My theory on the Sunbelt Conference...results starting to show

[TheColonyEagle]

I've had a theory for a while about the BCS conferences and the "other" conferences. And it revolves around recruiting, the type of athletes these schools recruit, and their geographic footprint.

If you look at the geographic recruiting footprint of the AQ conferences, you could assign a "little brother" that matches the recruiting area.

Big 10 - MAC

Pac 12 - MWC/WAC

Big 12 - CUSA

SEC - Sunbelt

The SEC has had the best athletes for some time now and if you're going to get the "next tier" athlete....which AQ conference would you want to get that next tier from?

As it stands today, Athlete to Athlete, I think the Sunbelt conference is in position to overcome the CUSAs and MWCs of the world. The reason that Monroe and Troy and WKU can hang with and in some instances beat teams from the #1 conference in the land is because they recruit the same type of athlete....because they're in the same part of the country. It's taken about 10-12 years to establish this.

(Also regarding recruiting, it's also obvious how far the conference has come and how far behind the Sunbelt we fell in Dickey's last couple of years and the Dodge debacle...and a miracle how fast McCarney appears to be overcoming it.)

I'm not advocating staying in the Sunbelt. It makes too much sense to play Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Tulane vs the other farther away schools. I get that. And the Sunbelt is about to take a step back anyway with FCS move ups and start ups coming in. (By the way so is CUSA) So while this year's version of the Sunbelt is better than this year's version of CUSA, I get why we're leaving the Sunbelt. And unfortunately for the Sunbelt, the exsisting schools have little tradition, little budgets, and little national recognition and history. What momentum they are finally gaining on the field cannot overcome the real competive edge in college football today which is money and perception (which combined with geography, is the reason we're leaving.)

I guess my point is, the product on the field in the Sunbelt has been improving the past few years and they are gaining momentum in recruiting....and they're finally getting some national recognition for it.

Perception wise, we're moving up....money wise, we're moving up.

Product on the field? I'm not so sure...

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

I fully concur with your supposition; which is also to say, I agree with it.

[ColoradoEagle]

ULM is losing their direct line to the DFW market. 11 of their 25 players last year were from this area. I don't feel like WKU's win over UK or Troy's beating UAB make them the next big thing.

Maybe it's just me.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

ULM is losing their direct line to the DFW market. 11 of their 25 players last year were from this area. I don't feel like WKU's win over UK or Troy's beating UAB make them the next big thing.

Maybe it's just me.

Do not underestimate Todd Berry's recruiting ties in Texas. He's an Oklahoma boy (well...man, now) who played at Tulsa and coached there and at Oklahoma State. He's recruited pretty much the nation as Army's head coach as well.

So, my guess is ULM will be fine as long as Todd Berry is the head coach.

[UNTLifer]

as long as Todd Berry is the head coach.

And if the Warhawks keep performing as they have so far this season, that won't be long.

[PlummMeanGreen]

The SBC has performed admirably and nothing will be wrong with the league when it loses 2 of its members in 2013 but...............CUSA has 2 or 3 flagship programs (not going to the Big East) who have still broken the all important Top 25 football polls barrier this and prior decades which the 'Belt has had any school to do even one time since its beginnings.

I didn't look at the polls after ULM beat #8 Arkansas, but I don't think beating a top 10 school even got them in a Top 25 poll, right? I didn't see the polls last week but did their big win even get ULM votes for a Top 25 ranking (which I can only assume they got at least a few)? Anyone?

Looking at the big picture, CUSA is still a much better conference for North Texas for many reasons even if for nothing else being the first NCAA FBS conference for us to be in that has a regionalized division with most all divisional opponents in Texas or adjacent to our state. Our future home football and basketball schedules improved immediatley once we got the invite and I'd bet we will also cut some future travel cost down, too.

FWIW......at the end of this football season when all have come back to earth and reality rears its ugly head there would still be no SBC program who would turn down a CUSA invite if they were (in deed) invited and that reason is at the top of the list as to why none of us should even remotely entertain the idea that our decision to join CUSA was wrong.

GMG!

Edited September 17, 2012 by PlummMeanGreen

[GreenFlag]

CUSA footprint is not small, but the epicenter is definately SEC/Big XII territory. So the CUSA footprint is of the best two conferences but with a better reputation and schools willing to spend the money.

One of our late recruits came from ULM (Trussell) after we had some guys decomit from us for SMU. His father told me it was night and day between the two and the choice to come to North Texas was an easy one.

I am happy for the Sun Belt this year after we have been kicked around for so long but tap the breaks a little on conference superiority.

[Mean Green 93-98]

CUSA footprint is not small, but the epicenter is definately SEC/Big XII territory. So the CUSA footprint is of the best two conferences but with a better reputation and schools willing to spend the money.

Really, the vast majority of C-USA schools lie in the SEC footprint. But it does stretch further west than the entire Big XII, and east of the SEC into solid ACC territory. It's tough to view it as the "little brother" of any one conference.

[ntmeangreen11]

Taggart-Christobal-Blakeny-Hudspeth-Malzahn

Once they leave, the sun belt will stop playing above it's limit.

[Mean Green 93-98]

Taggart-Christobal-Blakeny-Hudspeth-Malzahn

Once they leave, the sun belt will stop playing above it's limit.

We might not want to leave "Berry" out.

[UNT 90 Grad]

I didn't look at the polls after ULM beat #8 Arkansas, but I don't think beating a top 10 school even got them in a Top 25 poll, right? I didn't see the polls last week but did their big win even get ULM votes for a Top 25 ranking (which I can only assume they got at least a few)? Anyone?

Why yes, yes they did.

http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20120909/UPDATES01/120909001/ULM-receiving-votes-AP-poll-after-upset-Arkansas-falls-out

[Eastwood Eagle]

Taggart-Christobal-Blakeny-Hudspeth-Malzahn

Once they leave, the sun belt will stop playing above it's limit.

I bet Malzahn ends up at Arkansas.

[oldguystudent]

Two words: Karl Benson

[Mean Green Matt]

Can we please stop the circle jerk over ULM? After Alabama beat Arkansas by 17 more in Fayettville than they beat WKU in Tuscaloosa, I think that win over "#8" Arkansas comes down a notch. Also, Auburn is terrible. That's not to say that ULM is not a good team, but they're not the next freakin Boise State. ULM will not even win the Sun Belt this year.

[Mean Green Matt]

I bet Malzahn ends up at Arkansas.

Not if ASU keeps playing the way they are right now.

[The Fake Lonnie Finch]

Really, the vast majority of C-USA schools lie in the SEC footprint. But it does stretch further west than the entire Big XII, and east of the SEC into solid ACC territory. It's tough to view it as the "little brother" of any one conference.

When I look at this map, I get sad and start to cry. And, as I wipe away tears and start doing some math, I see that a good split would be:

EAST

Old Dominion

East Carolina

UNC-Charlotte

Marshall

Florida International

UAB

Tulane

Southern Mississippi

WEST

UTEP

UTSA

UNT

Rice

Lousiana Tech

Tulsa

New Mexico State

And, this is why I weep. Why are we leaving out New Mexico State? We take on UNC-Charlotte and Old Dominion...and really, UTSA...all start-ups of sorts.

And, there on the edge of our UTEP, just a 20 or so minute drive away, is NMSU. Is it too much to ask to throw the Aggies a lifeline?

Also...yes...I already know they can put Tulane in with us. It just makes more geographic sense to me to have Tulane and Southerm Miss in a division and UTEP and NMSU in a division.

I hate the world. It's cruel and cold and filled with so many uncooked sausages.

Edited September 18, 2012 by The Fake Lonnie Finch

[Harry]

When I look at this map, I get sad and start to cry. And, as I wipe away tears and start doing some math, I see that a good split would be:

EAST

Old Dominion

East Carolina

UNC-Charlotte

Marshall

Florida International

UAB

Tulane

Southern Mississippi

WEST

UTEP

UTSA

UNT

Rice

Lousiana Tech

Tulsa

New Mexico State

And, this is why I weep. Why are we leaving out New Mexico State? We take on UNC-Charlotte and Old Dominion...and really, UTSA...all start-ups of sorts.

And, there on the edge of our UTEP, just a 20 or so minute drive away, is NMSU. Is it too much to ask to throw the Aggies a lifeline?

Also...yes...I already know they can put Tulane in with us. It just makes more geographic sense to me to have Tulane and Southerm Miss in a division and UTEP and NMSU in a division.

I hate the world. It's cruel and cold and filled with so many uncooked sausages.

It's real simple.

When CUSA expanded back in 2005 they chose UTEP primarily because SMU didn't want us in.

The eastern CUSA teams HATED having to travel to UTEP. Thus the east west divisions were formed and they no longer have to.

UTEP politically claims that they want NMSU in...the private truth is they like being at a recruiting advantage in C-USA.

UTEP prefers CUSA over Mountain West because the want the entry into Dallas and Houston where they have a lot of alums.

NMSU can't get into The Mountain West because New Mexico - although politically claiming they want them - like UTEP prefers the recruiting advantage they hold over them.

NMSU is in a real bad spot.

[outoftown]

I have to say that the sun belt preforms admirably right now... but mid to long term it has another disadvantage, that really limits the ceiling. Wright waters goodbye gift was a tv contract that basically locked the sunbelt into getting some coverage but no money for football until like 2022 (did not look that up, might only be 2019). I believe that will haunt the belt for some time to come.

And I think I remember darkly that our AD said something of the money difference between the conferences being 700 000$. Please don''t fry me if I got the numbers wrong. But that would be quite a bit at our level (It pretty much means you don't have to play one of those inopportune opportunity games).

Edited September 18, 2012 by outoftown

[untjim1995]

I think the SBC has done well for itself, considering it all. The budgets are small, the media is poor to non-existent, and the schools themselves don't appeal to a lot of fans. That said, the NO Bowl tie-in was genius and the fact that the league survived the chaos of NMSU, Utah State, and Idaho leaving by identifying FAU and FIU as replacements was huge. As a matter of fact, that is a big reason why the SBC survived and the WAC died. But I wouldn't read too much into the "success" that the SBC has had this season. ULM has played great, but the names on the front of the jersey of their last two opponents is vastly better than their performance so far. If that wasn't true, ULM would be ranked right now. As a matter of fact, if ULM beats Baylor at home this week, then they should be ranked, no questions asked. But the SBC perception is still so bad in the media that even that is a 50/50 proposition at best. Most of those media members feel that these AQ teams just take for granted the "pesky" and "lightly-regarded" SBC teams, and if they lose or barely win, then that team gets the penalty, while the SBC team gets very little recognition, other than an "Attaboy" from the CFB elite media. At the very least, CUSA has teams that get the proper recognition from those media members if they do exactly the same thing that ULM and WKU have done. I don't know how much longer the SBC teams will deal with that problem, but I do know its not going away anytime soon. If you ask anyone who is in the know about CFB, the SBC on-field performance is better than the MAC and probably not too much worse than CUSA at this time. But the ESPN/CBS Sports/Fox Sports media don't acknowledge it at all, probably because none of them pay much attention to anyone outside of the Big Five conferences anyway.

Edited September 19, 2012 by untjim1995