My Realignment Beliefs

[Arkstfan]

The Wal-Mart effect.

If Wal-Mart comes to your town, you aren't going to beat Wal-Mart on price or number of hours the store is open. You can beat them on selection. You can beat them on service. You can beat them on services offered. You have to find your niche.

I think what we have seen in realignment is Boise State and San Diego State figured out that the former Big East was trying to play the same game the SEC, Big 10, Big XII, P12, and ACC were playing and it was an unwinnable game.

If you look at world of conferences, the WCC, Valley, A10, and even the CAA and from 1995 to 2005 CUSA played a different game from the rich 6 of the era. Their product was more about NCAA basketball units than anything else. Remember the initial CUSA was 6 football and 6 non-football, basketball was the game, namely units. It was the era before BCS access so playing a five or six game football schedule made sense.

The fBE and CUSA are currently constructed on a model of maximum TV dollars, but that tops out at $1.8 million per team currently.

MWC is certainly trying to make TV money but their league is geared toward busting the BCS and now CFP. In all likelihood, MWC is going to generate more money in 2014 from the CFP than from TV. It will generate almost as much in NCAA units as it does in TV.

The MWC's divisional format is going to keep overhead down while having the optimal alignment for NCAA and CFP revenue generation.

The Big Ten Earthquake.

The Big 10 by all accounts is going to 16 as soon as they get everything lined up. The SEC by all accounts doesn't want to go to 16 but the idea of the Big 10 having a base in SEC country or even the Big XII coming in is probably not palatable. The question today is does the SEC make a pre-emptive strike or does it play "nice guy" and simply go bargain hunting after the Big 10 strikes? The Big 10 taking two probably means the SEC goes to 16 as well and the Big XII goes to at least 12. More than likely the ACC is looking to fill up to six positions. That creates an ACC that is no longer part of the rich 5 because the rich 5 is now the rich 4. The TV value once contained in 65 schools is boiled down to 57 schools or 59 or 61 depending on how big the Big XII goes.

The ACC becomes the new fBE.

The south and southwest realign yet again.

And the whole thing may shake out within the next 12 months depending on what the Big 10 does.

[VideoEagle]

It seems pretty obvious the MWC has the right idea. I don't understand why the A-Whatever and CUSA seem to resist that idea so completely. The A-whatever is esentially the old CUSA but their members swear it is much better and their is no comparison between the two. And the current CUSA is basically the Sunbelt but fans swear it is much better. Every move has shrunk the differences between all three confrences. The idea of "recent FCS move ups" being bad makes no sense as no one looks down on UConn anymore.

Once the BIg 5 become the Big 4, a massive realignment should take place at the next level down. The Big 4 are NOT going to break away into their own class as they want to play the rest of us to pad their schedules.

I don't understand the extreme resistance to what will be better for all involved in the end.

[untjim1995]

The Wal-Mart effect.

If Wal-Mart comes to your town, you aren't going to beat Wal-Mart on price or number of hours the store is open. You can beat them on selection. You can beat them on service. You can beat them on services offered. You have to find your niche.

I think what we have seen in realignment is Boise State and San Diego State figured out that the former Big East was trying to play the same game the SEC, Big 10, Big XII, P12, and ACC were playing and it was an unwinnable game.

If you look at world of conferences, the WCC, Valley, A10, and even the CAA and from 1995 to 2005 CUSA played a different game from the rich 6 of the era. Their product was more about NCAA basketball units than anything else. Remember the initial CUSA was 6 football and 6 non-football, basketball was the game, namely units. It was the era before BCS access so playing a five or six game football schedule made sense.

The fBE and CUSA are currently constructed on a model of maximum TV dollars, but that tops out at $1.8 million per team currently.

MWC is certainly trying to make TV money but their league is geared toward busting the BCS and now CFP. In all likelihood, MWC is going to generate more money in 2014 from the CFP than from TV. It will generate almost as much in NCAA units as it does in TV.

The MWC's divisional format is going to keep overhead down while having the optimal alignment for NCAA and CFP revenue generation.

The Big Ten Earthquake.

The Big 10 by all accounts is going to 16 as soon as they get everything lined up. The SEC by all accounts doesn't want to go to 16 but the idea of the Big 10 having a base in SEC country or even the Big XII coming in is probably not palatable. The question today is does the SEC make a pre-emptive strike or does it play "nice guy" and simply go bargain hunting after the Big 10 strikes? The Big 10 taking two probably means the SEC goes to 16 as well and the Big XII goes to at least 12. More than likely the ACC is looking to fill up to six positions. That creates an ACC that is no longer part of the rich 5 because the rich 5 is now the rich 4. The TV value once contained in 65 schools is boiled down to 57 schools or 59 or 61 depending on how big the Big XII goes.

The ACC becomes the new fBE.

The south and southwest realign yet again.

And the whole thing may shake out within the next 12 months depending on what the Big 10 does.

I agree with your thoughts on a lot of levels. I still believe that the smartest thing for both the ACC and Big XII to do is to form an alliance, for the money sports. UNC-Kansas, Texas-Miami, and Oklahoma-Florida State would be huge draws. Have a championship game between those two leagues and a conference tournament involving those two. And if you lose a couple of teams in realignment, then you can go and get UConn and Cincinnati to take their place.

The one thing that is complicating things for the Big 12 and, for sure, Texas, is that they are going to have some major problems to deal with in the LHN. No one wants to sign off on that, unless you are already in the Big XII and are afraid it will be gone if Texas leaves (it would). No one in the Pac, B1G, or ACC will sign off on that, as it currently stands. Whenever the LHN gets pulled off the table, then the fun really starts. Texas (sans LHN) may be the crown jewel (along with Notre Dame) for conference membership, but Notre Dame doesn't carry the barnacles that Texas does. And if Baylor, Tech, or TCU don't get included in anything with Texas, the lawsuits are going to fly fast than internet posts.

The chief barnacle will always be Baylor--their lawyers and legislative weight is still strong. The day Baylor issues bonds for their new stadium will almost assuredly weld Baylor to Texas even more than they are already. Problem is that no one wants Baylor--or Tech--for that matter. The Pac schools don't want a strict religious school that doesn't jive with West Coast politics and doesn't have a nationwide pull, like BYU or ND. The B1G only wants TV sets and AAU institutions. SEC seems only interested in TV markets now, too. Baylor, Tech, and TCU can point to lots of success in different sports over the last 10 years, but their games are only watched at a high level on TV when they play a big name school like Texas or Oklahoma. Look at the attendance of games involving those three schools when they don't involve a big name. The attendance is not bad, but its not great, either, nor are the ratings. The other conferences know this.

The Pac knows that they are somewhat limited on the schools they can pull west. The best options will remain as Texas and Oklahoma. They like Kansas, too. It wouldn't surprise me to see a Pac-16 one day--one that wanted Texas, but couldn't get them because of lots of obstacles that caused it to be too big of a problem, so instead they take on both the Oklahoma and Kansas schools. That wouldn't surprise me at all. I've said it before and I'll say it again, that LHN will be the thing that knocked Texas backwards for a long time. They lost A&M (and Mizzou) over it, their conference is not nearly as strong as it once was in either football or basketball, and no other conference or potential conference mate that is worth anything will sign off on it. When its all said and done, either Texas or ESPN will pull out of that deal--and then the real fireworks will begin!!

[Arkstfan]

Right now if you are an administrator in the MWC or MAC you have to like where you are.

In the MAC they got there by mostly following a doctrine of can I bus there, is the school compatible? They've toyed with some TV oriented moves (Buffalo, UCF, Marshall, Temple, UMass) and they've been mostly a bust.

In the MWC TV certainly played a role. They figured out the right 8 could make about the same money as the wrong 16. But they were driven by gate receipts. That was huge in what they did. They wanted to play games on Saturdays and they wanted to play regional opponents because it is good for local interest and if you sell a few tickets to visitors all the better.

The fBE is just a mess. Any delusion that they had a coherent vision was dispelled when Tulane got the call.

I suspect that if the Big XII could get a do-over they would rethink West Virginia, and the SEC would rethink Mizzou.

Harry laid out the east heaviness of CUSA. If you lay it out on a map, UTEP, Tulsa, UNT, UTSA, Rice, La.Tech with or without USM looks less like a good division of CUSA and more like the core of a solid southwestern oriented league. Everyone except UNT and USM did a stint in the old WAC at some point. It is the old SLC footprint.

Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, FIU, FAU, UAB, MTSU, WKU, looks a whole lot like the OLD Sun Belt (which was founded with USF, Charlotte, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Georgia State, South Alabama and later added UAB, ODU, WKU, VCU).

CUSA dividing east/west is inevitable unless the fBE beats them to it and that might well be the best answer for UNT. It is one thing for SMU to sit in the meetings of an existing conference say no way to UNT, if a league is starting from scratch things might not be so easy.

The reality is that if fBE loses UConn and Cincinnati, Houston is going to call a lot of shots if they choose to. Houston doesn't need SMU. They can literally dictate the terms if they choose to start a league. Yeah SMU, Tulane, Rice, and Tulsa might stick together but who among CUSA (absent Rice) or Sun Belt west of Birmingham would tell Houston to shove it? Even if Rice, SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa stick together everyone else in the region outside of the Big XII and SEC will pick the Houston league over the privates league.

[FirefightnRick]

Our Gibson's in Weatherford beats Wal-Mart on every front except hours of operation.

Rick

[ragpicker]

I bought some jumper cables at Gibson's once. They melted.

[VideoEagle]

I didn't know Gibsons still existed.

[ragpicker]

I didn't know Gibsons still existed.

It was long ago, in Denton as a matter fact, on University.

[VideoEagle]

It was long ago, in Denton as a matter fact, on University.

Yes, that was the last remaining store or so I thought. They died off in south Texas, San Antonio and south, back in the early 70s.

Is there really still one in Weatherford?

[Green P1]

Yes, that was the last remaining store or so I thought. They died off in south Texas, San Antonio and south, back in the early 70s.

Is there really still one in Weatherford?

Yep

[drex]

For the history purists, Fed Mart was on university, not Gibson's. Gibson's was where the current sack n save is close to campus. So sad I am old enough to remember this.

[GrayEagle]

I pretty much concur with Arkstfan and others that see expansion to 16 by the former Big 10, the Southeastern Conference and the Big XII. I think that they cherry-pick the ACC to fill their coffers. Maryland is already gone and I believe that the top ACC teams will be also. There might be a chance at a merger with the Big Twelve if the ACC can get Notre Dame to give up being an independent and add football to their conference. Otherwise, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia and Virginia Tech and maybe others get absorbed into the former BCS conferences.

The Power 4 will be able to afford to jump several states in their pursuit of the best teams but the remainder cannot. The wisest thing, in my opinion, is for those FBS schools to form four conferences based on geography. It would help build rivalries and reduce travel expenses. The most difficult part would be getting some universities to check their egos at the door.

Eight conferences lend itself to a much more workable playoff system, which should eventually happen. Maybe the power conferences would be more placated if there were minimum standards for admission to the FBS.

[untjim1995]

I pretty much concur with Arkstfan and others that see expansion to 16 by the former Big 10, the Southeastern Conference and the Big XII. I think that they cherry-pick the ACC to fill their coffers. Maryland is already gone and I believe that the top ACC teams will be also. There might be a chance at a merger with the Big Twelve if the ACC can get Notre Dame to give up being an independent and add football to their conference. Otherwise, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia and Virginia Tech and maybe others get absorbed into the former BCS conferences.

The Power 4 will be able to afford to jump several states in their pursuit of the best teams but the remainder cannot. The wisest thing, in my opinion, is for those FBS schools to form four conferences based on geography. It would help build rivalries and reduce travel expenses. The most difficult part would be getting some universities to check their egos at the door.

Eight conferences lend itself to a much more workable playoff system, which should eventually happen. Maybe the power conferences would be more placated if there were minimum standards for admission to the FBS.

I've said this before, but I do expect that a Power 4 conference setup will produce a 64-80 type coalition of schools that will stay as the current FBS. What interests me now is what happens to that next level, the current non-AQs and FCS schools that are interested in moving up, like Appy State and Ga Southern are doing. It seems like you would see a level of competition that would be made up of about 70-80 schools. Could schools like SMU, Tulane, Rice, and others like them endure such a thing? I really wonder. Would a conference game involving UNT and SMU in a lower level, as I mentioned before, even possible? It would seem like you could still make money at a level like this, if the travel was controlled better, as well as if a playoff format was implemented that didn't compete with the FBS bowls/playoff. I just wonder if we would support UNT playing at a lower level, but with bigger names than we have played with before. Imagine a FCS-type conference with SMU, Tulsa, Rice, Tulane, ULL, ULM, UNT, UTSA, Texas State, La Tech, UTEP, and NMSU---would UNT fans be as interested as they are now in following their teams or would it increase because of more familiar names and possible rivals in the league? Would it decrease just because it is not the highest level of play? What if it included teams like Baylor,TCU, and Houston, too--teams that could get left behind if realignment went the wrong way? I know, at least for me, if we were in a conference with those institutions, even if it were lower than a Power 4 League, I'd be interested still and would love attending those games. It would be very different from playing the SFAs of the world when we were the only Texas school that got dropped down to 1-aa in the early 80s while the SWC was still rolling along strong. But I just don't know how most fans here would support us if that scenario took place. And I really wonder if any of those other current Big East schools or other schools like them would support their teams anymore either. Maybe they would--maybe SMU would draw the same amount of people for a home game against TCU as a FCS-type conference game as they currently do, I just don't know. But something tells me that within the next 5-10 years, if not sooner, we are all gonna find out.

Edited March 27, 2013 by untjim1995

[FirefightnRick]

Yes, that was the last remaining store or so I thought. They died off in south Texas, San Antonio and south, back in the early 70s.

Is there really still one in Weatherford?

Yes and ours has a few groceries as well.

Last year when I was shopping for my new C&C weapon and decided on the new Springfield XDS .45 ACP, Gibson's beat everyone's prices, including Cheaper Than Dirt, Cabella's, Bass Pro Shops and three other smaller dealers I went to in Tarrant and Parker Counties.

Needless to say I love the place and its one of the perks living out this way.

Rick

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

The old ACC members aren't going to leave.... because of .... basketball.

[letsgiveacheer]

The old ACC members aren't going to leave.... because of .... basketball.

I used to agree with that but ACC basketball is not what it once was. Maryland bolted at its first opportunity. Rumors are strong here saying that UVa and UNC will be next. Of course if that happens, the ACC will pick from the NBE and here we go again.

It's getting to be no fun anymore.

[Green Dozer]

It was long ago, in Denton as a matter fact, on University.

Gibson's was in what is now Sack N Save

[Aquila_Viridis]

I used to get very worked up about us being left behind. At this point I can live with winning most of the time regardless of who we play. For the foreseeable future there will be no running with better established programs or developing meaningful rivalries. I just want to see our administration commit to frequent winning, at whatever level they can accomplish that at. First I guess we need to have an administration though.

I have to travel several hours to see North Texas play no matter where it is. Now I don't even have the easy Jonesboro trip. I won't do it if there is a high probability of losing, so continuation of the current trend will make the Mean Green irrelevant for me pretty soon.

[HoustonEagle]

Who you play does not really matter if you can't beat them.

[ragpicker]

For the history purists, Fed Mart was on university, not Gibson's. Gibson's was where the current sack n save is close to campus. So sad I am old enough to remember this.

You are so right, Drek. Backward, backward, oh time in your flight,(or something like that).

[NT91]

Who you play does not really matter if you can't beat them.

You got that right!

[shaft]

The next big thing in realignment is the Maryland ACC buyout.

If Maryland can get out of the $20 million exit fees, it is going to be race to get teams like Florida State, Virgina Tech, and Miami.

The Big 12 needs two. The Big Ten would take two. The SEC coould take two.

I think the 14 team ACC is a buffer against future raids, not an expansion strategy. The ACC doesn't want to be in a must reload situation expecting teams like CIncy and UConn to offset the loss of VA Tech and FSU.

[letsgiveacheer]

The irony is that the ACC started all of this some years ago when they got Miami and Va Tech from the Big East.

[MeanGreenTexan]

For the history purists, Fed Mart was on university, not Gibson's. Gibson's was where the current sack n save is close to campus. So sad I am old enough to remember this.

Also for you history purists, do you guys remember Hooya!? Wow, that was a bummer when they closed a long time ago.

[Cougar King]

Also for you history purists, do you guys remember Hooya!? Wow, that was a bummer when they closed a long time ago.

Actually, Hooya! closed in 2011. It was across the street from Sack n Save next door to Central League Grill. Before I defected from UNT, I used to spend a lot of money on those burritos.