Follow up thoughts:
I think we are all aware of the many things that go into selection. But many (or most) casuals think too much of W-L record. As in, 25+ wins means you're a near lock for an AL.
Just another one of my 0.02 observations: the committee will have a handful of 25-ish-win mid-majors on the outside looking in (most years), and have to also consider all these 15-to-20-win-ish teams from the majors. This is where Quad 1 opportunities come into play.
It's unfair, because quality midmajors like us sit on a s.t.ru.g.g.l.e.b.u.s. trying to schedule more Q1 opportunities, while those majors get tons of them just by virtue of being in their conference. So, by sheer luck or chance or whatever, they pull off 1 or 2 Q1 wins, and thus get the nod.
It's freakin hard being where we are, and getting over the hump.
My 0.02: we would need to win out, losing only in the AAC Championship game to the Tigers. And even then, our chances are not good. The committee will dwell on our Q1 record.
any additional losses until then would effectively doom us unless we get the auto-bid.
Want to make things even hairier? We lose in the championship game to...someone other than Memphis. Because the Tigers lost in an earlier round.
The committee will almost certainly still give Memphis an at-large, which means we are hoping for a second at-large American bid. OUTLOOK NOT GOOD.
We’re on the outside looking in right now, but there’s still a slim chance of an at large. Need to keep winning..and convincing wins would serve us well. GMG!
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