North Texas Odds to Make it to Bowl

All About UNT · October 19, 2012

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/north-texas-mean-green/projections

According to this Stats site we have:

a 83.9% chance of beating South Alabama

a 54.1% chance of beating Ark St.

a 41.8% chance of beating MT (of course that doesn't recognize that Benny Cunningham is out)

we have a 35% chance at being Bowl eligible

I will go on the record and state that we get 6 wins this year. All three of those games I think we can and will win. Turn out for the Ark St. game had better be both a very large and very vocal one. You can see that while we didn't have more than 21k in the stands on Tuesday that when you watch the game we sounded fantastic.

outoftown · October 19, 2012

I do think that underestimates our chances somewhat.

Also, our chances to actually get a bowl if we go 6-6 are quite ok. The more bowl ineligible teams like Ohio state, Penn state UNC (and I think the jury is still out on UCF) win, the more they drown bowl eligibilty out of their conferences, that leaves bowl bids for teams like UNT. Right now these teams are all doing ok to very well. It is not for nothing that the NCAA made up rules this summer for how to proceed if there are not enough bowl eligible teams.

shaft · October 19, 2012

Obviously we have to win games, but the other half of the bowl equation has to with available bowl slots. Keep your eye on teams like Purdue, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, Air Force, and SMU/Houston that could all end up below .500 and create a lot of holes in the bowl schedule.

wardly · October 19, 2012

Its really hard to win on the road. I don't like our chances at W.K. or ULL, but MTSU lost their stud running back. USA is a win, but A-State could be either a loss like Troy or win like ULL. I put us at 5&7,6&6 if we get some breaks, which may not be good enough for a bowl. W.K. was 7&5 last year and stayed home, probably because they lost to a 1aa school.We just need to take care of business.

trussbussdad · October 19, 2012

2nd Season for DMAC and a bowl...that is GREATNESS!!! Alot to do to get to that point, but I know the MEAN GREEN will do their part. STADIUM needs to do its part by being packed...I MEAN REALLY PACKED AND LOUD for the remaining games.

GMG...WE GOT YOUR 6

ntmeangreen11 · October 19, 2012

I think Arkstfan posted an article on his website showing how many teams will be eligible, looks like as of right now it's 50/50 whether or not there will be 70 bowl eligible teams. In order for this to become a possibility, we have to win @ MT, vs. ASU & vs. USA making us 6-4 heading in to the final two games, which will be the most difficult.

UNT 90 Grad · October 19, 2012

I think Arkstfan posted an article on his website showing how many teams will be eligible, looks like as of right now it's 50/50 whether or not there will be 70 bowl eligible teams. In order for this to become a possibility, we have to win @ MT, vs. ASU & vs. USA making us 6-4 heading in to the final two games, which will be the most difficult.

So if the last home win makes us bowl eligible,do the students rush the field? Would that be appropriate?

shaft · October 19, 2012

No, we don't rush the field for USA

UNT 90 Grad · October 20, 2012

No, we don't rush the field for USA

I agree, unless the math worked out where it guaranteed a conference championship. Crazy things would probably have to happen for that to be the case.

houstonmeangreen · October 20, 2012

don't know, but I can say that if we play as conservative as we played against Troy and ULL, we can't beat WKU and La Monroe....on our win against LaLa we were lucky to pull that our with some big plays and coming back from a 20-3 score...like someone said...we are not a team that comes from behind well...maybe that is changing...don't know. Would like us to mix up the plays on 1st down...just too predictable and more short passes..slants,etc and repeat plays that work, don't just do them once per game. I'll say this...the MG played fantastic football in the 2nd half....I was impressed...proud of the MG and very happy for the players.

If getting a bowl happens with a 6/6 record...we stand a 50/50 chance....7/5...maybe 25-30%...if that high...but confidence can change a team and it seems they"got it" in the 2nd have of the laLa game.

greenminer · October 20, 2012

don't know, but I can say that if we play as conservative as we played against Troy and ULL, we can't beat WKU and La Monroe....on our win against LaLa we were lucky to pull that our with some big plays and coming back from a 20-3 score...like someone said...we are not a team that comes from behind well...maybe that is changing...don't know. Would like us to mix up the plays on 1st down...just too predictable and more short passes..slants,etc and repeat plays that work, don't just do them once per game. I'll say this...the MG played fantastic football in the 2nd half....I was impressed...proud of the MG and very happy for the players.

If getting a bowl happens with a 6/6 record...we stand a 50/50 chance....7/5...maybe 25-30%...if that high...but confidence can change a team and it seems they"got it" in the 2nd have of the laLa game.

What was our run/pass ratio in the 2nd half? 1st half?

I bet a lot of us have different ideas of what constitutes creative playcalling.

houstonmeangreen · October 20, 2012

What was our run/pass ratio in the 2nd half? 1st half?

I bet a lot of us have different ideas of what constitutes creative playcalling.

examples of conservative play I saw...the play when we were at the 1/2 yrd line and goal line...why?...twice playing out of end zone...running right up the middle x 3...punt...if your def is working well and their off..not so much, well maybe OK, but with an off like LaMonroe or WKU, you are turning the ball over to their off and giving them a short field. I think we ran the ball 75%+ on first downs...predictable.

shaft · October 20, 2012

If getting a bowl happens with a 6/6 record...we stand a 50/50 chance....7/5...maybe 25-30%...if that high...but confidence can change a team and it seems they"got it" in the 2nd have of the laLa game.

Way to ignore the facts. Multiple teams with winning records have bowl bans, coupled with bad play in other conferences mean there will be a shortage of bowl eligible teams. 6-6 gets you a bowl this season. Add in the fact that we draw well, and just won on national tv and you have a very different situation than an upstart WKY getting left out in 2011.

All About UNT · October 20, 2012

What was our run/pass ratio in the 2nd half? 1st half?

I bet a lot of us have different ideas of what constitutes creative playcalling.

I'm so lame

1st Half:

24 Rushing attempts

15 Pass Attempts

2nd Half:

26 Rushing Attempts

12 Passing Attempts

NT91 · October 20, 2012

NT needs to be 7-5 to get in

KRAM1 · October 20, 2012

I do not know what the odds are...what I do know is that if UNT wins seven it will have a pretty good chance of going bowling. So, the next game is the Big Game! And, then the one after that...one game at a time folks, one game at a time....and that will determine the odds for us.

Next up...Middle....so, BEAT MIDDLE!