Good Analysis of New League Expansion

MCMLXXX · February 14, 2012

I hope this hasn't been posted elsewhere on the board.

http://espn1420.com/so-what-is-this-new-league-going-to-do-from-the-birds-nest/

GrayEagle · February 15, 2012

First of all, correct me if I'm wrong but I think that the author of this text. Mark Ferguson, is ArkStFan.

I think that he has mostly identified the players but I'm still not sure about their order of appearance. My opinion, and that's all it is, is that there will be 20 teams that will start the new conference in July of next year.

In addition to the 16 who are current CUSA and MWC members I would like to see the following added:

Temple

Temple is in the largest available market and would come for football only, balancing Hawaii. They had a horrible program for many years, even being kicked out of the Big East, but when coach Al Golden went there he turned their program around and it is continuing. Last year, they averaged nearly 30,000 (but I believe that they had a home game against Penn State to boost that average).

North Texas

Everyone on this board knows our strengths and weaknesses but the undeniable fact is market size makes up for our other shortcomings. That, and the fact that the administration is behind athletics and our budget increased to more than $22 million last year. Being 20 miles from the 3rd busiest airport doesn't hurt either.

San Jose State

I know, Utah State is the sentimental favorite but San Jose brings much more to the table in terms of market and even stadium-size and long-term power rating. On my all-time rating chart the Spartans are #86 and the Utags #92. Not much difference, but San Jose has been more competitive than Utah State. Another slight markdown is that the Aggies stadium only seats 25,500. Utah State should be in the next expansion round after this.

Louisiana Tech

Okay, by rights I should be listing FIU here, right. FIU does have the Miami market and still a good football program (for the last two years only) but little else. Their facilities, in spite of an on-campus stadium still smack of the FCS. More than that they are joined at the hip with Florida Atlantic and any addition should include FAU as well. La Tech has the highest all-time power rating of the possible additions (68) but they are in a remote (hard to get to) area. If Temple declines then I would add FAU and FIU for the numbers and get Louisiana Tech in the next round of expansion.

Although the ECU Chancellor indicated that the conference could eventually have 32 teams, I think that it stops at 24 and Florida Atlantic, Utah State, FIU, and Middle Tennessee should be the leading candidates for the final selections.

Edited February 15, 2012 by GrayEagle

NorthTexan95 · February 15, 2012

The author lost a lot of credence with me when he mentioned Denver. There's nothing new in the article and not a lot of depth.

Arkstfan · February 15, 2012

Yeah he was quoting me.

Denver being in play is reliable. The Alliance has approached them and investigated them. That's a long way from an invite. Remember Hawaii is football only. To balance things out there are two easy solutions. #1 You add a football only to the east #2 in the alternative you take a non-football school to fill the rest of Hawaii's spot in the west.

All the rumblings make it sound as if Temple has looked at the MAC and looked at the Alliance doesn't see Rice selling any more tickets in Philadelphia than Ball State and no significant benefits to football only in one over the other. They had at one time wanted Temple all-sports but once Memphis left any chance of that died.

I suspect that Temple understands that the Big East is likely to lose 2 to 6 more teams depending on what the Big 12 does and what the ACC does (or is forced to do if SEC successfully raids ACC in the future). I would also think they know that Air Force is less opposed to the Big East with Navy now in and knows that Air Force has made definitive statements the past 4 or 5 years that they will go independent if their conference goes to a 9 game schedule (they only have two dates to play with now playing 8 conference Army and Navy) and might approach the Big East if the Alliance goes to 9 games and the Big East would need a 14th team to balance them.

San Jose has the issue that Fresno despises them as much or more than Tech hates ULM. Nevada is by all accounts not a fan either (by way of an aside, if you take the CNN/Money cost of living calculator, adjusted for local costs, SJSU's budget is equal to ULM's).

While I expect LaTech to join the Sun Belt shortly, probably some time between now and Memorial Day, if the Alliance wants a football only in the East, it might well be Tech because of the potentials Tech has its other league ironed out. FIU might be willing to go that route but less likely.

NorthTexan95 · February 16, 2012

Yeah he was quoting me.

Denver being in play is reliable. The Alliance has approached them and investigated them. That's a long way from an invite. Remember Hawaii is football only. To balance things out there are two easy solutions. #1 You add a football only to the east #2 in the alternative you take a non-football school to fill the rest of Hawaii's spot in the west.

Ok, Denver does make some sense for them to look at. I always love reading your posts, Arkstfan. You always have a good take on a topic and good information.