Trying to put the MUTS game in perspective

outoftown · October 28, 2012

First of, forgive me if this is a lengthy post.

So 10 days after a great second half that brought us the coolest win since the dickey era, we loose a game at MUTS, clearly our worst effort on the season, we loose chancellor for the season and are down 31-0 shortly after the beginning of the second half. It goes without saying... I am extremely frustrated.

The role of the players:

It was sure really bad that Delgado was suspended (i sure would like to know what for), and it is absolutely devastating to see chancellor injured. That said, It took the players some time to create a reaction. Harris dropped his first 2 passes before he started catching some. I was pleasantly surprised by darnell smith, and bynes also stepped up. The O-line played way below it's usual standards of the season though. I do not undersstand why MUTS gets 3 more sacks than LSU, Houston, Troy and ULL combined. The D-Line could not get going the hole day, their QB rarely felt any heat, and this left a young and vulnerable secondary out covering receivers too long. We totally missed the first half of a game for the second time in a row. This game as a whole was particularly frustrating because both offense and defense had a terrible day (or at least first half) and there were really very few bright spots (the ones I remember I already named)

Coaching: I would like to separate this into 2 parts: in game coaching and practice and game plan coaching. Let me start with the latter: Looking at the individual skills of players it seems clear to me that on an individual basis the players are improving fast. We are takling how we are supposed to, we are bigger and stronger, than since I watch this program, fundamentals on both lines seem to get better. Even special teams has made some advancements from a bad start. So while I can not see the practices, I do trust the staff in that part with maybe the excption of... quarterback play. I honestly don't know if we have a coach that is really effective at helping the development of our QBs along. If we do, the staff sure has hidden it this year, seeing as DT is the only QB they put out there and he just does not seem to be improving the fundamentals. Sadly enough this is an important excepetion seing that QB is kind of the most important position in Football and whatnot.

The second part is in-game managment, and I am way less impressed there. Some have called last weeks game calling genious, but I don't share that assessment. The defensive play calling in the second half was great, props to skladany. But on offense there were only about 2 strokes of genious (one the screen pass Jimmerson makes a TD out of), the rest was very Vanilla and we got back into the game against ULL because the team outhustled and outplayed them at every turn. If your team plays well play calling is easy. We are not good at in game play calling on the offensive side. Some people say that McCarney is stubborn and this is the good kind of stubborn. I got trouble agreeing to this with respect to game calling. When I think of how ULM beat arkansas, I don't think they had managed that had he coached Berrys team. I don't need to see loads of passes, but I would like to see some guts not only from the players but also frome the coaches. The fact that we found out that Smith can catch, and that Bynes also does a decent job of it when you throw him the rock more than one time a game makes me wonder why it took a suspension and an injury for us to find this out. Might we not have benefitted from trying different options to see who is a 'gamer' among our WRs earlier in the season, and spreading the wealth a bit more so our game breakers get more space? And also so we have a plan b when one of them goes down? This makes me ask the question whether the decision to not give Osborn a chance is justified by his practice performance.

The season so far: We have been a just below average team, pretty much middle of the road. That is an improvement over where we were 2 yearsago, but stagnation compared to last year. Both Defense and offense have played good at times, but there has only been 1 half when both sides really hit their stride at the same time. Both (offense more than defense) are prone to light and shadow performances. Thus both sides clearly have potential, but are often not capable of performing at their level. It makes me wonder what our team does for mental training. Maybe Football could take a page out of coach Benfords book? I think this needs to be adressed like every other aspect of the game. Some people tell me this is the normal thing and to be expected by a young team, and will get better with time. This youth thing does sound like a somewhat lame excuse to me. It is not like the teams we play against are full of 30 year olds. Aso: some of our most inconsitent players are not underclassmen.

The remainder of this season:

Some people have acted as if the season is over after this game. I tend to disagree. It is one game early for that assessment. A win over AkState and people will hurry back to say that at 4 and 5 a win over USA is proabable and then we got 2 cahnces to go bowling. I guess the coaching staff did not really have a plan for what to do without chancellor. The week now should give them the chance to regroup and plan for that, and there is a decent probability that they are gonne find a few packages they had not thought of, when having chancellor at their disposition, and those will be hard for AkState to game plan for.

next season: My outlook for next season is actually quite positive: we are gonna get a lot of players onto the roster that are not yet for different reasons, and that will probably be good contirbutors: Stojkovic Chancellor and Teegarden should be back, several highly touted transfers including possibly a QB that will really help us, and we loose relatively few key players. Even if not all of those pan out, this should still accumulate to a really good help.

Also as i said I do see improvment in our physical abilities and players fundamentals, and I trust this will keep up and put many a team in a position where they will have a hard time beating us, even if they have superior game managment.

Also for us to go into CUAS is great for financial, geographical and rivalry reasons, but competition wise this is not gonna be a big step upwards: there are gonna be a lot of very winnable games. we are in adivision with UTEP, Tulane, Rice and UTSA after all. As the status is now, we should really win all 4 of those and then build on the rest. The OOC schedule is one of the best in terms of opportunities (real ones) we had in a long time. So I believe that our team will be better and have a schedule that sets it up for success as it has never had since coming to D1. This leaves me rather optimisitic for 2013. If we should fail with that though, then the coaching team will have to be held accountable.

Please feel free to agree or disagree.

Edited October 28, 2012 by outoftown

GL2Greatness · October 28, 2012

some teams get better over the length of the season and some teams wear down and break down over the lenght of the season....the next couple of games will say where this team is

some teams can make better use of an extended break to rest up and heal while some teams use that extended break to get rusty and out of rhythm

I don't see counting on the implementation of "new packages" because one of your better players went down 8 games into the season as being something to bank on....it is not like this is a team filled with 4 and 5 star players chomping at the bit to get on the field because another 4 or 5 star starter went down and whe you are 3-5 and just came off a horrible game I am not sure that is the time for "something new" based on losing one of your better players to injury

why exactly do you expect to beat Rice and UTEP.....the fact that Rice stopmed north Texas in 2008 and beat north Texas in 2010 as well?

and while UTEP is not that good they have had about double the total number of wins over the last decade against better competition overall and in a much better conference

Edited October 28, 2012 by GL2Greatness

outoftown · October 29, 2012

some teams get better over the length of the season and some teams wear down and break down over the lenght of the season....the next couple of games will say where this team is

I cannot be sure, but I do hope that last year is an indication, which would bode well for not breaking down.

some teams can make better use of an extended break to rest up and heal while some teams use that extended break to get rusty and out of rhythm

Clearly our team did not take well to the extended break

I don't see counting on the implementation of "new packages" because one of your better players went down 8 games into the season as being something to bank on....it is not like this is a team filled with 4 and 5 star players chomping at the bit to get on the field because another 4 or 5 star starter went down and whe you are 3-5 and just came off a horrible game I am not sure that is the time for "something new" based on losing one of your better players to injury

No, we don't have loads of 4 to 5 stars starters, but at least it should be tough to know what we are gonna do passwise for AkState, cause the personell on some of the looks is hard to predict from what they got on film.

why exactly do you expect to beat Rice and UTEP.....the fact that Rice stopmed north Texas in 2008 and beat north Texas in 2010 as well?

and while UTEP is not that good they have had about double the total number of wins over the last decade against better competition overall and in a much better conference

Well yes, those are facts but it is also clear that this team is better than 2010, while Rice and UTEP are at best equally good than in 2010., even though the record only shows it partially, a lot has changed at NT since 2010. And from what I have seen the Rice and UTEP teams are less far along their development than ours, and I do think we are gonna profit more than average from the offseason due to what we will win as compared to who we loose.

shaft · October 29, 2012

Here's my perspective, it's an L.

wardly · October 30, 2012

Rice would kick our butts The only wins I would give us are FIU,UAB,SMISS,Tulane,UTSA,and maybe UTEP.If we are lucky La Tech is shipped East for a few years until ODU and UNCC get up to speed For the 1st few years in CUSA expect more of the same

THOR · October 30, 2012

Rice would kick our butts The only wins I would give us are FIU,UAB,SMISS,Tulane,UTSA,and maybe UTEP.If we are lucky La Tech is shipped East for a few years until ODU and UNCC get up to speed For the 1st few years in CUSA expect more of the same

So we are going to.a bowl game next year...HELL YA!!!

UNT Mean Green · October 30, 2012

Rice would kick our butts The only wins I would give us are FIU,UAB,SMISS,Tulane,UTSA,and maybe UTEP.If we are lucky La Tech is shipped East for a few years until ODU and UNCC get up to speed For the 1st few years in CUSA expect more of the same

A guess at an outcome next year...

WINS

Idaho

Ball State

Rice

UTEP

UTSA

Tulane

UAB (if we play)

Southern Miss (if we play)

FIU (if we play)

Marshall (if we play)

LOSSES

Ohio

Georgia

Tulsa

La Tech (if we play)

East Carolina (if we play)

Edited October 30, 2012 by UNT Mean Green

NT03 · October 30, 2012

Ball State will win 7 or 8 games this year , go to a bowl & are returning every skill position player. I wouldn't count them down as a sure win by any means

Edited October 30, 2012 by NT03

outoftown · October 30, 2012

A guess at an outcome next year...

WINS
Idaho
Ball State
Rice
UTEP
UTSA
Tulane
UAB (if we play)
Southern Miss (if we play)
FIU (if we play)
Marshall (if we play)

LOSSES
Ohio
Georgia
Tulsa
La Tech (if we play)
East Carolina (if we play)

Ball State will win 7 or 8 games this year , go to a bowl & are returning every skill position player. I wouldn't count them down as a sure win by any means

Still if I look at this, this schedule will not be much more difficult than this years. If we go lucky it could actually be pretty makable with UTSA plus 5-6 teams that finish with 4 or less wins this season and 1-2 more games that will see us slightly as dogs. I am optimistic that the coaching staff will make a bowl out of this opportunity. If they do not, I might want to look in another direction though.

Edited October 30, 2012 by outoftown

stryker · October 30, 2012

Think the OP makes some good points. I'm going to add a few thoughts.

Regarding the remainder of the season, I agree that it's not over, however, this team has definitely reached a crossroads. Going into the MTSU game, with a few extra days to prepare, UNT had a chance to win back to back games for the first time since 2004 and came out flat. That was inexcusable. Sitting at 3-5 and looking at the remaining schedule, UNT has to excellent opportunities to win their last two home games against ASU and South Alabama and get back to .500 going on the road against ULM and WKU. Realistically though, UNT is facing the top three teams of the conference in the last four weeks of the season, and that more than likely means this team takes a step back from last year and finishes 4-8. If they lose to ASU and South Alabama, then I think panic could set in and UNT finishes 3-9 which would put more pressure on McCarney going into his third season at the helm.

When a new coach comes in, one of the things we hear about is changing the culture of the program, and I think Dan McCarney has said and done a lot of the right things on that front. For example, this team fell behind early to ULL and rallied to win on national TV and after the first half disaster against MTSU, they battled back in the second half but came up short. One thing that's for certain is regardless that this team won't quit which is a stark contrast to the final year of the Todd Dodge era, when this team effectively quit after the Rice game.

As for the what the future holds, well, I think year 3 of the McCarney era is going to tell us a lot about where this program is headed. If UNT finishes 4-8 (my preseason prediction) it would not be surprising as going from 5-7 or 6-6 to a contender tends to be a lot tougher than going from a one or two win team to a five or six win team. That being said, going into a new conference, next year is critical for this program. Most of the Dodge era recruits will be gone so this will more or less be McCarney's team. The question is how will it play out? Frankly, I think UNT will need to get to 5 or 6 wins next year to show it is headed in the right direction. I've said before that the days of coaches getting 4 and 5 years to build programs are largely extinct. Does that mean McCarney has to win the conference next year or even get to a bowl game, no, but he will need to show results in terms of wins to justify continuing at the helm. On top of that, after the Dodge era, the McCarney era represents an even more critical time, because if he cannot get to UNT back to winning ways, then I would say it's very likely that Rick Villarreal could also be shown the door as well as McCarney. I don't want to take away what Villarreal has done for UNT athletics. The stadium and the new facilities would not be possible without him, but at a Texas school where football is the big moneymaker, his track record in hiring football coaches has not been the greatest. He needs to hit a home run with McCarney to keep his job or UNT could be making more than just a coaching change next time around.

I like what Dan McCarney has done so far. I think he's made some mistakes (not bringing in a viable quarterback sooner though Berglund could be the answer next year) but he's said a lot of the right things and he's going about doing things the right way. The big question is will that translate into more wins than losses. That remains to be seen. I would like to think yes it will.

Edited October 30, 2012 by stryker

wardly · October 31, 2012

No way we beat Ball St., Rice, Marshall or UTEP. In fact, I doubt we cover the spread. I just think we need to realize that we are in the botton 1/3rd of Belt, and will be in the bottom 1/3rd of CUSA for the !st few years. We are not a good football team now, but i have faith in Mac that we will be in the future.Just saying...

outoftown · October 31, 2012

No way we beat Ball St., Rice, Marshall or UTEP. In fact, I doubt we cover the spread. I just think we need to realize that we are in the botton 1/3rd of Belt, and will be in the bottom 1/3rd of CUSA for the !st few years. We are not a good football team now, but i have faith in Mac that we will be in the future.Just saying...

Is this a bit?