Sun Belt Week #9 Power Poll

MeanGreen61 · October 23, 2012

Mean Green getting respect from some.

Arkstfan post:

For years I've been the HEY It's not as bad as you think guy

Now I guess I'm the HEY It's not as good as you think guy.

Last year I said ASU would crack the top 25 if we beat NIU. I did not think we'd be one of the 25 best, but I understand how the polls work. 2-1 in OT vs. some bad SEC teams does not Top 25 make. But post a good enough record and the polls will take care of you.

The conference is better but it remains balanced. Hell it was balanced last year though probably not as balanced since no one defeated a team that finished ahead of them in the standings but it took a blocked punt for a TD for #1 to beat #6.

Here's how I see it.

1. ULM. First this looks like pretty much every ULM team I've watched the past 10 years EXCEPT a little bigger, a little faster, and playing more consistently with poise. If anyone is going to do what ASU did last year, it is ULM and for much the same reasons, a good core group of seniors finally put the pieces together with the right supporting cast. Five games left and of the three most dangerous, they come in a row and two are at home. Get to 10-2 and you've got an outside shot at being ranked. Win the NOB to finish 11-3 and you are ranked.

2. WKU five games left, only two on the road, two of the three most dangerous are at home. Salty defense and the offense doesn't screw up much but most importantly they will get you some positive yards before punting if they can't score. With good things happening, can get to 10 wins, but 9 is probably most likely. If the 'Toppers only get to 8 I guess we will talke about the late "collapse".

3. North Texas. Don't think they finish here with three of the last five on the road. From what little I've seen, they have an o-line that can whip people and a defense that gets really frustrated with teams that play a fast tempo. I expect MTSU, ASU, and ULM will all push the tempo hard on UNT the question is how many times they break. Of games remaining that I don't have a stake in, the one I'd most like to watch will be at WKU. The young man vs. the old man trying to whip ass in the trenches with just enough new razz-ma-tazz on offense to keep it from looking like a game from the late 70's or early 80's (or UNT 2001-2004). Right now I think they have to be tabbed #3 even though I suspect #4 is as high they go in the final standings.

4. Louisiana. The Cajuns have mostly been the team I thought they were. The OkSt game I didn't expect but I didn't expect OSU to lose the week before and be loaded for bear. I wasn't so much surprised that UNT beat them in Denton as I was surprised that UL would yield 24 in the second half and came out -2 on turnovers. Even with that minus 2 performance still ranked 18th in turnover margin. Of the last four TD's given up, all were 20 or more yard plays, before that FIU's three TD's were scored on plays covering five yards. Don't know what that means other than it is odd and I spend a lot of time in box scores.

5. Troy. I don't like placing them under UNT given that Troy won head-to-head but I'm trying to figure out where teams stand TODAY. Troy last year was the anti-ASU or the anti-ULM of this season. Things didn't click and it snowballed. This year Troy is clearly pretty good but there are no "Wow they won that game?" or "Wow, can't believe they lost there" games. Both are unusual for Troy and I doubt any Troy fan disagrees with me there. Troy is getting bowl eligible at some point this year but I'm going to keep a close eye on score updates for Tenn and Navy, two games I EXPECT Troy will lose but history tells me one or both will be close late and that is how you win "extra" games each year.

6. Middle Tenn. Toyed with them at #5, maybe should have put them there. I've watched very little of the Blue Raiders and don't have a feel for what is going on other than when they are up the are UP. With only 2 of the last five at home the schedule does them no favors but my hunch is they might prove to be pretty good if they find consistency.

7. Arkansas State. Seven games in, the offense is pretty good. The defense has big depth issues, the two games where a starter missed on the defensive side, it was apparent something was wrong. Special teams are on a pace to have their mistakes result in 77 points either directly on scores or short drives set-up by special teams this season. Only two of the remaining five are at home and that leaves ASU with a big struggle to get things right.

8. USA. On paper I think they are no better than #9. Clean up the turnovers and penalties and USA is probably 4-3 right now but the Jags aren't ready to compete for the title today. Better entry than WKU had and about like what FAU's first run was. I'd call this a successful transition even if it might not be as pretty as hoped.

9. FAU. Going back to the proverbial piece of paper. FAU ought to be #10 but the team has some fight in it as they recover from allowing Howard to stay a bit too long, even though it was the right thing to do.

10. FIU. The Panthers like the Owls have played some close games without getting a positive result, the difference is that FIU was projected to be one of the top 3 with most placing them first while FAU was picked to be battling USA for last. I put FIU here because something has gone terribly wrong with the former hottest young name in coaching looking like an early 2013 hot seat leader. FAU losing but often being competitive looks like a bad team that believes in their coach, while FIU looks like a good team that has lost faith in their coach. So until they meet FAU and prove me wrong, they get slotted below FAU

Edited October 23, 2012 by MeanGreen61