even more confidence in where this thing is headed.