It is 1995 all over again

Harry · December 14, 2012

Several of you that Im closer with have received the message in this post title as a text from me.

Its time for a realignment history lesson.

First realignment isnt new. In 1962 the WAC formed with two schools from the Border States Conference and four from the Mountain States. Some of those left behind (Colorado State & UTEP) joined them in short order. Some didnt drift through until several decades later (New Mexico State, Utah State, Denver).

1995 was a critical year in realignment. The Southeastern Conference pulled out of the CFA TV deal to make their own contract with CBS. That killed the CFA TV contract and had immediate ramifications.

The Southwest Conference and Big 8 were struggling to keep pace and Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, and Texas Tech joined the Big 8. Southern independents once part of the CFA deal moved quickly to form a new conference (CUSA). The WAC trying to remain viable added six members to grow to 16.

The marketplace continued to change, with the BCS becoming a major factor in decision-making.

While CUSA had taken a good path but the growth of TV revenue coupled with the Big Easts need to preserve their BCS position essentially ended Conference USA. Once Tulane leaves, only Southern Miss will remain as a program that has played every season of CUSA football. The name and logo remains but it isnt the CUSA that formed in 1995.

The WAC clearly took the wrong path. Growing to 16, the revenue received never matched the projections and the geography prevented schools that wanted to play each other from being able to. Breaking those ties hurt gate receipts and fan interest. That lead to the breakaway MWC.

But the MWC was under that same pressure for the BCS access. While Utah leaving was a no-brainer, TCU leaping to the Big East wasnt such a sure bet. Circumstances benefitted TCU who landed in the Big XII but that drive for access sent Boise and San Diego State to the Big East, while TV revenue sent BYU into independence.

Today the TV value once contained in six conferences is now in five. Assuming three tiers of TV deals for each of the major conferences weve moved from 18 significant TV contracts to 15. But the Big 10 and Pac-12 each have a tier of their contract in companies they own, leaving only 13 significant rights packages. That constriction of supply has driven up the price.

From a TV executive standpoint, once you get past the forty or so schools that truly drive a TV audience, the rest of it all starts looking the same.