Remaining UNT 2013 schedule

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 9, 2013

Everyone other than the first down pass/run counters can see that the season looks to be shaping up better than expected. We have improved, and the C-USA looks as bad or worse than last season's Sun Belt.

9/14: BALL STATE, 2-0, wins versus FCS Illinois State and Army. 50-50

9/21 @ Georgia, 1-1, lost to Clemson, beat S. Carolina. Obviously, this would be a miracle win.
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Tulane, 1-1, beat FCS Jackson State, lost to Sun Belt start-from-scratch South Alabama. This is highly winnable.
10/12: MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 1-1, beat FCS Western Carolina, lost to North Carolina. This, sadly, is our rival that followed us out of the Belt to prop up the sinking C-USA It's a 50-50.
10/19: @ Louisiana Tech, 1-1, lost to NC State, beat FCS Lamar...and struggled with them. Didn't put game out of reach until 1:51 left in the game. This against a SOUTHLAND start-from-scratch. This is a 50-50.
10/26: @ Southern Miss, 0-2, lost to FCS Texas State, crushed by Nebraska. This is highly winnable.
10/31: RICE, 0-1, lost to Texas A&M, but put up a fight. This is the C-USA West frontrunner by far. This one, even at home will be tough to win coming on a short week that follows back-to-back road games. It will be really impressive if we can get this one.
11/9: UTEP, 0-1, lost in overtime to an equally bad New Mexico squad. New coach, QB, and all. Extra rest days following the week day Halloween game. This is a winnable game.
11/16: BYE
11/23: UTSA, 1-1, beat New Mexico, thrashed by Oklahoma State. Love Larry Coker. He's got the best of the start-from-scratch programs. Still, we will have played only one game in 23 days when kicks off due to the week day Halloween game and the Bye following UTEP. We should be healed up and ready to go. Roadrunners will also be coming in from a BYE week. This is winnable.
11/30: @ Tulsa, 1-1, lost to Bowling Green, make a fourth quarter comeback win versus horrible Colorado State at home. TU is in shambles on defense. Hard to believe, but this is going to be a highly winnable game at the rate the Hurricane are going so far.

The only two games remaining that you can look at and say, "Man, we don't have a good chance" are Georgia and Rice. Three of our fellow C-USAers have only beaten FCS schools, and another lost to and FCS. Tulsa is bleeding on their way out the door.

Ranking the toughest games remaining:

(1) Georgia
(2) Rice
(3) Ball State

(4) Middle Tennessee
(5) Louisiana Tech
(6) UTSA
(7) UTEP

(8) Tulsa

(9) Southern Miss

(10) Tulane

The X factor is going to be whether we can win on the road. After Ball State, four of the next five are on the road. The three versus C-USA schools Tulane, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss are winnable games.

If there is a time to take the bull by the horns, it will be during that stretch. I'm putting my opinion of the season on the Tulane game. If we can't beat Tulane, we're going to have problems beating anyone. They are terrible, and will be terrible until they hire a real head coach.

UNT Mean Green · September 9, 2013

Excellent breakdown TFLF. Count UGA as a loss, Rice as a loss, split the 50-50 games, and win the ones that you're supposed to and you're looking at a nice season. 8-4 or 7-5.

Rudy · September 9, 2013

I agree with this breakdown. We are improved overall, so I think it will boil down to how well our coaches make adjustments and how the team handles the mental side of the game.

Stan R · September 9, 2013

I agree with this breakdown. We are improved overall, so I think it will boil down to how well our coaches make adjustments and how the team handles the mental side of the game.

Agree that we have improved due to an overall depth and talent uptick but here's the problem I see with this team.

It is fragile. Don't mean mentally. More like just based on our style of play and no allowance for mistakes that are bound to happen. We have to play so perfectly during these games that one mistake can send this team spiraling and can cause a loss in a game with razor thin margins of victory.

To make matters worse - we don't have the defensive line to support this type of play the way that Dickey teams used to do. They aren't dominating up front (although improved from last year) in order to shut teams down and force punt after punt. We are forced to grind out every game and not do ANYTHING wrong or else we risk demoralizing the team after a grind it out type of loss.

Look at it this way. Does anyone trust this team in a 2 minute drill under any circumstances? I don't. Not in the slightest. It was sad that in my mind when we were down by 6 points with almost a minute and a half I put our chances for victory with a full field ahead of us at 5%. That's it. 5%.

Don't you think that the team is frustrated by that? Don't you think deep down based on established play calling the team knew this to be true as well? We have got to figure out how we are going to run a 2 minute offense. Critical part of our game that seems to be missing.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 9, 2013

My only worry about this season now, having seen two games, is the depth on the defensive line. We just don't have the numbers there, and many of the bodies are "small" for FBS football. I fear they'll get nicked up and worn down. But, we do have the two Byes and one stretch in November where we only play one game in three weeks, so maybe that will help.

Before the season, I was worried about WR and DL. Very proud, though, of the way other receivers stepped up when Ohio took Chancellor out of the game. That was a very positive sign.

I admit, though, that I am surprised by the demise of Zach Olen. This is a worry. You need to be able to get three in close games. We do not appear to have a reliable kicker two games in...and, that's worrisome.

GrandGreen · September 9, 2013

Rice is certainly beatable at Apogee. There is only the Georgia game that is completely out of reach. If NT was to play all the other teams next week; they would be underdogs to Tulsa, Rice, MTSU, and I guess Ball State La Tech would be a toss up and NT would be favored in the rest.

Edited September 9, 2013 by GrandGreen

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 9, 2013

The most realistic way to 7-5 is:

Split Ball State/Georgia

Split Tulane/MT

Split La Tech/Southern Miss

At that point, we're 4-4, with only Rice as a possible "sure" loss with 3 of the last four at home, and the huge break in time between Halloween and UTSA where we only play one game in 23 days. With UTEP, UTSA, and Tulsa's defense in shambles, six or seven wins doesn't look out of reach any longer.

A win versus Ball State will be tough. It makes a pretty easy road even easier...if the players, you know, keep doing what they've shown they can do in the first two weeks.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 9, 2013

I wouldn't worry about Tulsa. Not only is their defense screwed up, but they lost their best receiver for the year over the weekend with a broken leg. When it rains, it pours. We all know the feeling here. This year, Tulsa is getting a taste of bad luck:

http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/TU_loses_WR_Garrett_for_season/20130908_94_0_Frteti941093
http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/Salazars_last_second_field_goal_lifts_Tulsa_past_Colorado/20130907_231_0_Tlafcs439074

houstonmeangreen · September 9, 2013

Everyone other than the first down pass/run counters can see that the season looks to be shaping up better than expected. We have improved, and the C-USA looks as bad or worse than last season's Sun Belt.

9/14: BALL STATE, 2-0, wins versus FCS Illinois State and Army. 50-50

9/21 @ Georgia, 1-1, lost to Clemson, beat S. Carolina. Obviously, this would be a miracle win.
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Tulane, 1-1, beat FCS Jackson State, lost to Sun Belt start-from-scratch South Alabama. This is highly winnable.
10/12: MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 1-1, beat FCS Western Carolina, lost to North Carolina. This, sadly, is our rival that followed us out of the Belt to prop up the sinking C-USA It's a 50-50.
10/19: @ Louisiana Tech, 1-1, lost to NC State, beat FCS Lamar...and struggled with them. Didn't put game out of reach until 1:51 left in the game. This against a SOUTHLAND start-from-scratch. This is a 50-50.
10/26: @ Southern Miss, 0-2, lost to FCS Texas State, crushed by Nebraska. This is highly winnable.
10/31: RICE, 0-1, lost to Texas A&M, but put up a fight. This is the C-USA West frontrunner by far. This one, even at home will be tough to win coming on a short week that follows back-to-back road games. It will be really impressive if we can get this one.
11/9: UTEP, 0-1, lost in overtime to an equally bad New Mexico squad. New coach, QB, and all. Extra rest days following the week day Halloween game. This is a winnable game.
11/16: BYE
11/23: UTSA, 1-1, beat New Mexico, thrashed by Oklahoma State. Love Larry Coker. He's got the best of the start-from-scratch programs. Still, we will have played only one game in 23 days when kicks off due to the week day Halloween game and the Bye following UTEP. We should be healed up and ready to go. Roadrunners will also be coming in from a BYE week. This is winnable.
11/30: @ Tulsa, 1-1, lost to Bowling Green, make a fourth quarter comeback win versus horrible Colorado State at home. TU is in shambles on defense. Hard to believe, but this is going to be a highly winnable game at the rate the Hurricane are going so far.
The only two games remaining that you can look at and say, "Man, we don't have a good chance" are Georgia and Rice. Three of our fellow C-USAers have only beaten FCS schools, and another lost to and FCS. Tulsa is bleeding on their way out the door.
Ranking the toughest games remaining:

(1) Georgia
(2) Rice
(3) Ball State

(4) Middle Tennessee
(5) Louisiana Tech
(6) UTSA
(7) UTEP

(8) Tulsa

(9) Southern Miss

(10) Tulane
The X factor is going to be whether we can win on the road. After Ball State, four of the next five are on the road. The three versus C-USA schools Tulane, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss are winnable games.
If there is a time to take the bull by the horns, it will be during that stretch. I'm putting my opinion of the season on the Tulane game. If we can't beat Tulane, we're going to have problems beating anyone. They are terrible, and will be terrible until they hire a real head coach.

good analysis of the games, be sure and factor in the usual "spotting of the opponent" 7 pt during the first 30 secs of play.

bleedgreen4ever · September 9, 2013

I'm sorry, but the Rice game shouldn't be even close to being considered a "sure loss." If anything, it should be at the level of the Ball State game this weekend: slight underdogs but with a decent chance of an upset at home.

Edited September 9, 2013 by bleedgreen4ever

BillySee58 · September 9, 2013

Good breakdown. Although the UTEP game is looking more than just a little winnable IMO.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 16, 2013

Countdown to bowl eligibility at this point!

9/14: BALL STATE, 2-0, wins versus FCS Illinois State and Army. 50-50 WIN

9/21 @ Georgia, 1-1, lost to Clemson, beat S. Carolina- both Top 10 teams at the time. Had BYE last week. This will still take a miracle game to win.
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Tulane, 2-1, beat FCS Jackson State, lost to Sun Belt start-from-scratch South Alabama, beat La. Tech despite gaining less than 3 yards per carry on 44 attempts, allowing 5 sacks, and losing the trunover battle 3-1. Still very winnable.
10/12: MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 2-1, beat FCS Western Carolina, lost to North Carolina, squeaked by Memphis. Will be tough simply because of history. There are no secrets to what they do.
10/19: @ Louisiana Tech, 1-2, lost to NC State, beat FCS Lamar...and struggled with them; didn't put game out of reach until 1:51 left in the game. This against a SOUTHLAND start-from-scratch, lost to a bad Tulane squad...highly winnable.
10/26: @ Southern Miss, 0-3, lost to FCS Texas State, crushed by Nebraska. lost to Arkansas. Total points scored in three games so far = 31. This is highly winnable.
10/31: RICE, 1-1, lost to Texas A&M, but put up a fight, struggled at home versus Kansas, a Big 12 school, but a really bad one. Still the C-USA West frontrunner, but can be defensed. This one, even at home will be tough to win coming on a short week that follows back-to-back road games. It will be really impressive if we can get this one.
11/9: UTEP, 1-1, lost in overtime to an equally bad New Mexico squad, beat a horrible New Mexico State squad New coach, QB, and all. Extra rest days following the week day Halloween game. This is a winnable game. Upgrade this to highly winnable. Didn't put awful NMSU away until fourth quarter.
11/16: BYE.
11/23: UTSA, 1-2, beat New Mexico, thrashed by Oklahoma State. lost to Arizona. Love Larry Coker. He's got the best of the start-from-scratch programs. Still, we will have played only one game in 23 days when kicks off due to the week day Halloween game and the Bye following UTEP. We should be healed up and ready to go. Roadrunners will also be coming in from a BYE week. This is winnable.
11/30: @ Tulsa, 1-2, lost to Bowling Green, make a fourth quarter comeback win versus horrible Colorado State at home, thrashed by an OU squad that will playing without its best defender and starting halfback...and starting a new QB. It didn't matter. OU could have played their 2nd team and still thrashed this TU squad. TU is in shambles on defense. Hard to believe, but this is going to be a highly winnable game at the rate the Hurricane are going so far.

Okay, fellas...we've 2-1. Nine to go, and all but Georgia are winnable. And, most of those look very winnable. C-USA West is very weak. But, who cares? We haven't been to a bowl game in so long, I could care less that the competition in poor. Other schools get scheduling breaks; it's about time we had a season where we catch schools in bad years.

Also, on a similar note, kudos to the AD for scheduling winnable out of conference games. Idaho, Ohio, and Ball State...that's a good enough slate for a school like ours. I'd even go so far as to say that some day we drop the "money" game (Georgia, OU, Texas and the like) and make people come here. We've got work to do before that will happen. But, I'd set it as a goal once we begin to win with consistency.

MeanGreenTexan · September 16, 2013

Sorry Lonnie, I know you are down on Tulsa, but as long as Watts is back there, they're dangerous.

What the Mean Green have to hope for is that Tulsa is out of the bowl picture by that last game. Tulsa needs to get kicked around by everyone. If that happens, their will is going to be sapped and we can win up there. If they have bowl eligibility or seeding to play for, I'm still predicting an 'L' up there.

Rank by difficulty of remaining games:

(1) Georgia - gotta pay bills, right?
(2) Rice - Win this game, and I'll be on cloud 9.
(3) Middle Tennessee - This is going to be a great game. So glad it's at home.

(4) Tulsa - Gotta root for them to lose and lose often so they aren't playing as hard when we get up there.
(5) UTSA - I must admit, they're looking better than expected. Good news is, they should have a conference win or two before coming in here, so if Hell freezes over, we still wont be their first conference win.
(6) Tulane - The final score of this game will set the tone for the rest of the year. Win big, and I'll be getting bowl trip options lined up.
(7/8) Southern Miss/UTEP - Both of these are looking winnable.

(9) LA Tech - This game is looking VERY winnable. This team looks totally lost.

ColoradoEagle · September 16, 2013

Regardless of how they've looked, I still rank Tulsa as our most difficult opponent after Georgia. We're 0 for our last 10 against them. The last time we beat them, Nixon was in office.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 16, 2013

Tulsa will be out of the bowl picture before October ends. You are fearing the ghost of Tulsa's past. The present Tulsa is to be no more feared than the present Louisiana Tech. Both are awful this season.

MeanGreenTexan · September 16, 2013

Tulsa will be out of the bowl picture before October ends. You are fearing the ghost of Tulsa's past. The present Tulsa is to be no more feared than the present Louisiana Tech. Both are awful this season.

Yes, but that ghost still has Trey Watts lining up in the backfield. Think about UNT being dangerous with Lance Dunbar at RB. No one feared us, because we were terrible. But Lance still killed some teams.

ColoradoEagle · September 16, 2013

Tulsa will be out of the bowl picture before October ends. You are fearing the ghost of Tulsa's past. The present Tulsa is to be no more feared than the present Louisiana Tech. Both are awful this season.

True, but it's still Tulsa and it's still at their stadium. Rice looks to be right about our level, but at least that game is at Apogee.

meangreendork · September 16, 2013

I think every game remaining is winnable short of Georgia.

And hell, if Georgia falls victim to turnovers and clock control offense, there might be a glimmer of victory there, too. More realistically, Georgia's got a powerful offense, so even if our offense can put points on the board in buckets, the Georgia offense is nothing to scoff at. I want our guys to win, but I'm pretty sure they won't.

Rice is a 50/50 shot and I'll call it like Ball State - a slugfest or a blowout. Rice looks very strong this season, and if our team plays their slow-start gameplan from Idaho and Ball State, that game could get ugly fast. I think the Rice game really depends on those first 15 minutes of gameplay.

greenminer · September 16, 2013

guyguysguys, Fake is a Tulsa grad. Let that sink in as he continues to rag on their football.

The Fake Lonnie Finch · September 23, 2013

9/14: BALL STATE, 2-0, wins versus FCS Illinois State and Army. 50-50 WIN

9/21 @ Georgia, 1-1, lost to Clemson, beat S. Carolina- both Top 10 teams at the time. Had BYE last week. This will still take a miracle game to win. Loss
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Tulane, 2-2, beat FCS Jackson State and La Tech, lost to Sun Belt start-from-scratch South Alabama and thrashed by Syracuse. Highly winnable.

10/12: MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 3-1, beat FCS Western Carolina, Memphis, and a bad FAU squad in overtime; lost to North Carolina. Will likely lose this Friday at BYU and the following weekend against East Carolina. No matter. This is a 50-50 game against a former Sun Belt rival.
10/19: @ Louisiana Tech, 1-3, lost to NC State and bad Tulane and Kansas squads; has beaten only FCS Lamar. Has scored more than 15 only against Lamar. Very highly winnable
10/26: @ Southern Miss, 0-3, lost to FCS Texas State, crushed by Nebraska, lost to what is looking like a very average Arkansas. Will be crushed by Boise State this weekend. Highly winnable.
10/31: RICE, 1-2, lost to Texas A&M and Houston; barely won at home versus terrible Kansas, a Big 12 school. This one looks more winnable by the week. Downside for us will still be playing a short week and after back-to-back road trips. Rice will be entering the game after back-to-back games with New Mexico State and UTEP. Calling this a 50-50.
11/9: UTEP, 1-2, has beaten only awful, neighboring New Mexico State; they've lost to New Mexico and UTSA. UTSA took it to them pretty good at home. This does not look like a good football team right now. Highly winnable
11/16: BYE.
11/23: UTSA, 2-2, beat New Mexico and UTEP; thrashed by Oklahoma State. lost to Arizona. This is a winnable game; but, looking like one that we cannot fall asleep on.
11/30: @ Tulsa, 1-2, lost to Bowling Green, make a fourth quarter comeback win versus horrible Colorado State at home, thrashed by OU. Many people here still fear the Golden Hurricane. But, this is not a good team. The defense, due to injuries, academic failures, and graduations, has only one starter from last year's squad. On the offensive side of the ball, they've lost their top returning receiver for the year. Trey Watts is their only consistent threat. Despite what many here believe, this is highly winnable: http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/TU_offense_struggling_despite_experience/20130916_94_B1_CUTLIN891429

Rice, Middle Tennesee...and UTSA (?)...are going to be our toughest remaining games. That's not to say every game won't be tough in some way. But. if Derek Thompson keeps playing error-free football and the defense keeps up it's ball-hawking, swarming style, we're in for a seven to eight win bowl season.

Edited September 23, 2013 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

MeanGreenTexan · September 23, 2013

9/14: BALL STATE, 2-0, wins versus FCS Illinois State and Army. 50-50 WIN

9/21 @ Georgia, 1-1, lost to Clemson, beat S. Carolina- both Top 10 teams at the time. Had BYE last week. This will still take a miracle game to win. Loss
9/28: BYE
10/5: @ Tulane, 2-2, beat FCS Jackson State and La Tech, lost to Sun Belt start-from-scratch South Alabama and thrashed by Syracuse. Highly winnable.

10/12: MIDDLE TENNESSEE, 3-1, beat FCS Western Carolina, Memphis, and a bad FAU squad in overtime; lost to North Carolina. Will likely lose this Friday at BYU and the following weekend against East Carolina. No matter. This is a 50-50 game against a former Sun Belt rival.
10/19: @ Louisiana Tech, 1-3, lost to NC State and bad Tulane and Kansas squads; has beaten only FCS Lamar. Has scored more than 15 only against Lamar. Very highly winnable
10/26: @ Southern Miss, 0-3, lost to FCS Texas State, crushed by Nebraska, lost to what is looking like a very average Arkansas. Will be crushed by Boise State this weekend. Highly winnable.
10/31: RICE, 1-2, lost to Texas A&M and Houston; barely won at home versus terrible Kansas, a Big 12 school. This one looks more winnable by the week. Downside for us will still be playing a short week and after back-to-back road trips. Rice will be entering the game after back-to-back games with New Mexico State and UTEP. Calling this a 50-50.
11/9: UTEP, 1-2, has beaten only awful, neighboring New Mexico State; they've lost to New Mexico and UTSA. UTSA took it to them pretty good at home. This does not look like a good football team right now. Highly winnable
11/16: BYE.
11/23: UTSA, 2-2, beat New Mexico and UTEP; thrashed by Oklahoma State. lost to Arizona. This is a winnable game; but, looking like one that we cannot fall asleep on.
11/30: @ Tulsa, 1-2, lost to Bowling Green, make a fourth quarter comeback win versus horrible Colorado State at home, thrashed by OU. Many people here still fear the Golden Hurricane. But, this is not a good team. The defense, due to injuries, academic failures, and graduations, has only one starter from last year's squad. On the offensive side of the ball, they've lost their top returning receiver for the year. Trey Watts is their only consistent threat. Despite what many here believe, this is highly winnable: http://www.tulsaworld.com/article.aspx/TU_offense_struggling_despite_experience/20130916_94_B1_CUTLIN891429

Rice, Middle Tennesee...and UTSA (?)...are going to be our toughest remaining games. That's not to say every game won't be tough in some way. But. if Derek Thompson keeps playing error-free football and the defense keeps up it's ball-hawking, swarming style, we're in for a seven to eight win bowl season.