Realignment running out of steam

[Harry]

We are now in year 28 of what should be called the modern era of intercollegiate athletics business. The Supreme Court set us down this path in 1984 ruling that the NCAA could no longer control regular season television.

Realignment didn’t immediately start because the players didn’t fully understand how things had changed. There were a few moves that started happening at the end of the decade but for the most part stability was still the word of the day. The Big 10 took Penn State and the SEC took Arkansas and South Carolina. Many would still look back on that and declare the creation of conference championship games was the big development. While the games gave a big revenue boost, the new market was still evolving.

TV networks operate under one of three models. 1) Advertiser supported. They get all their income from ad sales like local tv. 2) Subscription supported like HBO. You wish to see it, you pay the fee and there are no ads or very limited ads. 3) Hybrid. Channels that sell ads like a regular tv network but also charge a fee. ESPN charges a reported $4.96 a month per household receiving the network but they run tons of ads.

No one in the sports world or the TV world understood in 1999 that the DVR would make a dramatic change to college athletics. Seven years later in 2006 only about 1% of homes had a DVR but today there is a DVR in about half of all homes. That simple invention and its wide adoption has lead to the increasing speed of realignment.

The DVR has changed how people watch television. Now people record programs and skip commercials making commercials much less valuable. This has led to greater demand for televised sports. Very few viewers record sports and watch later skipping commercials so sports events command high ad prices. The NFL has only 256 regular season games. The NBA has 1200 games and MLB 2,430. College athletics fills the gap and in the case of college football it is more popular than the NBA or MLB.

FBS conferences are now jockeying to tap into this windfall of TV money. Before the DVR, realignment was happening but the pace was slower because the dollars were smaller. Now huge dollars are stake.

Read more: http://www.arkst.com/?p=1746

[GreenFlag]

Good read but realignment is not even close to being done. I would be shocked if CUSA retained it's current membership for more than 3 years. When (not if) we lose teams I just hope they are not regional and if they are I hope we backfill with regional.

My best guess on what will happen. The ACC stays intact. The SEC stops and the Big XII adds two from the Big East. Boise State and SDSU will find their way back to the MWC. The Big East football and basketball have a divorce and the football side shores up membership from the best available of what if left - Airport Meeting part deaux. The Big East will be the old CUSA. The new CUSA will be interesting hybrid blend that will take the historical WAC place in the pecking order, the SBC will still be the SBC like the MAC will still be the MAC.

Order will then be restored - for a little while.

The new have nots pecking order:

Conference formely known as Big East

MWC - without Boise State nothing much else here in football

CUSA 3.0

MAC

SBC - no offense SBC but you will have more teams moving to CUSA 3.0 to backfill those departing to the Big East

WAC - I know they are in hospice but it doesn't feel right to not mention them.

[JulesFIU07]

Good read but realignment is not even close to being done. I would be shocked if CUSA retained it's current membership for more than 3 years. When (not if) we lose teams I just hope they are not regional and if they are I hope we backfill with regional.

My best guess on what will happen. The ACC stays intact. The SEC stops and the Big XII adds two from the Big East. Boise State and SDSU will find their way back to the MWC. The Big East football and basketball have a divorce and the football side shores up membership from the best available of what if left - Airport Meeting part deaux. The Big East will be the old CUSA. The new CUSA will be interesting hybrid blend that will take the historical WAC place in the pecking order, the SBC will still be the SBC like the MAC will still be the MAC.

Order will then be restored - for a little while.

The new have nots pecking order:

Conference formely known as Big East

MWC - without Boise State nothing much else here in football

CUSA 3.0

MAC

SBC - no offense SBC but you will have more teams moving to CUSA 3.0 to backfill those departing to the Big East

WAC - I know they are in hospice but it doesn't feel right to not mention them.

If BSU and SDSU decide not to join the BE and Louisville bolts, I have to think that league folds. Look who you are left with. Cinci, Rutgers, UConn, Temple, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Houston and SMU. Based on last season that would make Houston your best team. If you are Houston, SMU, Memphis, UCF and USF coming back to C-USA makes more sense. Better strength of schedule, better geographical continuity, and no basketball schools to sbusidize.

Hopefully, if the BE folds, Cinci, Rutgers, UConn and Temple join the MAC, Navy goes independent, and the remaining schools join C-USA.

[shaft]

1984 was not the beginning of the "modern era" of college football. It was 1992 with the creation of 12-team SEC.

Just like the Cold War didn't end when Regan said to tear down the wall.

Also do you DVR football? Dollar to a donut most viewers like to watch live games.

[GreenFlag]

1984 was not the beginning of the "modern era" of college football. It was 1992 with the creation of 12-team SEC.

Just like the Cold War didn't end when Regan said to tear down the wall.

Also do you DVR football? Dollar to a donut most viewers like to watch live games.

That is the point he was making. It's one of the few "gotta watch live" programs on TV.

[GreenFlag]

If BSU and SDSU decide not to join the BE and Louisville bolts, I have to think that league folds. Look who you are left with. Cinci, Rutgers, UConn, Temple, Memphis, UCF, USF, Navy, Houston and SMU. Based on last season that would make Houston your best team. If you are Houston, SMU, Memphis, UCF and USF coming back to C-USA makes more sense. Better strength of schedule, better geographical continuity, and no basketball schools to sbusidize.

Hopefully, if the BE folds, Cinci, Rutgers, UConn and Temple join the MAC, Navy goes independent, and the remaining schools join C-USA.

Hopefully is the key word. Houston, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Cinci, UCF, USF, Rutgers, and UCONN could cherry pick whomever they wanted from CUSA, SBC, and MAC. Fact is existing CUSA membership are not thrilled about the new additions and would bolt with that group in a heartbeat. We would leave for that conference in a heartbeat.

Edited May 17, 2012 by GreenFlag

[SCREAMING EAGLE-66]

--- One item not mentioned which changed college football was the explosion of TV channels about 1980 once satellite communications became highly developed.. ESPN and CNN and many other channels soon appeared which changed things from the 1-2 games per weeks to the insane number that exist s now... That created a lot of revenue available to college football. That changed football a lot and increased interest. Wasn't long after that the conference switching began and grew rapidly. .

--- The NFL became very popular about 1960 for a similar reason after most people in the mid/late 50's got TV and actually could watch games and the group that started the AFL realized the potential and started it... which spread football all over America [ example; St. Louis was the closest team to Texas until then. ] The Cowboys were created in an vast NFL geographic vacuum [no southern NFL teams then or anything between St. Louis and LA.... plus were in the division with the densely populated market of NY, Philly and Washington.... so... they became America's team because of so much geographic area and their success. . TV then went to all color in mid 60's which made even more enjoyable and then the leagues merged. .

---The last item that changed sports some is the Internet that rapidly grew in the late 90's.... people could keep up with their favorites daily and do things like this board plus even play fantasy sports . All this explains why football sports salaries and income are so insane now compare to what they once were .... Teams are still chasing money and increased status... more than ever..

---I am old ..but no one in Texas paid much attention to the NFL when I was in school in the 50's and into very early 60's. College football got more attention [but not so much] because UT was being successful and people actually could see or go to college games.. In short ...football especially owes its popularity and success to improved technology as much as anything. Salaries in the NFL were pretty low even into the 60's.

Edited May 17, 2012 by SCREAMING EAGLE-66

[PlummMeanGreen]

Hopefully is the key word. Houston, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Cinci, UCF, USF, Rutgers, and UCONN could cherry pick whomever they wanted from CUSA, SBC, and MAC. Fact is existing CUSA membership are not thrilled about the new additions and would bolt with that group in a heartbeat. We would leave for that conference in a heartbeat.

I all but said the same thing about a week or so ago on the new conference formation part, so I suppose we really just need Boise and San Diego St to go Big East.

Some will just not want to come back to CUSA not neccessarilly because of the new members, but the schools who would come

back will feel like they are losing some face on this whole re-alignement ordeal if they came back and had to face CUSA

members who've been in CUSA a few years.

ADDENDUM:

North Texas just needs to bloom where planted, try not to worry what other schools are doing, too, because we only have control of what we can do but..................UNT Athletics needs to hire a fully staffed promotions department of proven performers elsewhere (and pleeezzzzzz------not another recycled department employee who has not one promotions clue what-so-ever) to get dramatically more numbers of new faces out to Apogee Stadium instead of preaching to the choir at various city gatherings putting that responsibility on and almost shaming the fans and alums who attended those meetings inasmuch that it was their fault for past attendance problems for crissakes'. Anyone with half a brain would know just how long that theme is going to play.

Then...........North Texas officials should take a rather quick trip to San Antonio (UTSA) for starters since they in one year schooled our entire UNT community on how to get a crowd out to a college football game---free tickets or no free tickets. For that to have happened as it did for UTSA, they had to have an athletic department juggernaut of a machine (if you will) to be able to get out whatever free tickets UTSA distriubuted to get 35K out to their games. In other words, they did much better in the ticket distribution part than our group did in our last game at Apogee Stadium last November when free tickets were "supposedly" being distributed (and most of you on this board know exactly what I mean on that one).

________________________________________________________________

Edited May 17, 2012 by PlummMeanGreen

[golfingomez]

my eyes hurt from looking at that last post...

[PlummMeanGreen]

More for your eyes, golfinggomez!

______________________________________________

DFW Metroplex: Almost 7,000,000 population

Denton County: Over 700,000 population

City of Denton: Approx. 120,000 population

2012 Expected Fall UNT Enrollment: Approx. 37,000 student

DFW North Texas Alumnus and Graduates Numbers: Over 200,000 according to one campus publication.

With the above numbers, will someone please tell the rest of us: What the hell we doing wrong at North Texas with our Game Day promotions with the only real new faces we see from year to year are the new faces we see from our record-breaking UNT Freshmen Class?

(BTW, if UNT Athletics haven't already had meetings, ie planning sessions on major Game Day promotions designed to get more of the masses out to Apogee for our 2012 season, then might be too late and may as well start on the 2013 season and please, please, please.............don't fall back on the old notion that "we don't have to promote 2013 at all because our new membership in CUSA will do all that..................uh, NOT (and especially not in DFW where you will not be able to count on a large part of our demographics of young parents who are doing their kids Soccer Day most all day on UNT's Game Days).

Proof of the Pudding With CUSA membership not filling Apogee? Just look at pics of our first game at Apogee and just how many red colored shirts were in the stands--then take all those red shirts out of the pic and see what I mean about how you have to complement all the good things happening at UNT with "get out the masses" promotions. Our fellow Metroplexer's have a thousand other things they can do on Game Day in the Metroplex and FWIW, most of them in DFW will have no idea our team is even playing at Apogee that same day since Game Day promotions seemed only reserved for the Denton Record-Chronicle or NT Daily.

Look at the bright side:

Of all the numbers listed at the top of this post, North Texas "only" needs approx, 32,000 out of all those numbers combined to get our stadium filled.

GMG!

Edited May 17, 2012 by PlummMeanGreen

[shaft]

Some will just not want to come back to CUSA not neccessarilly because of the new members, but the schools who would come

back will feel like they are losing some face

The Big East pays double what the MWC does, who pays more than the other mid-majors.

Teams aren't worried about losing face, they are worried about losing revenue.

[Mark Gommesen]

Outside of the five top leagues the options are drying up. A few years ago the ACC, Big 10, Big XII, Pac-10 and SEC made the most money. They were followed by the Big East. A gap existed between the Big East and CUSA/MWC that was about as large as the gap between the Big East and the top leagues. The gap between MWC/CUSA and Big East was about as large as the financial gap to the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt.

With the elimination of AQ in the BCS and the fact that the C-USA has expanded into large fast growing media markets, the C-USA could in a few years close the gap with the big east. The Big East is not scheduled to renegotiate it's television contract until September. C-USA needs to immediately negotiate new TV contracts and beat the Big East to the table.

C-USA has added a combination of established and emerging programs. Four of the five schools bring a market size ranked among the top 36 in the country and totaling over two million more TV households than the league held this past year. Now that ODU as committed that wll bring an additional 718,750 households, totally close to three million more TV households. Five of the six schools are in the fastest growing media markets. Four of the six schools are media markets without direct competition from other major Universities or Pro teams.

After realignment the C-USA increase the number of large media markets in markets and dramatically increase the number of television households. This author of this article misses this entire point; the C-USA has position itself for better long-term growth than any other conference. None of the other conferences have any room for growth, they have already saturated their markets. C-USA was clever enough to expand within it's hold geographical foot print, yet add new large media markets like San Antonio, Charlotte, Miami, and Norfolk and secure itself in the DFW market.

The C-USA is located in the fastest geographical region of the country. According to the US Census Bureau, from 2000 to 2010, regional growth was much faster for the South and West (14.3 and 13.8 percent, respectively) than for the Midwest (3.9 percent) and Northeast (3.2 percent).

While expanding, the C-USA avoided media markets dominated by the SEC or the ACC. After realignment, the C-USA loss Memphis and Orlando. Neither of which are major media losses. The Tennessee market is relatively small and is being dominated by the University of Tennessee and Vanderbilt both of the SEC. Similarly the Florida market is dominated by the ACC and the SEC.

The C-USA can offered television networks a conference that includes large rapidly growing media markets with a huge number of television households, in the fastest growing region in the country without offering any direct competition to the network's existing contracts with any of other large conferences. This is fricken brilliant!

Edited May 17, 2012 by Mark Gommesen

[Mark Gommesen]

More for your eyes, golfinggomez!

______________________________________________

DFW Metroplex: Almost 7,000,000 population

Denton County: Over 700,000 population

City of Denton: Approx. 120,000 population

2012 Expected Fall UNT Enrollment: Approx. 37,000 student

DFW North Texas Alumnus and Graduates Numbers: Over 200,000 according to one campus publication.

With the above numbers, will someone please tell the rest of us: What the hell we doing wrong at North Texas with our Game Day promotions with the only real new faces we see from year to year are the new faces we see from our record-breaking UNT Freshmen Class?

(BTW, if UNT Athletics haven't already had meetings, ie planning sessions on major Game Day promotions designed to get more of the masses out to Apogee for our 2012 season, then might be too late and may as well start on the 2013 season and please, please, please.............don't fall back on the old notion that "we don't have to promote 2013 at all because our new membership in CUSA will do all that..................uh, NOT (and especially not in DFW where you will not be able to count on a large part of our demographics of young parents who are doing their kids Soccer Day most all day on UNT's Game Days).

Proof of the Pudding With CUSA membership not filling Apogee? Just look at pics of our first game at Apogee and just how many red colored shirts were in the stands--then take all those red shirts out of the pic and see what I mean about how you have to complement all the good things happening at UNT with "get out the masses" promotions. Our fellow Metroplexer's have a thousand other things they can do on Game Day in the Metroplex and FWIW, most of them in DFW will have no idea our team is even playing at Apogee that same day since Game Day promotions seemed only reserved for the Denton Record-Chronicle or NT Daily.

Look at the bright side:

Of all the numbers listed at the top of this post, North Texas "only" needs approx, 32,000 out of all those numbers combined to get our stadium filled.

GMG!

The problem is not numbers but exposure. The more media coverage a team receives, the greater the attendance. We live in a media driven world. Yes, more needs to be done to promote UNT and this will happen. But, the key is the UNT must provide the market with a product it wants to buy. Joining the C-USA is a big part of that...higher level of competition...regional rivalries..greater national exposure...and yes MORE TELEVISION COVERAGE.

[outoftown]

Hopefully is the key word. Houston, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Cinci, UCF, USF, Rutgers, and UCONN could cherry pick whomever they wanted from CUSA, SBC, and MAC. Fact is existing CUSA membership are not thrilled about the new additions and would bolt with that group in a heartbeat. We would leave for that conference in a heartbeat.

I say that would be right, if it were only Football schools in the Big east they could find a consensus who to add and how that goes down regionally... but with all the basketball schools wanting part in the decision, it iss either split or fold for the football schools...and split is a lot more complicated that just adding in a functional conference. It takes longer and gives schools much more possibilities to back out and do something different. And if more than one of that group bolts, it is pretty much over.