The Break Down (North Texas vs Ball St.)

Mean_Green09 · September 13, 2013

North Texas Mean Green vs. Ball State Cardinals

http://tmgbr.com/2013/09/13/the-break-down-2/

Date: September 14, 2013

Time: 3:00 pm CT

Location: Denton, TX

Line: Ball St -3.5

What They’re Saying:

Sports Network: NT has a realistic chance of putting a blemish on the Cardinals’ perfect record. BSU’s defense relies on turnovers as it has trouble stopping both the run and the pass. Thompson threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns in 2012, but his accuracy has been significantly better for his senior campaign. Although Wenning has more proven weapons to work with than his counterpart, he will be facing a much tougher defense on the road. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: North Texas 31, Ball State 27 Read More: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/game/preview/l.ncaa.org.mfoot-2013-e.39208/

ESPN Pick Center:

TEAMRANKINGS – Ball St 30 – North Texas 26

numberFire – Ball St 33 – North Texas 28

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/pickcenter/ncf/game?gameid=332570249

AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview: Ball State is a solid favorite with a 65% chance to beat North Texas. Jahwan Edwards is projected for 107 rushing yards and a 72% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 35% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 2.63 TD passes vs 0.66 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.38 TDs to 0.83 interceptions. Brandin Byrd averages 99 rushing yards and 0.86 rushing TDs when North Texas wins and 89 yards and 0.48 TDs in losses. Ball State has a 34% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 76% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NTEX +3 — Over/Under line is 61. http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/college-football/9-14-2013/ball-state-north-texas-eagles-109

Coach Pete Lembo – “Everybody is keeping things inside and in front,” Lembo said. “It’s very hard to get explosive plays against them. They are a very physical team that is very much on the same page. It’ll be a huge challenge for us.”

What to Expect When_______________.

UNT has the Ball:

The Mean Green are quite predictable when it comes to their offense. They want to run the ball on first down to establish positive yardage on second down. Their running game which has been referred to as a hammer features 3 220 lb. backs ( Brandin Byrd, Antoinne Jimmerson, & Reggie Pegram). UNT is what I would refer to as a team that uses the run to set up the pass. If UNT is un-able to run the ball then it will turn into a long day for the Mean Green. In order to free up some pressure from that running game, UNT will rely on WR’s Brelan Chancellor and Darnell Smith. Chancellor is going to get the most attention so Smith will need to continue his good play along with a guy like Carlos Harris. Harris and Smith need to force teams to pay attention to them, until they do Chancellor is going to blanketed. Senior Derek Thompson has played well, but the big mistake continues to be is down fall. He needs to get the ball out of his hands quickly in this game, and that’s what UNT is going to try and do. The longer Thompson holds on to the ball the more chance of something bad happening. He just seems to get uncomfortable when he has to go through his full progression. Again expect for UNT to try and grind this one out. They will look to establish the run game and move the chains. They will do anything to keep the Ball St. offense off the field.

On defense Ball is not as good as last week’s foe Ohio, but they can still cause some problems for UNT. The defense line is quite possible the best in the MAC. They do a great job of pressuring the QB. Their line backers are the weak point of the defense; they had a tough time making the right reads against Army last week. One has to wonder if UNT can exploit them with dare I say TE? Coach MaCarney said this week that UNT was going to try to get the ball more to the TE, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one. Ball St. has a good secondary and should be able to match-up man for man with the Mean Green. They will most likely roll extra coverage to Brelan Chancellor to force someone us to beat them.

Ball St. has the Ball:

The Cardinals are the complete opposite of UNT. They rely on the pass to set up the run. They will put the ball in the hands of their All-Conference caliber QB Keith Wenning. He is going to throw it early and often on Saturday. It doesn’t really matter what down and distance the Cardinals are a threat to put it in the air. Wenning has an above average crew to toss the ball to. His favorite target is SR Willie Snead; he has been targeted 28 times already this year! Snead is not a big target, but does a great job in getting open. Ball St. will use motion to get him all alone on one side of the field. They like the setup of 3 receivers to the far side of the field with Snead lined up short side. This gives them a lot of options because the guys on the other side of field are good players too. Look for them to force the Mean Green to roll an extra safety towards Snead, because UNT does not have a guy who can cover him one on one. The Cardinals running game is not explosive, but it is effective. Their main guy Jahwan Edwards is not likely to play so they will turn to Horactio Banks who has done a nice job filling in so far. If there is a weakness on this offense it’s the O-Line. They lost 147 career starts from last year’s group.

UNT will need to take that weakness and use it to its advantage. If there is one way to slow down a good passing team it’s with a good pass rush. The UNT defensive line has to play huge in this game. I mean like really huge. The front four whoever it is needs to do a good job of collapsing the pocket. Wenning is not a scrambler, but he does have good enough feet to elude pressure when he needs to. The line backers for UNT are about as solid as it gets. Expect to see this group flying all over the field making plays. In the secondary UNT is average. They have guys who can make plays, but too often you see one of those guys getting caught out of position. One of the biggest concerns is the play action pass. The UNT safeties bit on the first play last week and helped give up a huge touchdown. Playing in position this week is a key because they are facing a good group of wide receivers and a very talented QB.

Impact Players:

Ball St.: QB Keith Wenning

Wenning is what I would consider to be the best the QB that the Mean Green have faced in the past two years. He is a great game manager, but has the ability to make plays. He is a very patient QB who is not going to make the type of mistake to cost his team the game. I think UNT is going to have a tough time trying to slow Wenning and his talented WR crew down. He is going to get his yards, but UNT needs to limit the big plays and force field goals.

STAT PREDICTION: 27-41 325 yards 4 TD’s 1 int

North Texas: Offensive Line

This week I think the pressure is on the O-Line, I don’t think they have quite lived up to the hype this year. If UNT wants to win this game it will need the big fellas up front to do some damage. Let’s face it UNT is at its best when these guys are mashing up defensive linemen and opening up holes. This week they have the upper hand and I look for them to come out pissed and ready get after someone.

STAT PREDICTION: 230 yards rushing 3 TD’s 1 sack

Game Prediction:

Okay I admit I had the green goggles on last week. I really thought UNT had grown up enough to go on the road and come away with a win. I was wrong. So for this week I’m taking a step back removing all my green and looking at this game subjectively.

To me this game comes down to this; can UNT out score Ball St? I know very Bill Belichick of me to say that. Let me explain that in more detail. I just don’t think UNT can hang with the Ball St. offense. It’s one thing if UNT was a better team at executing or converting third downs, but they just aren’t. Against a really good offense you have to be able to score points and while the Ball St defense isn’t great UNT just doesn’t have the offense. I have to see it first before I trust this team. The defense can only do so much for you in a game. Last week they gave the UNT offense every opportunity to turn the tide, but they just couldn’t quite get over the hump. That alone has me leaning towards Ball St this week. They are better on offense than Ohio. They are going to put more pressure on the UNT defense, so it’s up to the offense to step its game up. I just don’t see it right now. Too many questions for the UNT offense.

Right now I’m in the show me stage of the season. Okay, you gave me some hope in week one, but brought me back down in week two. Now go out and show me that we as Mean Green fans can trust you again. That’s why this week I’m going with Ball St. I hope I’m wrong and that the magic of Apogee helps the Mean Green pull off the upset.

Ball St. 34 – UNT 27

Go Mean Green!

Read More: http://tmgbr.com/2013/09/13/the-break-down-2/

"Inside the Film Room" segement a little different this week. Instead we give you a look at some Ball St. trends on offense. We also have the

Projected Starters Listed, Positional Advantages, & Game Play Advantages added. Check it out. I appreciate the feedback

This post has been promoted to an article

UNT Mean Green · September 13, 2013

Whoever does these reports does an outstanding job and clearly devotes a lot of time to studying the opponents. Excellent, honest breakdowns. Nice work!

NT91 · September 13, 2013

1-2 after 3

Mean_Green09 · September 13, 2013

Whoever does these reports does an outstanding job and clearly devotes a lot of time to studying the opponents. Excellent, honest breakdowns. Nice work!

I appreciate the positive feedback. I do spend quite a bit of time studying our opponents. I do wish I could do more. If there is something y'all want to see or read let me know and I will try to make it happen.

TIgreen01 · September 13, 2013

I haven't seen Ball St. at all with Wenning at QB. To hear him called the best QB we've played in the past 2 years.....well, that just scares the crap out of me. We've been torched by the good QBs for the past few years. Really wish we had Quentin Brown for this game. Anyone know how his rehab is progressing?

Greendylan · September 13, 2013

I absolutely agree with the statement that UNT simply does not currently have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Ball State's scoring. So, maybe this would be a good week to unveil a QB rotation that will expand the playbook and keep their defense guessing the whole game. I mean, we have to try something new, right? If we try our standard old run up the middle for no gain, run again up the middle for one or two yards, then attempt a predictable pass on third and long in a four wide receiver set system, then we will be blown out. We are going to need to score a LOT of points to stay in the game. Want to know how many they will score against us? Review the Houston games of the last two years, and I can almost guarantee that we will see a shockingly similar point total. The question is this: Will our offense, as presently constructed, score the 40-45 points (at a minimum) necessary to even have a chance? If the answer is no, then we REALLY better throw some wrinkles in our game plan.

UNT Mean Green · September 13, 2013

I appreciate the positive feedback. I do spend quite a bit of time studying our opponents. I do wish I could do more. If there is something y'all want to see or read let me know and I will try to make it happen.

You do a great job. Loved the formation breakdown last week against Ohio. I would be curious to see after this week; our tendencies and % run to pass by down and distance.

Lets hope we can contain Ball State enough to squeak out a victory

LongJim · September 13, 2013

I haven't seen Ball St. at all with Wenning at QB. To hear him called the best QB we've played in the past 2 years.....well, that just scares the crap out of me.

Case Keenum and Collin Klein say hello.

greenminer · September 13, 2013

First one to 40 wins.

Mean_Green09 · September 13, 2013

Case Keenum and Collin Klein say hello.

To defend myself. Collin Klein was not a great QB. The way Kansas St used him was more so as a runner. That running game helped him greatly against us. Our safeties were forced to play in the box allowing throws over the top. Klein isn't playing football in the NFL so you know. Case Keenum is about the same level as this guy only Keenum was surrounded by much better talent at the skill positions. He was also a little under sized.

Rob Calhoun · September 13, 2013

Ball state fan here, This should be a fun game and whoever did this break down did a great job. This game scares me, our defense has been the only thing holding us back. We won a lot of shoot outs last year and even though our D looks better we have not played anyone yet. So I think we can expect a lot of points. Please don't take this as a knock on your D but I will be really surprised if BSU is held under 35-40 points. That just seems to be the norm for BSU over the last couple years. Heres to a good clean injury free game..

Heres a random fact to throw around while tailgating

Ball State is one of only 5 teams in the country to have a player on all 5 national watch lists. Obrien, Mackey,walker biletnekof and Maxwell

The others schools are Oregon, Louisville, Georgia, Miami(FL) and Alabama

LongJim · September 13, 2013

To defend myself. Collin Klein was not a great QB. The way Kansas St used him was more so as a runner. That running game helped him greatly against us. Our safeties were forced to play in the box allowing throws over the top. Klein isn't playing football in the NFL so you know. Case Keenum is about the same level as this guy only Keenum was surrounded by much better talent at the skill positions. He was also a little under sized.

Aww, I think you did a fine job with the breakdown. I'm not convinced that Losing is better than Keenum, though. He'll have to show me a little more.

North Texas Shep · September 13, 2013

"The Mean Green are quite predictable when it comes to their offense"... You can say that again. Hopefully this changes.

Mean Green 93-98 · September 13, 2013

Ball state fan here, This should be a fun game and whoever did this break down did a great job. This game scares me, our defense has been the only thing holding us back. We won a lot of shoot outs last year and even though our D looks better we have not played anyone yet. So I think we can expect a lot of points. Please don't take this as a knock on your D but I will be really surprised if BSU is held under 35-40 points. That just seems to be the norm for BSU over the last couple years. Heres to a good clean injury free game..

~~Heres a random fact to throw around while tailgating~~

~~Ball State is one of only 5 teams in the country to have a player on all 5 national watch lists. Obrien, Mackey,walker biletnekof and Maxwell~~

~~The others schools are Oregon, Louisville, Georgia, Miami(FL) and Alabama~~

Welcome to the board--but is there a reason why you ~~crossed out~~ every word in your post?

Rob Calhoun · September 13, 2013

Im not sure what happened there. I thought it was something weird you Texans did since it was my first post lol

Mean Green 93-98 · September 13, 2013

Im not sure what happened there. I thought it was something weird you Texans did since it was my first post lol

Oh no, my friend. The initiation is yet to come.

Seriously though, I'm glad you're here and hope more of y'all come by. I enjoyed myself at our game in Muncie a few years ago.

Rob Calhoun · September 13, 2013

Ah man bad memories, That was the game when most of us began to realize we had made a terrible mistake promoting Stan Parrish to HC after Brady Hoke left. We were coming off our best season ever and you came in and punched us in the mouth. Things just got worse from that game on, I don't think too many will stop by here I am sure they are reading but I doubt they will post anything. We pretty much just like to argue amongst ourselves lol

UNT90 · September 13, 2013

Ball state fan here, This should be a fun game and whoever did this break down did a great job. This game scares me, our defense has been the only thing holding us back. We won a lot of shoot outs last year and even though our D looks better we have not played anyone yet. So I think we can expect a lot of points. Please don't take this as a knock on your D but I will be really surprised if BSU is held under 35-40 points. That just seems to be the norm for BSU over the last couple years. Heres to a good clean injury free game..

Heres a random fact to throw around while tailgating
Ball State is one of only 5 teams in the country to have a player on all 5 national watch lists. Obrien, Mackey,walker biletnekof and Maxwell
The others schools are Oregon, Louisville, Georgia, Miami(FL) and Alabama

No worries against our offense. The game plan is simple. 9 in the box on 1st down. We refuse to throw on 1st down. We literally did not throw a 1st down pass until midway second quarter last game. We are as vanilla as vanilla can be. Do that, and you hold us to right around 20 points.

Rob Calhoun · September 13, 2013

Well BSU is going to throw and throw and throw..It does not look like our 1 RB is going to play and our O line is breaking in 3 new starters so expect lots of passes.

UNT90 · September 13, 2013

Well BSU is going to throw and throw and throw..It does not look like our 1 RB is going to play and our O line is breaking in 3 new starters so expect lots of passes.

Just throw the ball deep on the 1st play of the game. Our coaching staff doesn't know that this play exists.

Seriously.

Edited September 13, 2013 by UNT90

JRock · September 13, 2013

I think we see the Mean Green lighting a fire and surprising a lot of us. Finding a nice groove. We can beat them.

meanrob · September 14, 2013

"Can we outscore Ball State?"

This is it right here. Because of our style of play and improving defense I have a hard time believing BSU gets to 40 points. But it wouldn't shock me if they got 30+. So we better get to 30++.

A defensive or special teams TD for the guys in green would be nice.

NT03 · September 14, 2013

Heres a random fact to throw around while tailgating
Ball State is one of only 5 teams in the country to have a player on all 5 national watch lists. Obrien, Mackey,walker biletnekof and Maxwell
The others schools are Oregon, Louisville, Georgia, Miami(FL) and Alabama

Not to nitpick here , but Ball State is 1 of 7 schools with players on those list , including Lombardi. Ohio State being the other

Needless to say , Very impressive