UNT's 4th yr. mistake still lingers

[Harry]

Let me preface this by saying I have nothing but respect for Todd Dodge and the way he handled the situation he was in at UNT. Unlike Dickey - he left his post with class and dignity. I think we all wish him and his family well at Marble Falls.

The problem is he should have left a year earlier than he did; and I believe had we been able to make that change we would be a much stronger program now - and we wouldn't be leaving the Sun Belt in the manner as it appears that we may this season.

Dodge's record in his first three UNT seasons (2007-10) was 2-10, 1-11, 2-10... Dodge was dismissed in October of 2010 (his 4th season) after going 1-6.

Everyone, including Todd Dodge knew that after year three things were likely not going to turn around. I think Dodge was surprised that UNT granted him the fourth year rather than just pay out his 5-year guaranteed contract and move on. But, either one or some combination of Dr. Bataille and or The Board of Regents chose not to do this, and I don't know if we will ever know exactly why.

Some cite that giving Dodge an additional year would help them put together a more respectable package for the new coach, and allow for a significant increase in assistant salaries which were woefully light. Whatever you think the reason was, one thing is clear. A college football coach cannot recruit quality high school athletes when they know his contract term is not going to be renewed. 7 years of osing football hurts recruiting without a doubt but when parents know a coach will likely not be there for their son's 4-5 university experience they most often will take a pass. After two consecutive losing seasons Dodge was in a hole and he knew that time was not on his side. Especially with UNT's biggest capital expenditure ever - a new stadium - on the horizon.

So Dodge did what any other coach would do in that situation, he sold out juco. Unfortunately when he rolled the dice it was UNT's chips on the craps table. Dodge thought if he didn't win in 2009 (year 3) he would be gone...so in his 2009 signing class out of 21 he signed 8, again almost half of the entire class. Then, likely surprised that he was being given a pass for year 4 out of 22 signees 10 were jucos, again almost 50% of the entire class.

This is - in my opinion - the MAIN reason we are struggling as a program right now. As Tasty and others point out, it's certainly not the ONLY reason.

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[H-towngreen]

We still aren't at our full scholly level, thanks to the Juco's, players leaving under Dodge, and the APR issue. That is killer.

[wardly]

In Darrel's defense, he thought based upon his 4 conference championships he deserved another year, as opposed to Dodge, who had to be susprised when he got one.

[DallasGreen]

As Dandy Don once said if ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. Still doesn't address the success at ULM, UTSA, WKU and others who were in just as bad or worse shape a year ago, but don't have to endure three years of losses before they competed

[Marty]

Great post Harry!

[THOR]

utsa is experiencing loses and lowering attendance now that they are playing real division one teams

[oldguystudent]

Harry, now you're just tossing is slow pitch softballs.

[GL2Greatness]

utsa is experiencing loses and lowering attendance now that they are playing real division one teams

you must be pretty far down in the dumps if you are using a program that is in their second year of playing football at any level ever and that still has better attendance as a comparison....it is not like they dropped down for a few years, dropped the program for 15 years, or played at DIII for several decades.....they started from nothing and they were invited to one conference (the WAC) a year earlier than expected and then when it folded they were invited to the same conference that north Texas has wanted to be in for a decade or more.....before they had played a single D1-A team and their attendance average for the season will still be as good or better than many of the top single game attendance marks for north Texas

[Texas Stranger]

you must be pretty far down in the dumps if you are using a program that is in their second year of playing football at any level ever and that still has better attendance as a comparison....it is not like they dropped down for a few years, dropped the program for 15 years, or played at DIII for several decades.....they started from nothing and they were invited to one conference (the WAC) a year earlier than expected and then when it folded they were invited to the same conference that north Texas has wanted to be in for a decade or more.....before they had played a single D1-A team and their attendance average for the season will still be as good or better than many of the top single game attendance marks for north Texas

Hey, look who's rushing in to defend UTSA (again). Just a coincidence, right ?

[GrandGreen]

Why would anyone want to give Dickey another year? He should have been fired years before, anybody that follows football should have recognized he was not building anything.

Just because Dodge should have never been close to a college hc job and was a total failure had nothing to do with the Dickey termination. The Dodge hire was just an awful risk that backfired about as bad as it could, but IMO I rather have a totally unequipped Dodge running the program than someone that seemed to take every opportunity to tear down the school and than seemed to be mystified that he couldn't recruit.

Enter McCarney which has substantially more resources than any of his predecessors. Far to early to truly evaluate but just as he has certainly proved that he is more capable to be a hc than any coach since NT move back to fbc status, likewise he has not proven he is the answer.

The issue with McCarney is that he has not proven despite super effort that he can significantly improve NT recruiting. He is not redshirting a lot of freshmen because he is stockpiling players that would make absolutely no sense. Highly more likely they are just not ready to play. Anyone with a grain of impartiality, is not going to be overwhelmed with his recruiting efforts thus far.

Keeping Dodge that extra year and loading up with jucos didn't help the program but I am still not sure that is a big factor. McCarney made a decision to go primary with high schoolers which cost NT numbers and maybe a few games. Nothing wrong with going with a long term approach but it was McCarney's choice to do so.

Edited October 30, 2012 by GrandGreen

[MeanGreenHoops]

Sorry don't buy this post. We have 8, if you count Bellazin, starters from Dodge's last recruiting class including our two best players Chancellor and Orr.

We should have let Dodge go, but we didn't but that's not really hurting us. What's hurting us, is that the first two recruiting classes under McCarney are not bringing in immediate impact players. Normally with a new coach there is a new ability to bring in better recruits because you have something to sell. Add on to that, new stadium and you'd think we'd be doing better.

[TIgreen01]

Enough with all the excuses. The only REAL excuse Mac needs is the schedule. The similarities between what he is doing and what JJ did with our basketball program are obvious. He's NOT able to land enough impact players out of high school, but his connections around the country are helping him land solid transfers who will be impact players at the Sun Belt/CUSA level. Call it JUCO, call it transfers....whatever. The goal is the same. UNT has trouble getting top ranked kids out of high school because we have absolutely sucked since 2004.

JJ hardly ever did much better than .500 in Sun Belt play, but was able to pad our record in OOC. That's easier to do with basketball scheduling than football....either way, over time, we were able to claim that we were a "winner" and we eventually landed Jordan Williams and Chris Jones. Mac's going to have to try to get us to 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 for a few years to prove that we can "win" here, OR have some of these transfers (<cough>Berglund<cough>) turn out to be program changers.

Edited October 30, 2012 by TIgreen01

[Green P1]

Sorry don't buy this post. We have 8, if you count Bellazin, starters from Dodge's last recruiting class including our two best players Chancellor and Orr.

We should have let Dodge go, but we didn't but that's not really hurting us. What's hurting us, is that the first two recruiting classes under McCarney are not bringing in immediate impact players. Normally with a new coach there is a new ability to bring in better recruits because you have something to sell. Add on to that, new stadium and you'd think we'd be doing better.

FACT

[shaft]

Really, you think football is like basketball? And just one "impact" player will make all the difference?

This isn't playstation. These aren't excuses. This is a real assessment of where this team is, how it got here, and it is going to take real work to get the team where everyone wants it.

This where someone will say something like just winning takes care of itself and will miss the point of thread entirely.

Edited October 30, 2012 by shaft

[TIgreen01]

Really, you think football is like basketball? And just one "impact" player will make all the difference?

This isn't playstation. These aren't excuses. This is a real assessment of where this team is, how it got here, and it is going to take real work to get the team where everyone wants it.

This where someone will say something like just winning takes care of itself and will miss the point of thread entirely.

Has Mac brought in just one transfer??

The fact is that he's got transfers/JUCOs at QB, RB, WR, DB, OL already on the roster or practice squad waiting for eligibility. I imagine he feels pretty good with our LBer depth, and possibly our DL (though I don't see how)....but he's bringing guys in at nearly every position. Not a ton...he's doing most of his team building through high school recruiting. But he looks to be finding difference makers in transfers and Jucos. Whether they pan out or not, we will see. JJ had a pretty good track record of success with these guys. To me, it looks like Mac is trying to do the same.

[GreenN'walinsVet]

Really, you think football is like basketball? And just one "impact" player will make all the difference?

This isn't playstation. These aren't excuses. This is a real assessment of where this team is, how it got here, and it is going to take real work to get the team where everyone wants it.

This where someone will say something like just winning takes care of itself and will miss the point of thread entirely.

At the QB position yes it does. Give me one sun belt team that has made national waves over the past few years that hasn't had a Gamechanger at QB? If your QB can make plays it changes everything. Ask Auburn. Decent team for years, Cam Newton comes in they get a National Championship, he leaves and they get hammered at home by Texas AM.

Yes 1 player doesn't instantly make everything better but at the right position they can mask multiple problems.

[Travis Scott]

Good post Harry. I don't take your analysis as excuses. We have had a culture of losing for almost a decade which will take time to correct. We are 6-3 at home, in front of our students and alumni, since Mac took over against our CURRENT peer group of teams...from Houston to Texas Southern. I don't reaslistically believe that LSU and KSU are peers right now. Do I want them to be?...you bet. I believe we are changing the culture at home and have the chance to pick up 2 more wins this season at Apogee. Taking that winning culture on the road is obviously a huge challenge for this team to overcome. Reducing the bodybag games will help since we never host those type of games.

Every conference game, in the Sun Belt or CUSA, should be a winnable game...at home or on the road. Bottom line, we have to play better and I think we will as more Mac recruits get on to the field.

[SilverEagle]

Does anyone know how "transfers vs Jucos" have panned out for other established (and successful) programs? Just off the top of my head, we've had a mixed bag of impact players in this catagory.

Vidal Carlin-Juco (our most successful Juco QB ever)

John Love- Juco

Cedric Hardeman-transfer

David Kervin-Juco

Sears Woods-transfer (the hero of the Tennessee game)

Jordan Case-transfer

Tony Elliott-transfer

Nathan Williams-juco

Rex Johnson-Juco

Brian Smith-juco

Kevin Galbreath-juco

[CurveItAround]

I hope we eventually get to the point that our O-line and D-line and maybe even LBs are all redshirt juniors and/or 5th year seniors. These guys could use another 20-30 pounds of mass across the board. That takes time in the weight room. Visually, our guys look small in comparison. One of my guests at the ULL game even made the comment that our defense looked like the size of a high school team. I wouldn't go that far, but the size difference is noticeable in many areas. We are not typically able to recruit the players out of HS that already have the size so they need all the time they can get in the weight room. On the surface, it seems like Coach Mac is trying to redshirt when possible. Let's just hope it's not just about lack of ability.

Skill/speed players are not always just about size so their situations can be a little different.

[NT03]

The risk of JUCO signings > http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1429044

*edited title

Edited October 30, 2012 by NT03

[CurveItAround]

At some of the top programs their lineups have plenty of players that are in their 3/4/5 year out of high school. I have never really seen the problem with using JUCOs to fill in the gaps when the HS recruits don't develop or you need to fill an immediate need. A JUCO transfer has up to three years with your program (see Bynes) so there is time to get value. Everything in moderation.

[stryker]

Excellent post. I have said that UNT made a huge mistake giving Dodge that fourth season when it was apparent he was never going to get it going. Doing so would've allowed the new coach to at least lay a foundation during the final years at Fouts before opening Apogee. Instead, the worst possible scenario occurred. Dodge was fired midseason and UNT had to open a new stadium with another rebuilding project.

[TheTastyGreek]

JUCO's work for some teams > http://footballrecru...asp?CID=1429044

I love you, brother... But that's not really a good example.

If you want to compare how a desperate coach going all-in with JUCOs in a last ditch effort to save his job with immediate wins can set a program back years... You should really look at... Kansas State.

2008: Ron Prince dodges execution, signs 19 JUCO players. Team goes 5-7, Prince is fired. Because of the JUCO all-in, K-State would not return to a full 85 scholarship roster until THIS SEASON.

2009: Bill Snyder takes over, struggles to a 4-6 finish (including an OOC loss to Ricky Bustle's Louisiana-Lafayette, which beat Snyder by 2 at Cajun Field and Todd Dodge by 4 points at the same place) against D-1A opponents.

Two wins against D-1AA teams Tennessee Tech and UMass. UMass finished the season 5-6, 3-5 in the CAA. UMass lost to Hofstra, Richmond, and Delaware by multiple touchdowns. Snyder's team won by 4 points in the home opener.

Four wins against D-1 opponents, including a one point win against Iowa State, a seven point win over Kansas, and a 20-6 win over Colorado. The only non-home victory K-State had that year was against Iowa State... In Kansas City.

Average margin of defeat against Big 12 opponents? 26 points. They beat 1-AA teams and, generally speaking, squeaked past some bad teams (not all... witness ULL). When they lost, they usually got pounded.

2010: Snyder goes 7-6. One of those games was a 1-AA. Four of the D-1A wins come by 9 points or less. Two of them required 4th quarter comebacks. The only win Snyder had that year that came outside the state of Kansas happened at... Fouts Field. I think most people here have the context on that win.

So, why did Bill Snyder come in and fail to take a 5-7 team beyond 6-6 or 7-6? Was he a lousy coach? Did he not know how to win at a place like K-State? I think we can safely conclude those weren't the reasons.

His explanation (prior to starting the 2011 season)?

Snyder believes the Wildcats have more depth across the board than each of the past two seasons, even though they are well under the NCAA scholarship limit.

They were still under a full load of scholarship players in 2011, but Snyder did manage to take a big step forward in his 3rd year with a 10-3 record (7-2 in the Big 12).

This year, still undefeated and ranked #2.

Anyone who says JUCOs can't help you win is blind or stupid. I wish McCarney would be a little more flexible in using them (judiciously).

Anyone who doesn't think an outgoing coach going on a fringe JUCO binge can't cripple a program's rebuilding effort... Well, tell it to Bill Snyder. Took him 2 full years to get competitive again.

[CurveItAround]

It seems like the influx of JUCOS in the last couple of years did some of the damage, but there had to be a lot of players that just left the program as well to put us in this mess. I am going to try to put some scholarship related data together for DD vs TD vs DM.

[NT03]

Oh I know it's not a great example & im certaintley not trying to compare the 2 , just sharing the article

I think Mac just needs to be more open on getting a few to help out , which it now looks he is willing too

I believe he stated when he got the job that JUCOs were not a option. To me , that limits a already limited field on what types of kids we can land here