Year 3 will be critical for McCarney and UNT

[stryker]

With signing day just around the corner and spring ball not far behind, I think it's fair to say that the third year of the Dan McCarney era will be critical not just for the coach, but for the AD and UNT athletics as well. McCarney has done a lot of good things so far in his first two years considering the train wreck he inherited, but going into his third season with the majority of his roster made up of his recruits, it's going to be time for him to show that he has the program headed in the right direction and that means in terms of wins. We can talk about recruiting and offseason workouts, but ultimately it comes down to wins and losses on the field. I've said before, the days of college coaches getting 4-5 years to turn a program around are over. That third is critical because it is often used as a benchmark to see if the current coach has things going in the right direction or not. If it is, the coach gets the 4th and 5th year. If not, it's not uncommon for a head coaching change to be made. Does that mean it's bowl game or bust for UNT in 2013? No, but I think to show that McCarney is the right man, that he has to win 5 or 6 games next season and with our schedule, that's certainly not unreasonable. Our nonconference schedule is the best it's been in years. There's no reason for UNT to enter Conference USA play next year with anything less an a 2-2 record. 3-1 is even possible. Start 1-3 or worst case scenario 0-4, and the doubts will start to creep in. If UNT has another 3 or 4 win season, then I think UNT has to seriously consider whether McCarney is the right person for the job, especially after making the horrid decision to give Todd Dodge a fourth year.

Taking it a step further, McCarney's success or failure may likely impact the tenure of Rick Villarreal as well.Right now the jury's still out on McCarney but If he ultimately cannot get UNT back to a winning record and a bowl game, I wouldn't rule out that RV may not get a chance to hire a third football coach especially after one of the worst hires in NCAA history in Todd Dodge. Add to that a men's basketball program that entered the season with high expectations and has been a disaster with a head coach in Tony Benford (ranks right up there with the Dodge hire as far as a program killer) not to mention Shanice Stephens, and, outside of Johnny Jones, RV has not exactly been superb in his coaching hires for the major sports (football, men's and women's basketball). Yes he's done a lot for the university as far as facilities (we wouldn't have Apogee without him), but again, it comes down to your programs winning more than losing, and at UNT, football is still the #1 sport and McCarney's success or failure may determine the athletic director's future.

Edited January 30, 2013 by stryker

[meangreendork]

Add to that a men's basketball program that entered the season with high expectations and has been a disaster with a head coach in Tony Benford (ranks right up there with the Dodge hire as far as a program killer)

Woah, Benford hasn't done a great job yet, but he's not done 4 years of game loss damage and 4 years of recruiting damage.

[MeanGreenTexan]

Woah, Benford hasn't done a great job yet, but he's not done 4 years of game loss damage and 4 years of recruiting damage.

Are you sure? Think current state VS future state.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

We know the coaches will take the hit if the season doesn't go well. What I really want to see is whether these three recruiting classes, plus the prep part of Dodge's 2010 class stand up against a little stiffer competition.

I don't think any of us expected to be playing old Sun Belt foes in 2013 when they originally announced that we were moving to the C-USA. We'll see how badly the players want...or, if they even have the ability to deliver it. I worry on both fronts.

Three years ago, I'd have never imagined I'd be in slightest bit worried. I thought we'd see a real uptick in recruiting and on the field product. We're for sure better than we were during the Dodge years. I know things are being done right in the classroom, and that's a huge improvement. After a while, though, you'd really like to see it on the field as well.

[stryker]

Definitely better than the Dodge years. I can't argue with that. I do think the Mean Green overachieved a bit during McCarney's first year and took a small step back next year. As was mentioned in the above post, the upcoming season will be key as far as how the last three recruiting classes contribute. I'm not looking for a conference title or even a bowl game, but 5 wins or a. 500 record would position UNT well for the 2014 season.

[untjim1995]

McCarney will be back unless we go 2-10 or worse. Even a 3-9 or a 4-8 record gets a 4th year. THE university won't buyout two years of the most expensive contract they have ever given without a truly horrible year. Plus, as alluded to earlier, there's just no way that RV will fire him, knowing full well that four of his hires would be Dodge, McCarney, Benford, and Shanice Stephens. The last one doesn't really count too much, since womens hoops doesn't bring any attention at all to the school (good or bad), but it just adds a layer of gravy to the crap that we have been told was top sirloin. He gets a high grade for extending JJ, he gets an average grade for extending Dickey, and he get extra credit for hiring Aston and Peterson, even though they don't really bring any $$$ into the AD. Otherwise, with 2 F's (Dodge and Stephens) and what appears to be another sure F (Benford), he better hope that C (McCarney) turns into an A or B real soon. If he is an F, I cannot see how RV keeps his job. And if RV does keep his job in the sceanrio just described, we all might as well finally realize that our school jsut doesn't give a true damn about athletics.

[UNT90]

we all might as well finally realize that our school jsut doesn't give a true damn about athletics.

If Mac goes 2-10 or worse and is brought back, the above realization you speak of will become reality.

[JesseMartin]

Per the OOC games...2-2 or 3-1? Ohio and the Balls Taters are pretty tough, and obviously UGA is a "pray for the best" game. I don't think anyone will be shocked if we are 1-3 after those, with Idaho being a must-win. If we can take down either of the MAC teams then great, but I don't think it would resonate as poorly with the faithful as if we had lost to a couple of 2-10 teams or something.

I think that even with going up half a notch in conference affiliation puts us at the situation where 0-2 wins=he's gone, 3 wins=hot seat, 4-5 wins=acceptable and 6+ wins=damn fine job.

As far as RV goes, I would suspect that if the FB season tanks, he will be looking for a new job while hoping the BB season starts off well. If you guys are right (and based on the wins, I think you may be), UNT will probably evaluate things based on this coming year's performance of the "big three" sports, so if Mac does poorly but the BB teams see a decent upswing, he may still be safe for a bit. I like Rick, but since his position (and now, his mustache) are so high-profile, I'm sure he has already considered this set of possibilities.

Regardless of the depth of our presumptive predictions, I'm just hoping that all of you will buy into the "Balls Taters" moniker. I've been giggling about that one every time I look at box scores for a while now.

[Green Dozer]

Sorry, I think the decision to hire. Mac was made by Rawlins.

[emmitt01]

Sorry, I think the decision to hire. Mac was made by Rawlins.

The buck stops with RV. He either takes blame for the bad hires or doesn't get credit for the good ones.

And I think RV has to be evaluated on the people who were brought in under his watch.

Edited January 31, 2013 by emmitt01

[Green Dozer]

The buck stops with RV. He either takes blame for the bad hires or doesn't get credit for the good ones.
And I think RV has to be evaluated on the people who were brought in under his watch. The buck stops with RV. He either takes blame for the bad hires or doesn't get credit for the good ones.
And I think RV has to be evaluated on the people who were brought in under his watch.

Don't disagree, but I think Mac was Rawlins"s pick from the beginning. But we are both right since Rawlins is 150 and won't be around more than likely when Mac is done here anyway. So Rick will take the fall or get credit.

[stryker]

I cannot see McCarney back if he finishes with 3 wins or fewer. UNT made the mistake of giving Dodge a 4th year when it was obvious he should've been given a pink slip. A 4th year if we take a step back in wins again won't bode well for the program's future.

[GrandGreen]

Sorry, I think the decision to hire. Mac was made by Rawlins.

Lets see Stephens and McCarney were not RV decisions. Might as well throw Dodge in there too and although Dickey was definitely not RV's hire; his lack of control over Dickey and his program was due to the interfering BOR.

BS, RV is responsible for all that. Even if it was actually dictated by higher ups, you ether convince them to go another way, take the blame or hit the road.

I really don't know why so many defend RV's bad hires by stating that it was someone else's decision. Every AD makes bad hires, but to me it is a much worse indictment to suggest that the AD employed someone who he knew was incapable because he didn't have the spine or skill to hold out for a qualified candidate.

I

[UNT90]

Lets see Stephens and McCarney were not RV decisions. Might as well throw Dodge in there too and although Dickey was definitely not RV's hire; his lack of control over Dickey and his program was due to the interfering BOR.

BS, RV is responsible for all that. Even if it was actually dictated by higher ups, you ether convince them to go another way, take the blame or hit the road.

I really don't know why so many defend RV's bad hires by stating that it was someone else's decision. Every AD makes bad hires, but to me it is a much worse indictment to suggest that the AD employed someone who he knew was incapable because he didn't have the spine or skill to hold out for a qualified candidate.

I

Solid.

[Mean Green 93-98]

I cannot see McCarney back if he finishes with 3 wins or fewer. UNT made the mistake of giving Dodge a 4th year when it was obvious he should've been given a pink slip. A 4th year if we take a step back in wins again won't bode well for the program's future.

Barring unmitigated disaster, UNT will not buy out 2 years of a $500k/year coach's contract.

[GrayEagle]

A fourth season following a 2 or 3 win season could cost more than a $million in terms of donations, ticket sales, advertising, etc. If he can't fashion four or more wins playing Idaho (1 win), UTSA (4 FBS wins), Southern Miss (0 wins), and Tulane (2 wins) then he needs to be gone.

I like most everything that Dan McCarney has done except recruiting. He has done well in getting quality transfers but we are ranking in the bottom 20-25 on national signing day.

[untjim1995]

A fourth season following a 2 or 3 win season could cost more than a $million in terms of donations, ticket sales, advertising, etc. If he can't fashion four or more wins playing Idaho (1 win), UTSA (4 FBS wins), Southern Miss (0 wins), and Tulane (2 wins) then he needs to be gone.

I like most everything that Dan McCarney has done except recruiting. He has done well in getting quality transfers but we are ranking in the bottom 20-25 on national signing day.

"Needs to be gone" is different from "will be gone"--3-4 wins will be enough for this university to keep him. The $$$ outlay to buyout the coach plus the buy in of a new coach is more to the university than the perceived cost of losing $$$ by bringing him back another year. We po' but proud...

All this said, and I'm guilty of this, but I do truly believe that we will see a good year from this team. Coach Mac has done everything he can to build this thing up from below the ground. I think we will get a nice record because the schedule in conference is just not that hard, even if the names sound better than the SBC. I'd much rather play Tulane than ULL. I'd rather play Southern Miss than Arky State. I'd rather play UTSA, Rice, and UTEP than Troy, Western Kentucky, and ULM. And not just because they are former SBC teams, but becasue they are all better than the teams I listed from CUSA. We will go 1-3 in OOC, then I think we will get 4-5 wins in conference play. I really believe Berglund will be the guy to make us better, especially if he has Jimmerson in the backfield all year long. I see wins against Tulane, UTEP, UTSA, and a win or two against USM, La Tech, MUTS and Rice. The only game I think we will get crushed in CUSA play is at Tulsa. It actually wouldn't surprise me at all to see Southern Miss come back strong and La Tech to fall back real hard, but I think we could get one of those two or both.

I think this would make this whole thread a moot point. At least I hope so. Again, I like McCarney and I think he and Chico need a QB that can throw down the field with accuracy, not just a guy who can't even be counted on to throw a sinple 5 yard pass with any consistency. I think the running game will only get better if Berglund can be that QB we haven't seen since Scott Hall was here. And I think the defense will be better, if only because I think an improved offense would buy them more time on the sidelines. We need MAJOR improvements on special teams, which I think could still be the achilles heal of this squad (sound familiar over the last 8 years?) But I think we will go 5-7 or 6-6. And I'm not exactly the homer that others on this board are ever year about this time.

[UNT90]

The disater that Benford has orchestrated in basketball will put even more pressure to win on the football program this fall.

People are sick and freaking tired of losing.

Edited February 1, 2013 by UNT90

[wardly]

I agree that looking at our schedule we should fall in the 4&8 worse case and 6&6 as best.What concerns me is that I don't see any difference in the 3A and 4A players Dickey recruited and the level of athletics Mac is bringing in.Regarding Dodge, we are still paying for his last 2 years.

[untjim1995]

The disater that Benford has orchestrated in basketball will put even more pressure to win on the football program this fall.

People are sick and freaking tired of losing.

I'm not sure I agree with your last sentence here. I think a few are, but the people at the top and in the BOR certainly aren't, nor are the folks in Denton that you want to start coming around to attend games.

In reality, as wardly posted a while back, we have been a loser for the 50 years, except for a few years in the late 60s, mid 70s, and early 00's in football. In basketball, we have had decent teams in the 70s and 00s, but nothing that has made an impact regionally, much less nationally. People aren't sick and tired of losing around here--they are apathetic to it. Alumni, students, faculty, Denton residents, and DFW media absolutely don't care about UNT sports. If even a few percentage more did care, we would've had to build a bigger stadium. We can't sell out Apogee for its opening game against a highly ranked, in-state opponent in UH. We couldn't sell out the Super Pit when a ranked UT team played here back in 1997. Its not that they are sick of this, its that they literally don't care. And, in many instances, more than we want to still believe, most of the group I listed above actually loathe athletics.

I truly believe If you want to see people care around here, tell them that the Green Brigade and the One O'Clock Lab Band will be doing a concert at Apogee before, during, and after a football game, and that the only way you can see them is to pay and stay the whole time. Tell them that we are having an arts festival inside Apogee's concourse all day that requires you to buy a ticket to the football game to attend the show. This isn't College Station or Lubbock, where the football games are the place to be on a Saturday. I don't know if there are any other college towns with FBS programs that love the arts and music so much more than they do athletics--heck, maybe that is refreshing in that Denton breaks the mold on this and strives to keep a wonderful fine arts program available for its citizenry instead of being all about its football team. But it seems to me that you either have to fish or cut bait in today's FBS world. You either fund the program properly (advertising, salaries, facility upgrades, recruiting budgets, etc.) or you don't. To me, we are about halfway to where we should be, in terms of funding and promoting this program, which is light years ahead of where we were just twenty years ago, when we really gave athletics about a 10% commitment. But, its still not enough to make more people care to get truly interested and invested in this place. Until you do that, there will be never be enough people that are sick and tired enough about this program to bring about change. It will just lead to an even worse outcome--more apathy.

[UNT90]

I'm not sure I agree with your last sentence here. I think a few are, but the people at the top and in the BOR certainly aren't, nor are the folks in Denton that you want to start coming around to attend games.

In reality, as wardly posted a while back, we have been a loser for the 50 years, except for a few years in the late 60s, mid 70s, and early 00's in football. In basketball, we have had decent teams in the 70s and 00s, but nothing that has made an impact regionally, much less nationally. People aren't sick and tired of losing around here--they are apathetic to it. Alumni, students, faculty, Denton residents, and DFW media absolutely don't care about UNT sports. If even a few percentage more did care, we would've had to build a bigger stadium. We can't sell out Apogee for its opening game against a highly ranked, in-state opponent in UH. We couldn't sell out the Super Pit when a ranked UT team played here back in 1997. Its not that they are sick of this, its that they literally don't care. And, in many instances, more than we want to still believe, most of the group I listed above actually loathe athletics.

I truly believe If you want to see people care around here, tell them that the Green Brigade and the One O'Clock Lab Band will be doing a concert at Apogee before, during, and after a football game, and that the only way you can see them is to pay and stay the whole time. Tell them that we are having an arts festival inside Apogee's concourse all day that requires you to buy a ticket to the football game to attend the show. This isn't College Station or Lubbock, where the football games are the place to be on a Saturday. I don't know if there are any other college towns with FBS programs that love the arts and music so much more than they do athletics--heck, maybe that is refreshing in that Denton breaks the mold on this and strives to keep a wonderful fine arts program available for its citizenry instead of being all about its football team. But it seems to me that you either have to fish or cut bait in today's FBS world. You either fund the program properly (advertising, salaries, facility upgrades, recruiting budgets, etc.) or you don't. To me, we are about halfway to where we should be, in terms of funding and promoting this program, which is light years ahead of where we were just twenty years ago, when we really gave athletics about a 10% commitment. But, its still not enough to make more people care to get truly interested and invested in this place. Until you do that, there will be never be enough people that are sick and tired enough about this program to bring about change. It will just lead to an even worse outcome--more apathy.

The people that care about losing are the people that donated $3 million to build a basketball practice facility, that will donate toward the new baseball stadium.

I would imagine those people are not happy right about now. At least I would hope sip.

Edited February 1, 2013 by UNT90

[All About UNT]

The people that care about losing are the people that donated $3 million to build a basketball practice facility, that will donate toward the new baseball stadium.

I would imagine those people are not happy right about now. At least I would hope sip.

I wonder if, quietly, those donors would have objections to using some of those funds to buy out Benford?

[SilverEagle]

I wonder if, quietly, those donors would have objections to using some of those funds to buy out Benford?

That would only be half of the solution. After Benford is bought out, we should ask the AD at UTA how much he would charge us to screen and hire our next BB coach.....

[UNT90]

I really don't understand the lack of interviews for this position.

[GreenMachine]

Barring unmitigated disaster, UNT will not buy out 2 years of a $500k/year coach's contract.

if we only win 2 or 3 games this coming season, I don't think we can afford NOT to buy out McCarney's contract.