BIG DEAL OF A VOTE TODAY!

[KRAM1]

Folks, this is a BIG deal today in Wisconsin. No matter which side of the recall vote petition regarding Gov. Scott Walker you are on, the outcome will have far reaching significance well outside the state of Wisconsin. If Walker wins, watch other states move quickly to limit the power of public sector unions (this vote has nothing to do with private sector unions) in order to try to reign in costly benefits. And watch public sector union membership decline not only in Wisconsin but across the nation as well if Walker wins. If Walker loses, watch the clout of public sector unions climb. And, watch states be very cautious about trying to reign in public sector employment costs to help balance budgets, etc.Some see this as a proxy on Obama and big union. I am not so sure about that, but Obama has definitely steered clear of this fight and the national democratic party pulled money out of the race several weeks ago. Wisconsin, once a sure thing as any sure thing could be for the dems is now seen in play for the November elections...no matter who wins this recall vote, but even more so if the Walker folks win today. Hard to imagine Wisconsin being anything but a blue state, but even if it does stay blue in Nov. the fact that it is "in play" will cause Obama and the dems to spend time and money in a state that in the past was a sure "lock" for the Dems and saw little funds and energy spent there during a national race.

Anyway...this IS A BIG DEAL. If you are in any shape or form a political junkie, you don't want to miss seeing the returns tonight on TV. Personally, I will be glued to the TV watching as soon as the polls close in Wisconsin and they can start announcing the early voting returns.

It is going to be close...very close, I think and should come down to which side can turn out the vote in the greatest numbers. Everyone should be watching Wisconsin this evening...you can bet your bottom dollar that the White House is.....

[UNT90]

Folks, this is a BIG deal today in Wisconsin. No matter which side of the recall vote petition regarding Gov. Scott Walker you are on, the outcome will have far reaching significance well outside the state of Wisconsin. If Walker wins, watch other states move quickly to limit the power of public sector unions (this vote has nothing to do with private sector unions) in order to try to reign in costly benefits. And watch public sector union membership decline not only in Wisconsin but across the nation as well if Walker wins. If Walker loses, watch the clout of public sector unions climb. And, watch states be very cautious about trying to reign in public sector employment costs to help balance budgets, etc.Some see this as a proxy on Obama and big union. I am not so sure about that, but Obama has definitely steered clear of this fight and the national democratic party pulled money out of the race several weeks ago. Wisconsin, once a sure thing as any sure thing could be for the dems is now seen in play for the November elections...no matter who wins this recall vote, but even more so if the Walker folks win today. Hard to imagine Wisconsin being anything but a blue state, but even if it does stay blue in Nov. the fact that it is "in play" will cause Obama and the dems to spend time and money in a state that in the past was a sure "lock" for the Dems and saw little funds and energy spent there during a national race.

Anyway...this IS A BIG DEAL. If you are in any shape or form a political junkie, you don't want to miss seeing the returns tonight on TV. Personally, I will be glued to the TV watching as soon as the polls close in Wisconsin and they can start announcing the early voting returns.

It is going to be close...very close, I think and should come down to which side can turn out the vote in the greatest numbers. Everyone should be watching Wisconsin this evening...you can bet your bottom dollar that the White House is.....

Looks like the road map to the White House is firmly set for Romney.

Economy, Economy, Economy.

Let's just hope he is smart enough to follow it.

And really not that close, KRAM (assuming the exit polling is correct). Surprising in a state like Wisconsin.

Is this a sign of things to come for Pres. Obama?

Disclaimer: I have no idea of the political affiliation of this web site. It was the first thing to come up when I googled Wisconsin exit polling.

Edited June 5, 2012 by UNT90

[GreenMachine]

It is going to be close...very close, I think and should come down to which side can turn out the vote in the greatest numbers. Everyone should be watching Wisconsin this evening...you can bet your bottom dollar that the White House is.....

Yep, I think you are correct

[yyz28]

I agree that this vote today stripes the field. If a special interest group can manage to get a sitting Governor thrown out of office for enacting the reform policy he ran on in the first place, then we won't see anyone else willing to take on special interests in an effort to reform. ...if Walker and his Lt. wins, then I agree that other reform minded governors and politicians might take up some harder issues in their locals.

I'd be wary though, even though I hope you're right, of reading too much into how the outcome of this race impacts Obama. First, the majority of the state voted for Walker the first time. The majority voting block doesn't like to have a Minority overturn their will. Winning this recall has been an uphill battle for the left since the minute they started, and it was done more as a power play than an actual attempt to defeat walker. Unfortunately, this play is appearing to have backfired.

The question is will the Walker voters tie Obama to the attempt to thwart their will? ...he has been very careful and politically more prudent on this than he often is by staying WAAAAAY out of this fight. What this MAY do for Romney in Wisconsin is depress the left vote in November as a result of what will be viewed by many of the faithful as a major blow. That more than the tide of public opinion moving right will deliver Wisconsin to the Republican nominee should it occur.

Great post, KRAM!!!

[UNT90]

I agree that this vote today stripes the field. If a special interest group can manage to get a sitting Governor thrown out of office for enacting the reform policy he ran on in the first place, then we won't see anyone else willing to take on special interests in an effort to reform. ...if Walker and his Lt. wins, then I agree that other reform minded governors and politicians might take up some harder issues in their locals.

I'd be wary though, even though I hope you're right, of reading too much into how the outcome of this race impacts Obama. First, the majority of the state voted for Walker the first time. The majority voting block doesn't like to have a Minority overturn their will. Winning this recall has been an uphill battle for the left since the minute they started, and it was done more as a power play than an actual attempt to defeat walker. Unfortunately, this play is appearing to have backfired.

The question is will the Walker voters tie Obama to the attempt to thwart their will? ...he has been very careful and politically more prudent on this than he often is by staying WAAAAAY out of this fight. What this MAY do for Romney in Wisconsin is depress the left vote in November as a result of what will be viewed by many of the faithful as a major blow. That more than the tide of public opinion moving right will deliver Wisconsin to the Republican nominee should it occur.

Great post, KRAM!!!

I think it will not only surpress the left vote, but will galvanize the right vote in September.

Where this could really hurt Pres. Obama is if the Supreme Court boots health care in a couple of weeks. Back to back high profile losses for Pres. Obama and the democrat party just a couple of months before the conventions could turn the tide in a big way for Romney in the states that matter (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and a couple of others).

Pres. Obama has tried to stay far away from the Wisconsin vote, but that will cost him huge with the unions. Not in terms of donations (it's not like they have another pony to ride), but in terms of union workers staying home on election day. No one should underestimate the importance of this (Wisconsin governor's) election in the eyes of the unions.

[yyz28]

Well, you could be right. It will be hard to quantify until election day. I'm not sure if having Obamacare struck down, assuming that happens (and that's still a pretty big assumption - I've seen the courts do stuff that I never thought they would, including upholding McCain-Feingold(sp?)), is an automatic win for Romney's camp.

...they can still play the "despite our best efforts" game and may find some way that I can't predict to make a case based on it.

From June to November is a lifetime in Politics. It'll be interesting.

Scott's going to win, and I think rather big tonight though.

[UNT90]

Well, you could be right. It will be hard to quantify until election day. I'm not sure if having Obamacare struck down, assuming that happens (and that's still a pretty big assumption - I've seen the courts do stuff that I never thought they would, including upholding McCain-Feingold(sp?)), is an automatic win for Romney's camp.

...they can still play the "despite our best efforts" game and may find some way that I can't predict to make a case based on it.

From June to November is a lifetime in Politics. It'll be interesting.

Scott's going to win, and I think rather big tonight though.

Agree.

It will all come down to what the economy is like in November. Everyone should remember Carter had around a 10 point lead on Reagan at this point in 1980.

Things can change, and change quickly.

[UNTflyer]

The exit polls are going to be interesting.

Romney: 312

Obama: 226

[UNT90]

The exit polls are going to be interesting.

Romney: 312

Obama: 226

Interested to know how you arrived at these numbers.

Mind sharing?

[UNTflyer]

Interested to know how you arrived at these numbers.

Mind sharing?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_2,AK_6,FL_7,NH_3,MI_7,VT_2,ME_3,RI_2,NY_2,PA_3,NJ_3,DE_2,MD_2,VA_7,WV_6,OH_7,IN_7,IL_2,CT_2,WI_7,NC_7,DC_2,MA_2,TN_6,AR_6,MO_7,GA_7,SC_7,KY_6,AL_6,LA_6,MS_6,IA_7,MN_7,OK_6,TX_6,NM_3,KS_6,NE_6,SD_6,ND_6,WY_6,MT_7,CO_7,ID_6,UT_6,AZ_3,NV_7,OR_3,WA_2,CA_2

[UNT90]

FOX calls it for Waker and Kleefisch.

Walker leading by 20% of the vote with 25% of the vote counted.

could be a very big night for CONSERVATIVES.

[H-towngreen]

Big win

[UNTflyer]

CNN's exit poll said it was 50-50. Boy, did they blow that one.

Their exit polls also show Obama winning in November by a few percentage points.

Put Wisconsin in the Romney column.

[UNT90]

Interesting parallel.

Long time controlling party loses control of Governorship and state legislature. Incoming contolling party has votes to make decisions that the old controlling party vehemently opposes. Old controlling party reps flee the state instead of facing a vote that won't go their way.

Sound familiar? Think Texas 20 years ago. Not saying that Wisconsin wil become a Republican stallwart for the next 20 years, but the parallel is really interesting.

It makes me wonder what this means for the future state politics of Wisconsin.

Edited June 6, 2012 by UNT90

[Coffee and TV]

If only Wisconsin didn't have to battle those unions. Then they'd be able to double class sizes, cut teaching jobs, and close down schools like we did in Texas. Yeah, big win alright. Big win for corporate bigwigs.

[UNTflyer]

If only Wisconsin didn't have to battle those unions. Then they'd be able to double class sizes, cut teaching jobs, and close down schools like we did in Texas. Yeah, big win alright. Big win for corporate bigwigs.

Big win for taxpayers.

BTW, local school boards have the power to levy taxes to fund education. If the tax burden has been reduced at the state level, the local entity can make up for it.

I suggest you run for school board on the platform of raising taxes in order to continue to pay teachers for not doing their jobs.

[Censored by Laurie]

I suggest you run for school board on the platform of raising taxes in order to continue to pay teachers for not doing their jobs.

[yyz28]

Corporate Bigwigs? Because public sector unions can't hold the taxpayers hostage? Ok.

The most interesting thing about this is how wrong the polls were going into today. Who turned out would be what got my attention if I were advising Obama.

Great victory.

[UNTflyer]

As for public education, I'm all for sensible funding. Texas itself spends more per student ($8908/year) than Denmark, Norway, France, Italy, or Germany - who all beat the snot out of us in test scores.

What's the problem, because it sure as hell isn't money!!?? But liberals would have you believe conservatives hate education, which itself is just laughable.

[yyz28]

The issue can't be framed as a single problem, it is a multitude of problems.

Lack of parental involvement or, as the cartoon above somewhat accurately depicts, a lack of sense of responsibility or accountability by students and parents is a growing problem.

Teachers unions which protect bad teachers and collective bargaining contracts that protect weak teachers while disallowing the rewarding of good ones.

Up to 4 layers of fat between monies collected from taxpayers to actual spending directly on education (IRS, DOE, State Education Board, ISD) all of which has far more administrative and non teaching capacity than needed, and is often duplication of effort.

Parents don't have the option to get their kids out of failing schools, and failing schools have little to no motivation to improve.

Teaching has become focused on passing standardized tests, not gaining knowledge, practicing skills and learning.

...and that is just the tip of the iceburg.

[KRAM1]

Big win for sanity in Wisconsin last night. Regardless of Coffee & Tea's hyperbole, and his obviously out of sync view with the majority of those in Wisconsin, public sector employees in Wisconsin will not be standing in bread lines. They will still be some of the highest paid public employees in the nation and class sizes will not skyrocket upward. Local school boards still have the same controls they have had over this from the get-go. So, let's try to be at least somewhat factual when the claim of the "sky is falling" goes out. Madison, the ever very liberal Madison, was once again shocked...shocked...that the vast majority of the state does not share it's very liberal views. Amazing how these folks never learn.

This election is very easily the second most important election in 2012, and in this case and in my opinion, the good guys won this one...a blow for fiscal sanity! We should now watch what happens in a few other states facing this same situation. Anyone want to guess that the public union big wigs will be a tad more interested in negotiating in good faith right now????? Me thinks so.....

Now, does this put Wisc. in Romney's win column...not on your life at this point, but it does put Wisconsin in play for the first time in a long long time. While I personally think Obama holds on to Wisc. in Nov., this election will mean that the dems must spend big time in Wisc. and O will have to spend much more time and dollars in Wisc. to hold on to the state. What that does for the R's is to "free up" other battleground states for much easier "picking" in November. Make no mistake about it...this was also a big win for Romney and the R's, but it does not...no way...mean that "always dem" Wisc. will turn red in Nov. But, for the first time in a long time, the jury is out and the dems have much work to do and many dollars to spend.

Anyone notice that Obama was nowhere near this election and campaign? Gee, anyone want to speculate on why? Pretty obvious.

It was a great win for fiscal sanity everywhere last night and the win will have far reaching repercussions across the entire nation. SCORE ONE FOR THE "GOOD GUYS"!

[forevereagle]

...a lack of sense of responsibility or accountability by students and parents people is a growing problem.

Fixed.

[UNT90]

Fixed.

It takes a village?

Question. No answer.

[yyz28]

Fixed.

Yeah, good point...

[yyz28]

Now, does this put Wisc. in Romney's win column...not on your life at this point, but it does put Wisconsin in play for the first time in a long long time. While I personally think Obama holds on to Wisc. in Nov., this election will mean that the dems must spend big time in Wisc. and O will have to spend much more time and dollars in Wisc. to hold on to the state. What that does for the R's is to "free up" other battleground states for much easier "picking" in November. Make no mistake about it...this was also a big win for Romney and the R's, but it does not...no way...mean that "always dem" Wisc. will turn red in Nov. But, for the first time in a long time, the jury is out and the dems have much work to do and many dollars to spend.

It doesn't automatically put it in Romney's column, but I feel pretty good about Wisconsin after studying the exit polls last night. The Exit polls had the race as a virtual dead heat yet the election broke wide open for Walker. ...the exit polls also included a question about who voters will vote for in November - Obama only had a 1 point edge in that poll. ...figure the Exit polls were off for walker by 7 points, and then do some quick math. ...assuming the same skew on that question, you've got a 5-6 point Romney edge in the exit poll.

...Certainly not scientific, but it shows that the state is FRIMLY in play, and a wise betting man would be looking to more sure things when betting on the November election.

Spending by the left didn't get rid of Walker, and I don't think is going to swing large portions of voters from Romney at this point. Wisconsin is more politically aware and I think offers fewer undecideds than virtually any other battleground state at this point. It is going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.