The Break Down (Ohio vs North Texas)

[Mean_Green09]

Ohio Bobcats vs. North Texas Mean Green

http://tmgbr.com/2013/09/06/the-breakdown-9/

Date: September 7, 2013

Time: 6:00 pm CT

Location: Athens, OH

Line: Ohio -4.5

What They’re Saying:

USA Today: “Ohio should be able to bounce back with the home field advantage working in its favor. The Bobcats were embarrassed last week which means they will come out with a chip on their shoulder. However, another stellar outing by Thompson could keep North Texas in contention. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ohio 35, North Texas 31. Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/game/preview/l.ncaa.org.mfoot-2013-e.39207/

ESPN Pick Center:

TEAMRANKINGS - Ohio 30 – North Texas 27

numberFire - Ohio 32 – North Texas 29

AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview:

Ohio is a solid favorite with a 69% chance to beat North Texas. Beau Blankenship is projected for 112 rushing yards and a 67% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 31% of simulations where North Texas wins, Derek Thompson averages 2.43 TD pass. http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/college-football/9-7-2013/north-texas-eagles-ohio-bobcats-51

Odds Shark:

North Texas Mean Green Trends:

When playing in September are 4-6

When playing on turf are 5-5

After outgaining opponent are 1-9

When playing outside the conference are 3-7

Ohio Bobcats Trends:

When playing in September are 8-2

When playing on turf are 5-5

After being outgained are 6-4

When playing outside the conference are 8-2

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/bobcats-vs-mean-green-betting-preview-september-07-2013

What to Expect When_______________.

UNT has the Ball:

UNT is coming off an offensive explosion. They tore into a weak Idaho team last week. UNT should still be able to find success on offense this week, but not quite the same results. Look for UNT to do many of the same things it did versus Idaho. UNT is going to spread the field with 3 WR and 4 WR sets. The use of the short to intermediate passing game will be in full force. Unlike last year UNT has shown that it has playmakers at the WR position other than star Brelan Chancellor. Guys like Carlos Harris, Darvin Kindsy, Carl Caldwell, Darnell Smith, and Lynrick Pleasant all flashed the ability to make plays after the catch. While Darius Terrell showed his talents to be a guy who can attack the middle of the field. Brelan Chancellor proved that he again is the Mr. Everything for UNT. He was all over the field and will be a big part of the game plan. Expect all the WR’s to get in on the action on Saturday. The new threats in the passing game are a big bonus to the already talented backfield. UNT will employ a committe of RB’s again on Saturday. Expect to see Brandin Byrd, Antoinne Jimmerson, Reggie Pegram, and Rex Rollins all get touches. It’s this running game that gives UNT a chance to pull off a huge win on Saturday. Finally, you will see an improved QB for the Mean Green. Senior Derek Thompson silenced his critics……….at least for one week. He really played well and efficient. UNT will need that same type of effort on Saturday to have a chance. He doesn’t have to put the huge numbers again, but he can’t turn the ball over and he has to be accurate.

Ohio is basically hitting the restart button after week one. They were just over matched versus Louisville. That won’t be the case here. I expect their secondary to have a much better day. Against Louisville they were often confused and out of position. Why? Well they tried to get too cute. Give them credit for thinking they had a game plan to stop Teddy Bridgewater, but it wasn’t even close to being successful. This week is totally different. They will be able to really press the Mean Green WR’s and in turn force them to throw it over the top. The one problem facing Ohio in this match-up of Green will be the Offensive Line. I think you will really see the Defensive Line from Ohio having a tough time getting Mean Green QB Derek Thompson on the ground. Also, I think Ohio will have a tough time stopping the Mean Green ground attack.

Ohio has the Ball:

Ohio is a spread team who has the run first mentality. The zone read and dive play will be very prevalent on Saturday. Ohio wants to establish the run up the middle with the fire plug RB Beau Blankenship. Once he gets established Ohio will branch out into the zone read with a capable runner in QB Tyler Telleton. Now against Louisville Ohio was not able to establish any type of running game and it really made the Bobcat offense in-effective all day. The Offensive Line really struggled to win any battle or even create a stalemate. You could tell that the O-Line play really made Telleton un-easy in the pocket. He rushed a lot of throws and was very in-accurate. You can expect to see that change. Apart from the two cogs of Telleton and Blakenship look for WR’s Donte Foster, Chase Cochran, and Matt Waters to make plays. Each one of those guys flashed some ability to make plays against Louisville. Donte Foster is the prime target of Telleton, Ohio really wants to get him involved. Cochran is a speedy WR whom they are going to get involved in the screen game. He should have plenty of opportunities because North Texas likes play off the ball. Also, don’t think that Blankenship is just a pounder, he has great ability to make plays as a receiver out of the backfield. Ohio tries to get him involved with swing passes out their 4 wide stacked set.

UNT is going to face a much better and dynamic offense on Saturday. The key for the Mean Green will be to stop the running game and force the Bobcats to throw the ball. That will free up that pass rush to make some plays. UNT’s pass rush is the best in C-USA right now, they came away with 5 sacks last week. If UNT is un-able to stop or slow down the running game, it will be a long day. The biggest concern would be the play-action over the top. UNT safeties have a knack for biting on the run read and letting the receiver run right past them. Marcus Trice and Lairamie Lee can ill afford to play out of position in this game. The entire UNT defense will need to play solid disciplined football. Giving up a few big plays is understandable, but it’s more important that they keep those big plays from turning into TD’s.

Impact Players:

Ohio: QB Tyler Tettleton

I’ve said it before already, but Tettleton is not going to play bad again like he did last week. I think he is going to have a solid game and Ohio will need it to win. I think he will be efficient in the passing game and is going to make a few plays with his feet. He is too good a QB for the Mean Green to keep him bottled up.

STAT PREDICTION: 20-30 289 yards 2 TD’s 1 INT. 35 yards rushing

North Texas: WR Brelan Chancellor

UNT would be wise to do everything it can to force feed its best player. Chancellor has that ability to turn a simple play into an amazing play. He almost had a Sports Center Top 10 play last week on his last punt return. Ohio is going to try to take him away, but you can only do so much. UNT will find a way to get him involved.

STAT PREDICTION: 7 rec 110 yards 1 TD, 3 carries 32 yards, 120 return yards

Game Prediction:

This game doesn’t get any bigger for the Mean Green. It’s a chance to really get momentum building. It’s a chance to take a huge step in the right direction. A chance to prove that they can go on the road and win a big game. Coming into the season most UNT fans chalked this game up as a loss, but now not so much. There is a general belief that UNT can not only compete, but can win this one. Why not? It's not a crazy thought. I've gone back and forth over this game since about Tuesday. I'm really torn on who I think will win. I just think that the level of talent and execution will be pretty close. On one hand you can see that Ohio has better starters, but UNT can go deeper. To me this game boils down to a couple of key points. UNT has to stop the run on defense and has to move the chains on offense. Converting 3rd downs and keeping drives alive will allow that depth to be a factor. It will also keep that crowd quite. A crowd that is predicted to be pretty rowdy. If I went with my heart I would pick UNT. If I go with my head I would pick...............

UNT!

The time is now for the Mean Green, no better place to prove to me and all the fans that this is a team to be reckon with in CUSA. Going through all the history and the stats and watching the tape and looking at who is playing the game I came out thinking that UNT is the better team on Saturday. Ohio has one to many issues to overcome and while the crowd and black uniforms will give them a boost of energy I still don't think that they can win this game. This is not your past UNT teams. They are not going to roll into Athens Saturday and play undisciplined football. This is a focused team. Its a team with great senior leadership. That leadership has gotten everyone to buy into the program. Now you add in talent to that and UNT has what it need to win this game and it will win the game!

North Texas 33 – Ohio 28

Go Mean Green!

Read More: http://tmgbr.com/2013/09/06/the-breakdown-9/

New this is week is a segment called "Inside the Film Room. We give you a look at what formations Ohio likes to run. We also have the

Projected Starters Listed, Positional Advantages, & Game Play Advantages added. Check it out.

This post has been promoted to an article

[foutsrouts]

Pretty nice write-up. Me likes last paragraph in particular.

[MeanGreenGlory]

Great write-up.

Now it's time to make the win happen! Go Mean Green!

[LongJim]

Enjoyed it. Green-tinted, for sure, but that's ok!

[Mean Green 93-98]

Thanks for the writeup--you've definitely done your homework. I especially appreciate the analysis by formation.

I hope it all comes together like you predict.

[SilverEagle]

UNT is coming off an offensive explosion. They tore into a weak Idaho team last week.

Let me just comment on this. I didn't view Idaho as particularly weak. They seemed very well coached. The advantage that they had was that we had no film on them, but they had lots of film on us. My big concern all game was that we didn't appear to dominate their DL like we should have. Their QB was very poised and well coached.

It also concerned me that they busted a long running play early in the game. It wasn't a trick play either. It was right off tackle. They wore down, but I don't think they ever gave up. I'll be interested in hearing the results of their next game vs Wyoming. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they won it.

This weeks game has the potential to be pretty low scoring since we both have lots of film on one another.

I'm hoping that we saved a lot of offensive stuff for Ohio. For instance, actually throwing to our TE's?

Edited September 6, 2013 by SilverEagle

[hickoryhouse]

Haven't read a green tinted game preview in what feels like years.... I enjoyed the heck out of that.

[MeanGreenTexan]

Let me just comment on this. I didn't view Idaho as particularly weak. They seemed very well coached. The advantage that they had was that we had no film on them, but they had lots of film on us. My big concern all game was that we didn't appear to dominate their DL like we should have. Their QB was very poised and well coached.

It also concerned me that they busted a long running play early in the game. It wasn't a trick play either. It was right off tackle. They wore down, but I don't think they ever gave up. I'll be interested in hearing the results of their next game vs Wyoming. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they won it.

This weeks game has the potential to be pretty low scoring since we both have lots of film on one another.

I'm hoping that we saved a lot of offensive stuff for Ohio. For instance, actually throwing to our TE's?

Y'all. That Idaho team was bad. Just keep that in mind.

I would be surprised if they come close to beating Wyoming, let alone actually winning the game. Just because UNT looked great against Idaho does not mean we're rolling. Sorry to be a downer.

If UNT loses this game with a respectable score, don't be upset.

[LongJim]

I'll be interested in hearing the results of their next game vs Wyoming. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they won it.

Wow. I think Wyoming will destroy Idaho.

[Cerebus]

I didn't view Idaho as particularly weak. They seemed very well coached.

That was a weak team. They don't have FBS size and speed at many positions. Their JUCO LB corp they brought in seemed slow and confused. Their secondary was the worst in the nation last year, lost some people, and seems worse this year. If they played Texas Southern, our last season opener, I would only give them the edge because their young QB Chalich seems to have something.

Make no mistake, that was the worst defense we will see all year, by a lot.

As far as their coaching staff goes, if Dickey or Dodge had ever called all three time outs in the first quarter and then had a delay of game penalty immediately afterward we would have burned them at the stake.

[PlummMeanGreen]

Idaho was where we were in Coach Mac's first year and probably all of Dodge's tenure.

Don't we need to move on from Idaho since we have 11 more games to play?

GMG!

Edited September 6, 2013 by PlummMeanGreen

[SilverEagle]

That was a weak team. They don't have FBS size and speed at many positions. Their JUCO LB corp they brought in seemed slow and confused. Their secondary was the worst in the nation last year, lost some people, and seems worse this year. If they played Texas Southern, our last season opener, I would only give them the edge because their young QB Chalich seems to have something.

Make no mistake, that was the worst defense we will see all year, by a lot.

As far as their coaching staff goes, if Dickey or Dodge had ever called all three time outs in the first quarter and then had a delay of game penalty immediately afterward we would have burned them at the stake.

I generally don't give bad grades for time management when it's your first game ever with a group of players.

Small and slow? They looked big enough to me. Big enough in fact to stop us a couple of times on 3rd and short situations. Not to mention at least once when we went for it on 4th down. They also stopped us for losses at least twice on running plays. In this area, we better improve a lot by Saturday.

[foutsrouts]

I generally don't give bad grades for time management when it's your first game ever with a group of players.

Small and slow? They looked big enough to me. Big enough in fact to stop us a couple of times on 3rd and short situations. Not to mention at least once when we went for it on 4th down. They also stopped us for losses at least twice on running plays. In this area, we better improve a lot by Saturday.

I agree. We don't yet really know how good/bad Idaho is, and if they hang with what appears to be an unusually good Wyoming team, I'm thinking that we'll have a better gauge. Not that any of that really matters at this point though, since all that matters is winning on Saturday.

[UNTLifer]

Nice article, but I think we win going away. I just don't see their RB getting 100 on us.

[GOMG2013]

Idaho was not a good team, but there is reason to be excited, just looking at it from the way unt played. Especially falling behind, and then giving up the onside kick. They keyed on the run. Especially with jimmerson in there. Last years team and playcalling would have kept running and probably barely won at the end.

This years team just looks better than last years. And it could have been a lot worse than 40-6. Lots of backups played.

[Harry]

They've won 15 of the last 20 at home. That's a tough trend to beat. This would definitely be a game that shifts the mid tier football landscape. Hope we can pull it off. Refs won't help us we will have to earn this. Should be a great game.

[TheColonyEagle]

It's been a long time since I've been THIS excited about a game.

To the point that I'm a little upset I have to wait all day tomorrow.....

[Varsity]

Idaho was a warm-up, the Bobcats will be a real test. If we take Ohio on their home turf, Katy bar the door for the Mean Green in 2013