Will less than 5 wins ruin UNT football for another 5-7+ years?

meangreener · July 18, 2013

I just...it seems to me like this year is our last chance to make a splash or suffer in the catacombs of the NCAA for another 5-7 (possibly 10) years. Our team is turning over this year and will be considerably different next year...likely not better. Fairly worrisome.

Our schedule will attract a lot of people to the stadium...keep them there. Students and alumni will likely show up for big attendance numbers because of conference change and the opponents. Losing isn't going to help.

I think less than five wins puts Mac on a very hot seat going into next year, and I really don't want to start over...I don't think UNT can stand it.

Our recruiting is already terrible, it's only going to get worse if we continue to get NO results...the Apogee factor is already gone.

I feel like this is the make or break year for UNT and personally, I don't see how we won't be considerably better...we were beating up WKU last year, showed a lot of potential versus K-State, easily could've beat Troy...that's 7-5...and we have marked improvement EVERYWHERE across the board with a far weaker schedule. 7-5 should be expected. We haven't regressed anywhere, really...maybe O-line, marginally...

I don't think our fanbase can sustain getting passed up by UTSA and Texas State. Just my opinion, but this year is just really vital.

New conference, new fans, new opponents, and a better team.

I just worry that we could end up stuck in the bottom of a conference everyone wants out of with CUSA or stuck among a bunch of FCS upstarts because we can't produce. Personally, I'm tired of defending UNT football to everyone I know who ridicules me for my devotion.

BillySee58 · July 18, 2013

Yes it's a huge year. I disagree that the schedule is easier. It is a good schedule, but I do think the competition is a tad better.

The biggest thing you hit at is recruiting. You can only be an up and coming team for so long. We have improved under Coach Mac compared to the Dodge era, but we need more than 5 wins this year. 5 or less shows that we are stagnant and not improving. And yes, we have way too many players returning plus all the additions for this team to not be improved.

MeanGreenGlory · July 18, 2013

Yes. We need to win 7 and go to a bowl.

GrayEagle · July 18, 2013

The recruiting has improved under McCarney but only because of the transfers. This year could be the breakthrough. I think that the summer camps are finally getting our name out there to the tune that 34 of the 51 open offers (that I know of) are to 3* athletes. About a dozen of those we have virtually no chance of getting but with at least an equal number we have a very legitimate chance. Some we might not take even if we could because of position overloads. There is still a dearth of defensive tackles. There is still a chance that some hot prospects will emerge over the season. Don't knock this year's recruiting season until it's proven that we are taking the much less desirable recruits.

UNTcrazy727 · July 18, 2013

If McCarney doesn't win 5 games he should be fired the day after the season is over. No excuses.

oldguystudent · July 18, 2013

Prior administration was a public display of incredible ineptitude and inability to coach, make decisions, manage a game, or offer any hope whatsoever of ever, ever competing.

Current administration seems to lack the physical talent to get it done, so appears to hold back the offensive playbook due to limitations on capability of execution.

I'm a little less inclined to drop the "WIN NOW DAMMIT!" axe on the latter. I can see the knowledge is there. I just don't see the horses in the stable.

I'm not savvy enough to know who's in charge of recruiting or what kind of budget limitations truly exist, so I have no idea what the near future holds. I don't expect much in the first season of CUSA play. If we struggled in the Sunbelt last year, and we're taking a step up in competition this year, and we put the same product on the field, I don't see a 5-7 record.

But neither do I see changing coaches more often than most of us change socks as being a good thing for the program. Were I a high school kid, and a saw a bunch of trigger happy alumni chomping at the bit to kick the coach out ever three years, I'd probably not have a very good feeling about joining that program unless my only other options were partial scholarships at NAIA institutions.

So I go to sleep at night dreaming of ribs and beer, expecting little, hoping for more.

UNT90 · July 18, 2013

If McCarney doesn't win 5 games he should be fired the day after the season is over. No excuses.

In a perfect world at a university that cared about athletics, you would be correct.

Sadly...

What I fear more than death itself is that we crater this year in football, winning only 3 games, followed by an upcoming disastrous year in men's basketball, leaving the new president facing the need to replace a football and basketball coach with a combined 5 years left on their contracts.

Of course, replacing the person responsible for those hires isn't even am option with the recent contract extension given by the BOR (unless there is an affordable buy out clause), must be nice to have the least accountability of any AD at the FBS level. If I were RV, I'd never leave.

This is a very, very, very, very important football season, for a lot of different reasons.

Edited July 18, 2013 by UNT90

PlummMeanGreen · July 18, 2013

The recruiting has improved under McCarney but only because of the transfers. This year could be the breakthrough. I think that the summer camps are finally getting our name out there to the tune that 34 of the 51 open offers (that I know of) are to 3* athletes. About a dozen of those we have virtually no chance of getting but with at least an equal number we have a very legitimate chance. Some we might not take even if we could because of position overloads. There is still a dearth of defensive tackles. There is still a chance that some hot prospects will emerge over the season. Don't knock this year's recruiting season until it's proven that we are taking the much less desirable recruits.

Agree with GrayEagle and especially the part that I've highlighted in red.

We don't get Top 75 recruiting classes at UNT and rarely have. Even if we did recruiting services would most likely never report it since they are so hung up on coverage of the Power 5 conferences. UNT's ace in the hole is to keep the NCAA FBS transfers network open but IMHO...to really bear down on JUCO recruiting from now on espeically in the defensive line area.

I know this thread will inspire potential recruits for sure.

I really believe some on this board would have recommended the firing of Fry after his 2'nd season at UNT when his team won 2 games. Southern MIss fired a HFC after an obvious terrible hire followed by his 1 no win season. Some know how and when to pull the trigger...some do not. Who is to say whatever HFC USM would have had at the helm last year would have done any better? Sometimes...a program just bottoms out--plain and simple. The key is to not stay bottomed out.

2-a-days are almost here.....all that needs to be done at this juncture has been done so give it a chance and save the gloom/doom.

Kansas State went almost 50 years of much far worse than what we've ever had at UNT. TCU even had a F.A. "Dry" run (along with a cast of other characters who would be HFC's) for about 2 plus decades when they were the door mat of the Southwest Conference. Seems that TCU program back in the day has been the model for a few other schools of late.

SMU? One more time now...they entered their first CUSA season with almost a 20 football seasons losing streak..

Sure we want to win and we deserve to win, but lets not panic now until we hit a real ice berg and I think we'd all know it when that would happen.

In Coach Mac's 3'rd season coming up with the disaster that he inherited with so few players on scholarship, now is not the time to panic. UNT is just not going to be one of those programs that Lady Luck smiles on in most any coach we hire first year or 2 up there--it's just not in the cards for that to happen with our school. In fact, that hasn't happened since I was a student which by the day is turning into a very long time ago.

GMG!

Edited July 18, 2013 by PlummMeanGreen

glick1980 · July 18, 2013

Most FBS programs are run like a business, unfortunately, ours is not. If a business suffered severe losses over the last decade the CEO would be fired. Here we give them an extension.

JRock · July 18, 2013

Tired of this doom and gloom garbage.

DallasGreen · July 18, 2013

Most CEOs in that position would be given the option of moving the company's location. That is not an option for ours. What can be done is to realize your real market base and appeal to it. Denton County is exploding with growth as well as the easily accessible DFW northern suburbs. Forget the city of Denton and reach out to new areas that may prove receptive. I just heard that a Coaches Caravan to Gainesville drew a larger reception than any of the others announced and vigorously promoted.

MeanGreenTexan · July 18, 2013

Most CEOs in that position would be given the option of moving the company's location. That is not an option for ours. What can be done is to realize your real market base and appeal to it. Denton County is exploding with growth as well as the easily accessible DFW northern suburbs. Forget the city of Denton and reach out to new areas that may prove receptive. I just heard that a Coaches Caravan to Gainesville drew a larger reception than any of the others announced and vigorously promoted.

Wow! If so, that is eye-opening.

I don't think we should abandon Denton and places like the Lake Cities/Lewisville/Argyle/FlowerMound/Little Elm/Frisco, but maybe we need to go to places like Decatur/Gainesville/Sanger/Celina/Justin just as much. If what you're saying is true, we may have better luck bringing in just as many fans from those smaller towns (if not more!).

NorthTexan95 · July 18, 2013

No. Every year is different.

Just look at McCarney's Iowa State teams. The first five years were losing but then they jumped to 9-3 and several years of success. I could see DT starting for the year and us struggling to win 5 games. Then next year Berglund takes over and starts to reach his potential and we jump to 8 or nine wins and things take off.

DallasGreen · July 18, 2013

Wow! If so, that is eye-opening.
I don't think we should abandon Denton and places like the Lake Cities/Lewisville/Argyle/FlowerMound/Little Elm/Frisco, but maybe we need to go to places like Decatur/Gainesville/Sanger/Celina/Justin just as much. If what you're saying is true, we may have better luck bringing in just as many fans from those smaller towns (if not more!).

This info came from our alumni association rep who heads development at NCTCC She attended, and I have no reason to doubt her validity. She was there and said that the mayor of Gainesville (a TT alum) was even wearing green, A member of our UNT Foundation BOD is mayor of Sanger. I have no doubt that we could have similar success there as well among the many growing Denton County suburbs. You may not get the big bucks of DFW, but some solid grass roots fan support is a near certainty.

BillySee58 · July 18, 2013

No. Every year is different.

Just look at McCarney's Iowa State teams. The first five years were losing but then they jumped to 9-3 and several years of success. I could see DT starting for the year and us struggling to win 5 games. Then next year Berglund takes over and starts to reach his potential and we jump to 8 or nine wins and things take off.

If DT is our qb this year and we're struggling to get to a 5 win pace then BB better be our qb after the Tulane game. Basically if we win 5 games this year with a combo of DT and BB then I doubt BB has what it takes to lead us to 8 wins next year. Could happen though.

I know we've gone in so many circles with this conversation that we're all dizzy, but our passing game is what is holding us back. We have 3 third-year starters on the line, 2 experienced running backs and 2 good-looking newcomers, and a receiving corps that has good size and speed. If our qb has anywhere near the time that DT had to throw last year then the production has to improve.

Our defense needs improvement, but we were middle of the pack in points given up. They at least give us a chance in games. They had a few games where we gave up in the 30s for points scored, but Heaven forbid we can't keep up a little in games like that.

GOMG2013 · July 18, 2013

I expect a team that returns 8 starters on offense, and 8 starters on defense to play a lot better than they played the previous year. I have seen other teams projected win total get a bump for returning starters, so why not UNT?

And before people complain about the DTs, if you go to most Non BCS schools, they will have the same issue with DTs. There's not a lot of them to go around. Its also very rare a team's primary reason for losing is placed on the DT position. Not saying it's not important, but if you have a solid secondary or solid linebacking corp, you can put together a nice defense.

If we were bringing back a stud QB, we would be predicted to have at least 7 wins with so man of the other positions returning. Especially a nice O line returning.

I have noticed a common theme with McCarney and his staff and that excuse has to be eliminated this year.

The talent level has been questioned. I get it that a new staff wants a chance to recruit thier type of players for their system and the whole notion that it takes a coach to turn over the old team and way of thinking and bring in a new attitude.

I have to ask, because I really don't know. Was the talent level really that bad? I still expect a coaching staff to coach up some talent, and I find it hard to beleive they didn't have at least something to work with. Is the talent level so bad to where we could never run nickel? Come on! that's hard to beleive. It's been said that the offensive play calling was also hampered by fear. UNT barely tried to set up returns in the special teams.

At some point, you have to at least try. I don't like playing safe and playing not to lose. Players are going to make mistakes. Let them make them and get them over with, so you can move on. Try different people. Do something. Don't sit there and keep losing the same way over and over. Seems like this staff was not motivated to coach the players up and are just waiting for the better players. I find it hard to believe that the talent level was so bad to not even try something different. If it was, then Mac does need more time.

Edited July 18, 2013 by GOMG2013

BillySee58 · July 18, 2013

I expect a team that returns 8 starters on offense, and 8 starters on defense to play a lot better than they played the previous year. I have seen other teams projected win total get a bump for returning starters, so why not UNT?
And before people complain about the DTs, if you go to most Non BCS schools, they will have the same issue with DTs. There's not a lot of them to go around. Its also very rare a team's primary reason for losing is placed on the DT position. Not saying it's not important, but if you have a solid secondary or solid linebacking corp, you can put together a nice defense.
If we were bringing back a stud QB, we would be predicted to have at least 7 wins with so man of the other positions returning. Especially a nice O line returning.
I have noticed a common theme with McCarney and his staff and that excuse has to be eliminated this year.
The talent level has been questioned. I get it that a new staff wants a chance to recruit thier type of players for their system and the whole notion that it takes a coach to turn over the old team and way of thinking and bring in a new attitude.
I have to ask, because I really don't know. Was the talent level really that bad? I still expect a coaching staff to coach up some talent, and I find it hard to beleive they didn't have at least something to work with. Is the talent level so bad to where we could never run nickel? Come on! that's hard to beleive. It's been said that the offensive play calling was also hampered by fear. UNT barely tried to set up returns in the special teams.
At some point, you have to at least try. I don't like playing safe and playing not to lose. Players are going to make mistakes. Let them make them and get them over with, so you can move on. Try different people. Do something. Don't sit there and keep losing the same way over and over. Seems like this staff was not motivated to coach the players up and are just waiting for the better players. I find it hard to believe that the talent level was so bad to not even try something different. If it was, then Mac does need more time.

Great post

NT03 · July 18, 2013

Wow! If so, that is eye-opening.
I don't think we should abandon Denton and places like the Lake Cities/Lewisville/Argyle/FlowerMound/Little Elm/Frisco, but maybe we need to go to places like Decatur/Gainesville/Sanger/Celina/Justin just as much. If what you're saying is true, we may have better luck bringing in just as many fans from those smaller towns (if not more!).

Where is the love for Mexia?

MeanGreen61 · July 18, 2013

Pre-season chatter. Most fan sites are outrageously hopeful about their team and excited about the upcoming season. Another thread of why we or will we fail on gomeangreen.com.

Edited July 18, 2013 by MeanGreen61

Travis Scott · July 18, 2013

I expect a team that returns 8 starters on offense, and 8 starters on defense to play a lot better than they played the previous year. I have seen other teams projected win total get a bump for returning starters, so why not UNT?
And before people complain about the DTs, if you go to most Non BCS schools, they will have the same issue with DTs. There's not a lot of them to go around. Its also very rare a team's primary reason for losing is placed on the DT position. Not saying it's not important, but if you have a solid secondary or solid linebacking corp, you can put together a nice defense.
If we were bringing back a stud QB, we would be predicted to have at least 7 wins with so man of the other positions returning. Especially a nice O line returning.
I have noticed a common theme with McCarney and his staff and that excuse has to be eliminated this year.
The talent level has been questioned. I get it that a new staff wants a chance to recruit thier type of players for their system and the whole notion that it takes a coach to turn over the old team and way of thinking and bring in a new attitude.
I have to ask, because I really don't know. Was the talent level really that bad? I still expect a coaching staff to coach up some talent, and I find it hard to beleive they didn't have at least something to work with. Is the talent level so bad to where we could never run nickel? Come on! that's hard to beleive. It's been said that the offensive play calling was also hampered by fear. UNT barely tried to set up returns in the special teams.
At some point, you have to at least try. I don't like playing safe and playing not to lose. Players are going to make mistakes. Let them make them and get them over with, so you can move on. Try different people. Do something. Don't sit there and keep losing the same way over and over. Seems like this staff was not motivated to coach the players up and are just waiting for the better players. I find it hard to believe that the talent level was so bad to not even try something different. If it was, then Mac does need more time.

I'm no evaluater of talent on the football field, but Mac did say several times that, when he got here, North Texas was the smallest D-1 team he has ever seen in his career. To me, that speaks volumes to what was left here...granted we did have some special players (Dunbar, Attaberry, to name a couple). I can't wait for workouts to start so we can see how this team is shaping up. Aug 31 will be here soon! Go Mean Green

KRAM1 · July 18, 2013

Tired of this doom and gloom garbage.

AMEN!

MeanGreenTexan · July 18, 2013

Where is the love for Mexia?

Do we really want to travel that far south to market to folks?

KRAM1 · July 18, 2013

Pre-season chatter. Most fan sites are outrageously hopeful about their team and excited about the upcoming season. Another thread of why we or will we fail on gomeangreen.com.

You know what "they say"...Only at North Texas! Hey, here's an idea...why don't these folks start a new board and then then can just be negative and "doom and gloom" all the time and everyone on it would agree with them? Oh......what...really?

Let's see who has a sense of humor now! :zoro:

Harry · July 18, 2013

Part of the charm of college football to me is that everyone starts off the season with high hopes and optimism. This season reminds me a lot of 2001 in that we didn't really have high expectations and things just clicked. I could be wrong but as a fan it is certainly more fun to think about good outcomes.

UNT90 · July 18, 2013

Part of the charm of college football to me is that everyone starts off the season with high hopes and optimism. This season reminds me a lot of 2001 in that we didn't really have high expectations and things just clicked. I could be wrong but as a fan it is certainly more fun to think about good outcomes.

Except there is no Booger on this roster.if there was, I would be far more optimistic.

It could be 2001, or it could be 2010. Time will tell.