Kenpom predicts Sun Belt

[KoldBeer]

Kenpom.com is a site that uses a bunch of numbers (points per possession, etc) to rank teams. On his blog he gives odds for each team to win the Sun Belt. I like his numbers to see how good a team is on offense or defense but I'm not really sold on his ability to predict winners. So for entertainment purposes only here is the Sun Belt (number is % to reach the next round - i.e. MTSU has 46.9% chance to win tournament)...

Sun Belt Conference

“You, too, can say no to divisional seeding”

March 3-6

All games at Hot Springs, AR

Qtrs Semis Final Champ

1 Middle Tennessee 100 85.5 71.8 46.9

3 Denver 100 85.6 68.4 36.8

2 Ark. Little Rock 100 60.7 17.3 5.0

5 North Texas 100 56.0 12.8 4.1

4 La. Lafayette 100 44.0 8.5 2.3

8 Fla. Atlantic 57.2 9.2 4.6 1.4

7 W. Kentucky 53.7 22.0 4.9 1.1

6 South Alabama 62.0 10.3 4.6 1.0

10 Florida Int'l 46.3 17.3 3.5 0.7

9 Arkansas St. 42.8 5.3 2.3 0.6

11 Troy 38.0 4.1 1.4 0.2

The Sun Belt has wisely ditched the divisional seeding format of previous seasons. Somehow, UALR beat out Denver for the two-seed. It’s season sweep of the Pioneers helped. Even so, this analysis has Denver as the heavy favorite to advance from that half of the bracket to the conference title game.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/log_5_part_3/

[glick1980]

So you're telling me there's a chance?

[drex]

I've been every year and I can tell you that unbelievable things happen on a neutral floor. I think we have just as good a chance as any of the teams.

[gksmith]

So you're telling me there's a chance?

4.1% but...yea!!!!

SELL THE FARM, GO TO VAGAS, BET IT ALL ON UNT TO WIN!

Why are the MTSU Blue Raiders blue? Choking.

[forevereagle]

SELL THE FARM, GO TO VAGAS, BET IT ALL ON UNT TO WIN!

Who is that?

[McKinneyMiner]

Who is that?

Stunning that he squirmed his way into a conversation about UNT basketball, but Vagas Ferguson was a Notre Dame halfback in the 1970's who was drafted in the first round of the 1980 NFL draft by the New England Patriots...

He then went on to a singularly undistinguished career...

I'm not sure why we are going to him, but he was one of my childhood heroes...

[McKinneyMiner]

Qtrs Semis Final Champ

1 Middle Tennessee 100 85.5 71.8 46.9

3 Denver 100 85.6 68.4 36.8

If I am reading this correctly, that site is basically saying there is an 83.7% chance that either MTSU or Denver wins the tournament, which seems a little high to me...

In fact, if someone were to approach me with a bet whereby they would take the 2 favorites and I would take the field I might have to put a few shekels in the box on that proposition...

I think there is a much higher chance than 16.3% that a team other than those two wins the tournament...

[bstnsportsfan3]

I agree....what ever u think will happen in neutral court basketball usually doesn't happen....hell who woulda thunk UALR would won last year?

[CMJ]

My odds are posted in another thread. Hint: MTSU wasn't nearly as heavy a favorite.

[GreenBat]

If I am reading this correctly, that site is basically saying there is an 83.7% chance that either MTSU or Denver wins the tournament, which seems a little high to me...

In fact, if someone were to approach me with a bet whereby they would take the 2 favorites and I would take the field I might have to put a few shekels in the box on that proposition...

I think there is a much higher chance than 16.3% that a team other than those two wins the tournament...

Kenpom don't know SHIT!!!

[gksmith]

Or Vegas...I was so excited I typoed.

[gksmith]

That 4.1% is looking pretty good right about now!!!!

My farm is riding one it!

[MeanGreenDan]

That 4.1% is looking pretty good right about now!!!!

My farm is riding one it!

Better than the 1.1%