How Vegas Sees 2012 Unfolding For Houston

[NTXCoog]

I thought Keenum looked human in the first half of our game last year and like a Heisman QB in the second. In fact that half was one of the best performances from a QB I have seen in a long time.

And amazingly, that game was only his 5th highest rated game last year for QB rating and 4th best for yardage.

The Marshall game was ridiculous. 24 of 28 for 376 yards and 6 TDs.

The 9 TDs and 534 yards vs Rice was pretty amazing too especially considering after 13:46 minutes in the 1st, he had a total of 26 yards passing and an INT. Plus he didn't play with 8 minutes left in the 4th. Basically 9 TDs in 2 1/2 quarters. How ridiculous is UH's history when 9 TDs in a game is 2 shy of tying the UH record for TDs in a game.

Doubtful Piland will put up numbers like those in any game this year, but he'll still have some of the best numbers in the country.

[greenminer]

I don't understand how you can acknowledge that your fast offense can mean your D tires out too fast, then say an opponent playing ball control doesn't make a difference for their defense.

All I'm saying is that clock-grinding offense gives your defense a rest. After that, it's still about executing the x-and-os. Coogs O is just amazing at that. Whether it is for 30 offensive snaps, or 70. That's why it (TOP) hasn't made much a difference with Houston.

Based on my observations of Houston in their losses, you have to find someway to take them out of their offensive rhythm.

1) Get to their QB early and often. This is so hard against them because they do such a great job using motion to dictate your defensive push and manipulate the attacking gaps.

If you can get your linemen to win the one-on-ones with them and make some stops, you might have actually have a lead to hang on to. this is where you need...

2) ball control. If you've got the lead late (i.e. < 8 minutes remaining), you can at least start to see them relying on the pass more and more. Give them less and less time to work with.

Even this is praying. I saw Keenum as a soph engineer a 4 TD comeback during the 4th against UTEP. It was one of the more amazing sequences I can ever remember seeing.

...that was long! You've probably heard all of this before. Sorry.

I think we're all at least somewhat curious (even for just one game) what the post-Keenum era will mean to you.

[NTXCoog]

I don't understand how you can acknowledge that your fast offense can mean your D tires out too fast, then say an opponent playing ball control doesn't make a difference for their defense.

All I'm saying is that clock-grinding offense gives your defense a rest. After that, it's still about executing the x-and-os. Coogs O is just amazing at that. Whether it is for 30 offensive snaps, or 70. That's why it (TOP) hasn't made much a difference with Houston.

Based on my observations of Houston in their losses, you have to find someway to take them out of their offensive rhythm.

1) Get to their QB early and often. This is so hard against them because they do such a great job using motion to dictate your defensive push and manipulate the attacking gaps.

If you can get your linemen to win the one-on-ones with them and make some stops, you might have actually have a lead to hang on to. this is where you need...

2) ball control. If you've got the lead late (i.e. < 8 minutes remaining), you can at least start to see them relying on the pass more and more. Give them less and less time to work with.

Even this is praying. I saw Keenum as a soph engineer a 4 TD comeback during the 4th against UTEP. It was one of the more amazing sequences I can ever remember seeing.

...that was long! You've probably heard all of this before. Sorry.

I think we're all at least somewhat curious (even for just one game) what the post-Keenum era will mean to you.

Maybe ball control works, but again, I've only seen 2 games where it really worked against UH and that was back when our run defense was one of the worst in the nation and one of them was the top rushing offense in the country and Keenum had his worst game in a Cougar uniform. Most of our closest games last season had UH with its best TOP games. The logic may be sound, but the results aren't there. Maybe the logic isn't sound because it is different than a normal offense. UH opponents' exhaustion isn't necessarily based on the grind of a run blockers wearing you out. That's traditionally why defenses get tired. But it's the no huddle where there is no chance for substitutions. Most plays are a pass so it's more of a running exhaustion than muscular exhaustion. If there are no big plays and a TD drive takes 10 plays, that can still take under 4 minutes. That's like being worn out from sprints instead of a marathon. Plus there's the mental exhaustion of defensive lineman. If you watch the TicketCity bowl, those Penn State lineman were considered some of the best pass rushers in the country. But seeing the ball come out of the QBs hand in under 3 seconds every time, the DLine gets frustrated from going all out over and over and not even coming close. They talked about how frustrated they were and it sometimes causes linement to stop rushing and just trying to get their hands up in passing lanes.

Maybe there are just too many chances for failure in ball control. You have to be able to guarantee 4 yards every play. If you don't, you have to punt and Houston scores. Do that a couple of times and you're behind by a lot and have to abandon ball control.

Post Keenum? We've heard the doom and gloom before. When Kevin Kolb was drafted in the 2nd round, all we heard was how UH would fall off the map. Now with Keenum leaving, again UH is going to fall off the map. I don't expect Piland as a sophomore to be as good as Keenum as a senior. Can Piland as a sophomore be as good as Keenum as a sophomore? Maybe so. And if so, that may mean another 5000 season. Keep in mind that Keenum's sophomore year he had a new head coach and a totally new offense to learn so it's not a totally different situation.

With UH's easy schedule this year, I think everyone is expecting 8-4 at the worst and the most common prediction is 9-3. If we get past UCLA which will be very tough, it's entirely possible to go undefeated in the regular season, but no one is going to predict that.

And yes some of these posts get long... But I think we're making interesting football arguments that can be too much for short snippets.

[Eagle1855]

Which, in my opinion, is neat that Texans signed him. That could be a great story one day..

Hope so. Some time on the practice squad can only help. Coaches have been impressed with him, but that kind of generic coach-speak is about all you get, this time of year.

Hope it works out for Keenum as it did for Arian Foster. Hoping that for Dunbar, too.

Lots of hope, these days.

[Eagle1855]

With UH's easy schedule this year, I think everyone is expecting 8-4 at the worst and the most common prediction is 9-3. If we get past UCLA which will be very tough, it's entirely possible to go undefeated in the regular season, but no one is going to predict that.

I'd guess @SMU and @ECU pose the toughest challenges to go undefeated in conference play for UH, but yeah; it's a pretty light schedule compared to ones in the past. Missing Southern Miss doesn't hurt.

Please hang 100 points on Texas State.

Edited June 23, 2012 by Eagle1855

[NorthTexan95]

The Houston QB David Piland played as a true freshman in 2010 after both Keenum and Cotton Turner got injured against UCLA. Terrance Broadway (now at ULaLa) started 1 game after the injuries, but Piland started the rest of the season.

So all we need to do is knock out their top two QB's ...

[ragpicker]

I am Ragpicker, and this is my first reply. I will be brief with my first comment and just say that I think we can beat Houston. I believe the series with them is tied right now, so a win would put us ahead again. Go Mean. More to follow.

[NTXCoog]

I'd guess @SMU and @ECU pose the toughest challenges to go undefeated in conference play for UH, but yeah; it's a pretty light schedule compared to ones in the past. Missing Southern Miss doesn't hurt.

Please hang 100 points on Texas State.

We're less concerned with SMU than we are @ECU and especially @Marshall. @Marshall is a tough place to play, especially late in the year. Last time we played there UH WR Patrick Edwards had one of the most gruesome sports injuries ever. If you haven't seen it, just search Youtube for it. I don't even like to think about it. It's amazing that he came back from that to be as productive as he was.

We're currently on a 6 game winning streak against SMU. In 2010 when we went 5-7, we blew them out 45-20 at SMU with Piland playing in only his 3rd game. I guess eventually SMU is going to get theirs, but I'm not sure this is the year. They have a new QB and they lost their entire OLine.

Texas State? We only beat them by 40 two years ago. I don't think anyone expects it to be close. If it becomes a blowout, I'm curious how our coach will handle it. Will he leave Piland in to get game reps? If so, it could get real ugly.

[Eagle1855]

Last time we played there UH WR Patrick Edwards had one of the most gruesome sports injuries ever. If you haven't seen it, just search Youtube for it. I don't even like to think about it. It's amazing that he came back from that to be as productive as he was.

Was watching the game live when it happened. Still makes me cringe.

SMU is an average-at-best team... which is why they are easy to overlook. They just seem to have a couple random games each season they decide to "get up" for, and you never really know which one that will be.

I went to the one at UH last year, however... and was glad to see UH put them away in the second half. I'll be rooting for the coogs in ever game except ours. ha

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

---Vegas lines are all about getting the same money to bet on both sides.... and not football reality... Houston is the bigger name here obviously ... so I say the line is too high, we may not win but we beat the 23 points.

Edited June 24, 2012 by SCREAMING EAGLE-66

[greenminer]

I am Ragpicker, and this is my first replay. I will be brief with my first comment and just say that I think we can beat Houston. I believe the series with them is tied right now, so a win would put us ahead again. Go Mean. More to follow.

Just caught this. Welcome to the board.

[UNT90]

---Vegas lines are all about getting the same money to bet on both sides....

And yet, the lines seem to bear out many more times than not.

A tribute to the American betting public?

[NTXCoog]

I am Ragpicker, and this is my first replay. I will be brief with my first comment and just say that I think we can beat Houston. I believe the series with them is tied right now, so a win would put us ahead again. Go Mean. More to follow.

UNT is still up by one because of its 6-2 domination in the 1940s and 1950s. Since then UH has won 4 out of 5 including the last 3. UNT's last win was in 1975.

[greenminer]

bump.