CFN Spring Preview

[shaft]

2013 Conference USA Spring Preview - West

UTSA QB Eric Soza

By Richard Cirminiello

CollegeFootballNews.com

Posted Mar 6, 2013

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Conference USA Spring Preview - West Division. Why to be excited, grouchy and what needs working on.

2013 Pre-Spring Preview

C-USA West

2013 Conference USA Spring Preview

- 2013 CFN C-USA Spring Preview - East

- 2013 CFN Pre-Preseason C-USA East Rankings

- 2013 CFN Pre-Preseason C-USA West Rankings

- 2013 C-USA Composite Schedule & Weekly Rankings

- 2013 C-USA East Schedule Analysis

- 2013 C-USA West Schedule Analysis

Louisiana Tech

Start: March 15, Spring Game: April 13

Why To Get Excited … no one in Conference USA will feature a better pair of backs than the Bulldogs. New head coach Skip Holtz favors balance, which doesn’t figure to be a problem in his first year in Ruston. Tevin King was running wild when he was lost in Week 3 to a season-ending injury. His replacement? True freshman Kenneth Dixon took over and rushed for 1,194 yards and 27 touchdowns.

Why To Be Grouchy … Tech was built for 2012, yet didn’t even participate in a bowl game. Galvanizing head coach Sonny Dykes is now at Cal, and many of last season’s top performers have exhausted their eligibility. Most notable is the departure of QB Colby Cameron, who threw 31 touchdown passes and only five picks in his finale.

The Number One Thing To Work On Is … shoring up the defense. The Bulldogs won’t have Dykes’ attack—or Cameron—to bail them out this fall. Tech was horrid on D a year ago, yielding a nation’s-high 526 yards per game. While the line has a chance to be sneaky-good, it’ll have to be otherworldly to compensate for the team’s leaky secondary.

North Texas

Start: March 20, Spring Game: April 13

Why To Get Excited … third-year head coach Dan McCarney has the Mean Green moving in the right direction ever so gradually. No, it’s not always evident in the standings, but North Texas is a better and deeper team than it was before McCarney got to Denton. It’s a long process, but the needle is pointing in the direction.

Why To Be Grouchy … the program’s postseason drought has now reached eight years. The Mean Green hasn’t bowled since 2004, leaving the fan base a little tired of moral victories. The program would benefit from the addition of a few more playmakers, especially after scoring more than 24 points just once in 11 games with FBS opponents.

The Number One Thing To Work On Is … improving the overall efficiency of the offense. North Texas would move the ball at times last season, but too often stalled at the least opportune moments in a game. The Mean Green was a dismal 103rd nationally in red zone touchdowns, and 116th when attempting to convert on third downs.

http://www.gomeangreen.com/forums/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=new_post&f=4

[Mean Green 93-98]

http://www.gomeangreen.com/forums/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=new_post&f=4

It looks like you posted the wrong link there.

EDIT: I think this is the one you want: http://cfn.scout.com/2/1272070.html

Edited March 9, 2013 by Mean Green 93-98

[Mean Green 93-98]

Their preseason rankings for C-USA West:

1. Tulsa

2. Rice

3. LaTech

4. Tulane

5. UTEP

6. North Texas

7. UT-San Antonio

6. North Texas (4-8)

The Mean Green might be closer than it appears to getting back to a winning level. Moving up in weight class to Conference USA might not appear to be a plus, but eight starters return to a nice defense that did a decent job. Linebacker Zach Orr will be among the new league’s top tacklers, and even though top pass rusher K.C. Obi is gone, there are plenty of options ready to step up and do more. All four starters are back to a young secondary with good potential. The offensive line led the nation in fewest sacks allowed, giving up just six all season, and now it welcomes back four starters, only losing center Aaron Fortenberry. Quarterback Derek Thompson is back along with several decent targets, but he loses leading receiver Ivan Delgado. Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson form a good running tandem.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1261614.html

Two spots behind TULANE? Ugh.

[UNTLifer]

And no mention.of Berglund.

[JesseMartin]

And no mention.of Berglund.

I think they leave out any idea of new players until there's something of note to report - i.e. being named starter, etc. Seems to be the case with every preseason article every year. This may play to our advantage, if all goes well. We shall see.

[shaft]

I think the real take away from this article is that nearly all our conference games are 50-50 games.

It was also nice to see something noting Mac's progress and talking about how next year's record may not be the indicator of how much he's accomplished here.

[eulessismore]

I think the real take away from this article is that nearly all our conference games are 50-50 games.

It was also nice to see something noting Mac's progress and talking about how next year's record may not be the indicator of how much he's accomplished here.

We'll still be grouchy if we aren't bowl eligible next year.

[emmitt01]

I think the real take away from this article is that nearly all our conference games are 50-50 games.

It was also nice to see something noting Mac's progress and talking about how next year's record may not be the indicator of how much he's accomplished here.

There's ALWAYS next year.

[North Texas Shep]

I believe most in CUSA are not expecting much from us. So, hopefully we surprise them and get some big wins (enough wins to get into a bowl game).

[Eagle1855]

I think they leave out any idea of new players until there's something of note to report - i.e. being named starter, etc. Seems to be the case with every preseason article every year. This may play to our advantage, if all goes well. We shall see.

True, assuming opposing coaches don't read this. *fingers crossed*

[GrayEagle]

I don't know how the writer arrived at these rankings but I'd bet he didn't crunch any numbers. I did and found a few surprises.

I used raw, unweighted data for offensive and defensive statistics based on the players returning. Admittedly, I didn't factor any new players into the mix but I got considerately different standings than CFN.

Here are my standings:

WEST

1. Rice

2. North Texas

3. Tulsa

4. Louisiana Tech

5. Tulane

6. UTSA

7. UTEP

Rice has the best defense returning barely edging out...North Texas. In fact, if our DL had not been so weak we would've been #1. Our offense was mediocre but we returned most of them where others were largely senior groups. Tulsa had far and away the best defense last year but they had pretty heavy losses. They have the best rushing offense but their passing is mediocre at best. La Tech had the best offense in the nation last year and the worst defense. They keep one great running back but not much else. They also have a new coach. Tulane has an almost decent defense returning but their offense is pathetic. They had no running game and their passer graduated. They do have a couple of decent receivers if someone can get them the ball. It was hard to put UTSA ahead of UTEP when I knew their numbers were skewed because of a weak schedule (except for four teams). The Miners need to start over with their new coach and build from scratch.

EAST

1, East Carolina

2. Marshall

3. UAB

4. Middle Tennessee

5. Southern Miss

6. FAU

7. FIU

East Carolina has the best defense returning; Marshall the best offense. That should be a very close race. UAB was another surprise. They didn't lose as much as the Muts so they get the edge. Neither are outstanding on either side of the ball. Southern Miss should return to their rightful place but not this year. It's just too much to expect from a new coach who inherited a disaster. FAU's returning defense slips it slightly ahead of FIU (who also has a new coach to break in).

I was surprised that our defense was that good. If we can get improvement to our mediocre offense we could have a winning season. At any rate, we're not nearly as bad as CFN paints us and I'd wager that I'm closer to reality than they are.

[Mean Green 93-98]

I don't know how the writer arrived at these rankings but I'd bet he didn't crunch any numbers. I did and found a few surprises.

I used raw, unweighted data for offensive and defensive statistics based on the players returning. Admittedly, I didn't factor any new players into the mix but I got considerately different standings than CFN.

Here are my standings:

WEST

1. Rice

2. North Texas

3. Tulsa

4. Louisiana Tech

5. Tulane

6. UTSA

7. UTEP

Rice has the best defense returning barely edging out...North Texas. In fact, if our DL had not been so weak we would've been #1. Our offense was mediocre but we returned most of them where others were largely senior groups. Tulsa had far and away the best defense last year but they had pretty heavy losses. They have the best rushing offense but their passing is mediocre at best. La Tech had the best offense in the nation last year and the worst defense. They keep one great running back but not much else. They also have a new coach. Tulane has an almost decent defense returning but their offense is pathetic. They had no running game and their passer graduated. They do have a couple of decent receivers if someone can get them the ball. It was hard to put UTSA ahead of UTEP when I knew their numbers were skewed because of a weak schedule (except for four teams). The Miners need to start over with their new coach and build from scratch.

EAST

1, East Carolina

2. Marshall

3. UAB

4. Middle Tennessee

5. Southern Miss

6. FAU

7. FIU

East Carolina has the best defense returning; Marshall the best offense. That should be a very close race. UAB was another surprise. They didn't lose as much as the Muts so they get the edge. Neither are outstanding on either side of the ball. Southern Miss should return to their rightful place but not this year. It's just too much to expect from a new coach who inherited a disaster. FAU's returning defense slips it slightly ahead of FIU (who also has a new coach to break in).

I was surprised that our defense was that good. If we can get improvement to our mediocre offense we could have a winning season. At any rate, we're not nearly as bad as CFN paints us and I'd wager that I'm closer to reality than they are.

Please don't build up my hopes like this only so I can have my heart ripped out little by little through the course of next season.

Interesting thoughts, though. I would be thrilled if it works out this way.

[GoMeanGreen1999]

There's ALWAYS next year.

ALWAYS.

[GrayEagle]

I don't know how the writer arrived at these rankings but I'd bet he didn't crunch any numbers. I did and found a few surprises.

I used raw, unweighted data for offensive and defensive statistics based on the players returning. Admittedly, I didn't factor any new players into the mix but I got considerately different standings than CFN.

Here are my standings:

WEST

1. Rice

2. North Texas

3. Tulsa

4. Louisiana Tech

5. Tulane

6. UTSA

7. UTEP

Rice has the best defense returning barely edging out...North Texas. In fact, if our DL had not been so weak we would've been #1. Our offense was mediocre but we returned most of them where others were largely senior groups. Tulsa had far and away the best defense last year but they had pretty heavy losses. They have the best rushing offense but their passing is mediocre at best. La Tech had the best offense in the nation last year and the worst defense. They keep one great running back but not much else. They also have a new coach. Tulane has an almost decent defense returning but their offense is pathetic. They had no running game and their passer graduated. They do have a couple of decent receivers if someone can get them the ball. It was hard to put UTSA ahead of UTEP when I knew their numbers were skewed because of a weak schedule (except for four teams). The Miners need to start over with their new coach and build from scratch.

EAST

1, East Carolina

2. Marshall

3. UAB

4. Middle Tennessee

5. Southern Miss

6. FAU

7. FIU

East Carolina has the best defense returning; Marshall the best offense. That should be a very close race. UAB was another surprise. They didn't lose as much as the Muts so they get the edge. Neither are outstanding on either side of the ball. Southern Miss should return to their rightful place but not this year. It's just too much to expect from a new coach who inherited a disaster. FAU's returning defense slips it slightly ahead of FIU (who also has a new coach to break in).

I was surprised that our defense was that good. If we can get improvement to our mediocre offense we could have a winning season. At any rate, we're not nearly as bad as CFN paints us and I'd wager that I'm closer to reality than they are.

Upon further review...

Unfortunately, the old man's eyesight is getting poorer. I got off one line on a statistic and it affected Tulsa. I would now have to move them ahead of North Texas and into second in the West. It improved their offensive numbers to top ours by a little. (Now, if Berglund, Pegram, Terrell, et al can improve our offensive numbers then I believe that we can finish 1st or 2nd in the division). So, for the time being, I have to revise my standings in the West to 1) Rice 2) Tulsa and 3) North Texas.

[Mean Green 93-98]

Upon further review...

Unfortunately, the old man's eyesight is getting poorer. I got off one line on a statistic and it affected Tulsa. I would now have to move them ahead of North Texas and into second in the West. It improved their offensive numbers to top ours by a little. (Now, if Berglund, Pegram, Terrell, et al can improve our offensive numbers then I believe that we can finish 1st or 2nd in the division). So, for the time being, I have to revise my standings in the West to 1) Rice 2) Tulsa and 3) North Texas.

Still not bad. I'd already had Rice and Tulsa blowing us out next season anyway.

Do you have any more details on the formula you used? Just curious.

[GoMeanGreen1999]

Please don't build up my hopes like this only so I can have my heart ripped out little by little through the course of next season.

Interesting thoughts, though. I would be thrilled if it works out this way.

For about the last 6 years CFN gives their predictions on us and we never think they know what they are talking about since you know, they haven't really been here to see us or whatever the reason. Then each year we to the Spring game and it shows us even more of how little they know. Then we actually play the games and low and behold, CFN wasn't too far off. I am not drinking the Kool-Aid. Until they show us different, it will be more of the same.

[GrayEagle]

Still not bad. I'd already had Rice and Tulsa blowing us out next season anyway.

Do you have any more details on the formula you used? Just curious.

I don't really want to go into detail but for offense I used returning rushing and receiving yardage, passing yardage, and scoring. For defense I used tackles returning (over 10 individually), passes defended and interceptions. Part of the defensive statistics were compared by unit (DL, LB, DB) and compared against national rank last year. I did not weigh statistics (for example a pass broken up counted the same as an interception) and compared the data against each conference member.

By the way, if you are interested in comparing some figures of this nature, cfbstats.com is invaluable as they have a lot of this worked out for you and you just have to remove the senior data.

[southsideguy]

could be worse you could be new mexico lobo football fan! I am finally leaving Albuquerque,nm and moving back to Denton, TX. Just sorry i missed the basketball game this year at the middle school (fund raiser)l. Hope to meet everyone at the games. LAst game i was at was Fouts field and i looking forward to the games at the new stadium.

[Harry]

could be worse you could be new mexico lobo football fan! I am finally leaving Albuquerque,nm and moving back to Denton, TX. Just sorry i missed the basketball game this year at the middle school (fund raiser)l. Hope to meet everyone at the games. LAst game i was at was Fouts field and i looking forward to the games at the new stadium.

Good to have you back in the fold!

[UNT90]

could be worse you could be new mexico lobo football fan! I am finally leaving Albuquerque,nm and moving back to Denton, TX. Just sorry i missed the basketball game this year at the middle school (fund raiser)l. Hope to meet everyone at the games. LAst game i was at was Fouts field and i looking forward to the games at the new stadium.

Welcome back to civilization.

[akriesman]

For about the last 6 years CFN gives their predictions on us and we never think they know what they are talking about since you know, they haven't really been here to see us or whatever the reason. Then each year we to the Spring game and it shows us even more of how little they know. Then we actually play the games and low and behold, CFN wasn't too far off. I am not drinking the Kool-Aid. Until they show us different, it will be more of the same.

Ditto for me. I am going into the season cautiously optimistic. My hope is that Brock an some of the other key transfers are going to overachieve this season. All of us here at NT are certainly overdue for a huge break or two when it comes to sports success.

However, when I start to get excited about things, I look back at our last 3 recruiting classes and realize that the deck is certainly stacked against us. That is a fact that cannot be denied.

Does this mean our FB team cannot be successful this year ? Absolutely not. But, we are going to need superior coaching and conditioning to overcome the fact that our players weren't the biggest, fastest or most agile coming out of HS. Most of the other schools we will be playing can afford a slip up or two. To have success, we are going to have to come together as a tight-knit team that plays disciplined, consistent and nearly mistake free football.

I am hoping for the best this season, but certainly not expecting it.