Ridiculously early 2013 predictions

UNT90 · January 27, 2013

Something I think we also need to remember is that we are returning a very experienced team, we were extremely young last year and will have a lot of returning starters. If you're expectations are below 6-6 you need to raise those...
We have what I consider one 'unwinnable' game against Georgia, and two more very tough road games against Tulsa and La. tech... Outside of that, we should consider every other opponent an even match in my book...

Ball St. returns just about everybody from a 9-4 bowl team. A VERY TOUGH home game. Did I metion that Ball St. has been really good, then sucked, and is now really good again while we have continually sucked? Oh, and they blew out the next team on the list:

Ohio returns just about everybody from a 9-4 bowl team that beat Penn St. and destroyed ULM in the Independance Bowl. Ohio returns a senior QB named Tyler Tettleton. All he did was throw for well over 5,800 yards the last two seasons (2,800 yards, 18 TDs 4 ints, 62% completion rating, and a 141 QB rating last year). If you think we win this game on the road, you are just simply dillusional.

Tulsa won 10 games this year, along with a win over UCF in the CUSA title game and a bowl victory over Iowa St (yes, a Big 12 team). Tulsa graduates 18 seniors, 8 of which were defensive starters (including the entire defensive fromt 4). They only lose 4 on offense (including no skill position players and 3 O-linemen). The players that take their place will most likely be better than our returning starters. That is just where Tulsa is as a program compared to UNT.

All 3 of these are pretty much unwinnable, and most definitely are not an "even match".

I could go further, but you get the point. (MTSU, while not unwinnable, is going to be an EXTREMELY TOUGH home game).

Don't underestimate the leap in competition that we are making.

Edited January 27, 2013 by UNT90

shaft · January 27, 2013

And this is what is wrong with this football program. We never expect anything.

Well, you get what you ask for.

I'm calling 90 out on this one. I have got a 10 year track record on this board of being anything but a cheerleader. But this notion that a coach isn't meeting messageboard "demands" and that's "the" problem with the program is just stupid and shows that you're not a very good or objective judge of this program.

THE DODGE ERA WAS THE WORST IN SCHOOL HISTORY. That's a fact. No one is contesting it.

He brought in the wrong scheme, the wrong players, and didn't "coach'em up".

Mac is in year two of a complete rebuild. To speak to the school analogy in the other thread it's not about expecting A's and B's, when your kid has been held back a grade level for four years.

There's no amount of message board bitching that is going to make Dodge recruit any bigger, faster, or teach them a new position.

It takes 4 years to clean house for a bottom 10 prgoram, and that's what Mac took over.

BillySee58 · January 27, 2013

My gut tells me we're no more than a 5 win team again. All of our reasons to hope for improvement are complete unknowns and I fear we're getting Stratford'd all over again.

We have been Stratford'd again. Not by Berglund, Terrell, or Pegram, but by Cam Feldt. UNTJim is right, Stratford couldn't crack the depth chart at OU for a reason, neither could Feldt at Arkansas or here.

Terrell was out of position at tight end at Texas and Pegram was cracking the depth chart at the end of his Purdue career, as evidenced by his bowl game performance. So hopefully these guys and Berglund turn out better, as they have been in practice at least so far, but I just can't see how Berglund would end up being less productive than Thompson. Tired of seeing 8-9 in the box.

GrandGreen · January 27, 2013

There are three games on this schedule that NT will be favored in. I hope they do a lot better but this is a tougher schedule than last year and NT is going to have to really improve to win more than 4.

Many are predicting away games at Tulane and USM has wins, may happen but those both will be tough. Tulane was improving toward the end of the year while NT was going the other way and has the best recruiting year in decades. USM is not likely to be a disaster two years in a row

bleedgreen4ever · January 27, 2013

This year I think is very unpredictable, but without a question the team will be a better team than last year's team. However, our schedule will be tougher. I still think this year will show what Mac is truly building and that we'll go 6-6 at the least and return to a bowl game after nearly a decade.

Edited January 27, 2013 by bleedgreen4ever

GOMG2013 · January 27, 2013

.

Tulsa won 10 games this year, along with a win over UCF in the CUSA title game and a bowl victory over Iowa St (yes, a Big 12 team). Tulsa graduates 18 seniors, 8 of which were defensive starters (including the entire defensive fromt 4). They only lose 4 on offense (including no skill position players and 3 O-linemen). The players that take their place will most likely be better than our returning starters. That is just where Tulsa is as a program compared to UNT.

All 3 of these are pretty much unwinnable, and most definitely are not an "even match".

Losing 8 Starters off their defense is a lot. Especially the whole front 4. I had Tulsa down as a loss, but they are beatable.

I noticed a few people had the home game against Rice down as a loss. They went 7-6, and they are a young team, but not good enough to consider them a hard game.

The biggest question is with an upgrade at QB last year, would this team have won 6 or 7 games? If Berglund plays better than Thompson did last year, and with most of the team returning, I would think this team is closer to 7 wins than some of the 4 win predictions on here.

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

.

The biggest question is with an upgrade at QB last year, would this team have won 6 or 7 games? If Berglund plays better than Thompson did last year, and with most of the team returning, I would think this team is closer to 7 wins than some of the 4 win predictions on here.

That's one big if. Also need a pass rush and a better secondary preformance. I will be pleasantly shocked if we beat Rice, but that is also on my unwinnable list.

Look, I get it. This is the time of year everyone forgets everything about the past of this program and believes this upcoming year is THE YEAR. All those years in the Sun Belt and the breathrough never came, yet it's suppose to against better competition? Ok.

Just trying to provide a little reality to the off-season craziness. .

Edited January 28, 2013 by UNT90

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

I'm calling 90 out on this one. I have got a 10 year track record on this board of being anything but a cheerleader. But this notion that a coach isn't meeting messageboard "demands" and that's "the" problem with the program is just stupid and shows that you're not a very good or objective judge of this program.

THE DODGE ERA WAS THE WORST IN SCHOOL HISTORY. That's a fact. No one is contesting it.

He brought in the wrong scheme, the wrong players, and didn't "coach'em up".

Mac is in year two of a complete rebuild. To speak to the school analogy in the other thread it's not about expecting A's and B's, when your kid has been held back a grade level for four years.

There's no amount of message board bitching that is going to make Dodge recruit any bigger, faster, or teach them a new position.

It takes 4 years to clean house for a bottom 10 prgoram, and that's what Mac took over.

Ya, because we shouldn't expect what every other major college football program expects, right? Because our circumstances are so specially dire, right?

Horsecrap.

You get 3 years to turn it around now-a-days in major college football. The 119 rated team from 2010 went to a bowl game this year.

We aren't special in our suffering, just in our refusal to do anything about it.

shaft · January 28, 2013

You get 3 years to turn it around now-a-days in major college football. The 119 rated team from 2010 went to a bowl game this year.

We aren't special in our suffering, just in our refusal to do anything about it.

It takes 4 years to recover from the hole Dodge put the program in. An outlier doesn't dispute the norm, when you start from the bottom it takes longer to turn it around. CFN does a 3-year rankings of teams, which of those teams went from the bottom 10 to back to back bowl games?

UNTexas · January 28, 2013

12-0
C-USA Champs
National Championship W over Ohio St.
Zach Orr wins the Heisman...

UNT subsequently gets invited to the SEC...

+/-1 obviously...

The SEC is unlikely, however, the Dallas Morning News had an article about the Big XII expanding. So the Big XII is probably the reality of the situation. Other than that you are spot on.

GrandGreen · January 28, 2013

I'm calling 90 out on this one. I have got a 10 year track record on this board of being anything but a cheerleader. But this notion that a coach isn't meeting messageboard "demands" and that's "the" problem with the program is just stupid and shows that you're not a very good or objective judge of this program.

THE DODGE ERA WAS THE WORST IN SCHOOL HISTORY. That's a fact. No one is contesting it.

He brought in the wrong scheme, the wrong players, and didn't "coach'em up".

Mac is in year two of a complete rebuild. To speak to the school analogy in the other thread it's not about expecting A's and B's, when your kid has been held back a grade level for four years.

There's no amount of message board bitching that is going to make Dodge recruit any bigger, faster, or teach them a new position.

It takes 4 years to clean house for a bottom 10 prgoram, and that's what Mac took over.

Mac is in year 3 not second. The horrible team he inherited won the same number of fb division games under Dodge/Canales as last year's team.

The biggest problem is that there is no evidence yet that Mac is recruiting any better than Dodge. We hope he is but based on the recruiting ratings and what we have seen on the field, I am not sure how you can support that claim.

No matter about Dodge, who by the way didn't inherent any more than McCarney from his predecessor; it is time for McCarney to show something. There were three new Belt coaches, McCarney's first year and two had great success. Both may have had better personnel but neither team had recent winning records, and neither had the facilities or budget of McCarney.

I think and hope McCarney will have an substantially improved program next year, but if he doesn't make significant progress; he should be gone. No serious program is going to give a coach 4 or 5 years to make a difference no matter what he took over.

Cougar King · January 28, 2013

If McCarney does anything less than 6-6, he should be canned. It's that simple.

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

It takes 4 years to recover from the hole Dodge put the program in. An outlier doesn't dispute the norm, when you start from the bottom it takes longer to turn it around. CFN does a 3-year rankings of teams, which of those teams went from the bottom 10 to back to back bowl games?

Maybe you should take a look at Harry;s thread and see just how many players from the Dodge era were starters last year.If we were so terrible, how can so many Dodge recruits be making such meaninful contributions?

It's just an excuse that we used for Dodge after Dickey and we now see some starting to use for Mac after Dodge. And we wonder why we are so bad. Constantly.

Maybe you should check out San Jose St. on your 3 year standing list, a list I have never seen, by the by.

emmitt01 · January 28, 2013

If he wants to keep his job he will play whoever is the best.

Are you new around here? Let me give you a glimpse into the future. All of the following will be said this year.

"He doesn't have all his own players"

"A coach deserves four years"

"Player X was hurt"

"We can't afford the buyout"

"We were really close in (insert this or that game)...I think we turn the corner in 2014"

"It's a new, tougher, league."

And my personal favorite

"Dodge was so bad that anything better than Dodge is...progress."

This is essentially, "My husband used to be an alcoholic, a womanizer and he beat me....now he just beats me. Ain't he grand?!"

For brevity's sake you can condense them all down to "We're North Texas. We've never seen results so we won't demand them"

Edited January 28, 2013 by emmitt01

emmitt01 · January 28, 2013

It takes 4 years to recover from the hole Dodge put the program in. An outlier doesn't dispute the norm, when you start from the bottom it takes longer to turn it around. CFN does a 3-year rankings of teams, which of those teams went from the bottom 10 to back to back bowl games?

San Jose State

2007

5-7

2008

6-6

2009

2-10

2010

1-11

2011

5-7

So, surely, this team that had gone from flirting with .500 and then gone to the depths of sucking couldn't turn it all the way around...right?

2012

11-2 with a bowl win

"San Jose State is just an anomaly Emmitt. No other team went bowling after a four year run of mediocrity...especially not in a BCS league."

Duke

2012

6-6 regular season (6-7 after bowl loss)

2011

3-9

2010

3-9

2009

5-7 with a win over N.C. Central (whoever that is)

2008

4-8

We're just unique I guess.

golfingomez · January 28, 2013

San Jose State
2007
5-7
2008
6-6
2009
2-10
2010
1-11
2011
5-7
So, surely, this team that had gone from flirting with .500 and then gone to the depths of sucking couldn't turn it all the way around...right?
2012
11-2 with a bowl win
"San Jose State is just an anomaly Emmitt. No other team went bowling after a four year run of mediocrity...especially not in a BCS league."
Duke
2012
6-6 regular season (6-7 after bowl loss)
2011
3-9
2010
3-9
2009
5-7 with a win over N.C. Central (whoever that is)
2008
4-8
We're just unique I guess.

sometimes I have dreams that UNT has had a mediocre run over the past 6 years...

10Eagle10 · January 28, 2013

And this is what is wrong with this football program. We never expect anything.

Well, you get what you ask for.

and yet when I expect 7 wins or heads to roll, you cut me down. the 9 wins is just for fun, in all reality I expect this program to be a bowl team or for there to be change. But to take your agrument 90, if we win 3 games then you can't complain at all, for ANY reason during the 2013 campaign. That means you can't be negative until we've registered our 10th loss (thus condemning us to a guaranteed 2 win season - which is less than three). Worst case scenario: UNT90 isn't allowed to be negative on gmg.com until November (the earliest that we can be guaranteed fewer than his requisite 3 wins) because he expects us to win 3 games. Don't be upset if we meet or exceed expectations, only if we fall short

UNTLifer · January 28, 2013

I'm calling 90 out on this one. I have got a 10 year track record on this board of being anything but a cheerleader. But this notion that a coach isn't meeting messageboard "demands" and that's "the" problem with the program is just stupid and shows that you're not a very good or objective judge of this program.

THE DODGE ERA WAS THE WORST IN SCHOOL HISTORY. That's a fact. No one is contesting it.

He brought in the wrong scheme, the wrong players, and didn't "coach'em up".

Mac is in year two of a complete rebuild. To speak to the school analogy in the other thread it's not about expecting A's and B's, when your kid has been held back a grade level for four years.

There's no amount of message board bitching that is going to make Dodge recruit any bigger, faster, or teach them a new position.

It takes 4 years to clean house for a bottom 10 prgoram, and that's what Mac took over.

Thank you, but don't expect 90 to get it. And emmitt will compare us to Duke, San Jose St., etc... but ever situation is different. I think one of the greatest tragedies was that Dodge didn't have these young men on any kind of strength and coniditioning program. It was so bad, Mac was mistaking DE's for DB's.

MeanGreenTexan · January 28, 2013

Thank you, but don't expect 90 to get it. And emmitt will compare us to Duke, San Jose St., etc... but ever situation is different. I think one of the greatest tragedies was that Dodge didn't have these young men on any kind of strength and coniditioning program. It was so bad, Mac was mistaking DE's for DB's.

Huh?

Don't you remember Aaron Ausmus (for a split second) & Char Gahagan from USC? Everyone was so excited when Dodge started the football-dedicated S&C program. Before that, yes, you were correct. Coach Seroka, who's still here serving as S&C for all other sports, was also the football S&C coach.

UNTnewbie · January 28, 2013

... I think one of the greatest tragedies was that Dodge didn't have these young men on any kind of strength and coniditioning program. It was so bad, Mac was mistaking DE's for DB's.

Dodge was the one that hired Coach Gahagan, the first dedicated North Texas Football Strength & Conditioning Coach, back in 2009. Before 2009, Coach Seroka split time between ALL mens and womens sports team. Dodge actually requested a dedicated strength coach when he was hired but was told the money was not there for that dedicated position.

*****MGT beat me to it!****

Edited January 28, 2013 by UNTnewbie

untjim1995 · January 28, 2013

Berglund is the key--plain and simple. If he can play, and if Jimmerson can stay eligible/healthy, you can move the ball. If Thompson is QB again, its hard to see us being .500. I think the DL will continue to improve and the OL will be solid. IF our QB this past season could actually throw the ball accurately down the field, we would have won at least 2 more games, which would have gotten us to 6-6. But that is the rub--you gotta play with the talent you have available. By almost every single metric, Coach Mac will have the QB he needs to lead his offense.

As for Coach Mac being on the hot seat, the team would have to go 2-10 or worse to get fired with two years left on the contract. Otherwise, he will be here. We couldn't afford to pay off Todd Dodge's last two years of his contract, in part because of the previous coach having been fired with tow years left to go that had to be paid off. BTW, that huge payoff of each of those contract's years were around $250-275k---not exactly big time college football payoffs. Paying off two extra years of Coach Mac's $600k salary would probably force us to hire another high school coach again, just to be able to afford it (I'm kidding--I think). Its just like Benford--they're gonna be here for a while. Unless the record is just Dodge-esque or Trilli-esque in the next few years, we all better get used to both men being our HCs.

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

and yet when I expect 7 wins or heads to roll, you cut me down. the 9 wins is just for fun, in all reality I expect this program to be a bowl team or for there to be change. But to take your agrument 90, if we win 3 games then you can't complain at all, for ANY reason during the 2013 campaign. That means you can't be negative until we've registered our 10th loss (thus condemning us to a guaranteed 2 win season - which is less than three). Worst case scenario: UNT90 isn't allowed to be negative on gmg.com until November (the earliest that we can be guaranteed fewer than his requisite 3 wins) because he expects us to win 3 games. Don't be upset if we meet or exceed expectations, only if we fall short

Come on, now.

You expect your kids to get all A's in school, I would hope. That doesn't mean you ignore reality.

There are 6 winnable games. Hope we win them all.

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

I think one of the greatest tragedies was that Dodge didn't have these young men on any kind of strength and coniditioning program. It was so bad, Mac was mistaking DE's for DB's.

That is just simply untrue.

emmitt01 · January 28, 2013

That is just simply untrue.

Truth is the number one enemy of the apologist.

UNT90 · January 28, 2013

Actually I think Coach Mac did say that in an interview or two.

Of course he did. Doesn't mean it's true. It benefited Coach Mac at the time to make this team seen completely void of talent. He gets off the hook if he goes 1-11 and gets near hero worship if he goes, say, 5-7.

It was very smart coach speak on his part, but coach speak, nonetheless.

Edited January 30, 2013 by UNT90