Will Mac ever throw the ball on first down?

[BillySee58]

Serious question, not a smart-ass rhetorical one.

UNT90 and I have had an argument on here about this and I want to hear what others think.

What were the first-down run vs pass percentages last week against Idaho?

I think they mix it up when they have confidence in the passing game and mainly our qb. The other theory is that no matter who is under center we will predictably run the ball on first down (90's theory).

If the former theory is true then I think we need a new qb regardless of who it is or if it's fair or not. We are improved from a talent and depth perspective, but not good enough to make it to a bowl game while being this predictable, allowing defenses to know exactly what's coming, and just having no faith in our qb.

Edited September 9, 2013 by BillySee58

[GoMeanGreen1999]

Serious question, not a smart-ass rhetorical one.

UNT90 and I have had an argument on here about this and I want to hear what others think.

What were the first-down run vs pass percentages last week against Idaho?

I think they mix it up when they have confidence in the passing game and mainly our qb. The other theory is that no matter who is under center we will predictably run the ball on first down (90's theory).

If the former theory is true then I think we need a new qb regardless of who it is or if it's fair or not. We are improved from a talent and depth perspective, but not good enough to make it to a bowl game while being this predictable, allowing defenses to know exactly what's coming, and just having no faith in our qb.

Do we have a QB on the roster that Mac would trust enough to pass much on 1st downs?

[BillySee58]

Do we have a QB on the roster that Mac would trust enough to pass much on 1st downs?

Million dollar question.

We did against Idaho with DT and DW, we didn't with DT against Ohio. Ball state is going to be a very telling game for many reasons, this one included.

[JesseMartin]

So I guess the question isn't whether we will ever do it, but rather whether we will do it more often? Not that it happened much, but I was surprised the couple of times we did it this weekend. One of the commentators even noted on that short drive that we had pass plays on all 3 downs. So maybe the question should be if we will do it successfully more than once per game? Because, you know, we do it...just rarely and not very well.

[UNT90]

Do we have a QB on the roster that Mac would trust enough to pass much on 1st downs?

What scares me is that I don't think there is a QB that exists that Mac would trust enough, in college or in the NFL, at least against good competition.

Against the worst team in FBS (UTSA would beat them by 2 TDS), we were right around 50% on 1sr down and the offense hummed (again, against the worst defense I have seen in a LONG time).

[PlummMeanGreen]

Why is the eternal and vaunted "pass on first down" such a panacea with so many on this board? I'd be happy with a few more passes on 2'nd down and if you really want to mess with their psyche's, mind-muck em' or whatever just punt the damn football on 3'rd down every once in a green moon to keep em' unsuspecting and downright honest.

GMG!

Edited September 9, 2013 by PlummMeanGreen

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Why is the eternal and vaunted "pass on first down" such a panacea with so many on this board? I'd be happy with a few more passes on 2'nd down and if you really want to mess with their psyche's, mind-muck em' or whatever just punt the damn football on 3'rd down every once in a green moon to keep em' unsuspecting and downright honest.

GMG!

Because they don't understand football. And, when presented evidence that the team that beat had the same type of game plan still refuse to understand:

Run, stop the run, effective, mistake-free special teams.

Also, they hate Derek Thompson, and champion QBs who have never and will never live up to high school hype. These are fans who likely were excited when Todd Dodge was hired.

Saturday, we didn't run well. Ohio did run well. Our special teams were not special in a good sense. Ohio wins by six on two fourth quarter field goals. On to the next game.

[UNT90]

Your understand football circa 1950.

You don't understand the 2013 version.

[foutsrouts]

If they're going to stack the box, I say we throw it every down until they stop their arrogance. At least that'll be more fun to watch one way or another.

[meangreener]

Your understand football circa 1950.

You don't understand the 2013 version.

You understand neither.

[UNT90]

You understand neither.

Ok, Mr. "We will have 28k for the opener".

[meangreener]

Ok, Mr. "We will have 28k for the opener".

Ooooooh burn!

You got me there!

[UNT90]

Ooooooh burn!

You got me there!

I know you are, but what am I?

Seriously...

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Someone tell the last seven national title winners from the SEC that it isn't the 1950s, then.

[UNT90]

Someone tell the last seven national title winners from the SEC that it isn't the 1950s, then.

Ya, cause we roll SEC talent out there every Saturday, bi+ches!!!

[hickoryhouse]

Of course the fact that we couldn't run well means we will be able to pass well automatically, right?

They were averaging 7.9 yards per attempt while we threw the ball only one less time than them and was averaging only 6.7 per attempt. Either way we slice it, running or passing, their defense held our offense down much better than ours did against them.

This is not to say it wasn't a close game and that we had a great chance to win, just merely a statistical observation.

[houstonmeangreen]

Of course the fact that we couldn't run well means we will be able to pass well automatically, right?

They were averaging 7.9 yards per attempt while we threw the ball only one less time than them and was averaging only 6.7 per attempt. Either way we slice it, running or passing, their defense held our offense down much better than ours did against them.

This is not to say it wasn't a close game and that we had a great chance to win, just merely a statistical observation.

well, 6.7 yrds per attempt beats the hell out of 2.7 yrds, if you can't run it then you either pass it or don't score.

[James329]

So many delayed hand-offs out of shotgun. We don't have the speed or the passing threat to make that work. It's not how often we run, it's how we run. Slow handoffs 5 yards behind the line aren't a good idea unless you're burning a blitz or you've been able to throw it all day.

[BillySee58]

What scares me is that I don't think there is a QB that exists that Mac would trust enough, in college or in the NFL, at least against good competition.

Against the worst team in FBS (UTSA would beat them by 2 TDS), we were right around 50% on 1sr down and the offense hummed (again, against the worst defense I have seen in a LONG time).

You think it's because they played a bad team, I think it's because they had faith in DT that game. Yes, they go hand in hand.

They had faith in DT that game, against that defense, so they threw it on first and second down. It wouldn't be any different if we had a stud qb who could perform well against good teams. The question is, do we have a stud qb?

The coaches have no confidence in DT. Like what has been said, this is not the first time we threw a screen on a pivotal third and long situation late in a winnable game. They don't trust him to throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field at all and they would rather not throw it more than 10 yards down the field if possible, and it may be rightfully so after seeing the interceptions.

This is why I'm calling for a new qb. Not because we run too much on first down, not because I think DT is the worst qb ever, but because our coaches don't trust him. The lack of trust combined with his physical limitations (lack of running threat and lack of downfield accuracy mainly due to wobbly passes) make our offense so predictable.

[GTWT]

Nobody take this wrong, please; but I'm damn glad we have actual professional coaches who make personnel decisions & call plays.

[UNT90]

You think it's because they played a bad team, I think it's because they had faith in DT that game. Yes, they go hand in hand.

They had faith in DT that game, against that defense, so they threw it on first and second down. It wouldn't be any different if we had a stud qb who could perform well against good teams. The question is, do we have a stud qb?

The coaches have no confidence in DT. Like what has been said, this is not the first time we threw a screen on a pivotal third and long situation late in a winnable game. They don't trust him to throw the ball more than 15 yards down the field at all and they would rather not throw it more than 10 yards down the field if possible, and it may be rightfully so after seeing the interceptions.

This is why I'm calling for a new qb. Not because we run too much on first down, not because I think DT is the worst qb ever, but because our coaches don't trust him. The lack of trust combined with his physical limitations (lack of running threat and lack of downfield accuracy mainly due to wobbly passes) make our offense so predictable.

Don't blame DT for the coaches having no faith in him. It's hard as hell to QB when you are mainly throwing the ball on second and long or third and long.

It's poor coaching to do what this staff is doing to DT. Don't trust him? Sit him down and play DW.

But Mac doesn't trust him, either.

If Tony Romo was on this team, Mac wouldn't trust him.

We rarely throw the ball downfield. That's why teams load the box. Even when we pass, there are zero conciquences for putting 9 in the box, because the percentage of balls thrown 10 yards in this offense is so terribly low.

Need huge yardage with a minute and a half left? This staff's answer is a screen. That's all you need to know.

I feel really bad for DT. He is a physically limited QB that isn't even allowed to get the most out of his marginal FBS QB talent because his coaching staff refuses to put him in a position to succeed.

And we are headed for another. 4 or 5 win season and a bunch of excuses from the coaching staff and the AD.

[Mean_Green09]

Gotta believe that Mac comes from the school of thought that if you put the ball in the air 3 things can happen and 2 of them are bad.

Personally I could care less what our run to pass ratio is on first down. It doesn't keep their team out of the endzone does it? Last time I checked a game wasn't determined how well a team did on first down. There are much greater forces to worry about than that ratio. I don't think its a trust issue either. We could come out an throw the ball every first down and then be behind the chains. How would that feel? We'd probably have people upset then too. Everybody is an offensive coordinator now a days. The play calling is what it is. Better execution and we win the game. You could have a tremendous balance offense, but if you don't take care of the ball or avoid mental mistakes it doesn't mean jack. My greatest concern at this point is correcting the mental errors and execution. Not something as petty as what our run to pass ratio is on first down. Show me the stat where passing equally as much as you run on first down equals wins and maybe I will agree that we need to do it more. We still have to complete that pass for it to be effective.

[UNT90]

Gotta believe that Mac comes from the school of thought that if you put the ball in the air 3 things can happen and 2 of them are bad.

Personally I could care less what our run to pass ratio is on first down. It doesn't keep their team out of the endzone does it? Last time I checked a game wasn't determined how well a team did on first down. There are much greater forces to worry about than that ratio. I don't think its a trust issue either. We could come out an throw the ball every first down and then be behind the chains. How would that feel? We'd probably have people upset then too. Everybody is an offensive coordinator now a days. The play calling is what it is. Better execution and we win the game. You could have a tremendous balance offense, but if you don't take care of the ball or avoid mental mistakes it doesn't mean jack. My greatest concern at this point is correcting the mental errors and execution. Not something as petty as what our run to pass ratio is on first down. Show me the stat where passing equally as much as you run on first down equals wins and maybe I will agree that we need to do it more. We still have to complete that pass for it to be effective.

Uh... Yes, what our offense does on 1st down does keep the other team out of the end zone.

Defenses get tired when offenses go three and out all the time.

Offenses have a tendency not to make 1st downs when constantly facing 3rd and long.

Need further proof? Go take a look at UNT's third down conversion percentage from the Ohio game.

Jeez...

[UNTLifer]

I don't care if we run or pass on first down except when we are left with second and eight all day like we were against Ohio, and when it is obvious what we are going to do based on our formation. I would just like to see us be unpredictable, run out of passing formations and vice versa to keep the defense off balance. Plus, the zone read where we string it out to the sideline isn't working. We get our big yards on the ground when we run at the defense.

[Mean_Green09]

Uh... Yes, what our offense does on 1st down does keep the other team out of the end zone.

Defenses get tired when offenses go three and out all the time.

Offenses have a tendency not to make 1st downs when constantly facing 3rd and long.

Need further proof? Go take a look at UNT's third down conversion percentage from the Ohio game.

Jeez...

No it doesn't lol. You could punch holes in that logic all day long. The third down conversion had more to do with UNT's failure to execute not because its run to pass ratio. You can be faced with third and long all day just as well if you pass it more on first down. The ratio doesn't play a factor, the execution does.