The way I see it.

CurveItAround · November 1, 2012

It seems like you box yourself into a corner if you put a specific timeframe on it. I would say he should and will get at least 3 years, but after that it depends on how things are going that are not just about W's, although W's make it a little easier to judge. He went 5-7 last year and will finish this year somewhere between 3-9 and 7-5. Next year who knows. If he wants to make the decision easy, wins will help a lot. If the wins don't come then he is going to have to show perceivable improvement in other areas.

I hope that he is still coaching here in 10 years. That will mean something is going right. Constant coach churning really hurts programs because players tend to leave before their 4 and 5 years, plus players are having to learn new systems. Since we are not the type of program that has shown the ability to recruit lots of 3 star, 4 star and 5 star players, we have to develop them. That takes time. If players are leaving after 2 or 3 years, you never see them reach their full potential. I used the Rivals website to find the the players that signed NLI's with UNT going back to 2003. I then compared those players to our rosters for each of those years to track who actually showed up and remained on the roster at the end of each year. Rivals does not track when a walkon converts to a sholarship player and t does not track transfers that receive a scholarship, it only tracks high school and jucos that sign an NLI. Here are the numbers:

---------------------Signed--End----End-----End----End----End-----NLI On

Year----#Juco-----NLI----YR1----YR2-----YR3---YR4----YR5----Roster

2003----6-----------24-----16-------16-------10------9---------7-------16

2004----2-----------18-----17-------14-------11-----11--------5--------33

2005----4-----------24-----22-------20-------14-----11--------5--------46

2006----4-----------19-----15-------12-------11------8---------6--------55

2007----1-----------18-----18-------14-------10------8---------2--------62

2008----7-----------26-----23-------21-------13------8---------3--------62

2009----7-----------20-----15-------16-------7--------5--------n/a------56

2010----10---------22------19-------18------12------n/a------n/a------62

2011----2-----------22------20-------19------n/a-----n/a------n/a------55

2012----1-----------22------22-------n/a------n/a-----n/a------n/a------61

One thing that jumped out at me is how few players that sign an NLI have remained on the roster at the end of year 3 and beyond (I assume the rosters I was using from meangreensports represented the end of year roster for all years except current year). It is a 50/50 proposition to make it to the end of year 3. I don't see how you can build depth with that much turnover. I plan to look at other schools to see if they have the same problem, but I posted an example of how LaTech currently has 16 redshirt seniors on their 2-deep according to their website. Most years we are lucky just to have 15 players combined on the roster that are 4/5 year players, much less on the 2-deep. It seems to me that one way to improve the team is to keep more players around for longer periods of time so they can get bigger/faster/stronger. If we are somehow able to start recruiting a more finished player (i.e. 5/4/3 star) then the turnover is not as big a deal. I am going to try to look at some of the power conference teams to see what their turnover looks like.

Edited November 1, 2012 by CurveItAround

NT03 · November 1, 2012

90, I don't think it's possible to fire Mac after just 3 years from a financial point

Wouldn't we have to then buyout the last 2 years of his contract (1.2 million ?) on top of hiring a new coach. Now you are looking at roughly a 2 million dollar fire/hire

I don't think we have that kinda $ , Someone correct me if I'm wrong here

UNT90 · November 1, 2012

Would this perhaps include a VERY large increase in the number and amount of donations and a big increase in the number of season tickets? Or, is this just supposed to happen by the "grace of God"? If we want to be a FBS program, and as you say "Act like an FBS program" then the fan base needs to do MUCH more than it is currently doing and that includes more than just complaining and posting on some fan message board. It means giving...and giving more...it means buying those tickets year end and year out...it means talking positive about what is going on right around the place. Chicken and egg thing you say? Nope....ALL FBS schools have to have the money to make it happen. UNT and its fan base has a very poor history when it comes to donations and it takes time to build that base...heck, we still have folks who stop giving what VERY little amount they were giving just because they don't agree with some timing of a tailgate event or some other "who cares" decision made by the athletic department staff. THAT is not being an FBS school...and that type of attitude will NEVER get UNT to that level.

I just played golf and had lunch with a VERY upset and very involved donor (at a significant level I might add) to the University of Arkansas program. This guy is mad...but, when I asked if he was going to cut back or stop giving his answer was..."Are you kidding? Hell, no...I am planning on giving more so we can make the improvements we all see as needed!" He then added, "no true Arkansas fan would even think of stopping support just because the team is having a bad year...complain...yes...stop giving...not on your life".

Hmmmmmm.....see any difference with that attitude and the attitude you see around here?

And, you are 100% correct...Coach Mac definitely understands and he understands the UNT fan base a bit more than some seem to think.

Anyway...to each his own....see you at the game tonight and Saturday!

Edit: Sorry...had to spell check...you know how that goes.

I agree with most of what you say, and you know I do my part, but I don't agree that winning is directly linked with Athletic funding, ULM being a prime example.

And yes, acting like an FBS school also means acting like FBS fans (which not only includes not asking for special treatment from the AD, but also includes griping on fan message boards when the team fails expectations tremendously).

wardly · November 1, 2012

Goals must be reasonable and obtainable with a little pie in the sky. Anyone who projected more that 4 to 5 wins had unreasonable expecations based upon the pre-season Sun Belt coaches poll ,which picked us 7th, ahead of only FIU,FAU, and USA. Some of us need to get real.

Monkeypox · November 1, 2012

Goals must be reasonable and obtainable with a little pie in the sky. Anyone who projected more that 4 to 5 wins had unreasonable expecations based upon the pre-season Sun Belt coaches poll ,which picked us 7th, ahead of only FIU,FAU, and USA. Some of us need to get real.

So as long as they keep picking us low, we'll never have to get better! YIPPEE!

wardly · November 1, 2012

Monkeypox, that not what I meant and you know it. I would expect a 6&6 or 7&5 record next year, depending upon which teams we play in Eastern Dividion of CUSA. Unless schedule changes,we have Idaho and Ball U. home, and Ohio away. Both MAC teams are good, but as of now the only money game scheduled is at Georgia.You eat an elephant a bite at a time. It's just hard to win without much talent,which I feel Mac will be able to recruite.

UNT90 · November 1, 2012

Goals must be reasonable and obtainable with a little pie in the sky. Anyone who projected more that 4 to 5 wins had unreasonable expecations based upon the pre-season Sun Belt coaches poll ,which picked us 7th, ahead of only FIU,FAU, and USA. Some of us need to get real.

Remind me, where was ULM picked to finish this year?

And where wad WKU predicted preseason last year to finish?

Hence the disappointment when you enter a game against MTSU with a legit chance to end up bowl eligible at the end of the year with a win, but pretty much assured the same ole same ole if you lose.

And you come out and get ran over to the tune of 31-0 early in the 3rd.

If you don't understand fan disappointment with that loss, well, I don't know what to tell ya...

Edited November 1, 2012 by UNT90

Monkeypox · November 1, 2012

Monkeypox, that not what I meant and you know it.

Then you should have said something different. Do you believe that beating MTSU was an unreasonable goal this season? How about being competitive against them?

wardly · November 2, 2012

I am talking about the season as a whole,not one game in particular. We got out butt kicked by both Houston and MTSU. It happens. My biggest disapointment to date was the Troy game, one that we should have won but managed to loose.ULL was a very good win, MTSU a disapointing loss, especially after we pounded them last yeat at home.Also, if memory serves, the coaching poll favorites were ULM,W.K.,ULL, and A-State. However I am an old man with selective memory and limited computer skills who can't spell who doesn't remember the exact order. I'm sure someone much wiser than I can provide the exact pre-season pecking order.Finally,I have been supporting the Eagles since my freshman year of 61', have seen more missed opportunities to build the program than I can count, and never knew there were so many shades of green or shapes of eagles.In short, I feel your pain and frustration, and am glad that so many alumni are not just expecting, but demanding first class athletic programs to compliment our first class university.All I am trying to say is that it takes time to build a football program, and no one wants to win more than our coaching staff,our players,and me. Keep posting, and "Go Eagles".[sorry,I am old school, and have never taken to "mean green"]

wardly · November 2, 2012

I stand corrected. As per the 2012 Preseason Sun Belt Coaches Conference Poll dated 7/18/12 :1]FIU 2]A-State 3]ULL 4]WKU 5]Troy 6]ULM 7]MTSU 8]UNT 9]FAU 10]USA. Looks like FIU really tanked,ULM took their top spot, and MTSU is playing well,beating Georgia Tech by 2 or 3 t.d.'s on the road.

UNT90 · November 2, 2012

I am talking about the season as a whole,not one game in particular. We got out butt kicked by both Houston and MTSU. It happens. My biggest disapointment to date was the Troy game, one that we should have won but managed to loose.ULL was a very good win, MTSU a disapointing loss, especially after we pounded them last yeat at home.Also, if memory serves, the coaching poll favorites were ULM,W.K.,ULL, and A-State. However I am an old man with selective memory and limited computer skills who can't spell who doesn't remember the exact order. I'm sure someone much wiser than I can provide the exact pre-season pecking order.Finally,I have been supporting the Eagles since my freshman year of 61', have seen more missed opportunities to build the program than I can count, and never knew there were so many shades of green or shapes of eagles.In short, I feel your pain and frustration, and am glad that so many alumni are not just expecting, but demanding first class athletic programs to compliment our first class university.All I am trying to say is that it takes time to build a football program, and no one wants to win more than our coaching staff,our players,and me. Keep posting, and "Go Eagles".[sorry,I am old school, and have never taken to "mean green"]

We agree on just about everything but 3 vs 5 years being the tipping point.

I agree with you about the over-reaction, just trying to give it some context.

It's just nice that there is a growing group of people who give a crap about athletics at UNT.

wardly · November 2, 2012

Monkeypox, after watching MTSU beat WKU last night on the road I doubt that you and I were right in thinking we could play on the same level as Blue Raiders at their place. Also, as pointed out by another post, shows the gap between our talent and that of the top 4 teams in the Belt. Just takes time and solid recruiting.

greenminer · November 2, 2012

This board has about 2 people that insist the talent gap is obvious.

forevereagle · November 2, 2012

Looks like FIU really tanked,

If FIU had fans, they'd probably be pissed.

Greenhorn · November 2, 2012

Not really disagreeing with you on this, but what is the basis of this assumption? I realize he was the Dcooridnator at Florida, has some reputation for being a "defensive guy" but here is the most important point to me:

College football is ALL about recruiting. Without gains here, it is tough to justify that someone is a great DL guy.

Until you show me DL recruiting improvement, I say this "reputation" of DMac as a great DL guy is unwarranted and just based on teams where he walked into already stacked decks talent wise.

I believe we will all know the truth next season. He has about 4 dlinemen redshirting. Those are his guys. It will be interesting to see if they get playing time.

Harry · November 2, 2012

I think that anything can happen on any day in the Belt, unlike in most major conferences. There is a huge gap between FAU, USA and the top of the Belt. We are above that low line, but not so far above that we can expect to win the conference. We should however, expect to win against the middle of the Belt (or at least not be destroyed by it) and compete against the top of the conference. The Troy loss convinced me that this year was a loss. The Houston and MUTS losses were just further confirmation.

I predicted a 6-6 record and in doing so, ignored the following factors:

- Though a good player, that has good games, DT is not one of the top QBs in the conference.
- Our WR corps really is not at a D1 level, with only a couple of players that were actually recruited and signed as scholarship players
- Our ENTIRE secondary is new and inexperienced. I can't reiterate this enough. We all knew this, but I think because we were so bad last year, we thought "Hey they are all new, but they have to be more talented. So addition by subtraction, right?" Wrong. They are more talented, but raw and are showing it against true passing teams.
- A lack of real depth at DL. Yes we have some nice players there, but few playmakers. And half are undersized and converted DEs (though I do like Boutwell). We just don't generally get pressure on the QB without a blitz.

And I did not anticipate the following:

- A string of injuries at the TE position that cost us Smith and Prior and some significant time from Power. We have had the 5th and 6th (maybe 7th?) string TEs playing at times.
- How much we would miss Stock providing depth and playmaking at LB.
- A complete special teams meltdown early in the year, especially the Troy disaster.
- Exactly how conservative (bad?) the playcalling would be.
- The loss of Chancellor
- Early injuries to Boutwell and Sarge, greatly limited the effectiveness of the DL (and really both have been quiet since the injuries for the most part)
- How much better some of the Belt was this year over last (ULM anyone?)

So I have little hope for this year and am pessimistic for the next. I really think they can beat ASU, but only because it is at home for Homecoming and because I drink green kool-aid. Realistically, we finish 4-8 and most of us go away sad/mad/disappointed.

So as not to leave on a totally negative note, there have been some nice surprises and some expected greatness.

- Bellazin stepping it up
- The three headed monster at RB
- Delgado
- Zach Orr (Beast)
- Akunne (Beast Jr)
- Atterbury
- The Jimmy Show
- Whitfield at CB (I know he has gotten beat of late, but so much better than I thought a RB would do with 4 weeks of preparation)
- The Hilbert Jackson sack
- Olen's recovery from the Troy nightmare

And most importantly:

- Student attendance (REALLY, THANK YOU STUDENTS!!!!)

Great post!

greenminer · November 2, 2012

I am totally on board with a marginal talent gap (more in line with depth issues, especially at WR).

But I wouldn't use that as an excuse until after the season if we get plastered every game hear on out.

Until then, I'll believe (with Green Koolaid in hand) that we can get coached up to one or two additional LaLa-like wins, and that being down 31-0 to MTSU is inexcusable.

meangreener · November 2, 2012

I just find it hard to swallow that ULM, MTSU and Troy passed us up overnight. Period.

I think that we will go 5-7 again this year. A win tomorrow and a win versus WKU. I feel a massive let-down versus South Alabama and complete obliteration versus ULM.

We shall see.

meangreenacct · November 2, 2012

I just find it hard to swallow that ULM, MTSU and Troy passed us up overnight. Period.

I think that we will go 5-7 again this year. A win tomorrow and a win versus WKU. I feel a massive let-down versus South Alabama and complete obliteration versus ULM.

We shall see.

Troy passed us about 6 or 7 years ago...

greenminer · November 2, 2012

Troy passed us about 6 or 7 years ago...

We're 2-8 against Troy since 2001. I don't think they were ever behind us to begin with.

FirefightnRick · November 2, 2012

We're 2-8 against Troy since 2001. I don't think they were ever behind us to begin with.

..."The Troy Trojans are the sports teams of Troy University. They began playing in the NCAA's Division I-A in 2001, became a football only member of the Sun Belt Conference in 2004, and joined that conference for all other sports in 2005..."

While playing in what would be considered a poor Texas High School stadium at the time they beat us as a first year provisional 1-A team in the final game of the '01 season, sending us to the first N.O. bowl with a losing record.

Around the same time we couldn't beat start up program FAU for several years, nor could we beat start up South Florida while their coaches were working out of trailers.

Dont kid yourself, at times we've managed to set ourselves back pretty good over the years for sure.

meangreanmick · November 2, 2012

We're 2-8 against Troy since 2001. I don't think they were ever behind us to begin with.

..."The Troy Trojans are the sports teams of Troy University. They began playing in the NCAA's Division I-A in 2001, became a football only member of the Sun Belt Conference in 2004, and joined that conference for all other sports in 2005..."

While playing in what would be considered a poor Texas High School stadium at the time they beat us as a first year provisional 1-A team in the final game of the '01 season, sending us to the first N.O. bowl with a losing record.

Around the same time we couldn't beat start up program FAU for several years, nor could we beat start up South Florida while their coaches were working out of trailers.

Dont kid yourself, at times we've managed to set ourselves back pretty good over the years for sure.

I don't think he said anything about not setting ourselves back. His point was Troy couldn't really be considered behind us during anytime since they came into our consciousness around the Sunbelt.

I am not sure what you are trying to prove by quoting their web site. Yes, they moved to D1 in 2001, and yes they beat us in 2001. So, since they beat us going back 11 years ago, how can you say they passed us up 6-7 years ago? They have had a good football program for a long time, we have not. Was our football program ever ahead of them?

wardly · November 2, 2012

We are 7&5 against MTSU,lost 5 of last 10 games. I can't remember if we beat ULL last year, but we were 4&6 thru 2010,lost 5 of last 6 games. So I guess the answer is that we have never been better than Troy,have basically won every other year against MTSU,and ULM passed us about 5 or 6 years ago. And yes, I am one of 2 posters that don't think at this point we have much talent, along with the 10 Belt coaches that picked up to finish 8th in conference.