Race for a Bye

[GrandGreen]

There are basically 6 teams vying for 5 byes. MT is a lock and will be the number 1 seed unless they lose out and UALR wins out, not likely. That leaves 5 teams going for the four other byes. ULL, Denver FAU, UALR and NT with NT having by far the hardest remaining schedule. The good news is that NT is in control and if they can win out would be assured the third seed and an outside shoot for the second seed. The question than becomes what happened if NT goes 2-1, 1-2 and NT is likely sunk.

NT is currently the fifth seed ahead of only FAU at 7-6. FAU plays at MT and at home against USA and a bad Troy team. Most likely they will go 2-1 and end up 9-7 which means that NT could lose a game and still be above FAU at 10-6. The problem is that if NT loses two games, FAU has the tie breaker and NT plays 4 games at Hot Springs. It is also not out of the question that FAU could beat a disinterested MTSU team.

Denver and ULL are both a half game up on NT, with both having two games left with ULM and NT. A miracle would have to happen for either team to lose to ULM, therefore I assume that both win against ULM. If NT beats Denver, they would win the tie breaker. If NT loses to Denver and both finish at 10-6, DU would have the tie breaker if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly because they have a win over MTSU. If NT loses to ULL, ULL wins the tiebreaker as they have beaten NT twice. If NT wins, head to head is tied, and it would go to the second tie breaker which could go down to record against UALR which NT would lose unless they beat UALR.

While it is possible to catch UALR with one more NT lost, it is highly unlikely. NT would have to beat UALR and they would have to lose both to Troy away or ASU at home.

In summary, if NT loses two they have a slim hope of a bye. IF NT goes 2-1, odds are good they will get a bye. Win all three and they are assured a third seed.

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[CMJ]

Thanks for the breakdown, I thought it was something like this. That FAU loss is definitely making things really tough.

Just need to worry about Saturday and go from there.

[NT03]

UALR has clinched at least the 5 seed already. The worst they can do is 10-6 , the best FAU can do is 10-6. UALR has the tiebreaker

Edited February 18, 2012 by NT03

[NT03]

A win vs Monroe ( very likely ) & Denver clinches a bye w/ a FAU loss ( very likely).

So that leaves us with only 2 spots left.

South Alabama still has a outside shot if they win out + UNT & FAU drop their last 3. Looking @ the schedules I'd say it wouldn't totally be out of the question for that to happen

A ULL win today & they claim the 3 seed as they would have the tiebreaker

Bad news : we have to go on the road vs Denver & UALR

Good news : both teams will have already secured their

byes & more than likely their seed by the time we roll into

town. The motivation might not be there for them.

The Trojans can do no better than the 2 seed & they may be able to clinch that with a win & ULL loss today

There will be no difference in having the 4 or 5 seed as they will be playing each other in the 2nd round

Just hope for a UNT & MTSU win today , which I think is. Likely

Edited February 18, 2012 by NT03