Pure Conjecture Numbers

[Censored by Laurie]

I'm bored.

MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG

Tony Mitchell - 29.2 15.3 10.8 1.8 1.1 3.2

- Scoring numbers go up a bit, rebounding numbers level off or drop slightly b/c of better rebounding team

Chris Jones - 31.8 12.1 5.1 5.8 2.3 0.2

- Scoring takes a dip, but assists numbers go up...hopefully with a better A:T ratio

Alzee Williams - 28.2 10.9 3.1 1.7 2.0 0.2

- he earns his minutes with everything else he does on the floor...I think this will be a very efficient 10ppg (>8-10 shots a night)

Jordan Williams - 24.7 10.1 4.0 1.3 1.3 0.5

- if he's improved even to a 30-35% 3-pt shooter he's the second scoring option and minutes go up

Jacob Holmen - 18.7 8.8 3.7 0.8 0.3 0.1

- scoring is there, but doesn't rebound for a 4 or defend for a 3 well enough to earn extended minutes

Justin Patton - 23.1 8.3 5.9 2.0 1.0 0.5

- glue guy

Roger Franklin - 17.9 6.9 4.7 1.1 0.5 0.5

- glue guy, bench version

Keith Coleman - 19.4 6.1 6.7 0.3 0.2 1.7

- I'm over the moon if this is his end stat line

Brandon Walton - 8.7 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.0

- he plays more if no one (namely JW and CJ) have improved their perimeter shooting

PJ Hardwick - 12.2 3.1 1.1 2.8 1.0 0.0

- I bet it will be a fun 10-12 minutes a night when PJ's out there

Niko Stojko - 8.2 2.8 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1

- if he plays more, I think it means Mitchell and/or Coleman are in foul trouble

C. Overlander - 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0

- even if he's a better shooter than Walton, I doubt he's up to the pace of the college game just yet

Thoughts?

[CMJ]

I kinda think Walton may play more, but I can't really argue with your breakdown.

[MDH]

89.6 points per game? We're winning a crap ton of games if that's the case.

I'd take 1 ppg away from Patton, Holmen, Coleman and Niko.

Edited October 26, 2012 by MDH

[BillySee58]

I think Coleman plays more than that, at least after he gets in the swing of things. If we are going to make any kind of run in March we will need Coleman to be huge (no pun intended) against the big boys of college basketball.

Our goal is to be a player in the NCAA tournament come March. Everyone's thinking it, I'm just saying it.

[Censored by Laurie]

I kinda think Walton may play more, but I can't really argue with your breakdown.

I had him up a bit more when I originally wrote this out, but I think Jordan takes some of his minutes at the 2...I think Benford will play more full-court and up-tempo than JJ and the allure of something like a PJ - JW - JP - JH - TM line-up for that style is stronger than what Walton brings.

89.6 points per game? We're winning a crap ton of games if that's the case.

That assumes everyone plays every game...which won't be the case...I'll say this team is mid 70s - low 80s capable though.

[glick1980]

89.6 points per game? We're winning a crap ton of games if that's the case.

I'd take 1 ppg away from Patton, Holmen, Coleman and Niko.

Perhaps we are scoring more points becaue judging from the minutes breakdown our games will be an average of 5.1 minutes longer than regulation college baskeball games.

[Censored by Laurie]

Perhaps we are scoring more points becaue judging from the minutes breakdown our games will be an average of 5.1 minutes longer than regulation college baskeball games.

Again...you can't just add up the numbers...it assumes that every one played every game. If you add up last year's player/game scoring numbers you get 89.9ppg, but as a team we scored 70.1.

[Green P1]

Less Hole more Niko.

Also... make your stupid signature picture bigger.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Green P1

[GreenBat]

I do not understand everyone's fasination with Patton? He very well be a great glue guy, but Roger Franklin is a PROVEN glue guy. You can count on Big Rog for 6 pts and 4 rebs per game. Patton will not get the minutes he got at Grambling, he will not be as productive. Holmen is poised for a monster year. Every thing I've read says he's the most improved player. I could be wrong, but I see Patton at the end of the rotation, just in front of Niko.

In my opinion the second team could win the Sunbelt, this team is so deep. That might be a stretch, but this team is very talented.

[Censored by Laurie]

I do not understand everyone's fasination with Patton? He very well be a great glue guy, but Roger Franklin is a PROVEN glue guy. You can count on Big Rog for 6 pts and 4 rebs per game. Patton will not get the minutes he got at Grambling, he will not be as productive. Holmen is poised for a monster year. Every thing I've read says he's the most improved player. I could be wrong, but I see Patton at the end of the rotation, just in front of Niko.

In my opinion the second team could win the Sunbelt, this team is so deep. That might be a stretch, but this team is very talented.

Ok...if it suits you, flip the minutes and production I'm projecting for Patton and Franklin. That still seems pretty realistic, right? I like Patton for more minutes b/c I feel he's more versatile...I think he's capable of guarding the 2, 3 or 4...he'll step out behind the arc a bit more and stretch the floor more than Franklin. Franklin, for me, is a 4 in a wing's body...while he might have 15-18 foot range, he's best with his back to the basket...I also think he get's caught out a bit when asked to guard quicker perimeter players.

[UNT90]

I do not understand everyone's fasination with Patton? He very well be a great glue guy, but Roger Franklin is a PROVEN glue guy. You can count on Big Rog for 6 pts and 4 rebs per game. Patton will not get the minutes he got at Grambling, he will not be as productive. Holmen is poised for a monster year. Every thing I've read says he's the most improved player. I could be wrong, but I see Patton at the end of the rotation, just in front of Niko.

In my opinion the second team could win the Sunbelt, this team is so deep. That might be a stretch, but this team is very talented.

You are wrong. Patton is a proven college all-conference player. That conference may have been a slight step down from the Belt, but he was still one of the 5 best players in that conference, which means he is better than many on the current UNT roster. Patton can also shoot the ball much better than Franklin, who is a 4 trapped in a 2 or 3 body. He is also more explosive going to the basket and much more athletic. Patton is in front of PJ, Niko, Overlander, Walton, and Franklin in the rotation. Some nights he may actually start, depending on the opposing team's lineup.

But isn't it fun to have these types of arguments?

I agree with most of what CBL posted, but think Mitchell averages over 17 PPG this year. Coleman is a complete unknown, but if he can just rebound and add a post defensive presence, it will free Mitchell up to do so much more.

Look out for Holman. He is actually taller than Coleman, and about the same size as Mitchell. He appears to have added an inch or so of height in the off-season. It will be interesting to see how that translates to the court.

[foutsrouts]

You are wrong. Patton is a proven college all-conference player. That conference may have been a slight step down from the Belt, but he was still one of the 5 best players in that conference, which means he is better than many on the current UNT roster. Patton can also shoot the ball much better than Franklin, who is a 4 trapped in a 2 or 3 body. He is also more explosive going to the basket and much more athletic. Patton is in front of PJ, Niko, Overlander, Walton, and Franklin in the rotation. Some nights he may actually start, depending on the opposing team's lineup.

But isn't it fun to have these types of arguments?

I agree with most of what CBL posted, but think Mitchell averages over 17 PPG this year. Coleman is a complete unknown, but if he can just rebound and add a post defensive presence, it will free Mitchell up to do so much more.

Look out for Holman. He is actually taller than Coleman, and about the same size as Mitchell. He appears to have added an inch or so of height in the off-season. It will be interesting to see how that translates to the court.

Patton was second team All-SWAC. He's really an enigma to me at this point, and I'm not quite sure what to expect. Hopefully his shot has improved considerably since his Grambling days.

[GrandGreen]

You are wrong. Patton is a proven college all-conference player. That conference may have been a slight step down from the Belt, but he was still one of the 5 best players in that conference, which means he is better than many on the current UNT roster. Patton can also shoot the ball much better than Franklin, who is a 4 trapped in a 2 or 3 body. He is also more explosive going to the basket and much more athletic. Patton is in front of PJ, Niko, Overlander, Walton, and Franklin in the rotation. Some nights he may actually start, depending on the opposing team's lineup.

But isn't it fun to have these types of arguments?

I agree with most of what CBL posted, but think Mitchell averages over 17 PPG this year. Coleman is a complete unknown, but if he can just rebound and add a post defensive presence, it will free Mitchell up to do so much more.

Look out for Holman. He is actually taller than Coleman, and about the same size as Mitchell. He appears to have added an inch or so of height in the off-season. It will be interesting to see how that translates to the court.

Holmen is not taller than Coleman but he does look like he is much more willing to mix it up inside than before. Patton is a player and I believe that Colemen can be a force just by rebounding,defending and scoring inside. Mitchell, Coleman, Niko, Holmen and Patton should make NT very tough in the front court. Jordan Williams and Franklin could also play there but I think they will mostly play the 3.

[GangGreen]

You can count on Big Rog for 6 pts .

If he shoots 8 or 9 times. Just saying.

[MeanGreenTexan]

I'm bored.

MPG PPG RPG APG SPG BPG

Tony Mitchell - 29.2 15.3 10.8 1.8 1.1 3.2

- Scoring numbers go up a bit, rebounding numbers level off or drop slightly b/c of better rebounding team

Chris Jones - 31.8 12.1 5.1 5.8 2.3 0.2

- Scoring takes a dip, but assists numbers go up...hopefully with a better A:T ratio

Alzee Williams - 28.2 10.9 3.1 1.7 2.0 0.2

- he earns his minutes with everything else he does on the floor...I think this will be a very efficient 10ppg (>8-10 shots a night)

Jordan Williams - 24.7 10.1 4.0 1.3 1.3 0.5

- if he's improved even to a 30-35% 3-pt shooter he's the second scoring option and minutes go up

Jacob Holmen - 18.7 8.8 3.7 0.8 0.3 0.1

- scoring is there, but doesn't rebound for a 4 or defend for a 3 well enough to earn extended minutes

Justin Patton - 23.1 8.3 5.9 2.0 1.0 0.5

- glue guy

Roger Franklin - 17.9 6.9 4.7 1.1 0.5 0.5

- glue guy, bench version

Keith Coleman - 19.4 6.1 6.7 0.3 0.2 1.7

- I'm over the moon if this is his end stat line

Brandon Walton - 8.7 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.0

- he plays more if no one (namely JW and CJ) have improved their perimeter shooting

PJ Hardwick - 12.2 3.1 1.1 2.8 1.0 0.0

- I bet it will be a fun 10-12 minutes a night when PJ's out there

Niko Stojko - 8.2 2.8 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1

- if he plays more, I think it means Mitchell and/or Coleman are in foul trouble

C. Overlander - 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0

- even if he's a better shooter than Walton, I doubt he's up to the pace of the college game just yet

Thoughts?

This is magnificent.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I just believe that Coleman will put up bigger numbers than that: Min/pts/rbds (unless he fouls a ton).

I dunno if PJ sees that much time... If Benford wants to go big, he may slide Alzee over to the 1 and bring Jordan to the 2 or something. This type of lineup might eat into PJ's minutes. He'll have to really earn much more than 10 min/game... which he might.

And I think I may jump on the Holeman bandwagon as well. I think you may be able to swap his minutes with Patton's. If so, then hopefully his production goes up as well, but there are just so many scoring options ont this team... so maybe not?

Mitchell was challenged to lead the nation in rebounds by coach Benford. I hope that means his rebound numbers increase from last year more than what you have him down for. But, with as big/strong as Coleman is, Mitchell may not have to board as much when Coleman's in the neighborhood, and that could lead to Mitchell up the court in transition... Oh My!

[greenminer]

But, with as big/strong as Coleman is, Mitchell may not have to board as much when Coleman's in the neighborhood, and that could lead to Mitchell up the court in transition... Oh My!

This. This times Pi.

[UNT90]

Holmen is not taller than Coleman but he does look like he is much more willing to mix it up inside than before. Patton is a player and I believe that Colemen can be a force just by rebounding,defending and scoring inside. Mitchell, Coleman, Niko, Holmen and Patton should make NT very tough in the front court. Jordan Williams and Franklin could also play there but I think they will mostly play the 3.

Holman looks like he has grown since last year. Saw him standing side by side with Coleman and he had Coleman just slightly.

But, Coleman was MUCH wider. Good news is that Holman is big enough to defend the 4.

[GangGreen]

This is great breakdown. I was trying to do the same thing a couple of days before you posted this and couldn't figure where all the minutes would go.

One stat I wish you would have covered would have been how many outlet passes for break away jams we were going to get per game. Can you please crunch that and post asap. Yeah, that would be great.