Why is everyone so down?

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Save for the four year stretch under Dickey, we're really no better or worse than we have been since we reentered D-IA/FBS Land.

Hooray!

I post this because over the years, I've tired of showing examples of schools who have turned it around in, yes, one or two years. I've finally just resigned myself to the fact that it won't happen here.

Predicted 5-7, said I wouldn't be surprised by 4-8. If we get no defensive line help, we should expect 4-8s and 5-7s and 3-9s for many years to come.

Hey...at least we're consistent.

[meangreener]

  On 10/29/2012 at 2:36 AM, The Fake Lonnie Finch said:

Save for the four year stretch under Dickey, we're really no better or worse than we have been since we reentered D-IA/FBS Land.

Hooray!

I post this because over the years, I've tired of showing examples of schools who have turned it around in, yes, one or two years. I've finally just resigned myself to the fact that it won't happen here.

Predicted 5-7, said I wouldn't be surprised by 4-8. If we get no defensive line help, we should expect 4-8s and 5-7s and 3-9s for many years to come.

Hey...at least we're consistent.

[wardly]

I would not expect us to be down "for many more years", but at least another two. The only teams in the "New "2013 CUSA we could beat this year are FIU,So.Miss,UAB,UTSA,and maybe UTEP.Its going to take 4to5 years to clean up the mess Mac was handed.

[meangreener]

  On 10/29/2012 at 2:53 AM, wardly said:

I would not expect us to be down "for many more years", but at least another two. The only teams in the "New "2013 CUSA we could beat this year are FIU,So.Miss,UAB,UTSA,and maybe UTEP.Its going to take 4to5 years to clean up the mess Mac was handed.

Yeah, we can't make a quick turnaround like ULM, WKU, Kent State, ULL, Arkansas State, Ohio...the list goes on and on...

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

I half-way agree with both of you...but, the only reason is that we hired a guy out of high school, which was almost unprecedented.

Also, throw Tulsa into your list. The Tulsa of my law school days was threatening to take the program D-IAA. Then, the hired Kragthorpe and....

Nevermind. As always, we're special case.

[TheTastyGreek]

  On 10/29/2012 at 2:54 AM, meangreener said:

Yeah, we can't make a quick turnaround like ULM, WKU, Kent State, ULL, Arkansas State, Ohio...the list goes on and on...

ULM made a quick turnaround? Remind me again when they've ever had a winning season in D-1 football? Spoiler alert: if they finish above .500 this season, it'll be the first time they've done it in TWENTY YEARS. Never at the 1-A level. And remind me how their coach did in years one and two of his tenure there?

Ohio had a quick turnaround? As in, one winning season in Solich's first four years?

Louisiana Lafayette? The team that's 4-3, .500 in conference, that we just beat 2 weeks ago?

If we had WKU's Willie Taggart here, we'd have run him out of town after he got blown out at home by 4 touchdowns by a lousy 1-AA team. In year two.

When we hired Dodge, I hoped he'd turn us around as fast as Rick Stockstill did at MTSU. And after that quick start, Stockstill has had 4 sub .500 seasons and only one other decent year. He went 2-10 last year.

If we'd had to pick a coach to clone for ourselves at the start of last year, it probably would have been Cristobal at FIU. This year, they're 1-8 and 0-5 in conference.

There's lots of reasons to be skeptical about our future under McCarney. Not fast enough doesn't come anywhere near the top of the list.

[TheTastyGreek]

Not trying to defend McCarney... He wasn't my first choice for this hire, but I do think he was a pretty solid pick and I think he's actually doing surprisingly well.

One of two things is true: Either we're a good team being held back... Games like Kansas State, the ULL comeback, the MTSU blowout last year, etc. are our true ability level, and games like what we saw yesterday are signs that our coaches aren't up to the task.

Or...

We aren't a very good team. We don't have the talent and ability to win consistently, and we're getting coached up to play at the level we see in our good/encouraging games.

I think the second one is more accurate. Agree or not, that's my opinion. I thought we were probably a 3 or 4 win team last year, but somehow we won 5. I came into this year thinking we were probably a 4-8 team, and unfortunately, that seems to be about where we're going to end up.

Like I said, I think there's plenty to be concerned about. Specifically... The question of who is getting recruited to come in and lift our talent level up to the point where we aren't getting coached above our ability to get to 5 or 6 wins. That's what worries me.

But pointing at other programs that may or may not be flukes, abberations, or crazy ass luck (or, more often, that don't exactly prove the point and timetable some people presume they do) as a reason to say we have coaching problems... Not buying it, personally.

[MeanGreenMusic]

  On 10/29/2012 at 3:42 AM, TheTastyGreek said:

Not buying it, personally.

Could not agree with you more sir. Two GREAT posts.

[meanJewGreen]

Heck it took JJ five years to build our bball program

[TheTastyGreek]

  On 10/29/2012 at 4:11 AM, meanJewGreen said:

Heck it took JJ five years to build our bball program

JJ had us above .500 in year one. In his entire tenure, we were only below .500 twice, and they were years 2 and 3.

Every 6-8 weeks... Something else pops up and I just keep missing that guy more and more. He really may have been one of a kind in this day and age of college basketball.

[casual fan]

Building a consistent winner from a consistent loser isn't easy.

Having a good year or two doesn't quite make a consistent winner.

Getting on the juco recruiting treadmill doesn't build a consistent winner.

When we can get back to having our full allotment of scholarships along with 3 or 4 solid recruiting classes and several 5th year seniors, then we will be in a position to become a consistent winner.

I don't know if McCarney will lead us to the promise land, but he won't leave us in the same mess that he inherited.

Give him time and let him recruit and develop his players.

[TheTastyGreek]

  On 10/29/2012 at 3:46 AM, MeanGreenMusic said:

Could not agree with you more sir. Two GREAT posts.

Don't get me wrong... I'm not saying we're going to conquer the world in football or anything like that. Someone Who Shall Remain Anonymous sent me a PM asking me to explain this comment:

  On 10/29/2012 at 3:31 AM, TheTastyGreek said:

There's lots of reasons to be skeptical about our future under McCarney.

So I may as well elaborate publicly lest anyone think I'm expecting everything to be hunky dory in the world of Mean Green football.

I think McCarney and our staff last year and this year have us performing better than our talent would otherwise dictate. Not by leaps and bounds, and definitely not across the board... I think the inconsistency from game to game (or half to half, or series to series) is obvious proof of that. But notably, and frequently. And I think there are results of that in the Win/Loss record. I thought we were probably a 2-4 win team last year, and we got 5 wins. I'm still amazed by that. Not great, but greatly above my expectations of what was likely to happen. This year... I thought we were probably going to end up 4-8. Looks like we might sneak one more win than that, maximum, at this point. Probably not.

I think a good coach has to do two things:

1) They need to be able to plan, motivate, _insert adjective_, a.k.a. COACH their talent to perform at or above their ability relative to the opponent. I think that's already happened here, and will continue to happen here.

2) They need to be able to consistently attract, retain, and develop talent at a level that allows for growth/improvement (when even overachievement is unacceptable in terms of results) or sustainability (when winning at a level or rate that is unusually high given the sport/resources/competitive situation).

That second one... That's the one to worry about.

When you can turn a 3 win team into a 5 win team... That's nice. But it's still a 5 win team. And coaching above your level to a level that isn't very good... Isn't very good. (Recursive logic is fun!)

The question is, has/is/will McCarney and company attract and retain talent that, for lack of a better phrasing... OUGHT to win 6-7-8 games? Because honestly, I don't think last year was a 6+ win team, and I didn't and don't think this was a 7+ win team. But making a bad team mediocre isn't enough if you can't bring in a mediocre team (and coach them to a respectable record) or bring in a good team and coach them to be exceptional.

If you're recruiting a team that looks to have 4-5 win talent, then even when you coach brilliantly, your ceiling is probably 6-7 wins. And I'm not saying that our recent and upcoming recruiting looks like we're only a 4-5 win team in terms of base talent... But that seems a lot likelier to me than assuming that Mac is bringing in a roster inherently capable of winning 7-8-9 games based on talent.

[oldguystudent]

While I'm certainly guilty of some short-term beer fueled outbursts and frustrations in the heat of the moment, I see no reason that we should go creating the Dan MacCarney futility equivalency list. 8-12 right now. .400 ball. Not where we want to be, but slowly getting there.

[UNT90]

  On 10/29/2012 at 3:42 AM, TheTastyGreek said:

Not trying to defend McCarney... He wasn't my first choice for this hire, but I do think he was a pretty solid pick and I think he's actually doing surprisingly well.

One of two things is true: Either we're a good team being held back... Games like Kansas State, the ULL comeback, the MTSU blowout last year, etc. are our true ability level, and games like what we saw yesterday are signs that our coaches aren't up to the task.

Or...

We aren't a very good team. We don't have the talent and ability to win consistently, and we're getting coached up to play at the level we see in our good/encouraging games.

I think the second one is more accurate. Agree or not, that's my opinion. I thought we were probably a 3 or 4 win team last year, but somehow we won 5. I came into this year thinking we were probably a 4-8 team, and unfortunately, that seems to be about where we're going to end up.

Like I said, I think there's plenty to be concerned about. Specifically... The question of who is getting recruited to come in and lift our talent level up to the point where we aren't getting coached above our ability to get to 5 or 6 wins. That's what worries me.

But pointing at other programs that may or may not be flukes, abberations, or crazy ass luck (or, more often, that don't exactly prove the point and timetable some people presume they do) as a reason to say we have coaching problems... Not buying it, personally.

OR we are just a young team. Young teams are VERY inconsistent, especially on the road. Take away the top 2 receivers, and what happened at MTSU really isn't that surprising.

People get emotional after losses, especially when we have been losing for sO long. Understandable. But this team is about where we all thought it would be at the beginning of the season, when we were unemotional with our predictions.

[NT03]

  On 10/29/2012 at 12:39 PM, UNT90 said:

OR we are just a young team. Young teams are VERY inconsistent, especially on the road. Take away the top 2 receivers, and what happened at MTSU really isn't that surprising.

People get emotional after losses, especially when we have been losing for sO long. Understandable. But this team is about where we all thought it would be at the beginning of the season, when we were unemotional with our predictions.

I can't buy the young excuse On this game

MTSU had 7 starters who were freshman or sophomores , as did we. Both teams started 15 junior or senior players *

* this isn't counting PK/P

I get what you are saying about playing on the road and having to learn how to win important games for young teams

I didn't expect to beat MTSU , but also didn't expect us to look like a Todd Dodge team out there. I think that's what is most frustrating. We got blown out by a middle of the pack Sunbelt team who was without 2 of their star players

Edited October 29, 2012 by NT03

[Cougar King]

  On 10/29/2012 at 12:39 PM, UNT90 said:

OR we are just a young team. Young teams are VERY inconsistent, especially on the road. Take away the top 2 receivers, and what happened at MTSU really isn't that surprising.

This is true but at the same time cannot be used as an excuse. Hell, we have a lot of freshmen and sophomores starting, yet we are still in a position to possibly win C-USA. It all comes down to coaching in the end.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Cougar King

[NT03]

Just Win the next 2 and this place will be rocking again.

I've always compared my drug addictions to being a UNT fan. So many highs and lows in your life. Way more low points , but when you are at the top and things are going well it's the best feeling in the world

[GrayEagle]

  On 10/29/2012 at 1:14 PM, NT03 said:

I can't buy the young excuse On this game

MTSU had 7 starters who were freshman or sophomores , as did we. Both teams started 15 junior or senior players *

* this isn't counting PK/P

I get what you are saying about playing on the road and having to learn how to win important games for young teams

I didn't expect to beat MTSU , but also didn't expect us to look like a Todd Dodge team out there. I think that's what is most frustrating. We got blown out by a middle of the pack Sunbelt team who was without 2 of their star players

Great post. My only objection would be that I expected to win this one. Middle had the worst defense in the conference going in but they stacked eight and forced us to pass which we couldn't do effectively. Our improving defense lost it somewhere and the game was over in the first quarter.

And, I realize that your later post was sarcasm because it's been what...like eight years since we won two in a row? But, we are facing another golden opportunity to right the ship and we'll no doubt come up short on that as well; as we did against Troy, Houston, and the MUTS.

[Dr. Seuss]

First off MTSU lost there starting running back for the season, and who in which was their entire offense.. Us not having Brelan and Delgado levels the playing field... I'm not buying losing our 2 wide receivers hurt us more than them losing Cunningham

Second they out played us and were not that good, and won't be until we have a more consistent QB... I don't know if Derek is afraid to get hit or what, but he never sits in the pocket and reads the defense and steps into his throw. I mean you've only been sacked a handful of times all season and your throwing off your back foot 4/5 passes...

[wardly]

We are a middle of the pack Sunbelt team at best. We are a little above FAU,FIU,and USA,and on par with ULL and Troy. We certainly are not as good as MTSU,W.K.,La.Monroe, and probably A.State. It would appear we will be 3&5 in conference,which would put us where we were picked preseason,7th.W.K. and La. Monroe did not build their programs over night, and neither will we.The new coach at A-State inherited a good team from Freeze, who went on to Old Miss. Compare that to what Dodge left Mac. Our new stadium did not give us a recruiting advantage, but did level the playing field. We need to look past our last 2 years in the Belt,and first 2 years in CUSA,which probably won't be much better. This is a 5 year project. While we might not like it, we need to accept it,support the program, and if success comes sooner so much the better.Just an old man's opinion, class of 66'.

[jimbob]

This team is just not prepared to play at the start of the game. We have a defensive backfield that can't cover anyone until after the half when they've been told what's going on. We have a QB that starts slow and is terrible when he can't build momentum. On top of that, the coaching staff can't seem to change in any way during the first half or when the QB is having trouble. I'd say Mac is more stubborn that bad.

[NM Green]

The team was not awake for a half. The energy level on each team was ridiculously evident. I just bothers me that two of our losses are against top 5 teams in the country that we played better against and with more heart.

That's coaching, right! Why was my team not as fired up as the other on Saturday.

GMG

[casual fan]

Wardly you make a good point. Coaches leave for various reasons, but what they leave behind has an affect on the next coach. For example, if a talented team is racked with injuries and underperforms, the next coach may look like a turnaround genius. But, if a perennially losing team has very little talent left over and is saddled with a loss of scholarships, the next coach had better be a miracle worker.

We are getting back up on par with scholarships. Our talent level is improving and should take a bit if a jump next year. A sudden turnaround may happen and McCarney may be called a miracle worker. However, it may suddenly happen a year or two down the road.

[untjim1995]

I agree with Tasty and wardly alot in this thread. I, too, posted often last season that if Coach Mac got us to 5 or more wins in Year 1 of his tenure, that he should be Coach of the Year in the SBC. He did it, somehow, but didn't get the COY award. This year, I figured we would be a 4-5 win team and that is where we should end up. Next year, even with CUSA being a tough league than the SBC usually, I suspect that we will get to 6 wins or more. Then, you get to 2014 and I think you are working on 7+ wins. What Coach Mac needs, obviously, is for Berglund to win the QB job and get his stuff together to actually be the QB many thought he would be coming out of HS. And then, quite honestly, this team will be only improve if its lines get bigger and better. Nothing else will do it, especially if you are going to run Dickey-ball, which I think he is only doing now out of necessity.

The only other thought that keeps running through my mind, though, about our lack of success is this. Can you win here? I don't really think the three Dickey years in the early SBC can count as big-time success, since we mostly sucked in OOC games and then went back to being typical UNT again after that run. Maybe this is just not a place that you can win at. Granted, there doesn't seem to be any valid reason to believe this, but maybe there are just so many barriers that have been created over the decades to never really allow for a sustainable successful football program. You have to admit that since Fry was roaming the sidelines in Denton, we have done just about everything wrong as a university until fairly recently. We hired poorly (including two HS football coaches to become our HFC), we let our team play in decrepit facilites for decades, we kept alumni from really even being able to donate decently to the AD, we dropped off the face of the earth when we went down to i-aa and stayed there for 12 years, we never got to play in a league with teams that Metroplex fans and media care about, and we really have never had a strong connection to the residents of the city where we are located. It may just be a reality that none of us want to accept or admit could be the truth--that you just can't win here, with what we pay and with the cultural and historical issues that are at play here at UNT.

[meangreanmick]

I don't think this is rocket science. We are exposed to teams that can pass the ball because we have a young secondary and no pass rush. We are fairy well coached and when we face 1 dimensional teams, we can do OK (K State, LSU, ULL). When we face teams that are effective passing teams (Houston, MTSU, etc), we will struggle defensively. Alot also hinges on us being able to effectively run the ball and control the game. If we can't run and move the ball, we risk further exposing our defense.

I usually laugh out loud when I see those on hear telling everyone that they don't except losing and they demand winning --- and they helpfully point out to us that if we actually understand why we struggle and at least look for some of the positives signs, that we are accepting losing and we are part of the problem. News flash, just because you demand winning doesn't suddenly turn this team into a more talented athletic team than they actually are.

I am very confident and encouraged with what McCarney has done and more importantly how he has done it. No matter what happens in the next 2-3 years, the program will be in a much better place than when Dan arrived and on an upward trend. I would rather build a solid base like he is doing than be a flash in the pan - someone list out for me the teams that went from 2-10 to a winning record in two years and kept on winning for THE NEXT 6 YEARS.

Edited October 29, 2012 by meangreanmick