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Posted

Meh..

Didn't even get our previous records right.

Caught that too. However they later show our 2012 record to be 4-8 but 3-9 adjusted? I have no idea what that is about, maybe they did that for 2011 as well?

Posted (edited)

Caught that too. However they later show our 2012 record to be 4-8 but 3-9 adjusted? I have no idea what that is about, maybe they did that for 2011 as well?

That is done for every team... the adjustment is a statistical adjustment for whomever it is your playing that week, to show basically if the score you got agianst that team would have been good enough to beat an average fbs football team. It's a try to correct for schedule strength. If you do that with last years ohio or ball state teams, you'll be surprised how close their record is to ours.

I am pretty sure he swhowed the past records "adjusted" too.

Edited by outoftown
  • Upvote 1
Posted

While there were a few flaws, I thought that the analysis was very good for someone not connected. One misstatement was that we gave up more long rushes than we made. Per CFB, we had 57 rushes of more than 10 yards and gave up 52.

But, he was right regarding pass vs. run. We had the third best pass defense (using the 14 teams that will be in 2013 CUSA and the third worst run defense. There were 26 more pass plays (420) than rushing plays (394). Our defensive line stopped less than 19% of the running plays; the vast majority of those by the defensive ends. Defensive tackle play must improve if we are to be a factor in next year's conference race.

Statistically, North Texas will rank 4th in next year's CUSA. These statistics assume that the Sun Belt had a similar power-rating to CUSA; which may not be valid. Still, I'm predicting a tight fight with Tulsa for runnerup in the West. East Carolina and Marshall should be the top two teams and Rice should be #1 in the West.

  • Upvote 4
Posted

Caught that too. However they later show our 2012 record to be 4-8 but 3-9 adjusted? I have no idea what that is about, maybe they did that for 2011 as well?

He also counts wins against FCS schools as a different adjusted factor.

Posted

I don't think I noticed before that our defense has 2 3-star guys and a 4-star one. I don't want to go back to the "do ratings count" and "they reduce the number of stars when they sign with teams like us" debate, just pointing it out in case anyone else missed that as well.

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