The Break Down (Idaho vs North Texas)

[Mean_Green09]

North Texas Mean Green vs. Idaho Vandals

http://tmgbr.com/2013/08/30/the-break-down/

Date: August 31, 2013

Time: 6:00 pm CT

Location: Denton, TX

Line: North Texas -15

What They’re Saying:

USA Today: “Youth and inexperience will be the death of the Vandals for the foreseeable future and it doesn’t help that the squad is having to begin the season on the road. However, North Texas is far from a juggernaut which means Idaho still has a fighting chance in this encounter.” North Texas 35 – Idaho 23. Read more here: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/game/preview/l.ncaa.org.mfoot-2013-e.39206/

Idaho Statesman: “This might be the boldest prediction, but I’m putting some faith in Petrino and his offense. The best chances for Idaho wins come at North Texas on Saturday, at Wyoming (Sept. 7), versus Texas State (Nov. 2) and Old Dominion (Nov. 9) in Moscow and at New Mexico State in the season finale on Nov. 30. Redshirt freshman QB Chad Chalich and the offense are going to have to score some points to reach three wins (that’s how many games Idaho won in 2011 and 2012 combined), but Petrino has added speed and pizzazz on that side of the ball. He’s also added some optimism”

Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/08/25/2724673/bold-predictions.html#storylink=cpy

Phil Steele: “The Vandals are 1-12 in road openers (only win in ‘09 at NMSt, avg loss by 27 ppg). These 2 were SBC foes and NT won the last 4 meetings by an avg of 34-18 although theylast met in ‘04. Idaho will play this year as an Independent so new coach Petrino has a tough situation with just 10 ret st’rs and no real shot at a bowl. NT moves up to CUSA and has McCarney’s best team yet with 17 ret st’rs. Idaho on the road LY lost by an avg of 51-12 (-243 ypg) and Idaho kids also have not experienced the type of Aug heat that they will deal with here in Texas.” North Texas 38 – Idaho 17. http://www.philsteele.com/

What to Expect When_______________.

UNT has the Ball:

There is no secret to UNT’s game plan. It’s pretty simple, they want to run the ball and wear down the Vandals. With game temperatures up in the 100’s I would look for the Mean Green to use the ground and pound early and often. The Mean Green are returning 5 or 6 offensive linemen to go along with the talents trio of running backs. Running backs Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson return, but look for transfer Reggie Pegram to make impact. Pegram is most likely going to be the short yardage hammer of the trio. He has a decisive running style, one cut and get up the field. Also the Mean Green will look to try and open things up a bit more with an improved passing game. Senior Brelan Chancellor returns from a shoulder injury that kept him out the last few games of 2012. Look for him as well as fellow WR Carlos Harris (or mini Chancellor) to help QB Derek Thompson make some plays in the passing game. Don’t be surprised to see the freshman Dajon Williams to get some early playing time. UNT may try and get him looks in read option scenarios.

Idaho had trouble stopping anything that moved last year. Just think about the fact that they nearly gave up more points in the first quarter than their offense scored all year! Well most of that defense is gone, and to be honest that maybe the best news. Their primary strength if there is one would be their defense line. They might be able to slow down the Mean Green, but I don’t see them being able to fully stop them. Even if Idaho does some how stop UNT from the running the ball, they still will have trouble defending the pass. Last year Idaho had some serious issues defending the pass. Now UNT wasn’t lighting the world on fire last year with its passing game, but I think it will be improved enough to make some big plays against the Vandal D.

Idaho has the Ball:

Expect the Vandals to line up in 3 wide and 4 wide sets under center. They are going to lean heavily on QB Chad Chalich and the passing game to make this a game. New Head Coach Paul Petrino wants “to score a whole bunch of points, be explosive on offense.” That being said I think the Vandals would be wise not to push things too hard to early. Pushing in this game may only leave their defense on the field for more snaps. I think the Vandals will have some success against UNT early on. Why? Well UNT has no real idea of what Idaho is going to try and do. One would expect them to come out slinging the ball around, but you never know until they start playing. Once adjustments have been made I think UNT will slow down Idaho’s passing game.(http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2011/08/25/ncaa-football-preview-idaho-vandals/#ixzz2dOD42kVB ). I fully expect for Idaho to try and use motions and shifts to create favorable match-ups in the passing game as well as the running game.

To UNT’s advantage they should be able to do a good job defending the pass. The strength of their defense is in the back seven. They have the depth to rotate multiple guys on the field which will be key in the heat. The only issue that maybe of concern is what type of pass rush UNT will be able to generate. DE Chad Polk has rapidly developed in to a pass rushing specialist, look to see him on the field early and often. I also am looking for big things from SR. Aarron Bellazin its his time to shine and he will have plenty of chances to do it on Saturday.

Impact Players:

Idaho: QB Chad Chalich FR (RS)

The redshirt freshman has been impressive in the Vandal fall camp. He snatched up the starting job with strong performances in their scrimmages. He threw for 414 yards in their August 10^th scrimmage. Idaho is going to lean on Chalich and the passing game to make this a game. I would expect for him to make a few plays against UNT. He does have some weapons surrounding him in Lovett (WR) and LaGrone (TE). UNT will need to do a good job in coverage and pressuring the young QB. I wouldn’t want him to get into a rhythm early.

STAT PREDICTION: 20-35, 247 Yards 2 TD’s 2 INT’s

North Texas: RB Brandin Byrd SR

The senior running back is coming off a very productive year where he put up 860 yards and 4 TD’s. He is not the quickest or shiftiest RB that the Mean Green has, but he is the most consistent. He is also the best rounded of the bunch. He can do a little bit of everything. UNT should be able to wear down the Vandal’s in the trenches, so I look for Byrd to have a solid opening game. Byrd should eclipse the 100 yards total and come away with a score or two.

STAT PREDICTION: 21 Carries 116 Yards 1 TD

Game Prediction:

Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville said it best in an ESPN article that I recently read “There’s so much unknown in college football. The first game is a roll of the dice. You just don’t know what you have. It doesn’t matter if you have all 22 starters back. It’s a different team.” That’s pretty much how I view this game. I think I know how UNT will look, but you just never know until Saturday night. This North Texas team is probably the most talented team in recent years. Again though who knows how that talent translates on Saturday. As for Idaho its all speculation on what exactly they will look like. Its always tough to scout a team with a new coach in its first game. I do think Idaho will be improved from last year, but I don’t think they will have improved enough to beat a hungry North Texas team.

I think UNT will start slow by establishing the run game and may even go down by a touchdown or field goal early. As the game wears on the Mean Green will start to really grind on the Vandals. The big ugly’s that UNT has up front on the offensive line will start to open up holes. I think by halftime UNT will have the lead and will begin to pull away in the second half. In the Texas heat that is forecast for Saturday the Vandal’s just don’t stand a chance. I have the Mean Green coming out on top.

North Texas 35 – Idaho 17

Go Mean Green!

Read More: http://tmgbr.com/2013/08/30/the-break-down/

Starters Listed, Positional Advantages, & Game Play Advantages added. Check it out.

This post has been promoted to an article

[trey3white]

I really like the website.

[Green Crazy]

this is what I expect to happen as well.

gmg!

[Mean Green 93-98]

Well put together, and well reasoned. Thanks for posting.

[Got5onIt]

Love the breakdown. Looking forward to future releases.

[LongJim]

Good stuff!!

[PlummMeanGreen]

I notice a few of us picked the magic number of "35" for our Mean Green to score tomorrow night.

Here's hoping DT/#7 lights it up tomorrow night, but if he starts out too slow or is obviously having an off night I hope our coaches won't be

too slow to make a QB change, either.

It is my honest opinion that we need to make a very strong statement about this football program tomorrow night at Apogee because

is is easy to see that the Indians have been or are getting restless. We need to win first of all, but if we win big that would be that

nice statement.

GMG!

[TheFranchise]

For what it's worth, I played the UNT-Idaho game today on NCAA 14. Thompson wasn't very accurate, stuggling to find the right guy. The playcalling was aggressive.

On the ground, Jimmerson seemed to be the most effective back, amassing 108 yards while Pegram put up 43 of his own. Byrd's pound-it-out style was not as effect YPC-wise but he still grabbed 38 yards.

The defense looked fantastic, refusing to yield a TD and the Mean Green cruised to a 21-6 victory.

The fact that Coach Mac wasn't afraid to pass the ball a lot gives me hope . . .

*Random guy off to the side*: "Psst, hey, Steve . . . That was YOU calling the plays, not Coach Mac."

Oh . . . forget everything I just said.

Edited August 30, 2013 by TheFranchise