Dave Campbell Texas Football UNT-MTSU Preview and Prediction

[MeanGreen61]

North Texas (3-4, 2-1 in Sun Belt) at Middle Tennessee State (4-3, 2-1), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, espn3.com

Through the first six games of the season, no running back in the country had more rushing yards than MTSU's Benny Cunningham. But in the Blue Raiders' first game without Cunningham, who suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago, not only did MTSU's running game drop off, so did its rushing defense. Granted, that was against unbeaten Mississippi State, but the loss of Cunningham definitely impacted the entire team. Against Mississippi State, MTSU's running attack only gained 3.2 yards per carry, dropping its average below 5.0 for the first time since the second week of the season. Meanwhile, the defense gave up an even seven yards per carry to a Mississippi State running game that had been average coming into the game. The question, then, is whether last week was a blip on the radar, a misstep caused by the loss of the team's best player. If so, I like MTSU in this one. But if this loss will continue to impact MTSU down the road, North Texas will win Saturday, because the UNT defense has been solid against the ground game, and unlike MTSU, North Texas isn't reliant on a single running back. Both Brandin Byrd and Antoinne Jimmerson have surpassed the 400-yard mark this season, while Jeremy Brown has suddenly emerged as a weapon, rushing for 152 yards over the past two weeks after gaining just 48 in the previous five games. That's why I'm reluctantly giving UNT the edge. While MTSU is trying to figure out what to do without Cunningham, UNT is getting additional help from unexpected places.

Key stat: 59, the number of points scored by UNT last year in the season finale against MTSU, which scored just one touchdown. UNT has only scored 40 or more points three times in the past three years.

The mob says: MTSU by 3

So says I: UNT 23, MTSU 21

http://www.texasfootball.com/college-news/view/180158