Draft Profiles, Week 3: Tony Mitchell

[Harry]

I'm eschewing my normal "Strengths, Weaknesses, Outlook" format for this profile. Everything with Mitchell this season was so inter-connected that it's really difficult for me to break things down like that.

To begin, Mitchell's frame and body are strong by NBA standards for a power forward. He's 6'8, 235 pounds with a 7'3" wingspan. Those numbers are pretty comparable to Tristan Thompson. Mitchell also has strong athleticism that scouts look for in the power forward position.

The first thing that must be said about Mitchell's game is that he's really good around the rim, shooting over 80% there each of the past two seasons. I believe he suffered a little bit from no guard on North Texas being able to effectively throw an entry pass to him in the post this season, which began the process of sapping his efficiency. Early in games, he works hard to establish strong post-position, and against the likes of the Sun Belt he is usually successful. He has a really strong lower body that allows him to get a lower center of gravity, which helps him get defensive players pinned down on the block.

One thing that could cause issues down the road is that he doesn't really have any post moves. Normally, Mitchell just ends up going over his backside shoulder and up over weaker Sun Belt opponents. In that regard, he doesn't really show any sort of solid footwork in the post either. But 80% shooting is still 80% shooting, so it might be a circumstance where he's simply good around the rim.

However, he gets disinterested if he's not involved in the game early. His body language can get really harmful from time-to-time. A perfect example of his inconsistency this season came in the two games North Texas played against Troy. In game one, they got Mitchell involved early (going to him on the first possession, allowing him to get fouled and go to the line), allowing him to shoot four times in the first six minutes (his average FGA per game is 9.9). He responded by putting up his best game of the season: 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 blocks on 17 shots. In the second game however, Mitchell took two shots in the first eight minutes, only eight shots for the full game, and ended up with 9 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks.

The problem here is that when Mitchell doesn't get involved in the post early, he tends to float. The biggest cause of his drop in efficiency this season was that he took 12% more threes and 12% fewer shots at the rim this year. By taking more threes, Mitchell saw his three-point shooting regress to what I assume is the mean for him, at about 30%. He doesn't have the best shooting mechanics (particularly with his follow-through and keeping his shooting elbow in), which makes me believe last year's 44% from behind the arc was a fluke. Because of the increase in three-pointers attempted, his true shooting percentage plummeted from 64.5% to 53%. NBA teams will have to iron out his shooting mechanics and get him to stay around the rim more if he's going to be a successful offensive player.

Moving on to the defensive side of the ball, I actually like Mitchell more. His strong lower body helps him keep players out of strong post position. Mitchell also has pretty good instincts as far as blocking shots. He ended up with 2.7 blocks per game this year, which was good enough for first in the Sun Belt and 14th nationally. Sometimes Mitchell does get a little bit disinterested here too, but I think that the possibility exists that he can be an above-average defensive player in the NBA. I should also mention that Mitchell is a really strong rebounder with his strong lower body and long arms. If he is to make a definitive mark on the NBA, it will be in that regard.

Overall, Mitchell is going to be a really polarizing prospect. He has already declared and stated that he's staying in the NBA Draft, so this is it for him. It's probably the right decision, considering he's not a young sophomore (he turns 21 next week) and the situation is less than glamorous at North Texas. Right now, I'd put his draft stock at anywhere from 20-undrafted. It's that volatile. It's all going to depend on interviews and workouts with teams. If he can convince them that it was the situation at North Texas -- not his play -- that led to his demise this season, then he has a chance to go in the first round. Otherwise, he just didn't show a lot worth drafting this season. The tools are there, but the toolbox might not be. He could be anywhere from a Thompson-type player to a Samardo Samuels. I would bet on him being closer to the latter than the former, so I probably wouldn't select him in the first round.

Read more: http://www.fearthesword.com/2013/3/28/4155874/nba-draft-2013-profiles-week-3-kelly-olynyk-tony-mitchell-and-khalif-wyatt

[THOR]

on cbssports.com, the draft guy has him at 38...

who knows what the right decision is, i'm sure it is a tough one. second round isn't guaranteed contract, looking like he will have to earn his way on a team, hope he does...

[Harry]

Interesting observation: I believe he suffered a little bit from no guard on North Texas being able to effectively throw an entry pass to him in the post this season, which began the process of sapping his efficiency.

May explain why Benford is looking at so many guards in recruiting...

[MeanGreenTexan]

Interesting observation: I believe he suffered a little bit from no guard on North Texas being able to effectively throw an entry pass to him in the post this season, which began the process of sapping his efficiency.

May explain why Benford is looking at so many guards in recruiting...

Great! But who would those guards be throwing it to in the post now? Coleman? Nunn? Friar? Unknown JUCO guy?

[Travis Scott]

Interesting observation: I believe he suffered a little bit from no guard on North Texas being able to effectively throw an entry pass to him in the post this season, which began the process of sapping his efficiency.

May explain why Benford is looking at so many guards in recruiting...

agreed. Finding guards who can shoot will hopefully change the outcome for next season for the better.

[glick1980]

Imagine all the positive publicity UNT will get when Mitchell goes undrafted and subsequently to Europe never to be heard from again!

[UNTMike81]

Mr. Mitchell will be heard from again. It maybe a few years at worst. Once Mr. Mitchell becomes an NBA success story the sad truth will be that none of his Millions will ever come back to UNT. I bet Tony's will be making Millions and RV will still have our loser Coach Benford around destroying our Men's basketball program!!!!

[CMJ]

This is why, despite people hoping kids stay in school extra years, they tend to leave. Players can move up in the draft by staying....but they can also fall. No one wants to be one of the unlucky guys who falls, so most tend to come out as soon as they see 1st round.

[Harry]

Mr. Mitchell will be heard from again. It maybe a few years at worst. Once Mr. Mitchell becomes an NBA success story the sad truth will be that none of his Millions will ever come back to UNT. I bet Tony's will be making Millions and RV will still have our loser Coach Benford around destroying our Men's basketball program!!!!

Tony loves UNT and Coach Benford. So you post has no merit other than I agree Tony will do fine in the League.

[MeanGreenTexan]

Imagine all the positive publicity UNT will get when Mitchell goes undrafted and subsequently to Europe never to be heard from again!

Confused. Your profile pick is of Mitchell about to throw down though... This may be a bit?

if not...

[Army of Dad]

Tony loves UNT and Coach Benford. So you post has no merit other than I agree Tony will do fine in the League.

Bold satement considering Benford likely cost Tony million$.

[glick1980]

Confused. Your profile pick is of Mitchell about to throw down though... This may be a bit?

if not...

It isn't a bit. I like Mitchell, he has a ton of potential. I do think he will get drafted on that potential, probably in the 2nd round. I do not think he will ever play any meaningful minutes in an NBA game. To play in the NBA you need be a great shooter or player than can score one-on-one, which he is neither, or be a tenacious defender and rebounder of which he could be except he doesn't hustle and sulks and complains to the refs. So he isn't a guy that can score, and he isn't a hustle guy, so what is he? He is a less talented Brendan Wright that doesn't hustle as much, but can hit an occassional three. I hope he can be the guy that dominated the LeBron Camp, but I am skeptical.

[Green P1]

Bold satement considering Benford likely cost Tony million$.

I'm sure he loves him about as much as Trey, Clarke, and PJ do. Who wouldn't love the guy who coached him to probably the most unsuccessful season of his entire life?

[Andrew]

I'm sure he loves him about as much as Trey, Clarke, and PJ do. Who wouldn't love the guy who coached him to probably the most unsuccessful season of his entire life?

Benford is the reason Mitchel stayed. That in itself kept the team together. That was the big goal. Otherwise just think about how bad our team would have been without CJ, JW, and TJ. If Mitchell is successful It is on Mitchell and if he fails it is on Mitchell. Either way he still respects Benford and this university. Amazing to think that successful people out there are not as shallow as people who are full of negativity huh. I wish Mitchell the best and hope he succeeds but there is no blaming anyone else for his ups and downs.

[THOR]

Benford is the reason Mitchel stayed. That in itself kept the team together. That was the big goal. Otherwise just think about how bad our team would have been without CJ, JW, and TJ. If Mitchell is successful It is on Mitchell and if he fails it is on Mitchell. Either way he still respects Benford and this university. Amazing to think that successful people out there are not as shallow as people who are full of negativity huh. I wish Mitchell the best and hope he succeeds but there is no blaming anyone else for his ups and downs.

it doesn't matter how much worse the team would have been without mitchell...they underperformed big time this year and the only change was benford.

hopefully, mitchell succeeds in the nba...if he's drafted...

[foutsrouts]

Benford is the reason Mitchel stayed. That in itself kept the team together. That was the big goal. Otherwise just think about how bad our team would have been without CJ, JW, and TJ. If Mitchell is successful It is on Mitchell and if he fails it is on Mitchell. Either way he still respects Benford and this university. Amazing to think that successful people out there are not as shallow as people who are full of negativity huh. I wish Mitchell the best and hope he succeeds but there is no blaming anyone else for his ups and downs.

If that is the case, are you basically saying that RV hired Benford to keep TM around another year? Pretty short sighted by RV IMO. Especially when we're talking a FIVE year contract.

[Andrew]

If that is the case, are you basically saying that RV hired Benford to keep TM around another year? Pretty short sighted by RV IMO. Especially when we're talking a FIVE year contract.

But keeping Mitchell is what kept Jordan and CJ here. CJ already said that if Mitchel declared last year that he was going to leave no matter who the coach was. I wuld assume JW would follow but not sure. He is/was really happy here.

[KRAM1]

Mr. Mitchell will be heard from again. It maybe a few years at worst. Once Mr. Mitchell becomes an NBA success story the sad truth will be that none of his Millions will ever come back to UNT. I bet Tony's will be making Millions and RV will still have our loser Coach Benford around destroying our Men's basketball program!!!!

How do you know that about Mitchell's potential millions? Word is that Tony very much enjoyed being a student at UNT.

But, you are correct about our ex-athletes and the general giving pattern.....in the past that is...like a lot of things at UNT these days that is changing for the better as the AD and coaches reach out to ex-players.

[CMJ]

From what I understand most schools have a hard time getting ex-athletes to give. We're not unique in that respect.

[THOR]

But keeping Mitchell is what kept Jordan and CJ here. CJ already said that if Mitchel declared last year that he was going to leave no matter who the coach was. I wuld assume JW would follow but not sure. He is/was really happy here.

And keeping those players really made a difference last year..

Complete and utter failure...

[Andrew]

And keeping those players really made a difference last year..

Complete and utter failure...

And keeping those players really made a difference last year..

Complete and utter failure...

My point was it could have been worse... Would you have wanted to lose all 3 of those players and not have TJ Taylor this year just to avoid one bad season? The negatives for that comment just show tue stupidity that occurs on these boards. Maybe these players should leave because it is obvious our fans do not deserve them. Edited April 13, 2013 by Andrew

[Green P1]

Would you have wanted to lose all 3 of those players and not have TJ Taylor this year just to avoid one bad season?

Solid question bro.

[UNTLifer]

It isn't a bit. I like Mitchell, he has a ton of potential. I do think he will get drafted on that potential, probably in the 2nd round. I do not think he will ever play any meaningful minutes in an NBA game. To play in the NBA you need be a great shooter or player than can score one-on-one, which he is neither, or be a tenacious defender and rebounder of which he could be except he doesn't hustle and sulks and complains to the refs. So he isn't a guy that can score, and he isn't a hustle guy, so what is he? He is a less talented Brendan Wright that doesn't hustle as much, but can hit an occassional three. I hope he can be the guy that dominated the LeBron Camp, but I am skeptical.

This hits the nail on the head. He potentially was the best player ever at NT but didn't live up to that potential in my opinion. If he did, he would have dominated the Sunbelt.

[Green P1]

You guys really devalue the importance of coaching/motivation.

[Green Dozer]

From what I understand most schools have a hard time getting ex-athletes to give. We're not unique in that respect.

Exactly. Why do you think Ndamukong Suh's donation was such a big deal at Nebraska? Yes, 4 million was one reason, but also because giving is the exception, not the rule. Golfers seem good about giving back though. Fred Couples has given to Houston's golf program. When Payne Stewart was alive, he bought knickers for the SMU golf team.