odds of top 25 ranking

[hickoryhouse]

So I have been having lots of conversations at work about the Mean Green over the summer. 1 of the conversations that came up was about our basketball team, that seems to be a very interesting topic at the office. I have a lot of dollars over there of course, we all expect that, at least a little bit. What the question was raised what are the odds of the Mean Green achieving a top 25 ranking this season?

I thought about it for a minute and thought that I would ask the experts here at gmg and see what y'all thought.

I'm a definite Homer, and I don't make any apologies about that. So I told the guys at work that I'm giving it better than 50 50 ipods that would be in the top 25 this season. I told them to mark that down.

Makes me wonder though, are we putting too much pressure on the team? Is this something that actually achievable? I feel like it is, and I can't wait for the season to start.

[glick1980]

MTSU was almost ranked last year, and (on paper) our team this year is much more talented. I will be upset if we don't at least make it to the Sweet 16.

[LakeTravis]

Just having a win in the NCAA tournament would be ok for me.

Since we haven't even been able to do that.

One step at a time guys.

[Mean Green 93-98]

Just having a win in the NCAA tournament would be ok for me.

Since we haven't even been able to do that.

One step at a time guys.

I would normally agree with you . . .

But seeing this is almost certainly our last year with a once-in-a-lifetime player, we've got to think bigger, and we've got to do it now.

We can go back to baby steps in 2013.

[UNTstormchaser]

I honestly think our ceiling is probably a Butler-ish type of run through the NCAA tournament. I mean, any team can get really hot and win a few tough games, but we actually have the talent to make that happen. I'd run down the roster...but we all know what we have here. I think more realistic is to think 25 regular season wins, Sun Belt regular season champions, and an auto bid if we get upset in the conference tourney. I don't see that being too far fetched. But man...it's great to dream, and we have the kind of team that dreams are built on.

[UNT 90 Grad]

I'm no expert, but I'd think our OC schedule and how we fare against them drives some of this. If no big names want to play us, I'd think that makes it tougher to get that top 25 ranking because we don't have the opportunity to prove ourselves. Am I wrong?

[UNT90]

I'm no expert, but I'd think our OC schedule and how we fare against them drives some of this. If no big names want to play us, I'd think that makes it tougher to get that top 25 ranking because we don't have the opportunity to prove ourselves. Am I wrong?

Because, other than the preseason NIT, our OOC schedule is so weak, a top 25 ranking depends on getting to, and winning at least one game, in NY in the preseason NIT.

Rankings dong matter. Win the conference tournament and play for the NCAA tourney.

[MeanGreenMusic]

I think it's worth emphasizing that for just about every single game we play this season, we WILL have the best player on the floor. (By FAR, in most cases.) TMitch has got some D1 experience under his belt now, and says he's improved a lot over the summer. It's really crazy to think about the fact that last year he hadn't played a single game at the college level, and was not officially a part of the team until the 2nd semester, yet he was still pretty dominant.

Also, this team is HUNGRY. We may have been young last year, but Tony was devastated that we didn't win the tournament, and I'll be damned if CJ and JW aren't working like they have something to prove after letting their team down last year.

I think a Top 25 ranking at some point is very possible if we play like we are capable of playing. Look out.

[CMJ]

It almost totally depends on schedule. And glick1980 -- Murray State was in the top 10- 15 almost the entire season and still didn't make the Sweet 16. Advancing in the tournament is about as much about your draw (and how you match up) as how good you are.

[drex]

With a team of the caliber that we have coming up this season, the real question is will they play in front of 1,500 people early in the year and get down early over attendance? Even though we have a good product, it needs nurturing by the fan base. Also, don't look for any help from the Sun Belt referees this year, since we are leaving. If they make top 25 it will be a magnificent achievement.

[TheTastyGreek]

I'd put our odds of a top 25 ranking during the season at 5%, and even that is probably optimistic.

Get through OOC with no bad losses, 2 maximum, and start off on a tear during conference season... Get to something like 22 or 23 wins against 2 losses... And then there's a chance.

And, not knowing exactly who we've sold games to, I wouldn't be too sure of our ability to start out that hot.

Here's a thread that talks about what it takes to earn a ranking and how different it is compared to being a top 25 football team. Started it up because we made it to 13-2 back in 2010-11.

[TheTastyGreek]

Also... An NCAA tournament win (to say nothing of a Sweet 16 berth) is a very, very difficult thing. There are multiple BCS conference teams that have never won a single NCAA tournament game.

[BonfireBrian]

I'd put our odds of a top 25 ranking during the season at 5%, and even that is probably optimistic.

Get through OOC with no bad losses, 2 maximum, and start off on a tear during conference season... Get to something like 22 or 23 wins against 2 losses... And then there's a chance.

And, not knowing exactly who we've sold games to, I wouldn't be too sure of our ability to start out that hot.

Here's a thread that talks about what it takes to earn a ranking and how different it is compared to being a top 25 football team. Started it up because we made it to 13-2 back in 2010-11.

Your realistic opinion sucks. I say 100% chance of top 25 ranking, 75% chance of winning the national championship, 60% chance of going undefeated, 25% chance of being able to beat whoever wins the NBA Finals

[CMJ]

Your realistic opinion sucks. I say 100% chance of top 25 ranking, 75% chance of winning the national championship, 60% chance of going undefeated, 25% chance of being able to beat whoever wins the NBA Finals

[adman]

What are the chances? 50/50

What are the odds? No clue.

[Andrew]

Odds we are ranked in the top 25? 10 percent if we are lucky and win a majority of our games... Chances we are good enough to be a top 25 team but not get recognized... 100 percent.

[GRN-WHT]

Have to beat K-State and make it to NYC in the NIT to get any consideration. Don't make it to NYC-no chance.

[greenminer]

Some of you are drinking a strong Green koolaid.

[oldguystudent]

Also... An NCAA tournament win (to say nothing of a Sweet 16 berth) is a very, very difficult thing. There are multiple BCS conference teams that have never won a single NCAA tournament game.

Yeah, I was thinking that. As a graduate of both the Big West and now the Sun Belt, I've seen multiple 25-5 teams not get ranked and not even get bids. Until there are multiple years of winning and deep tourney runs a la Gonzaga, the realistic hope is "also receiving votes."

[Censored by Laurie]

I think our chances are a bit better than Murray's last season...no one nationally really knew Isaah Cannon at the start of last year. People know Tony Mitchell.

Rankings dong matter.

See Rick? It's not just me.

[UNTstormchaser]

The thought just occurred to me that if the main poll is a "coaches poll" as it is in football, then we'd have a pretty damn good shot. If the coaches that are voting in the poll are the same coaches scared to death of playing us, we might have a better chance than you think.

Can anyone confirm/deny the existence of a prominent coaches poll?

[greenminer]

We might not get ranked, but Tony will crack the top 15.

Chuck Norris round-houses his way to #18.

[TheTastyGreek]

The thought just occurred to me that if the main poll is a "coaches poll" as it is in football, then we'd have a pretty damn good shot. If the coaches that are voting in the poll are the same coaches scared to death of playing us, we might have a better chance than you think.

Can anyone confirm/deny the existence of a prominent coaches poll?

Just like football, there are two prominent polls: one voted on by AP sportswriters, and one run by ESPN/USA Today that receives ballots from 25 or 30 (don't remember the exact number) D1 head coaches.

[Green Lantern]

I know the orignal post was just posing the question on potential for a top-25 ranking, but a number of the responses seem very similar to last year's prediction threads. I think most of us have pretty lofty expectations for this year's team, but predicting NCAA tournament wins and Sweet 16 appearances is putting the cart way before the horse. Remember last year when a number of folks were predicting 25+ wins and thinking that we'd run rough shot through the Sun Belt?

The team is VERY talented and should be odds on favorite to win the Sun Belt. Lets focus on having a good showing in the Pre-Season NIT, then winning the Sun Belt and getting back to the NCAA tournament.

[UNT Five&Dime]

I know the orignal post was just posing the question on potential for a top-25 ranking, but a number of the responses seem very similar to last year's prediction threads. I think most of us have pretty lofty expectations for this year's team, but predicting NCAA tournament wins and Sweet 16 appearances is putting the cart way before the horse. Remember last year when a number of folks were predicting 25+ wins and thinking that we'd run rough shot through the Sun Belt?

The team is VERY talented and should be odds on favorite to win the Sun Belt. Lets focus on having a good showing in the Pre-Season NIT, then winning the Sun Belt and getting back to the NCAA tournament.

You, sir, get it.